1st Week of March 2020

Key Events to Watch Out For In March 2020: Date Country Event Forecast Previous 02-Mar-20   Australia Company Gross Operating Profits (Q.o.Q) (Q4) -3.50% -0.80%     China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 45.7 51.1   Germany German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 45.2 45.3   Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 47.8 47.9     U.K Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 49.8 50     U.S.A Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 50.8 51.9     U.S.A ISM Manufacturing Employment (Feb) 46.6 46.6     U.S.A ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 50.5 47.2 03-Mar-20   Australia Building Approvals (M.o.M) (Jan) 1.00% -0.20%     Australia Current Account (Q4) 2.3 B 7.9 B     Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Mar) 0.75% 0.75%     U.K Construction PMI (Feb) 46.6 48.4     South Africa GDP Annualized (Q.o.Q) (Q4) 0.10% -0.60%   Euro Zone Core CPI (Y.o.Y) (Feb)   1.10% 1.10%   Euro Zone CPI (Y.o.Y) (Feb)   1.20% 1.40%   Euro Zone CPI (M.o.M) (Feb)   -1.00% -1.00%   Euro Zone Unemployment Rate (Jan) 7.40% 7.40% 04-Mar-20   Australia GDP (Q.o.Q) (Q4) 0.40% 0.40%     Australia GDP (Y.o.Y) (Q4) 2.00% 1.70%     Japan Services PMI (Feb) 46.7 51   Germany German Retail Sales (M.o.M) (Jan) 1.00% -3.30%   Germany German Services PMI (Feb) 53.3 54.2   Euro Zone Markit Composite PMI (Feb) 51.6 51.3   Euro Zone Services PMI (Feb) 52.8 52.5     U.K Composite PMI (Feb) 52.4 53.3     U.K Services PMI (Feb) 53.3 53.9   Euro Zone Retail Sales (M.o.M) (Jan) 0.70% -1.60%     U.S.A ADP Non-farm Employment Change (Feb) 191 K 291 K     U.S.A Markit Composite PMI (Feb) 49.6 53.3     U.S.A Services PMI (Feb) 49.4 53.4     U.S.A ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 55.5 55.5 05-Mar-20   Australia Trade Balance (Jan) 4.800 B 5.223 B     U.S.A Non-farm Productivity (Q.o.Q) (Q4) 1.40% -0.20%     U.S.A Unit Labor Costs (Q.o.Q) (Q4) 1.40% 2.50%     U.S.A Factory Orders (M.o.M) (Jan) -0.30% 1.80% 06-Mar-20   Japan Household Spending (Y.o.Y) (Jan) -1.70% -4.80%     Japan Household Spending (M.o.M) (Jan) 0.20% -1.70%   Germany German Factory Orders (M.o.M) (Jan) 1.50% -2.10%     Russia CPI (Y.o.Y) (Feb) 2.50% 2.40%     Russia CPI (M.o.M) (Feb) 0.50% 0.40%     U.S.A Average Hourly Earnings (Y.o.Y) (Y.o.Y) (Feb) 3.20% 3.10%     U.S.A Average Hourly Earnings (M.o.M) (Feb) 0.30% 0.20%     U.S.A Non-farm Payrolls (Feb) 178 K 225 K     U.S.A Private Non-farm Payrolls (Feb) 160 K 206 K     U.S.A Trade Balance (Jan) -47.20 B -48.90 B     U.S.A Unemployment Rate (Feb) 3.60% 3.60% 09-Mar-20   Japan Current Account n.s.a. (Jan) 0.417 T 0.524 T 10-Mar-20   China CPI (M.o.M) (Feb) 0.80% 1.40%     China CPI (Y.o.Y) (Feb) 4.90% 5.40%     China PPI (Y.o.Y) (Feb) 0.10% 0.10%   Euro Zone GDP (Q.o.Q) (Q4) 0.20% 0.10%   Euro Zone GDP (Y.o.Y) (Q4) 1.20% 0.90% 11-Mar-20   U.K Manufacturing Production (M.o.M) (Jan) 0.50% 0.30%     U.K Trade Balance (Jan) -10.00 B 0.85 B     U.S.A Core CPI (Y.o.Y) (Feb) 2.20% 2.30%     U.S.A Core CPI (M.o.M) (Feb) 0.20% 0.20%     U.S.A CPI (M.o.M) (Feb) 0.20% 0.10%     U.S.A Federal Budget Balance (Feb) -11.5 B -33.0 B 12-Mar-20   India CPI (Y.o.Y) (Feb) 7.40% 7.59%     U.S.A Core PPI (M.o.M) (Feb) 0.10% 0.50%   Euro Zone Deposit Facility Rate (Mar) -0.50% -0.50% 13-Mar-20 Germany German CPI (M.o.M) (Feb) -0.60% -0.60%     U.S.A Export Price Index (M.o.M) (Feb) -0.10% 0.70% 16-Mar-20   China Fixed Asset Investment (Y.o.Y) (Feb) 5.20% 5.40%     China Industrial Production (Y.o.Y) (Feb) 5.90% 6.90%     India WPI Inflation (Y.o.Y) (Feb) 2.92% 3.10% 17-Mar-20   U.K Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jan) 3.00% 2.90%     U.K Unemployment Rate (Jan) 3.80% 3.80%     Germany German ZEW Current Conditions (Mar) -10.3 -15.7     U.S.A Core Retail Sales (M.o.M) (Feb) 0.30% 0.30%     U.S.A Retail Sales (M.o.M) (Feb) 0.30% 0.30%     U.S.A JOLTs Job Openings (Jan) 7.000 M 6.423 M 18-Mar-20   Japan Exports (Y.o.Y) (Feb) -6.90% -2.60%     Japan Trade Balance (Feb) -1,694.9 B -1,313.2 B     South Africa Core CPI (M.o.M) (Feb) 0.30% 0.10%     South Africa CPI (M.o.M) (Feb) 0.30% 0.30%     U.S.A Housing Starts (Feb) 1.425 M 1.567 M 19-Mar-20   Japan National Core CPI (Y.o.Y) (Feb) 0.80% 0.80%     Australia Employment Change (Feb) 10.0 K 13.5 K     South Africa Interest Rate Decision (Mar) 6.50% 6.25% Source: Investing.com)

Weekly change & technical levels NSE/BSE/MSEI March Futures Currency pair LTP Wk  % change R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2 USDINR 72.40 1.07 72.7083 72.9867 72.2292 71.9508 71.4717 EURINR 79.94 3.20 80.7467 81.6333 79.2183 78.3317 76.8033 GBPINR 93.34 1.19 93.8817 94.4208 93.0608 92.5217 91.7008 JPYINR 66.67 4.27 67.6117 68.5383 65.8358 64.9092 63.1333   Currencies against the US dollar Currency pair LTP Wk  % change R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2 DOLLAR INDEX 98.12 -1.23 99.1867 100.253 98.5733 97.5067 96.8933 EURUSD 1.1038 1.75 1.1126 1.1215 1.0965 1.0876 1.0715 GBPUSD 1.2823 -1.08 1.2985 1.3148 1.2855 1.2692 1.2562 USDJPY 107.90 -3.32 110.553 113.206 109.026 106.373 104.846   Foreign exchange reserves   21 February 2020 Weekly change Total reserves $476.092 billion by $2.763 Important highlights German Ifo Business Climate Index improved to 96.1 in February from 96 in January. Economic sentiment in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose to 103.5 points in February compared to 102.6 in January, continuing a steady upward trend since October. Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected to 219,000 in the latest week from a revised 211,000 the previous week. Canada Q4 GDP annualized 0.3% as compared to 0.3% expected, Q3 was 1.3% annualized (revised to +1.1%) December GDP m/m +0.3% China’s official PMIs in February: manufacturing 35.7 (expected 45.0) non-manufacturing 29.6 (expected 51.0). US January advance goods trade balance -$65.5B as compared to previous was -$68.3B (revised to -$68.7B). US Q4 GDP (second reading) was at +2.1% as compared to +2.1% expected. Advance reading was +2.1%, while for the previous quarter was +2.1%. Canada’s Q4 current account balance stood at -$8.76bn vs -$8.96bn expected, the previous figure was -$9.86B. Eurozone February final consumer confidence stood at -6.6 as compared to the prelim reading of -6.6. US durable goods orders for January (P) declined -0.2%, previous month’s figure was revised to 2.9% from 2.4% previously reported. India's gross domestic product expanded by 4.7% during Q3 FY2020 compared to 4.5% in the previous quarter. Concerns about the coronavirus pandemic may derail global economic growth led to a speculative jumped in the USDINR pair last week. It jumped towards 72.5075, the highest level since 1 September 2019 and settled with a gain of 1.05%. The pair hit six-month high on Friday, as concerns about coronavirus griped global markets leading to overseas outflows from local stocks and debt. Local stock indices crashed, heading for the worst week since 2008 tracking sell-off in global markets. However,  the US dollar fell by 1.20%, after its worst day against the euro in nearly two years, as the coronavirus fired up expectations for a US rate cut and crude oil prices plunged nearly 15%, the biggest slump in a 1 6 December 2018, which has capped the upside momentum in the pair. Technically, as per last week’s outlook, the USDINR pair found support around 71.75 and jumped towards 72.5025. On the weekly chart, the pair is trading on the verge of a symmetrical triangle resistance and break above 72.55, We will cause bullish momentum towards the next resistance of 72.8–73.00. However, following the recent speculation of a Fed rate cut next month, we may witness US dollar some weakness, this may capped upside momentum in USDINR pair too. On the downside, only a break below 71.65 will cause selling pressure, and the pair may retreat towards immediate support of 71.35–71.20 levels. The drastic fall in the US dollar supported the EUR last week, The currency gained more than 1.75% against the dollar and jumped more than 3% against the rupee. The euro also get support, as investors cheered the strong Eurozone economic sentiment data, The Eurozone economic sentiment improved more than expected in February led by increased confidence among consumers and in industry, according to European Commission data released on Thursday. On the weekly chart, buy strategy given around 77.80 was proven accurate and the EURINR pair jumped towards 80.1050, hitting both predicted levels of 78.30–78.65. A strong pullback from the crucial support of 77.50 and the formation of long bullish candlestick on the chart, is still indicating for bullish momentum in near future. Now, 80.15 will act as a massive resistance, and a break above 80.15 will lead to a further gain in the pair, and the next upside target is expected to be at 80.55–80.85. Alternatively, a failure to break this level could create a probability for a momentum correction toward the immediate support of 79.45–78.80. The pound was able to gain 1% against the rupee last week, and settled at 93.35 as compared to the previous week’s close of 92.24. The rupee weakened nearly 1%, which has supported the recent recovery in the GBPINR pair, it was also supported by stronger-than-expected consumer confidence data for February and the fastest annual gain in house prices since August 2018. However, the pound remained weak against the dollar and dropped more than 1%, on Brexit uncertainties. Crucial trade talks are due between the UK and EU next week, while UK government continues to maintain a tough stance. Investors anticipate that the negotiations may last through the end of the year. Markets remain increasingly concerned over a possible no-deal Brexit at the end of 2020 owing to some defiant rhetoric from both the UK and EU. Technically, Since 22 December 2019, the GBPINR pair is consolidating above the support of 92.10 and is struggling to break the immediate resistance of 94.50. Hence, in the near future, the pair may trade in the above range, unless the pair witnesses a break on either side. Alternatively, any rise towards 93.60–93.70 will lead to selling pressure, as worries over deteriorating EU-UK relations ahead of critical trade talks due this week may hold the pound under pressure.  The Japanese yen witnessed a speculative jump against the dollar and rupee last week, as it surged more than 3.30% and 4.20%, respectively. An abrupt bullish momentum was noted in the yen after a heavy sell-off in global markets as the risk appetite worsened following the World Health Organization's comment that the coronavirus outbreak has the potential to become a pandemic and is at a decisive stage. The coronavirus, originating in China, spread worldwide as the number of cases in countries like Japan, South Korea, Italy, Iran and the US rose considerably. Adding to that, the greenback faltered against major counterparts as investors now expect US Federal Reserve to lower its benchmark lending rate next month. On the weekly chart, the JPYINR pair failed to sustain below its crucial support 64.20 and jumped towards its January 2020 high. The formation of a long bullish candlestick on the chart is still indicating a bullish momentum in the near future and any temporary correction towards 65.60–65.80 is expected to attract buying activities in the near future. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 65.20 and a break below could lead to selling pressure and it may test next support of 64.80–64.35. Date Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Impact 02.03.20  7:15am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 46.1 51.1 Negative   8:30pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 50.5 50.9 Negative 03.03.20 6:00am AUD Building Approvals m/m 1.10% -0.20% Positive   9:00am AUD Cash Rate 0.75% 0.75% Neutral     AUD RBA Rate Statement - - - 04.03.20 6:00am AUD GDP q/q 0.40% 0.40% Neutral   6:45pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 170K 291K Negative   8:30pm CAD BOC Rate Statement - - -     CAD Overnight Rate 1.75% 1.75% Neutral     USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.1 55.5 Negative 05.03.20 6:00am AUD Trade Balance 4.80B 5.22B Negative   All Day All OPEC Meetings - - -   10:30pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks - - -   11:15pm CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks - - - 06.03.20 6:00am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.00% -0.50% Neutral   7:00pm CAD Employment Change - 34.5K -     CAD Trade Balance - -0.4B -     CAD Unemployment Rate - 5.50% -     USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.30% 0.20% Positive     USD Non-Farm Employment Change 185K 225K Negative     USD Unemployment Rate 3.50% 3.60% Negative   Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Tickerplant *DOS- Depends on statement. DOV- Depends on Votes. DOR- Depends on Report. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. 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