1st Week of February 2020 - Weekly BSE Gainers, NSE Gainers & Losers Stock Market Report

Weekly change & technical levels NSE/BSE/MSEI February Futures Currency pair LTP Wk  % change R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2 USDINR 71.56 0.31 71.8400 72.1200 71.5200 71.2400 70.9200 EURINR 79.07 0.42 79.3300 79.5900 78.9900 78.7300 78.3900 GBPINR 93.87 0.54 94.2133 94.5567 93.8567 93.5133 93.1567 JPYINR 65.74 1.01 66.1267 66.5133 65.8133 65.4267 65.1133   Currencies against the US dollar Currency pair LTP Wk  % change R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2 DOLLAR INDEX 97.36 -0.54 97.9233 98.4867 97.6367 97.0733 96.7867 EURUSD 1.1088 0.56 1.1123 1.1157 1.1056 1.1022 1.0955 GBPUSD 1.3202 0.97 1.3280 1.3359 1.3127 1.3048 1.2895 USDJPY 108.34 -0.84 108.970 109.600 108.630 108.000 107.660   Foreign exchange reserves   24 January 2020 Weekly change Total reserves $466.693bn up $4.53mn Important highlights: China's official manufacturing PMI index came in at 50.0 for January, in line with market expectations while the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 54.1, higher than estimates of 53.5. Unemployment rate in the Eurozone fell to 7.4% in December from 7.5% in November. US new home sales slipped 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 694,000 units last, with sales in the south dropping to more than a one-year low. US durable goods orders for December were up 2.4%, as compared to the previous figure of -2.1%, which was revised to -3.1%. US Federal Open Market Committee left its benchmark rate unchanged in the range of 1.5% to 1.75%. US goods trade gap, which had dropped for three straight months due to declining imports, surged 8.5% to $68.3 billion last month. German Ifo Business Climate Index came in at 95.9 in January, weaker than previous month's 96.3 and missing the market estimates of 97.0. Eurozone manufacturing PMI data, released on Friday, stood at 47.8 beating expectation of 46.8 while the services PMI was lower than anticipated at 52.2 in January. Annual house price growth jumped to a 14-month high this month in the UK. Property values across the UK were 1.9% higher than a year earlier, marking the strongest annual growth since November 2018, when it was also at 1.9%. USDINR (February Futures) LTP Sell around 1st target 2nd target Stop-loss 71.54 71.50-71.60 71.20 70.90 71.88 The USDINR pair retreated from the weekly high of 71.80 and settled at 71.56. Earlier in the week, the pair had a momentum gain as the US dollar remained in demand against the rupee and other Asian currencies, after the Federal Reserve did nothing to signal any near-term easing of policy despite issuing a statement that was seen as slightly less confident about the economic outlook. On Friday, the pair dropped to the day’s low of 71.46 on selling by exporters ahead of the Union Budget. However, crude oil prices surged by 1.3% after the World Health Organization (WHO) said it had confidence China could control the virus outbreak. Technically, as per the last week’s outlook, the USDINR pair was able to test the first predicted target of 71.60. The weekly price action resulted in the formation of a high-wave candlestick, which is indicating a volatile to range-bound trend in the near future. On the upside, 71.85 will act as a massive resistance and only a break above will open the door for the next upside target 72.05. Alternatively, the pair is expected to correct towards 71.20–70.90 again. DOLLAR INDEX The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, settled at 97.36 as compared to the previous week’s close of 97.89. The dollar weakened against major counterparts on Friday, paced by losses against safe-haven currencies like the yen amid fears of a global pandemic as Chinese health authorities showed little sign they have a grip on the outbreak. From a technical standpoint, on the weekly chart, the dollar index trading on the verge of the Raff regression channel support of 97.30, and a break below this level will indicate a probability for a bearish momentum. In the near future, the dollar index is expected to break its next support of 96.80 and may test 96.50. On the upside, crucial support is seen at 97.30 and a break below this level is expected to test the next support of 96.80–96.50. EURINR February Futures LTP Sell around 1st target 2nd target Stop-loss 79.07 79.30 78.65 78.20 79.55 The EURINR pair retreated from the weekly high of 79.20 and dropped towards 78.91 before closing at 79.05. The euro came under pressure against the rupee and US dollar on account of increased safe-haven buying in the greenback, as risk appetite suffered following the rise in coronavirus-related deaths and as disappointing Eurozone PMI data and deterioration in the German Ifo economic data led the common currency lower. However, the fall in the pair remained capped and the pair found some support after the unemployment rate in the euro area ticked down in December. On the weekly chart, since 12 January 2020, the EURINR pair is consolidating around 79.50–78.60 and forming an indecisive candlestick. In the near future, the pair is expected to trade in the above range unless there is a break on either side. On the downside, a break below 78.60 would confirm the downside target of 78.20–78.00. Alternatively, any rise towards 79.30 may provide a selling opportunity with a stop-loss above 79.65. GBPINR February Futures LTP Buy around 1st target 2nd target Stop-loss 93.87 93.30-93.40 93.90 94.30 92.88 The GBPINR pair witnessed a gain of 0.54% last week and settled at 93.87 as compared to the previous week’s close of 93.37. The pound surged on Thursday in the wake of the Bank of England's decision to keep rates steady, with outgoing Governor Mark Carney saying a cut would have risked inflation rising above the central bank's target. The pound, meanwhile, ticked up after consumer confidence hit a 16-month high in January, on the day that the UK formally leaves the EU. Technically, the formation of a high-wave candlestick on the weekly chart is indicating that the GBPINR pair will have an indecisive trade in the. However, since 22 December 2019, the GBPINR pair is consolidating above the support of 92.20, which is indicating for bullish momentum in the near future unless the pair closes below it. On the downside, a break below 92.40 only will create probability for a correction towards next support of 91.80–91.50. High impact economic data & events scheduled during the week       Date Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Impact 03.02.20  7:15am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51 51.5 Negative   8:30pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.5 47.2 Positive 05.02.20 3:15am NZD Employment Change q/q 0.30% 0.20% Positive     NZD Unemployment Rate 4.20% 4.20% Neutral   5:45pm EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks - - -   6:45pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 150K 202K Negative   8:30pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.1 55 Neutral 06.02.20 1:30pm EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks - - - 07.02.20 7:30am NZD Inflation Expectations q/q - 1.80% -   7:00pm CAD Employment Change - 35.2K -     CAD Unemployment Rate - 5.60% -     USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.30% 0.10% Positive     USD Non-Farm Employment Change 160K 145K Positive     USD Unemployment Rate 3.50% 3.50% Neutral Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Tickerplant *DOS- Depends on statement. DOV- Depends on Votes. DOR- Depends on Report.Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. )

AS EXPECTED, THE RBI KEPT THE POLICY RATE UNCHANGED AND MAINTAINED THE POLICY STANCE “ACCOMMODATIVE”. GDP GROWTH ESTIMATES FOR FY21 IS PROJECTED AT 6%; IN THE RANGE OF 5.5– 6% IN H1 FY-21 & 6.2% FOR Q3 FY-21Monetary Policy: RBI maintains status quo and keeps the policy rate and stance unchanged as expected, given near term concerns about inflation.  RBI's Monetary Policy Committee in its last credit policy for FY21 decided to keep interest rates unchanged, thereby extending a pause in its current rate-easing cycle. All MPC members voted in favour of the status quo decision. MPC also decided to continue with the ‘accommodative’ stance as long as it is necessary to revive growth. MPC stated that there is policy space for rate cuts in the future. However, the outlook for near-term inflation remains uncertain at this juncture and economic activity continues to remains subdued. RBI maintained that some of the high-frequency indicators have shown green shoots of economic recovery. However, it would like to wait for more incoming data to gauge the sustainability of the recovery. MPC estimates India’s GDP to grow at 6% in FY21. With a range of 5.5 to 6.0% in the first half of FY-21 and 6.2% for Q3 FY-21. Key highlights of the policy MPC revised its CPI inflation projection upwards to 6.5% for Q4 FY-20 and 5.45% for the first half of FY-21. It also revised the projection for Q3 FY-21 to 3.2%, with risks broadly balanced. RBI, in an attempt to speed up credit flows, announced that banks will be given a Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) relief on incremental auto loans, retail housing loans and all micro, small and medium enterprise loans. Relief on CRR will be applicable on loans given between 30th Jan’20 and 31st July’20 RBI has extended the one-time restructuring scheme for loans to MSMEs till 31st Dec’20. GST registered companies whose MSME accounts are in default as on 1st Jan’20 will be eligible for the one-time restructuring. The recast scheme was initially announced in January last year. Commercial real estate sector: RBI has decided to extend the restructuring of project loans by a year. It will permit restructuring of project loans for commercial real estate, delayed for reasons beyond the control of promoters, by another one year without downgrading the asset classification.View: RBI’s decision was not surprising given the current growth-inflation dynamics, as the economic activity continues to be subdued and near-term outlook on inflation remains uncertain. We expect RBI to be on pause for a longer time (till Q2FY21); however, there might be space for future monetary policy action once inflationary pressure ebbs. Debt markets were expecting a status quo on the policy rate but MPC’s progrowth comments have improved the market sentiment. Yields on the 10-year benchmark G-Sec fell by ~4 bps at 6.47% (one-month low) after the monetary policy announcement. We recommend investment in high-quality AAA oriented short-term and banking & PSU debt funds. Fresh investment in the short to medium term is recommended with a 2 to 3 year investment horizon. Disclaimer: This document is STRICTLY for authorized recipients only and is prepared for information purposes only. The information provided herein, we believe, is from reliable sources. IndiaNivesh is not liable for the accuracy of the source data as well as the results of the calculations based on the same. We do not claim that the data provided herein is accurate and complete in all respects. This is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell securities. No action is intended to be taken by therecipients based on this document. The recipients may take their decisions based on their own judgement and independent advice that they may receive before making any investment or disinvestment decisions. The recipients are advised not to take any decision only on the basis of this document. No portion of this document should be printed, reprinted, redistributed, reproduced, duplicated or sold.)