4th Week of February 2020

Daily change & technical levels Scrip Close Change (%) R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 GOLD 42666 1.49 43135 42901 42555 42321 41975 SILVER 48304 0.85 48800 48552 48341 48093 47882 CRUDE 3859 -1.15 3948 3903 3852 3807 3756 NG 137.40 -2.62 141.90 139.70 136.70 14.50 131.50 ALUMINI 137.95 0.44 139.40 138.70 137.60 136.90 135.80 COPPER 430.25 0.02 433.10 431.70 429.70 428.30 426.30 LEADMINI 143.45 -1.24 146.15 144.80 143.95 142.60 141.75 NICKEL 932.30 -0.94 939.20 935.80 931.50 928.10 923.80 ZINCMINI 162.60 -1.51 166.10 164.40 163.20 161.40 160.20 DIAMOND 3592.95 -0.19 3605.90 3599.40 3595.00 3588.50 3584.00 STEELLONG 31770 0.32 31890 31830 31760 31700 31630   Comex division Bullions Last close Change (%) Gold $1645.95 1.57 Silver $18.46 0.75   Base metal inventory Scrip Inventory Change Alumni 1150775 -11525 Copper 164850 -1575 Lead 66725 +0 Nickel 224766 +3840 Zinc 75475 +875 * Closing rates of 21 Feb & LME stock of 21 Feb BULLION Gold and silver prices skyrocket on spreading coronavirus and poor global economic data. Trend firm. Review On Friday, gold and silver prices settled on a positive note in international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,645.95 per troy ounce, up by 1.57%, while silver March futures settled at $18.46 per troy ounce, up by 0.75%. Domestic markets also settled on a positive note. Gold settled at Rs42,666 per 10 grams with a gain of 1.49%, and silver settled at Rs48,304 per kilogram with a gain of 0.85%. Gold and silver prices skyrocketed on Friday due to the coronavirus spreading to other countries and poor global economic data released during the week. Gold prices crossed $1,645 per troy ounce and silver also crossed $18.40 per troy ounce. Gold prices reached to fresh seven-year high in international markets, while the metal made a lifetime high at MCX. Poor economic data released from the US and Japan pushed global equity markets lower and supported safe-haven buying in precious metals. We expect prices of both precious metals to remain firm and the buy-on-dip strategy will still work next week. Gold has support at $1,632–1,624 and resistance at $1,654–1,666. Silver has support at $18.30–18.18, while resistance is at $18.55–18.80. Today, gold has support at Rs42,321–41,975, while resistance is at Rs42,901–43,135. Silver has support at Rs48,093–47,882, while resistance is at Rs48,552–48,800. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. ENERGY Fear of coronavirus and Russia’s delay in announcing further output cut push crude prices lower. Trend volatile Review On Friday, crude oil settled on a negative note in international markets as WTI crude settled at $53.44 per barrel, while Brent settled at $58.45 per barrel. Domestic markets also settled on a weaker note at Rs3,859 per barrel with a loss of 1.15%. Crude oil prices slipped on Wednesday, as the coronavirus spread to other countries and Russia has not yet agreed for a further production cut. Russia is in no rush to announce its position on additional cuts proposed by OPEC, as nothing urgent is happening in the oil market and there are two more weeks until the scheduled ministerial meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC countries, energy minister Alexander Novak said. Plans for an earlier, mid-February meeting to mitigate a drop in oil prices caused by the coronavirus outbreak were formally canceled late Wednesday as Russia, among other countries, was not convinced of the need to deepen production cuts as proposed by an OPEC+ advisory committee. We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile this week and if they slips below $52 per barrel, it could show further weakness in the coming days. Crude oil has support at $52.70–52.20 and resistance at $54.00–54.40. Crude oil has support at Rs3,807–3,756, while resistance is at Rs3,903–3,948; traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. BASE METALS Base metals trade sideways as global metal is demand hit by coronavirus. Trend volatile. Review On Friday, base metals settled on a mixed note in international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,763.00 per metric ton with a gain of 0.42% from the previous close. Base metals traded sideways on Friday despite weakness in dollar index. Base metals were unable to sustain at higher levels amid as the spreading coronavirus impacted global demand. “This is the biggest demand shock since the financial crisis, and until we see China getting back to work, the virus will be the main focus,” said head of commodity strategy Saxo Bank. US business activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors stalled in February. Global equity markets plunged again, and we expect base metals to trade sideways; the sell-on-rise strategy will still work this week. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs428–426, while resistance is at Rs432–433. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs916–948, zinc should trade in the range of Rs160–166, lead should trade in the range of Rs141–146, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs135–140. Copper has support at Rs428 and Rs426, while resistance is at Rs432 and Rs433; traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. AGRI COMMODITIES Agricultural commodities are in strong bear grip due to lower demand and record rabi output. Trend volatile. Review On Thursday, agricultural commodities extended the fall on the hope of record rabi crop production and fear of slower global demand from coronavirus. The record domestic production in the rabi season and the demand shock from the coronavirus will continue to impact domestic agricultural commodities. However, Bursa Malaysia KLC settled positive. The soybean March futures settled on a slightly positive note in the domestic markets at Rs3,868 per quintal with a gain of 0.10%. CBOT settled at 888 cents. The other agricultural commodities settled on a mixed note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a loss of 1.19%, while castor seed futures settled with a loss of 0.51%. RM seed April futures closed with a gain of 0.55%. Guar seed settled with a loss of 0.05%, and guar gum also settled with a loss of 0.15%. The spices pack settled on a mixed note; coriander and jeera settled positive while turmeric settled negative. Cotton seed oilcake March futures closed negative with a loss of 1.60%. Refined soy oil March futures closed positive at Rs809. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs798–818. Soybean has support at Rs3,830–3,800, while resistance is at Rs3,900–3,920. Refined soy oil has support at Rs802–798, while resistance is at Rs814–818. Traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. 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Board of Directors of Thomas Cook (India) Ltd. has approved the proposal for buyback by the Company of its own fully paid-up equity shares of Re. 1/- each not exceeding 2,60,86,956 Equity Shares (being 6.90% of the total paid-up equity capital of the Company) from the equity shareholders of the Company at a price of Rs. 57.50.Takeaway As per shareholding data available in FY 2018-19 annual report, acceptance ratio comes around 20% for retail shareholders.**Retail shareholders are classified as the one’s who hold shares of market value upto 2 lakhs on the record date. Other Information about the Buyback • The Entire procedure might take approximate 3 months.• Record date for the buyback is 7th March 2020• The Promoters and Promoter Group of the Company have communicated their intention ‘Not to participate’ in the Buyback. Disclaimer: Investment in securities market / Mutual Funds are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.)