The week kicked off on an extreme pessimistic note for the domestic markets following the plunge in world indices. The world markets corrected sharply on fears that the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China were on the verge of failure. As a result, the index Nifty spot remained in under pressure during all the sessions of the week to lose more than (-3.5%). Meanwhile the Nifty Bank index too lost more than (-3.0%) during the week. In this process, we witnessed heavy selling in individual stocks and that was reflected in volatility index VIX which surged more than 9% to close at three years high. On the sectoral front, none of the group indices managed to close in green. From the losers the NIFTY METAL (-6.77%) and NIFTY ENERGY (-6.48%) counters were the biggest laggards.
Finally the range of 11550 – 11800 was breached decisively and the impact of the same was already witnessed where Nifty sneaked below 11300. In the coming week, 11200 might act as an intermediate support for the index since even the intraday charts looks exhausted. If the support is held then we expect a short covering move in the index. In such scenario, 11350 – 11550 might act as strong resistance for the index in the coming week. Traders can watch out to play for the bounce on the upside above11350. Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 10-MAY-2019
BULLION Gold sees some safe haven buying due to selloff in global equities. Trend volatile Review Yesterday, both the precious metals were traded mixed in international markets. Gold settled at $1285.20 per troy ounce up by 0.26% while silver settled at $14.77 per troy ounce down by 0.70%. Domestic markets were also settled mixed. Gold settled at Rs.31916 per 10 gram with the gain of 0.73% and MCX Silver settled at 37398 per 1 kilogram with the loss of 0.01%. Gold prices sees some safe haven buying in yesterday’s trade due to selloff in global equities after U.S. President Donald Trump announce to raise tariff on $200 billion Chinese imports. Global equities are in panic sell from last two trading session as trade tension escalates between world’s two biggest economies. Dollar index also gain but unable to limit gains in gold prices. We expect gold remain positive and expected to cross key resistance of $1292. Gold is having support at $1278-1272 and resistance at $1292-1300. Silver is having support at $14.64-14.48 while resistance at $14.88-15.05. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Today, Gold is having support at 31733-31549 while resistance at 32075-32233, silver is having support at 37266-37135 and resistance at 37550-37703. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
ENERGY Crude oil settled lower; market is expecting trade deal between US-China. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, Crude oil prices settled slightly lower in international market WTI Crude settled at $61.70 while Brent settled at $70.41 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled negative at 4327 per barrel with the gain of 0.16%. Crude oil prices shows very high volatility this week as prices shows recovery after EIA reported lower inventory this week but at the same time give knee jerk reactions after U.S. increase import tariff in China. Yesterday’s market trades in a range before settling below $62 levels. Experts are having hopes for trade resolution between US-China after U.S. President Donald Trump says he receive “Beautiful Letter” from Chinese President Xi-Jinping. Trump quoted the letter as saying: "Let's work together let's see if we can get something done. Investors have feared that a protracted tariff war would harm global economic growth. We expect on the hope of possible trade resolution market will react positively in today’s trade and will test resistance of $62.50. Crude oil is having support at $61.40-60.80 and resistance at $62.50-63.10. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Crude oil is having support at 4289-4251 while resistance at 4359-4391, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
BASE METALBase metals show some recovery on hope of trade deal between US-China. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, base metal prices settled mixed in international market. 3M LME copper settled at $6141 per metric ton up by 0.10% from previous close. Base metal prices slips in early trade yesterday but prices shows some recovery in late evening session on the hope of trade deal between US-China. As president Donald Trump says he receives “Beautiful Letter” from Chinese president Xi-Jinping. Trump quoted the letter as saying: "Let's work together let's see if we can get something done. Prices of copper and other metals retreated on Thursday, hit by the potential for escalating trade tensions as the United States and China prepare to resume talks to resolve their long-running trade conflict. We expect base metal prices remain volatile and only positive outcome on trade deal will support prices. Today, Copper is having support around 428-424 while resistance at 434-437. Nickel will trade in a range of 814-848, Zinc will trade in a range of 212-218, and Lead will trade in a range of 127-132 while Aluminium trade in a range of 145-150.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Copper is having support at 428 and 424 while resistance at 434 and 437, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
AGRI COMMODITYWeakness in INR supports agriculture commodities; trade tension limits gain. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, Soybean settled positive in domestic markets at 3700 per quintal with the gain of 0.30%. CBOT were settled at 811. Soybean prices shows strength in domestic markets and test 3720 due to weakness in rupee as escalating trade tensions between US-China putting pressures on CBOT. We expect 3740 will remain key resistance for soybean and only sustain above will give further rally else test support of 3640 again. Spices pack shows strength on the hope of rising Indian exports due to escalating trade disputes between various countries. We expect agriculture commodities remain volatile. Other Agriculture commodities at NCDEX shows mixed trend, Chana settled with the gain of 2.74%, Castor seed settled positive with the gain of 0.82%. RM Seed closed positive with the gain of 0.32%. Guar Seed settled negative with the loss of 0.52% while Guar Gum settled with the loss of 0.02%. Spices pack settled positive Coriander, Jeera and Turmeric give solid comeback. Cotton seed oilcake closed positive with the gain of 0.52%. Investors are suggested to book profit in Cotton Seed oilcake around 2600-2620. Refined Soyoil closed positive with the gain of 0.14%. We expect Refined Soyoil to trade in a range of 732-748.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Soybean is having support around 3670-3640 while resistance at 3720-3740, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 734-732 while resistance at 746-748 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news.
Click here to download the ReportDisclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 13-MAY-2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELSCROSS CURRENCY UPDATESUSDINR 29 MAY ,2019 EXPIRY OPTION UPDATETECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRUSDINR (May Future)Dollar/rupee extended its recent gain and after testing day high 70.1950 settled at 70.1075 levels as concerns over escalating trade tension between the US-China supported safe haven demand for the dollar. Now, investors nervously await the start of two-day trade talks in Washington due later in the day to see if Chinese negotiators can convince the White House to back down on a threatened tariff hike due today. Local stocks ended at fresh two-month lows, their seventh straight session of decline also weighed on sentiment.Technical, On the EOD chart, USDINR continued its recent bullish move. It jumped towards 70.1950 and formed a long bullish candle stick. Near term momentum looks positive following the recent breakout on the chart and next upside target expect to be 70.50 and above. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 69.80-69.55.Trend –Neutral to positive
GBPINR (May Future)Pound/Rupee remained under pressure on reports Brexit negotiation between the UK Conservatives and Labour parties may have collapsed. Both the Conservatives and Labour are attempting to agree on how the UK should leave the European Union (EU) - but with little signs of success. Reports showed that Labour Party negotiators have described the government as being disingenuous the matter of a customs union. Labour Party made the entry into a customs union as a red line, and according to reports, the Government is yet to move on the matter.Technical, Since, 9 April 2019 GBPINR struggling to break its massive resistance 91.70 and consolidating in between 91.50-90.50 levels. In near term 91.70 will act as a massive resistance which is coincided with triangle resistance and break above will create probability for 2-3% sharp bullish move. Failure of the break only could witness consolidation towards 90.70-90.50 again.Trend –Bullish above 91.70
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today
US goods trade deficit with China decreased 16.2 percent to $20.7 billion, the lowest level since March 2014, also as imports from the world's No. 2 economy fell 6.1 percent. Exports to China jumped 23.6 percent in March.
US Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 228,000 for the week ended May 4, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Data for the prior week was unrevised.
US producer price index for final demand increased 0.2 percent last month after jumping 0.6 percent in March. In the 12 months through April, the PPI increased 2.2 percent, matching March's rise.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negativeindicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Source - investing.com, Reuters,forexlive & ticker news.Click Here to Download the ReportDisclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)
Weekly BSE & NSE Gainers & Losers - 6th May to 10th May 2019
MARKET RECAP AND OUTLOOK
The week kicked off on an extreme pessimistic note for the domestic markets following the plunge in world indices. The world markets corrected sharply on fears that the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China were on the verge of failure. As a result, the index Nifty spot remained in under pressure during all the sessions of the week to lose more than (-3.5%). Meanwhile the Nifty Bank index too lost more than (-3.0%) during the week. In this process, we witnessed heavy selling in individual stocks and that was reflected in volatility index VIX which surged more than 9% to close at three years high. On the sectoral front, none of the group indices managed to close in green. From the losers the NIFTY METAL (-6.77%) and NIFTY ENERGY (-6.48%) counters were the biggest laggards.
Finally the range of 11550 – 11800 was breached decisively and the impact of the same was already witnessed where Nifty sneaked below 11300. In the coming week, 11200 might act as an intermediate support for the index since even the intraday charts looks exhausted. If the support is held then we expect a short covering move in the index. In such scenario, 11350 – 11550 might act as strong resistance for the index in the coming week. Traders can watch out to play for the bounce on the upside above11350. Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions.
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Daily Commodity Research Report – 10th May 2019
BULLION Gold sees some safe haven buying due to selloff in global equities. Trend volatile Review Yesterday, both the precious metals were traded mixed in international markets. Gold settled at $1285.20 per troy ounce up by 0.26% while silver settled at $14.77 per troy ounce down by 0.70%. Domestic markets were also settled mixed. Gold settled at Rs.31916 per 10 gram with the gain of 0.73% and MCX Silver settled at 37398 per 1 kilogram with the loss of 0.01%. Gold prices sees some safe haven buying in yesterday’s trade due to selloff in global equities after U.S. President Donald Trump announce to raise tariff on $200 billion Chinese imports. Global equities are in panic sell from last two trading session as trade tension escalates between world’s two biggest economies. Dollar index also gain but unable to limit gains in gold prices. We expect gold remain positive and expected to cross key resistance of $1292. Gold is having support at $1278-1272 and resistance at $1292-1300. Silver is having support at $14.64-14.48 while resistance at $14.88-15.05. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Today, Gold is having support at 31733-31549 while resistance at 32075-32233, silver is having support at 37266-37135 and resistance at 37550-37703. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. ENERGY Crude oil settled lower; market is expecting trade deal between US-China. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, Crude oil prices settled slightly lower in international market WTI Crude settled at $61.70 while Brent settled at $70.41 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled negative at 4327 per barrel with the gain of 0.16%. Crude oil prices shows very high volatility this week as prices shows recovery after EIA reported lower inventory this week but at the same time give knee jerk reactions after U.S. increase import tariff in China. Yesterday’s market trades in a range before settling below $62 levels. Experts are having hopes for trade resolution between US-China after U.S. President Donald Trump says he receive “Beautiful Letter” from Chinese President Xi-Jinping. Trump quoted the letter as saying: "Let's work together let's see if we can get something done. Investors have feared that a protracted tariff war would harm global economic growth. We expect on the hope of possible trade resolution market will react positively in today’s trade and will test resistance of $62.50. Crude oil is having support at $61.40-60.80 and resistance at $62.50-63.10. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Crude oil is having support at 4289-4251 while resistance at 4359-4391, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. BASE METALBase metals show some recovery on hope of trade deal between US-China. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, base metal prices settled mixed in international market. 3M LME copper settled at $6141 per metric ton up by 0.10% from previous close. Base metal prices slips in early trade yesterday but prices shows some recovery in late evening session on the hope of trade deal between US-China. As president Donald Trump says he receives “Beautiful Letter” from Chinese president Xi-Jinping. Trump quoted the letter as saying: "Let's work together let's see if we can get something done. Prices of copper and other metals retreated on Thursday, hit by the potential for escalating trade tensions as the United States and China prepare to resume talks to resolve their long-running trade conflict. We expect base metal prices remain volatile and only positive outcome on trade deal will support prices. Today, Copper is having support around 428-424 while resistance at 434-437. Nickel will trade in a range of 814-848, Zinc will trade in a range of 212-218, and Lead will trade in a range of 127-132 while Aluminium trade in a range of 145-150.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Copper is having support at 428 and 424 while resistance at 434 and 437, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. AGRI COMMODITYWeakness in INR supports agriculture commodities; trade tension limits gain. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, Soybean settled positive in domestic markets at 3700 per quintal with the gain of 0.30%. CBOT were settled at 811. Soybean prices shows strength in domestic markets and test 3720 due to weakness in rupee as escalating trade tensions between US-China putting pressures on CBOT. We expect 3740 will remain key resistance for soybean and only sustain above will give further rally else test support of 3640 again. Spices pack shows strength on the hope of rising Indian exports due to escalating trade disputes between various countries. We expect agriculture commodities remain volatile. Other Agriculture commodities at NCDEX shows mixed trend, Chana settled with the gain of 2.74%, Castor seed settled positive with the gain of 0.82%. RM Seed closed positive with the gain of 0.32%. Guar Seed settled negative with the loss of 0.52% while Guar Gum settled with the loss of 0.02%. Spices pack settled positive Coriander, Jeera and Turmeric give solid comeback. Cotton seed oilcake closed positive with the gain of 0.52%. Investors are suggested to book profit in Cotton Seed oilcake around 2600-2620. Refined Soyoil closed positive with the gain of 0.14%. We expect Refined Soyoil to trade in a range of 732-748.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Soybean is having support around 3670-3640 while resistance at 3720-3740, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 734-732 while resistance at 746-748 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news. Click here to download the ReportDisclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
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Daily Currency Research Report – 10th May 2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELSCROSS CURRENCY UPDATESUSDINR 29 MAY ,2019 EXPIRY OPTION UPDATETECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRUSDINR (May Future)Dollar/rupee extended its recent gain and after testing day high 70.1950 settled at 70.1075 levels as concerns over escalating trade tension between the US-China supported safe haven demand for the dollar. Now, investors nervously await the start of two-day trade talks in Washington due later in the day to see if Chinese negotiators can convince the White House to back down on a threatened tariff hike due today. Local stocks ended at fresh two-month lows, their seventh straight session of decline also weighed on sentiment.Technical, On the EOD chart, USDINR continued its recent bullish move. It jumped towards 70.1950 and formed a long bullish candle stick. Near term momentum looks positive following the recent breakout on the chart and next upside target expect to be 70.50 and above. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 69.80-69.55.Trend –Neutral to positive GBPINR (May Future)Pound/Rupee remained under pressure on reports Brexit negotiation between the UK Conservatives and Labour parties may have collapsed. Both the Conservatives and Labour are attempting to agree on how the UK should leave the European Union (EU) - but with little signs of success. Reports showed that Labour Party negotiators have described the government as being disingenuous the matter of a customs union. Labour Party made the entry into a customs union as a red line, and according to reports, the Government is yet to move on the matter.Technical, Since, 9 April 2019 GBPINR struggling to break its massive resistance 91.70 and consolidating in between 91.50-90.50 levels. In near term 91.70 will act as a massive resistance which is coincided with triangle resistance and break above will create probability for 2-3% sharp bullish move. Failure of the break only could witness consolidation towards 90.70-90.50 again.Trend –Bullish above 91.70 Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today US goods trade deficit with China decreased 16.2 percent to $20.7 billion, the lowest level since March 2014, also as imports from the world's No. 2 economy fell 6.1 percent. Exports to China jumped 23.6 percent in March. US Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 228,000 for the week ended May 4, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Data for the prior week was unrevised. US producer price index for final demand increased 0.2 percent last month after jumping 0.6 percent in March. In the 12 months through April, the PPI increased 2.2 percent, matching March's rise. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negativeindicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Source - investing.com, Reuters,forexlive & ticker news.Click Here to Download the ReportDisclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)