Weekly BSE & NSE Gainers & Losers - 4th Feb to 8th Feb 2019.




It was a high volatile action packed week wherein the index Nifty spot surpassed the much awaited zone of 11000 but eventually failed to close above the same. During the week, Nifty registered high of 11118 but ended flat near 10950 mark. Despite the decent rally there was too much pressure on the broader markets which indicates strong index management. On the other hand, even NIFTY BANK index remained quiet even after a surprise rate cut in RBI’s monetary policy. The above kind of behaviour indicates that markets are facing headwinds at higher levels due to lower participation.

Technically, we have been constantly warning about the strong hurdle between 11100 – 11200 zone. Now, Nifty has formed a ‘Doji’ candlestick pattern right at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous move as displayed above. If we club Friday’s black candle then together both can be construed as an “Evening Star” pattern which is a reversal one. Thus, going ahead a fresh upside could be expected only above 11118 mark. On the downside, breach of 10925 level would trigger fresh selling in the market which could drag the index towards 10800 mark. We continue to maintain ‘Stay Light’ stance on the market since the heavy weights are yet to correct.


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Share Market Today - 7th February 2019

MARKET RECAP                                                                                                       KEY MARKET DATA POINTS After a wait of more than three months; finally we witnessed the much awaiting breakout in our benchmark indices. The index Nifty at last managed to rip-off the strong and psychological hurdle of 11000 mark on closing basis. After a positive opening, Nifty gained momentum and closed near day’s high with a mammoth gain of around 130 points. Meanwhile, Nifty Bank index underperformed the benchmarks with marginal gains ahead of the RBI monetary policy. Despite the markets closing with heavy gains, market breadth still remained slightly in the favour of declining counters and that is still a cause of concern. On the sectoral front, none of the group indices closed in red. Amongst them Nifty MEDIA (+4.07%), NIFTY METAL (+2.34%) and NIFTY PSU BANK (+1.42%) stocks were the biggest gainers. From the F&O space, DISHTV (20.95%), SRF (10.12%) and SUZLON (+9.72%) were the top performers. MARKET OUTLOOK The given above daily chart of Nifty depicts that the index finally managed to confirm a range breakout from the ‘Triple Top’ pattern which we have been discussing. Also, the index managed to close well above the same and this is a sign of further strength. Going ahead, nifty is poised to test upside levels of 11084 – 11145 in the coming sessions. However, we still believe that 11100 – 11200 could be a tough zone of the bulls and thus we need to wait and watch. In addition, we have a major event coming up i.e. The RBI policy and BANKNIFTY has been an underperformer since past few sessions. Thus, we would advise traders to wait for any confirmation post the policy in order to create any fresh positions. In case of any downside, 10960 would act as an intermediate support below which there could be some profit booking. Disclaimer)

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IIP Growth at 0.5%, base effect takes a biteNOVEMBER IIP HIT BY UNFAVORABLE BASE EFFECT. FESTIVE SEASON INVENTORY RESTOCKING LAST YEAR LED TO LARGE UPTICK IN MANUFACTURING INDEX Industrial activity slowed down drastically in the month of November rekindling the risks to economic growth momentum. The IIP growth for November was recorded at a meagre half percent as compared to 8.4% in the previous month and 8.5% in November 2017. IIP which hit a 12-month high in just the preceding month dropping to 17-month low has further highlighted the volatility of this high frequency indicator. The slowdown in IIP was on the back of significant deceleration in manufacturing activity. The Manufacturing sector contracted by 0.4% in November as the strong unfavourable base effect set in. Just to highlight the base impact, it would be essential to state that November last year witnessed an 840bps rise in manufacturing index in one month. November last year had seen significant pick up in manufacturers activity to restock inventory for the festival demand especially when the inventory stocks were utilised just before the GST implementation. Manufacturing accounts for 78% in the IIP index and thus remains a significant mover for the index. Within the manufacturing sector, it was the chemicals, metals products, pharmaceuticals, rubber products, electrical equipment, motor vehicles, etc which weighted down heavily on the IIP movement. Mining sector also saw deceleration in growth to 2.7% from 7.2% in previous month while electricity grew by 5.1% in November as compared to 11% in previous month. Amongst the highest contributors to IIP were electricity, diesel, sunflower oil, mining and cement while the drags were metal items, such as copper, steel, iron items etc. As per the Use Based classification, both capital goods and intermediate goods saw a deceleration in November with a de-growth of -3.4% and 4.5% respectively. Consumer durables which have had a good run since the start of the FY19 dipped by 0.9% in November. View The IIP growth for the period of April to November stands at 5%. The sub-optimal growth of 0.7% in Apr-Nov period in Intermediate goods has been a major drag. Considering the pick up in the base in the previous year, IIP momentum is expected to slow down a little at least statistically. The same momentum is expected from the GDP growth in the second half. As the growth is expected to take a little breather and inflation to remain in the comfort zone, it gives a bigger reason for the central bank to stay on the path of neutral stance with a bias towards easing. Which would make a case for long duration investing, however the recent bearishness on account of fiscal pressures and oil price rebound may continue to impact the yields in the short term. It would be prudent to have a staggered approach of investing. Investors with higher risk appetite can take advantage of the high yields in the credit risk space through funds having a diversified and well spread out portfolio. Investors may also selectively look at NCDs, Bonds, Tax-free bonds, etc to complement their debt portfolio.Disclaimer: This document is STRICTLY for authorised recipients only and is prepared for information purposes only. The information provided herein, we believe, is from reliable sources. IndiaNivesh is not liable for the accuracy of the source data as well as the results of the calculations based on the same. We do not claim that the data provided herein is accurate and complete in all respects. This is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell securities. No action is intended to be taken by the recipients based on this document. The recipients may take their decisions based on their own judgement and independent advice that they may receive before making any investment or disinvestment decisions. The recipients are advised not to take any decision only on the basis of this document. No portion of this document should be printed, reprinted, redistributed, reproduced, duplicated or sold.)

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