Weekly BSE & NSE Gainers & Losers - 29th Apr to 3rd May 2019

IMPORTANT HIGHLIGHTS Germany's IFO said on Wednesday that the business climate index fell from a revised 99.7 points in March to 99.2 points in April, when the market was expecting a rise to 99.9. US initial jobless claims registered 230,000, up 37,000 from the previous week's revised level, the Department of Labour reported on Thursday. Japan unemployment rate rose to 2.5%, against economists' median forecast for 2.4%, figures from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed. European Commission said a flash estimate showed euro zone consumer morale decreased to -7.9 this month from -7.2 in March. US gross domestic product registered a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2% growth in the first three months of 2019, above expectations for a reading of 2.0% and an increase from 2.2% in the final three months of last year. Japan Industrial output in January-March tumbled 2.6% the biggest decline since April-June 2014. Bank of Japan keeps deposit rate at -0.1%, keeps 10-yr yield target around 0%, maintains promise to buy JGBs at 80 tln yen annual pace. Japan CPI, which includes oil products but excludes volatile fresh food costs rose to 0.8% In February, annual core consumer inflation hit 0.7 percent. US new home sales surged 4.5% in March compared to 2.5% fall expected by market participants. WEEKLY CHANGE & TECHNICAL LEVELSNSE/BSE/MSEI May Futures Currency agsint U.S. DollarForeign Exchange reserves, in Billion $----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dollar/rupee witnessed 0.77% it biggest weekly gain since 6 January 2019 and settled at 70.33 compared to 69.49 levels. A speculative jumped it Brent which surged above $75 a barrel level, supported by tighter US sanctions against Iran and ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts, dampening the impact of a sharp rise in crude oil inventories in the US has lifted strong buying activities during the week. However, it gave up somewhat gain as local debt prices ended higher after the weekly auction by the Reserve Bank of India was fully subscribed and Brent crude oil prices tumbled on the back of comments from Trump that he talked to OPEC and told them to get the price of oil down.Technical, on the weekly chart, USDINR Future trading on verge of its massive resistance 70.75 and break above would open the door for next resistance 71.00-71.25. Failure of the break only could create probability for correction towards 69.80-69.50 again. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  Dollar index settled with 0.69% weekly gain at 98.05 compared to previous week close of 97.38 levels. It jumped towards two year high 98.33 against the euro and continued firm versus other major counterparts too after central banks around the world turn dovish amid expectations of an upbeat GDP data from the US. However, dollar index gave up somewhat gain on bet that Federal Reserve will cut rates after better-than-expected U.S. first-quarter growth. Interest rates moved lower Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.504% and is down 6.8% this year.Technical, An ascending triangle breakout was noted on the weekly chart which creating probability for 1.50-2% bullish rally from the current level and the upside level expect towards 98.80—99.50 levels. On the downside, crucial support is 97.40-96.85. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  Euro/Rupee remained mixed node in last week and settled at 78.57 with 0.24% loss. Pair traded down over the Euro zone’s economic growth concerns after the dismal German IFO data amid strong greenback. Earlier, Euro fell to nearly two-year low after disappointing German business morale data amid Brexit woes. However, bets that Federal Reserve will cut rates after better-thanexpected U.S. first-quarter growth supported it against the dollar on Friday.Technically, weekly price action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick which is indication for indecision in near term. This week, 79.25 will act as a massive resistance and break above could result in upside move towards 79.80 and above. Failure of the break could witness correction towards 78.00 again. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  Pound/Rupee remained indecisive last week and settled at 90.96 compared to 90.99 almost flat. Pair traded lower against the US dollar as hopes of a breakthrough in Brexit talks in the cross-party meet faded and UK Prime Minister Theresa May faced growing pressure to quit. Reports showed that PM May want to hold the vote this week so that her government can press ahead with Brexit after weeks of impasse.Technically, cluster of indecisive candle stick on the weekly chart is creating probability for volatile trend in GBPINR as Brexit uncertainty is expect to hold sideways sentiment in the currency. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 90.10 and break below would extend the recent losses and it may test 89.70-89.50, else pair expect to consolidate around 90.50-91.50 levels. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week  Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Tickerplant*DOS- Depends on statement. DOV- Depends on Votes. DOR- Depends on Report.   Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)

MARKET RECAP                                                                  Key Market Data Points The week kicked off on an extreme pessimistic note for the domestic markets following the plunge in Asian indices. The Asian markets corrected sharply on fears that the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China were on the verge of failure. The index Nifty spot started the session with a downside gap of around 100 odd points and remained under pressure throughout the session. Eventually, it closed below 11600 mark. Meanwhile the Nifty Bank index too lost more than 300 points from previous close. The market breadth remained in the favour of declining counters due to broad based selling. On the sectoral front, apart from NIFTY IT (+0.11%) all the other group indices close in negative terrain. With regards to losers, NIFTY MEDIA (-2.18%) and NIFTY METAL (-2.03%) stocks remained under pressure. From the F&O space, PCJEWELLER (+13.97%), TATACHEM (+8.06%) and RAYMOND (+4.92%) were the biggest performers. MARKET OUTLOOK NIFTY Chart The given daily chart of Nifty spot indicates that the index is trading near the lower end of the range 11550 – 11800. Hence for further downside Nifty needs to clear 11550 mark decisively. In such scenario, Nifty might slide towards 11450 mark. On the upside, the intermediate resistance is placed at 11630. A move above the same might bring the bulls back in action. Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions.Disclaimer)