China's official manufacturing PMI index came in at 50.0 for January, in line with market expectations while the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 54.1, higher than estimates of 53.5.
Unemployment rate in the Eurozone fell to 7.4% in December from 7.5% in November.
US new home sales slipped 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 694,000 units last, with sales in the south dropping to more than a one-year low.
US durable goods orders for December were up 2.4%, as compared to the previous figure of -2.1%, which was revised to -3.1%.
US Federal Open Market Committee left its benchmark rate unchanged in the range of 1.5% to 1.75%.
US goods trade gap, which had dropped for three straight months due to declining imports, surged 8.5% to $68.3 billion last month.
German Ifo Business Climate Index came in at 95.9 in January, weaker than previous month's 96.3 and missing the market estimates of 97.0.
Eurozone manufacturing PMI data, released on Friday, stood at 47.8 beating expectation of 46.8 while the services PMI was lower than anticipated at 52.2 in January.
Annual house price growth jumped to a 14-month high this month in the UK. Property values across the UK were 1.9% higher than a year earlier, marking the strongest annual growth since November 2018, when it was also at 1.9%.
USDINR (February Futures)
LTP
Sell around
1st target
2nd target
Stop-loss
71.54
71.50-71.60
71.20
70.90
71.88
The USDINR pair retreated from the weekly high of 71.80 and settled at 71.56. Earlier in the week, the pair had a momentum gain as the US dollar remained in demand against the rupee and other Asian currencies, after the Federal Reserve did nothing to signal any near-term easing of policy despite issuing a statement that was seen as slightly less confident about the economic outlook. On Friday, the pair dropped to the day’s low of 71.46 on selling by exporters ahead of the Union Budget. However, crude oil prices surged by 1.3% after the World Health Organization (WHO) said it had confidence China could control the virus outbreak.
Technically, as per the last week’s outlook, the USDINR pair was able to test the first predicted target of 71.60. The weekly price action resulted in the formation of a high-wave candlestick, which is indicating a volatile to range-bound trend in the near future. On the upside, 71.85 will act as a massive resistance and only a break above will open the door for the next upside target 72.05. Alternatively, the pair is expected to correct towards 71.20–70.90 again.
DOLLAR INDEX
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, settled at 97.36 as compared to the previous week’s close of 97.89. The dollar weakened against major counterparts on Friday, paced by losses against safe-haven currencies like the yen amid fears of a global pandemic as Chinese health authorities showed little sign they have a grip on the outbreak.
From a technical standpoint, on the weekly chart, the dollar index trading on the verge of the Raff regression channel support of 97.30, and a break below this level will indicate a probability for a bearish momentum. In the near future, the dollar index is expected to break its next support of 96.80 and may test 96.50. On the upside, crucial support is seen at 97.30 and a break below this level is expected to test the next support of 96.80–96.50.
EURINR February Futures
LTP
Sell around
1st target
2nd target
Stop-loss
79.07
79.30
78.65
78.20
79.55
The EURINR pair retreated from the weekly high of 79.20 and dropped towards 78.91 before closing at 79.05. The euro came under pressure against the rupee and US dollar on account of increased safe-haven buying in the greenback, as risk appetite suffered following the rise in coronavirus-related deaths and as disappointing Eurozone PMI data and deterioration in the German Ifo economic data led the common currency lower. However, the fall in the pair remained capped and the pair found some support after the unemployment rate in the euro area ticked down in December.
On the weekly chart, since 12 January 2020, the EURINR pair is consolidating around 79.50–78.60 and forming an indecisive candlestick. In the near future, the pair is expected to trade in the above range unless there is a break on either side. On the downside, a break below 78.60 would confirm the downside target of 78.20–78.00. Alternatively, any rise towards 79.30 may provide a selling opportunity with a stop-loss above 79.65.
GBPINR February Futures
LTP
Buy around
1st target
2nd target
Stop-loss
93.87
93.30-93.40
93.90
94.30
92.88
The GBPINR pair witnessed a gain of 0.54% last week and settled at 93.87 as compared to the previous week’s close of 93.37. The pound surged on Thursday in the wake of the Bank of England's decision to keep rates steady, with outgoing Governor Mark Carney saying a cut would have risked inflation rising above the central bank's target. The pound, meanwhile, ticked up after consumer confidence hit a 16-month high in January, on the day that the UK formally leaves the EU.
Technically, the formation of a high-wave candlestick on the weekly chart is indicating that the GBPINR pair will have an indecisive trade in the. However, since 22 December 2019, the GBPINR pair is consolidating above the support of 92.20, which is indicating for bullish momentum in the near future unless the pair closes below it. On the downside, a break below 92.40 only will create probability for a correction towards next support of 91.80–91.50.
High impact economic data & events scheduled during the week
Date
Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Impact
03.02.20
7:15am
CNY
Caixin Manufacturing PMI
51
51.5
Negative
8:30pm
USD
ISM Manufacturing PMI
48.5
47.2
Positive
05.02.20
3:15am
NZD
Employment Change q/q
0.30%
0.20%
Positive
NZD
Unemployment Rate
4.20%
4.20%
Neutral
5:45pm
EUR
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
-
-
-
6:45pm
USD
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
150K
202K
Negative
8:30pm
USD
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
55.1
55
Neutral
06.02.20
1:30pm
EUR
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
-
-
-
07.02.20
7:30am
NZD
Inflation Expectations q/q
-
1.80%
-
7:00pm
CAD
Employment Change
-
35.2K
-
CAD
Unemployment Rate
-
5.60%
-
USD
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
0.30%
0.10%
Positive
USD
Non-Farm Employment Change
160K
145K
Positive
USD
Unemployment Rate
3.50%
3.50%
Neutral
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Tickerplant
*DOS- Depends on statement. DOV- Depends on Votes. DOR- Depends on Report.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 03-FEB-2020
Daily change & technical levels
Scrip
Close
Change (%)
R2
R1
Pivot
S1
S2
GOLD
41205
0.37
41593
41399
41056
40862
40519
SILVER
47118
0.27
47565
47342
47071
46848
46577
CRUDE
3677
-0.16
3771
3724
3693
3646
3615
NG
133.90
1.13
135.40
134.60
133.50
132.70
131.60
ALUMINI
138.85
-0.18
140.15
139.50
138.95
138.30
137.75
COPPER
426.35
-0.21
429.30
427.80
426.90
425.40
424.50
LEADMINI
147.85
-0.14
148.60
148.20
147.90
147.50
147.20
NICKEL
944.10
0.03
951.00
947.40
944.40
940.80
937.80
ZINCMINI
174.00
-0.26
175.50
174.70
174.30
173.50
173.10
DIAMOND
3590.70
0.10
3601.80
3596.25
3587.25
3581.70
3572.70
STEELLONG
32170
-0.92
32680
32420
32280
32020
31880
Comex division
Bullions
Last close
Change (%)
Gold
$1587.90
0.01
Silver
$18.03
0.19
Base metal inventory
Scrip
Inventory
Change
Alumni
1288350
+14025
Copper
180725
-1825
Lead
66800
+0
Nickel
195942
+1374
Zinc
49775
-125
BULLION
Gold and silver gain as WHO declares Chinese coronavirus as health emergency. Trend firm.
Review
On Friday, gold and silver prices settled on a positive note in the international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,587.90 per troy ounce, up by 0.01%, while silver March futures settled at $18.03 per troy ounce, up by 0.19%. Domestic markets also settled on a positive note on Saturday. Gold settled at Rs41,205 per 10 grams with a gain of 0.37%, and silver settled at Rs47,118 per kilogram with a gain of 0.27%. Gold and silver prices gained as WHO declared the Chinese coronavirus as a health emergency. Global equity markets tumbled on Friday, which supported precious metal prices. Prices also gained in domestic markets as the Finance Minister maintained status quo on the import duty on gold and silver in the Union Budget. The Union Budget also disappointed domestic equity markets and the rupee is also weakening, thereby supporting the prices of both precious metals. We expect prices of both precious metals to remain firm and could test next resistance levels. Gold has support at $1,584–1,572 and resistance is at $1,592–1,600. Silver has support at $17.84–17.60, while resistance is at $18.18–18.40.
ENERGY
Crude oil prices dip due to coronavirus outbreak and rising Russian oil production. Trend volatile.
Review
On Friday, crude oil settled on a weaker note in international markets as WTI crude settled at $51.62 per barrel, while Brent settled at $56.65 per barrel. Domestic markets also settled on a weaker note at Rs3,677 per barrel with a loss of 0.16%. Crude oil prices slipped on Friday due to the coronavirus outbreak and rising Russian oil production. Russian oil and gas condensate output rose to 11.28 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, from 11.26 million bpd in December, Interfax news agency reported on Sunday, citing the Energy Ministry's data. This is in line with what sources told Reuters last week and the highest since it reached 11.29 million bpd in August. The coronavirus outbreak is already slowing down global oil demand and the record production in the US and Russia will continue to put pressure on prices. If crude oil breaks below $51.50 per barrel, it could test $50 per barrel in days to come. Crude oil has support at $51.20–50.50 and resistance at $52.20–52.80.
BASE METALS
Short covering lifts base metal prices up; copper unable to gain amid fear of coronavirus. Trend volatile
Review
On Friday, base metals settled on a mixed note in international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,559.50 per metric ton with a loss of 0.17% from the previous close. Base metal prices show some recovery at LME on Friday due to short covering. However, copper prices were unable to gain due to the coronavirus outbreak. Global equity markets also tumbled on Friday and put pressure on base metal prices. Copper prices settled below $5,600 per metric ton on a weekly closing basis at LME. We expect base metal prices to remain volatile next week. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs426–424, while resistance is at Rs429–431. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs926–955, zinc should trade in the range of Rs172–177, lead should trade in the range of Rs145–150, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs137–141.
AGRI COMMODITIES
Edible oil and oil seeds witness very high volatility on Budget day. Trend volatile.
Review
On Saturday, agricultural commodities witnessed a mixed trend, as edible oil, oil seeds and other agricultural commodities saw very high volatility on Budget day. The Government raised import duty on CPO from 37.5% to 44% on imports excluding Indonesia and Malaysia. Bursa Malaysia KLC also closed in the red on Friday. Soybean February future settled on a slightly weaker note in the domestic markets at Rs4,074 per quintal with a loss of 0.24%. CBOT settled at 873 cents. Other agricultural commodities settled on a mixed note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a gain of 0.63%, and castor seed futures settled with a loss of 0.41%. RM seed closed with a loss of 0.63%. Guar seed settled with a loss of 0.45%, and guar gum settled with a loss of 0.35%. The spices pack settled on a mixed note; coriander, and turmeric settled negative while jeera settled positive. Cotton seed oilcake February futures closed positive with a gain of 1.46%. Refined soy oil February futures closed negative at Rs838.40. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs826–854.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
Weekly Currency Report 3rd - 7th February 2020
Weekly change & technical levels
NSE/BSE/MSEI February Futures
Currency pair
LTP
Wk % change
R1
R2
Pivot
S1
S2
USDINR
71.56
0.31
71.8400
72.1200
71.5200
71.2400
70.9200
EURINR
79.07
0.42
79.3300
79.5900
78.9900
78.7300
78.3900
GBPINR
93.87
0.54
94.2133
94.5567
93.8567
93.5133
93.1567
JPYINR
65.74
1.01
66.1267
66.5133
65.8133
65.4267
65.1133
Currencies against the US dollar
Currency pair
LTP
Wk % change
R1
R2
Pivot
S1
S2
DOLLAR INDEX
97.36
-0.54
97.9233
98.4867
97.6367
97.0733
96.7867
EURUSD
1.1088
0.56
1.1123
1.1157
1.1056
1.1022
1.0955
GBPUSD
1.3202
0.97
1.3280
1.3359
1.3127
1.3048
1.2895
USDJPY
108.34
-0.84
108.970
109.600
108.630
108.000
107.660
Foreign exchange reserves
24 January 2020
Weekly change
Total reserves
$466.693bn
up $4.53mn
Important highlights:
USDINR (February Futures)
LTP
Sell around
1st target
2nd target
Stop-loss
71.54
71.50-71.60
71.20
70.90
71.88
The USDINR pair retreated from the weekly high of 71.80 and settled at 71.56. Earlier in the week, the pair had a momentum gain as the US dollar remained in demand against the rupee and other Asian currencies, after the Federal Reserve did nothing to signal any near-term easing of policy despite issuing a statement that was seen as slightly less confident about the economic outlook. On Friday, the pair dropped to the day’s low of 71.46 on selling by exporters ahead of the Union Budget. However, crude oil prices surged by 1.3% after the World Health Organization (WHO) said it had confidence China could control the virus outbreak.
Technically, as per the last week’s outlook, the USDINR pair was able to test the first predicted target of 71.60. The weekly price action resulted in the formation of a high-wave candlestick, which is indicating a volatile to range-bound trend in the near future. On the upside, 71.85 will act as a massive resistance and only a break above will open the door for the next upside target 72.05. Alternatively, the pair is expected to correct towards 71.20–70.90 again.
DOLLAR INDEX
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, settled at 97.36 as compared to the previous week’s close of 97.89. The dollar weakened against major counterparts on Friday, paced by losses against safe-haven currencies like the yen amid fears of a global pandemic as Chinese health authorities showed little sign they have a grip on the outbreak.
From a technical standpoint, on the weekly chart, the dollar index trading on the verge of the Raff regression channel support of 97.30, and a break below this level will indicate a probability for a bearish momentum. In the near future, the dollar index is expected to break its next support of 96.80 and may test 96.50. On the upside, crucial support is seen at 97.30 and a break below this level is expected to test the next support of 96.80–96.50.EURINR February Futures
LTP
Sell around
1st target
2nd target
Stop-loss
79.07
79.30
78.65
78.20
79.55
The EURINR pair retreated from the weekly high of 79.20 and dropped towards 78.91 before closing at 79.05. The euro came under pressure against the rupee and US dollar on account of increased safe-haven buying in the greenback, as risk appetite suffered following the rise in coronavirus-related deaths and as disappointing Eurozone PMI data and deterioration in the German Ifo economic data led the common currency lower. However, the fall in the pair remained capped and the pair found some support after the unemployment rate in the euro area ticked down in December.
On the weekly chart, since 12 January 2020, the EURINR pair is consolidating around 79.50–78.60 and forming an indecisive candlestick. In the near future, the pair is expected to trade in the above range unless there is a break on either side. On the downside, a break below 78.60 would confirm the downside target of 78.20–78.00. Alternatively, any rise towards 79.30 may provide a selling opportunity with a stop-loss above 79.65.GBPINR February Futures
LTP
Buy around
1st target
2nd target
Stop-loss
93.87
93.30-93.40
93.90
94.30
92.88
The GBPINR pair witnessed a gain of 0.54% last week and settled at 93.87 as compared to the previous week’s close of 93.37. The pound surged on Thursday in the wake of the Bank of England's decision to keep rates steady, with outgoing Governor Mark Carney saying a cut would have risked inflation rising above the central bank's target. The pound, meanwhile, ticked up after consumer confidence hit a 16-month high in January, on the day that the UK formally leaves the EU.
Technically, the formation of a high-wave candlestick on the weekly chart is indicating that the GBPINR pair will have an indecisive trade in the. However, since 22 December 2019, the GBPINR pair is consolidating above the support of 92.20, which is indicating for bullish momentum in the near future unless the pair closes below it. On the downside, a break below 92.40 only will create probability for a correction towards next support of 91.80–91.50.
High impact economic data & events scheduled during the week
Date
Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Impact
03.02.20
7:15am
CNY
Caixin Manufacturing PMI
51
51.5
Negative
8:30pm
USD
ISM Manufacturing PMI
48.5
47.2
Positive
05.02.20
3:15am
NZD
Employment Change q/q
0.30%
0.20%
Positive
NZD
Unemployment Rate
4.20%
4.20%
Neutral
5:45pm
EUR
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
-
-
-
6:45pm
USD
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
150K
202K
Negative
8:30pm
USD
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
55.1
55
Neutral
06.02.20
1:30pm
EUR
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
-
-
-
07.02.20
7:30am
NZD
Inflation Expectations q/q
-
1.80%
-
7:00pm
CAD
Employment Change
-
35.2K
-
CAD
Unemployment Rate
-
5.60%
-
USD
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
0.30%
0.10%
Positive
USD
Non-Farm Employment Change
160K
145K
Positive
USD
Unemployment Rate
3.50%
3.50%
Neutral
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Tickerplant
*DOS- Depends on statement. DOV- Depends on Votes. DOR- Depends on Report.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
Previous Story
Commodity Report 3rd February 2020
Daily change & technical levels Scrip Close Change (%) R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 GOLD 41205 0.37 41593 41399 41056 40862 40519 SILVER 47118 0.27 47565 47342 47071 46848 46577 CRUDE 3677 -0.16 3771 3724 3693 3646 3615 NG 133.90 1.13 135.40 134.60 133.50 132.70 131.60 ALUMINI 138.85 -0.18 140.15 139.50 138.95 138.30 137.75 COPPER 426.35 -0.21 429.30 427.80 426.90 425.40 424.50 LEADMINI 147.85 -0.14 148.60 148.20 147.90 147.50 147.20 NICKEL 944.10 0.03 951.00 947.40 944.40 940.80 937.80 ZINCMINI 174.00 -0.26 175.50 174.70 174.30 173.50 173.10 DIAMOND 3590.70 0.10 3601.80 3596.25 3587.25 3581.70 3572.70 STEELLONG 32170 -0.92 32680 32420 32280 32020 31880 Comex division Bullions Last close Change (%) Gold $1587.90 0.01 Silver $18.03 0.19 Base metal inventory Scrip Inventory Change Alumni 1288350 +14025 Copper 180725 -1825 Lead 66800 +0 Nickel 195942 +1374 Zinc 49775 -125 BULLION Gold and silver gain as WHO declares Chinese coronavirus as health emergency. Trend firm. Review On Friday, gold and silver prices settled on a positive note in the international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,587.90 per troy ounce, up by 0.01%, while silver March futures settled at $18.03 per troy ounce, up by 0.19%. Domestic markets also settled on a positive note on Saturday. Gold settled at Rs41,205 per 10 grams with a gain of 0.37%, and silver settled at Rs47,118 per kilogram with a gain of 0.27%. Gold and silver prices gained as WHO declared the Chinese coronavirus as a health emergency. Global equity markets tumbled on Friday, which supported precious metal prices. Prices also gained in domestic markets as the Finance Minister maintained status quo on the import duty on gold and silver in the Union Budget. The Union Budget also disappointed domestic equity markets and the rupee is also weakening, thereby supporting the prices of both precious metals. We expect prices of both precious metals to remain firm and could test next resistance levels. Gold has support at $1,584–1,572 and resistance is at $1,592–1,600. Silver has support at $17.84–17.60, while resistance is at $18.18–18.40. ENERGY Crude oil prices dip due to coronavirus outbreak and rising Russian oil production. Trend volatile. Review On Friday, crude oil settled on a weaker note in international markets as WTI crude settled at $51.62 per barrel, while Brent settled at $56.65 per barrel. Domestic markets also settled on a weaker note at Rs3,677 per barrel with a loss of 0.16%. Crude oil prices slipped on Friday due to the coronavirus outbreak and rising Russian oil production. Russian oil and gas condensate output rose to 11.28 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, from 11.26 million bpd in December, Interfax news agency reported on Sunday, citing the Energy Ministry's data. This is in line with what sources told Reuters last week and the highest since it reached 11.29 million bpd in August. The coronavirus outbreak is already slowing down global oil demand and the record production in the US and Russia will continue to put pressure on prices. If crude oil breaks below $51.50 per barrel, it could test $50 per barrel in days to come. Crude oil has support at $51.20–50.50 and resistance at $52.20–52.80. BASE METALS Short covering lifts base metal prices up; copper unable to gain amid fear of coronavirus. Trend volatile Review On Friday, base metals settled on a mixed note in international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,559.50 per metric ton with a loss of 0.17% from the previous close. Base metal prices show some recovery at LME on Friday due to short covering. However, copper prices were unable to gain due to the coronavirus outbreak. Global equity markets also tumbled on Friday and put pressure on base metal prices. Copper prices settled below $5,600 per metric ton on a weekly closing basis at LME. We expect base metal prices to remain volatile next week. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs426–424, while resistance is at Rs429–431. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs926–955, zinc should trade in the range of Rs172–177, lead should trade in the range of Rs145–150, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs137–141. AGRI COMMODITIES Edible oil and oil seeds witness very high volatility on Budget day. Trend volatile. Review On Saturday, agricultural commodities witnessed a mixed trend, as edible oil, oil seeds and other agricultural commodities saw very high volatility on Budget day. The Government raised import duty on CPO from 37.5% to 44% on imports excluding Indonesia and Malaysia. Bursa Malaysia KLC also closed in the red on Friday. Soybean February future settled on a slightly weaker note in the domestic markets at Rs4,074 per quintal with a loss of 0.24%. CBOT settled at 873 cents. Other agricultural commodities settled on a mixed note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a gain of 0.63%, and castor seed futures settled with a loss of 0.41%. RM seed closed with a loss of 0.63%. Guar seed settled with a loss of 0.45%, and guar gum settled with a loss of 0.35%. The spices pack settled on a mixed note; coriander, and turmeric settled negative while jeera settled positive. Cotton seed oilcake February futures closed positive with a gain of 1.46%. Refined soy oil February futures closed negative at Rs838.40. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs826–854. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
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1st Week of February 2020 - Weekly BSE Gainers, NSE Gainers & Losers Stock Market Report
Indian Markets Recap Indian Indices (% Change) INDEX Close 1D 5D 1M 3M NIFTY 11,962 -0.62 -2.3 -2.2 0.6 BSE500 15,650 -0.62 -2.3 -0.8 1.6 SENSEX 40,723 -0.47 -2.1 -1.8 1.4 MID CAP 100 18,010 -0.66 -1.9 4.2 6.7 NSE SMALL CAP 100 6,226 -0.01 -1.9 4.5 7.5 Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Global Markets Global Markets (% Change) INDEX Close 1D 5D 1M 3M DJIA 28,256 -2.09 -2.5 -1.3 3.3 NASDAQ 9,151 -1.59 -1.8 1.4 9.1 FTSE 7,286 -1.30 -4.0 -4.4 -0.2 Nikkie 23,205 0.99 -2.6 -1.9 1.6 Hangseng 26,313 -0.52 -7.2 -7.5 -2.9 Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Nifty Outlook (SELL on RISE) Bank Nifty Outlook US 10 Year Bond Yield INDIA 10 Year Bond Yield Sectoral Movement INDEX Close 1D 5D 1M 3M Banking 30,834 0.6 -1.3 -3.9 1.7 IT 16,144 -1.13 -1.99 1.3 4.3 Pharma 8,139 -1.20 -1.87 0.3 2.4 Fin Services 14,317 0.2 -0.7 -1.7 5.4 Media 1,835 -0.5 -2.9 4.2 -4.7 NIFTY PSU BANK 2,366 0.8 -3.3 -6.3 -6.9 Auto 8,087 -1.16 -2.28 -1.0 -3.7 FMCG 30,775 -0.52 -2.22 2.2 -5.2 Real Estate 331 1.2 0.7 10.5 22.1 Metals 2,569 -2.3 -8.1 -9.8 0.3 NIFTY PVT BANK 16,936 0.4 -1.5 -4.5 1.2 Source: Bloomberg Sectoral Recap / Lines on performance Sectoral Outlook FII Activity: Derivatives and Cash Market (Weekly) Derivative View LONG BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % NIFTYIT 16211 0.59% 5400 3.85% INFY 782.55 0.32% 26564400 2.51% NESTLEIND 15545.35 0.66% 445800 0.68% DIVISLAB 1986.7 1.31% 1579200 0.61% HINDUNILVR 2078.75 1.61% 9556200 0.28% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research SHORT BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % BANKNIFTY 29873.4 -3.44% 1445200 33.85% NIFTY 11654.9 -2.83% 14718750 22.06% COALINDIA 167.7 -6.39% 64662300 19.83% ICICIPRULI 452.85 -11.83% 9960000 15.38% ONGC 100 -5.75% 99097000 12.40% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Nifty 50 Pivot SYMBOL Close S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 362.30 354.03 358.17 364.78 368.92 375.53 ASIANPAINT 1755.35 1702.58 1728.97 1773.38 1799.77 1844.18 AXISBANK 705.45 681.58 693.52 713.93 725.87 746.28 BAJAJ-AUTO 3143.30 3070.43 3106.87 3161.23 3197.67 3252.03 BAJFINANCE 4276.05 4064.75 4170.40 4308.95 4414.60 4553.15 BAJAJFINSV 8947.40 8333.13 8640.27 9127.13 9434.27 9921.13 BPCL 443.50 421.30 432.40 448.40 459.50 475.50 BHARTIARTL 497.20 475.97 486.58 493.92 504.53 511.87 INFRATEL 247.15 235.32 241.23 245.92 251.83 256.52 BRITANNIA 3097.60 2992.53 3045.07 3132.53 3185.07 3272.53 CIPLA 444.20 430.27 437.23 444.72 451.68 459.17 COALINDIA 173.50 164.57 169.03 175.52 179.98 186.47 DRREDDY 3123.05 3076.82 3099.93 3119.97 3143.08 3163.12 EICHERMOT 20059.25 19501.42 19780.33 20189.17 20468.08 20876.92 GAIL 117.70 110.73 114.22 119.08 122.57 127.43 GRASIM 759.40 732.70 746.05 767.90 781.25 803.10 HCLTECH 590.90 572.83 581.87 589.78 598.82 606.73 HDFCBANK 1198.70 1169.57 1184.13 1205.92 1220.48 1242.27 HEROMOTOCO 2446.90 2301.83 2374.37 2452.68 2525.22 2603.53 HINDALCO 184.40 178.63 181.52 185.68 188.57 192.73 HINDUNILVR 2074.90 2001.03 2037.97 2066.98 2103.92 2132.93 HDFC 2268.25 2144.62 2206.43 2314.57 2376.38 2484.52 ICICIBANK 504.60 485.33 494.97 511.48 521.12 537.63 ITC 219.00 200.83 209.92 224.58 233.67 248.33 IOC 108.90 104.03 106.47 110.58 113.02 117.13 INDUSINDBK 1211.10 1155.47 1183.28 1223.02 1250.83 1290.57 INFY 779.50 758.00 768.75 780.00 790.75 802.00 JSWSTEEL 244.75 233.52 239.13 248.22 253.83 262.92 KOTAKBANK 1647.95 1596.42 1622.18 1655.82 1681.58 1715.22 LT 1287.40 1213.33 1250.37 1317.03 1354.07 1420.73 M&M 545.20 499.53 522.37 551.78 574.62 604.03 MARUTI 6812.65 6518.08 6665.37 6887.58 7034.87 7257.08 NTPC 109.30 105.27 107.28 110.07 112.08 114.87 NESTLEIND 15524.75 14979.62 15252.18 15456.97 15729.53 15934.32 ONGC 104.35 98.68 101.52 105.53 108.37 112.38 POWERGRID 182.40 172.20 177.30 182.05 187.15 191.90 RELIANCE 1383.35 1337.95 1360.65 1393.80 1416.50 1449.65 SBIN 302.60 280.83 291.72 307.18 318.07 333.53 SUNPHARMA 422.80 408.53 415.67 426.53 433.67 444.53 TCS 2164.85 2019.28 2092.07 2136.38 2209.17 2253.48 TATAMOTORS 165.60 154.27 159.93 169.37 175.03 184.47 TATASTEEL 53.20 50.23 51.72 53.58 55.07 56.93 TECHM 807.55 748.78 778.17 795.08 824.47 841.38 TITAN 1173.25 1133.22 1153.23 1185.62 1205.63 1238.02 UPL 503.65 476.85 490.25 512.10 525.50 547.35 ULTRACEMCO 4265.25 3988.75 4127.00 4332.95 4471.20 4677.15 VEDL 134.90 130.30 132.60 135.80 138.10 141.30 WIPRO 236.80 231.77 234.28 236.82 239.33 241.87 YESBANK 37.90 35.97 36.93 38.57 39.53 41.17 ZEEL 252.95 239.82 246.38 257.77 264.33 275.72 Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Note: The levels for TATASTEEL are of TATASTEEL Partly Paid up ShareDisclaimer: "Investment in securities market and Mutual Funds are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing." )