Weekly Currency Report 24th February 2020

Market Recap Market Outlook     Bank Nifty Outlook Exhibit 4: Participants Activity   FII STATS FII  (Activity in no. of Contracts)   in Rs. Cr. Bought Sold Net Chg Conclusion NET OI INDEX FUTURES 994.37 2543 -7643 10,186 Short covering -88820 INDEX CALLS 1538.50 8895 -7356 16,251 Bought CE 95278 INDEX PUTS 4963 2840 2,123 81157 NET 3344.08        Bullish                     PROP  (Activity in no. of Contracts)     Bought Sold Net Chg Conclusion NET OI INDEX FUTURES   -2394 -87 -2,307 Long unwinding -66 INDEX CALLS   7068 -53124 60,192 Covered CE and Sold PE -135513 INDEX PUTS 10453 66125 -55,672 -216154            Bullish   Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Note on Participants Activity Derivative Outlook Exhibit 6: LONG BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % VOLTAS 735.25 5.05% 4428000 27.02% ADANIPOWER 58.3 2.55% 93700000 21.86% TORNTPHARM 2248.05 5.08% 499000 21.71% IDEA 4.25 39.34% 638274000 12.06% MINDTREE 1011.8 1.51% 1166400 11.98% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research   Exhibit 7: SHORT BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % APOLLOTYRE 151.15 -0.59% 22302000 8.72% SAIL 41.8 -0.71% 95785700 4.95% TATAMOTORS 158.2 -2.47% 81996700 4.61% MOTHERSUMI 122.05 -1.09% 20490000 3.56% HCLTECH 607.45 -0.24% 23940000 3.42% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research    Exhibit 8: LONG UNWINDING SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % TCS 2202.55 -0.62% 13143250 -2.18% JSWSTEEL 281.8 -1.09% 55066600 -0.39%                               Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research   Exhibit 9: SHORT COVERING SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % COALINDIA 177.9 3.31% 53249400 -7.56% RAMCOCEM 802.25 1.54% 1258400 -6.87% NTPC 112.2 2.14% 122332800 -6.26% NMDC 105.1 5.42% 40800000 -6.21% CADILAHC 275.75 3.03% 7106000 -4.72% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Nifty 50 Pivots SYMBOL Close S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 371.30 363.93 367.62 371.03 374.72 378.13 ASIANPAINT 1884.90 1834.93 1859.92 1876.33 1901.32 1917.73 AXISBANK 741.05 730.75 735.90 740.50 745.65 750.25 BAJAJ-AUTO 3090.90 3052.20 3071.55 3091.75 3111.10 3131.30 BAJFINANCE 4878.05 4741.48 4809.77 4848.38 4916.67 4955.28 BAJAJFINSV 9758.65 9506.22 9632.43 9706.22 9832.43 9906.22 BPCL 475.55 463.85 469.70 475.35 481.20 486.85 BHARTIARTL 543.40 530.40 536.90 545.25 551.75 560.10 INFRATEL 225.10 205.90 215.50 221.85 231.45 237.80 BRITANNIA 3082.25 3006.75 3044.50 3077.75 3115.50 3148.75 CIPLA 447.50 432.90 440.20 444.70 452.00 456.50 COALINDIA 177.75 172.55 175.15 176.85 179.45 181.15 DRREDDY 3278.15 3237.52 3257.83 3278.32 3298.63 3319.12 EICHERMOT 18875.20 18546.57 18710.88 18874.92 19039.23 19203.27 GAIL 119.85 117.68 118.77 119.83 120.92 121.98 GRASIM 757.15 714.28 735.72 747.73 769.17 781.18 HCLTECH 605.75 595.08 600.42 609.33 614.67 623.58 HDFCBANK 1227.20 1207.60 1217.40 1223.70 1233.50 1239.80 HEROMOTOCO 2251.60 2201.27 2226.43 2252.22 2277.38 2303.17 HINDALCO 188.10 182.83 185.47 187.03 189.67 191.23 HINDUNILVR 2292.15 2213.58 2252.87 2280.53 2319.82 2347.48 HDFC 2377.25 2309.15 2343.20 2364.10 2398.15 2419.05 ICICIBANK 544.80 537.93 541.37 543.93 547.37 549.93 ITC 206.70 202.60 204.65 205.90 207.95 209.20 IOC 114.20 111.93 113.07 113.78 114.92 115.63 INDUSINDBK 1142.15 1090.05 1116.10 1142.05 1168.10 1194.05 INFY 800.45 791.78 796.12 800.48 804.82 809.18 JSWSTEEL 280.85 273.48 277.17 283.58 287.27 293.68 KOTAKBANK 1701.10 1667.57 1684.33 1712.17 1728.93 1756.77 LT 1281.40 1263.27 1272.33 1285.67 1294.73 1308.07 M&M 526.40 518.10 522.25 525.95 530.10 533.80 MARUTI 6756.60 6515.03 6635.82 6745.38 6866.17 6975.73 NTPC 112.05 108.72 110.38 112.07 113.73 115.42 NESTLEIND 16785.05 16341.75 16563.40 16697.45 16919.10 17053.15 ONGC 101.70 97.50 99.60 100.90 103.00 104.30 POWERGRID 187.50 181.20 184.35 186.15 189.30 191.10 RELIANCE 1503.80 1463.77 1483.78 1495.12 1515.13 1526.47 SBIN 320.35 313.78 317.07 320.53 323.82 327.28 SUNPHARMA 403.55 392.52 398.03 406.12 411.63 419.72 TCS 2196.35 2166.12 2181.23 2205.62 2220.73 2245.12 TATAMOTORS 158.05 147.02 152.53 158.57 164.08 170.12 TATASTEEL 51.80 50.80 51.30 52.10 52.60 53.40 TECHM 840.90 831.80 836.35 840.60 845.15 849.40 TITAN 1329.60 1304.00 1316.80 1324.85 1337.65 1345.70 UPL 585.20 574.23 579.72 586.78 592.27 599.33 ULTRACEMCO 4473.10 4411.03 4442.07 4486.03 4517.07 4561.03 VEDL 142.65 140.22 141.43 142.82 144.03 145.42 WIPRO 247.60 242.97 245.28 246.82 249.13 250.67 YESBANK 35.30 32.43 33.87 35.03 36.47 37.63 ZEEL 252.25 239.88 246.07 250.68 256.87 261.48 Note: The levels for TATASTEEL are of TATASTEEL Partly Paid up Share. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)

Daily change & technical levels Scrip Close Change (%) R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 GOLD 42666 1.49 43135 42901 42555 42321 41975 SILVER 48304 0.85 48800 48552 48341 48093 47882 CRUDE 3859 -1.15 3948 3903 3852 3807 3756 NG 137.40 -2.62 141.90 139.70 136.70 14.50 131.50 ALUMINI 137.95 0.44 139.40 138.70 137.60 136.90 135.80 COPPER 430.25 0.02 433.10 431.70 429.70 428.30 426.30 LEADMINI 143.45 -1.24 146.15 144.80 143.95 142.60 141.75 NICKEL 932.30 -0.94 939.20 935.80 931.50 928.10 923.80 ZINCMINI 162.60 -1.51 166.10 164.40 163.20 161.40 160.20 DIAMOND 3592.95 -0.19 3605.90 3599.40 3595.00 3588.50 3584.00 STEELLONG 31770 0.32 31890 31830 31760 31700 31630   Comex division Bullions Last close Change (%) Gold $1645.95 1.57 Silver $18.46 0.75   Base metal inventory Scrip Inventory Change Alumni 1150775 -11525 Copper 164850 -1575 Lead 66725 +0 Nickel 224766 +3840 Zinc 75475 +875 * Closing rates of 21 Feb & LME stock of 21 Feb BULLION Gold and silver prices skyrocket on spreading coronavirus and poor global economic data. Trend firm. Review On Friday, gold and silver prices settled on a positive note in international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,645.95 per troy ounce, up by 1.57%, while silver March futures settled at $18.46 per troy ounce, up by 0.75%. Domestic markets also settled on a positive note. Gold settled at Rs42,666 per 10 grams with a gain of 1.49%, and silver settled at Rs48,304 per kilogram with a gain of 0.85%. Gold and silver prices skyrocketed on Friday due to the coronavirus spreading to other countries and poor global economic data released during the week. Gold prices crossed $1,645 per troy ounce and silver also crossed $18.40 per troy ounce. Gold prices reached to fresh seven-year high in international markets, while the metal made a lifetime high at MCX. Poor economic data released from the US and Japan pushed global equity markets lower and supported safe-haven buying in precious metals. We expect prices of both precious metals to remain firm and the buy-on-dip strategy will still work next week. Gold has support at $1,632–1,624 and resistance at $1,654–1,666. Silver has support at $18.30–18.18, while resistance is at $18.55–18.80. Today, gold has support at Rs42,321–41,975, while resistance is at Rs42,901–43,135. Silver has support at Rs48,093–47,882, while resistance is at Rs48,552–48,800. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. ENERGY Fear of coronavirus and Russia’s delay in announcing further output cut push crude prices lower. Trend volatile Review On Friday, crude oil settled on a negative note in international markets as WTI crude settled at $53.44 per barrel, while Brent settled at $58.45 per barrel. Domestic markets also settled on a weaker note at Rs3,859 per barrel with a loss of 1.15%. Crude oil prices slipped on Wednesday, as the coronavirus spread to other countries and Russia has not yet agreed for a further production cut. Russia is in no rush to announce its position on additional cuts proposed by OPEC, as nothing urgent is happening in the oil market and there are two more weeks until the scheduled ministerial meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC countries, energy minister Alexander Novak said. Plans for an earlier, mid-February meeting to mitigate a drop in oil prices caused by the coronavirus outbreak were formally canceled late Wednesday as Russia, among other countries, was not convinced of the need to deepen production cuts as proposed by an OPEC+ advisory committee. We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile this week and if they slips below $52 per barrel, it could show further weakness in the coming days. Crude oil has support at $52.70–52.20 and resistance at $54.00–54.40. Crude oil has support at Rs3,807–3,756, while resistance is at Rs3,903–3,948; traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. BASE METALS Base metals trade sideways as global metal is demand hit by coronavirus. Trend volatile. Review On Friday, base metals settled on a mixed note in international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,763.00 per metric ton with a gain of 0.42% from the previous close. Base metals traded sideways on Friday despite weakness in dollar index. Base metals were unable to sustain at higher levels amid as the spreading coronavirus impacted global demand. “This is the biggest demand shock since the financial crisis, and until we see China getting back to work, the virus will be the main focus,” said head of commodity strategy Saxo Bank. US business activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors stalled in February. Global equity markets plunged again, and we expect base metals to trade sideways; the sell-on-rise strategy will still work this week. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs428–426, while resistance is at Rs432–433. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs916–948, zinc should trade in the range of Rs160–166, lead should trade in the range of Rs141–146, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs135–140. Copper has support at Rs428 and Rs426, while resistance is at Rs432 and Rs433; traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. AGRI COMMODITIES Agricultural commodities are in strong bear grip due to lower demand and record rabi output. Trend volatile. Review On Thursday, agricultural commodities extended the fall on the hope of record rabi crop production and fear of slower global demand from coronavirus. The record domestic production in the rabi season and the demand shock from the coronavirus will continue to impact domestic agricultural commodities. However, Bursa Malaysia KLC settled positive. The soybean March futures settled on a slightly positive note in the domestic markets at Rs3,868 per quintal with a gain of 0.10%. CBOT settled at 888 cents. The other agricultural commodities settled on a mixed note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a loss of 1.19%, while castor seed futures settled with a loss of 0.51%. RM seed April futures closed with a gain of 0.55%. Guar seed settled with a loss of 0.05%, and guar gum also settled with a loss of 0.15%. The spices pack settled on a mixed note; coriander and jeera settled positive while turmeric settled negative. Cotton seed oilcake March futures closed negative with a loss of 1.60%. Refined soy oil March futures closed positive at Rs809. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs798–818. Soybean has support at Rs3,830–3,800, while resistance is at Rs3,900–3,920. Refined soy oil has support at Rs802–798, while resistance is at Rs814–818. Traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)