The RBI MPC maintained status quo and kept the repo rate and reverse repo rate steady at 5.15% and 4.90%, respectively, while the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the bank rate were maintained at 5.40%.
US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) stood at 50.9 in January, rising from 47.8 in December, showed the report.
India’s PMI climbed to a near 8-yr peak at the start of 2020 due to a sharp rise in new business and production.
France’s December industrial production was at -2.8% as compared to -0.3% m/m expected, while the previous figure was +0.3%.
France’s December trade balance stood at -€4.05 billion as compared to -€5.15 billion expected; the previous figure was -€5.58 billion and the current account balance was at -€0.6 billion, against the previous figure of €0.5 billion.
Canada’s January Markit manufacturing PMI stood at 50.6 as compared to the previous figure of 50.4.
China’s Caixin Markit services PMI for January stood at 51.8 as compared to previous reading of 52.0.
US nonfarm payrolls for the month rose by 225,000, up from a rise of 145,000 in December, and jobless rate rose to 3.6% of the workforce from 3.5%.
US average hourly earnings, a measure of wage inflation, rose 0.2% in January, and were up 3.1% year on year.
Canada net changes in employment for January stood at 34,500 as compared to the previous reading of 17,500.
The USDINR pair retreated from the weekly high of 71.85 and dropped to a weekly low 71.23, and settled at 71.53. The falling crude oil prices, which hit a 13-month low on growing concerns over China's deadly coronavirus, led to lower dollar demand from oil importers. However, downside momentum remained limited and the pair scaled a high of 71.6150 again, as the greenback strengthened more than 1% and the Chinese yuan plunged 0.91%. The Chinese yuan weakened as sentiments weakened owing to the country's coronavirus. However, the currency gained slightly after the Chinese central bank’s stimulus and Thursday's surprise Chinese announcement of tariff cuts on US imports.
Technically, as per last week’s outlook, the USDINR pair retreated from 71.85 and tested 71.23, close to the first predicted target of 71.20. The weekly price action resulted in the formation of a bearish spinning-top candlestick, which is indicating a bearish momentum in the near future. However, following the ongoing global factors, downside momentum expects to be limited and pair may rebound from 71.20–71.00 again. On the downside, a break below 70.80 only will cause selling pressure, and the pair may test the next support of 70.55.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, settled at 98.70 as compared to the previous week’s close of 97.36, up 1.38%. The US dollar gained against its major counterparts after factory goods orders for December saw the largest gain since August 2018. The dollar strengthened on Friday, after US nonfarm payroll data improved in January, shrugging off expectations that a continued slowdown in US wages will weigh on the pace of inflation and keep interest rates lower for longer. Also, ongoing fears that the UK and EU are set for rocky Brexit trade talks in the coming months weighed on the sentiment.
From a technical standpoint, the formation of a bullish Marubozu candle stick on the weekly chart is indicating a bullish momentum in the near future. Further, the 100 SMA and 200 SMA are showing a bullish crossover, which is also supporting the bullish outlook. In the near future, the dollar index is expected to break its next resistance of 99.05 and may test 99.50–99.80. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 98.20, and a break below this level is expected cause the index to test the next support of 97.80–97.55.
The EURINR pair witnessed a 0.70% fall last week. The pair retreated from the weekly high of 79.7725 and dropped towards 78.3975 before closing at 78.47. The euro came under pressure against the rupee and US dollar on Friday following dismal industrial production data from Germany and France data, which led the common currency lower. The US dollar gained against major counterparts after factory goods orders for December month saw the largest gain since August 2018. However, the fall in the pair remained capped and the pair found some support after the unemployment rate in the euro area ticked down in December.
On the weekly chart, since 12 January 2020, the EURINR pair is consolidating around 79.50–78.60 and formed a long bearish candlestick, which is indicating a bearish momentum in the near future. This week, a break below 78.35 would extend the recent fall, and the pair may test the next support of 77.9–77.65. Alternatively, a failure to break this level could create a probability for a momentum recovery toward the immediate resistance of 78.75–79.20 again.
The GBPINR pair witnessed a gain of 1.54%, its biggest weekly fall since 5 January 2020, and settled at 92.55 as compared to the previous week’s close of 93.87. The pound is back in doldrums as concerns about a chaotic Brexit at the end of the year loom ahead; the pair plunged below its three week low of 92.3225, after headlines of the European Union (EU) suggesting an adjustment in the MiFID II regulations, which could worsen the UK’s business prospects in Europe going ahead. The UK is a net exporter of financial services to the EU and the move appears to be a clear attempt by the EU to weaken the dominance of London following Brexit. The UK and EU are set to get trade talks started in March.
Technically, a bearish inside-bar candle formation was noted on the weekly chart, which is indicating a bearish momentum in the near future. However, since 22 December 2019, the GBPINR pair is consolidating above the support of 91.98, and the pair need to close below it. Only a break below 91.98 will create the probability for a correction towards the next support of 91.50–91.00. Alternatively, a sell on rise could expected from 93.75–93.85 levels, and stop-loss will be above 94.60.
High impact economic data & events scheduled during the week
Date
Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Impact
11.02.20
3:00pm
GBP
Prelim GDP q/q
0.00%
0.40%
Negative
7:30pm
EUR
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
-
-
-
8:30pm
USD
Fed Chair Powell Testifies
-
-
-
9:05pm
GBP
BOE Gov Carney Speaks
-
-
-
12.02.20
6:30am
NZD
Official Cash Rate
1.00%
1.00%
Neutral
NZD
RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
-
-
-
NZD
RBNZ Rate Statement
-
-
-
7:30am
NZD
RBNZ Press Conference
-
-
-
8:30pm
USD
Fed Chair Powell Testifies
-
-
-
13.02.20
12:40am
NZD
RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
-
-
-
5:45am
AUD
RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
-
-
-
7:00pm
USD
CPI m/m
0.20%
0.20%
Neutral
USD
Core CPI m/m
0.20%
0.10%
Positive
14.02.20
7:00pm
USD
Core Retail Sales m/m
0.30%
0.70%
Negative
USD
Retail Sales m/m
0.30%
30.00%
Negative
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Tickerplant
*DOS- Depends on statement. DOV- Depends on Votes. DOR- Depends on Report.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 10-FEB-2020
Daily change & technical levels
Scrip
Close
Change (%)
R2
R1
Pivot
S1
S2
GOLD
40644
0.73
40979
40811
40557
40389
40135
SILVER
46106
-0.25
46649
46377
46124
45852
45599
CRUDE
3617
-0.36
3711
3664
3626
3579
3541
NG
134.20
-1.03
138.50
136.30
134.20
132.00
129.90
ALUMINI
137.85
-0.54
140.50
139.20
137.90
136.60
135.30
COPPER
430.90
-1.06
436.70
433.80
432.10
429.20
427.50
LEADMINI
144.65
-0.92
146.80
145.70
145.10
144.00
143.40
NICKEL
940.70
-1.71
971.80
956.30
946.60
931.10
896.20
ZINCMINI
169.85
-1.36
173.80
171.80
170.70
168.70
167.60
DIAMOND
3581.90
0.47
3589.50
3577.40
3571.10
3559.00
3552.80
STEELLONG
31930
0.25
32170
32050
31950
31830
31730
Comex division
Bullions
Last close
Change (%)
Gold
$1573.90
0.25
Silver
$17.68
-0.76
Base metal inventory
Scrip
Inventory
Change
Alumni
1242950
-14800
Copper
171525
-3275
Lead
66800
+75
Nickel
203946
+3522
Zinc
62675
+9725
BULLION
Gold and silver hold key support levels amid fears of coronavirus; strong dollar limits gain. Trend volatile.
Review
On Friday, gold and silver prices settled on a mixed note in international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,573.90 per troy ounce, up by 0.25%, while silver March futures settled at $17.68 per troy ounce, down by 0.76%. Domestic markets also settled on a mixed note. Gold settled at Rs40,644 per 10 grams with a gain of 0.73%, and silver settled at Rs46,106 per kilogram with a loss of 0.25%. Gold and silver witnessed strong volatility last week due to strength in the dollar index after upbeat US manufacturing, non-farm employment change and unemployment claims data. But fears over the coronavirus outbreak supported prices of both precious metals. Weakness in the rupee additionally supported prices of both precious metals. We expect prices to remain volatile next week due to strength in the dollar index. Gold has support at $1,562–1,555 and resistance at $1,584–1,592. Silver has support at $17.55–17.40, while resistance is at $17.80–18.00Today, gold has support at Rs40,389–40,135, while resistance is at Rs40,811–40,979. Silver has support at Rs45,852–45,599, while resistance is at Rs46,377–46,649. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss.
ENERGY
Crude oil prices decline for 5th straight week amid fear of lower oil demand due to coronavirus. Trend weak.
Review
On Friday, crude oil settled on a weaker note in international markets as WTI crude settled at $50.36 per barrel, while Brent settled at $54.45 per barrel. Domestic markets also settled on a weaker note at Rs3,617 per barrel with a loss of 0.36%. Crude oil prices slipped again on Friday, the fifth straight weekly fall, amid fears of slower global crude oil demand due to the spread of the coronavirus from China to other countries. Chinese refiners are processing 15% less crude than before the outbreak as the infection crimps demand. Meanwhile, Russia hesitated to accept a proposal by OPEC+ countries to cut output by 600,000 barrels a day. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak promised an answer to the proposal in a few days. We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile, and $52 per barrel will act as major resistance for the prices. If prices sustain below $50 per barrel, they could test $48-47 per barrel in the coming days. Crude oil has support at $50.00–49.40 and resistance at $51.00–51.40Crude oil has support at Rs3,579–3,541, while resistance is at Rs3,664–3,711; traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss..
BASE METALS
Base metals bleed due to spreading coronavirus and strength in dollar index. Trend volatile.
Review
On Friday, base metals settled on a weaker note in international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,656.00 per metric ton with a loss of 1.53% from the previous close. Base metal prices witnessed weaker trend on Friday due to the mounting fear of the coronavirus outbreak in China after death toll rose. Base metals also struggled due to strength in the dollar index. Even upbeat US manufacturing, non-farm employment change and unemployment claims data were unable to support prices. We expect prices of base metals to remain volatile and selling pressure is expected on every rise till the coronavirus outbreak is brought under control in China. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs429–427, while resistance is at Rs434–437. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs928–956, zinc should trade in the range of Rs167–173, lead should trade in the range of Rs143–147, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs136–140Copper has support at Rs429 and Rs427, while resistance is at Rs434 and Rs437; traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss.
AGRI COMMODITIES
Strength in the dollar index and fear of coronavirus pushes agricultural commodities down. Trend volatile.
Review
On Friday, most of the agricultural commodities slipped again amid persisting fears of the coronavirus outbreak among global economies. The rising death toll in China is again putting pressure on prices of oil seeds, edible oil and other agricultural commodities. Strength in the dollar index also puts pressure on the entire agriculture commodities pack. Bursa Malaysia KLC also closed negative. Soybean February futures settled on a weaker note in domestic markets at Rs4,070 per quintal with a loss of 1.21%. CBOT settled at 883 cents. Other agricultural commodities also settled on a weaker note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a loss of 0.89%, and castor seed futures settled with a loss of 0.26%. RM seed closed with a loss of 0.37%. Guar seed settled with a loss of 1.21%, and guar gum also settled with a loss of 1.22%. The spices pack also settled on a weaker note; coriander, jeera and turmeric all settled negative. Cotton seed oilcake February futures closed negative with a loss of 1.15%. Refined soy oil February futures closed positive at Rs850.00. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs840–864Soybean has support at Rs4,040–4,000, while resistance is at Rs4,110–4,140. Refined soy oil has support at Rs844–840, while resistance is at Rs858–864. Traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop-loss.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.
)
Weekly Currency Report 10th February 2020
Weekly change & technical levels
NSE/BSE/MSEI February Futures
Currency pair
LTP
Wk % change
R1
R2
Pivot
S1
S2
USDINR
71.52
-0.06
71.8367
72.1533
71.5333
71.2167
70.9133
EURINR
78.47
-0.73
79.3450
80.1975
78.8675
78.0150
77.5375
GBPINR
92.55
-1.36
94.0300
95.4650
93.1750
91.7400
90.8850
JPYINR
65.21
-0.84
66.1200
67.0500
65.3600
64.4300
63.6700
Currencies against the US dollar
Currency pair
LTP
Wk % change
R1
R2
Pivot
S1
S2
DOLLAR INDEX
98.72
1.38
99.1567
99.6133
98.2633
97.8067
96.9133
EURUSD
1.0945
-1.29
1.1046
1.1147
1.0993
1.0892
1.0839
GBPUSD
1.2883
-2.42
110.410
111.080
109.350
108.680
107.620
USDJPY
109.74
1.29
1.3085
1.3286
1.2982
1.2781
1.2678
Foreign exchange reserves
31 January 2020
Weekly change
Total reserves
at $471.30 bln
up $4.607 bln
Important highlights
The USDINR pair retreated from the weekly high of 71.85 and dropped to a weekly low 71.23, and settled at 71.53. The falling crude oil prices, which hit a 13-month low on growing concerns over China's deadly coronavirus, led to lower dollar demand from oil importers. However, downside momentum remained limited and the pair scaled a high of 71.6150 again, as the greenback strengthened more than 1% and the Chinese yuan plunged 0.91%. The Chinese yuan weakened as sentiments weakened owing to the country's coronavirus. However, the currency gained slightly after the Chinese central bank’s stimulus and Thursday's surprise Chinese announcement of tariff cuts on US imports.
Technically, as per last week’s outlook, the USDINR pair retreated from 71.85 and tested 71.23, close to the first predicted target of 71.20. The weekly price action resulted in the formation of a bearish spinning-top candlestick, which is indicating a bearish momentum in the near future. However, following the ongoing global factors, downside momentum expects to be limited and pair may rebound from 71.20–71.00 again. On the downside, a break below 70.80 only will cause selling pressure, and the pair may test the next support of 70.55.The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, settled at 98.70 as compared to the previous week’s close of 97.36, up 1.38%. The US dollar gained against its major counterparts after factory goods orders for December saw the largest gain since August 2018. The dollar strengthened on Friday, after US nonfarm payroll data improved in January, shrugging off expectations that a continued slowdown in US wages will weigh on the pace of inflation and keep interest rates lower for longer. Also, ongoing fears that the UK and EU are set for rocky Brexit trade talks in the coming months weighed on the sentiment.
From a technical standpoint, the formation of a bullish Marubozu candle stick on the weekly chart is indicating a bullish momentum in the near future. Further, the 100 SMA and 200 SMA are showing a bullish crossover, which is also supporting the bullish outlook. In the near future, the dollar index is expected to break its next resistance of 99.05 and may test 99.50–99.80. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 98.20, and a break below this level is expected cause the index to test the next support of 97.80–97.55.
The EURINR pair witnessed a 0.70% fall last week. The pair retreated from the weekly high of 79.7725 and dropped towards 78.3975 before closing at 78.47. The euro came under pressure against the rupee and US dollar on Friday following dismal industrial production data from Germany and France data, which led the common currency lower. The US dollar gained against major counterparts after factory goods orders for December month saw the largest gain since August 2018. However, the fall in the pair remained capped and the pair found some support after the unemployment rate in the euro area ticked down in December.
On the weekly chart, since 12 January 2020, the EURINR pair is consolidating around 79.50–78.60 and formed a long bearish candlestick, which is indicating a bearish momentum in the near future. This week, a break below 78.35 would extend the recent fall, and the pair may test the next support of 77.9–77.65. Alternatively, a failure to break this level could create a probability for a momentum recovery toward the immediate resistance of 78.75–79.20 again.
The GBPINR pair witnessed a gain of 1.54%, its biggest weekly fall since 5 January 2020, and settled at 92.55 as compared to the previous week’s close of 93.87. The pound is back in doldrums as concerns about a chaotic Brexit at the end of the year loom ahead; the pair plunged below its three week low of 92.3225, after headlines of the European Union (EU) suggesting an adjustment in the MiFID II regulations, which could worsen the UK’s business prospects in Europe going ahead. The UK is a net exporter of financial services to the EU and the move appears to be a clear attempt by the EU to weaken the dominance of London following Brexit. The UK and EU are set to get trade talks started in March.
Technically, a bearish inside-bar candle formation was noted on the weekly chart, which is indicating a bearish momentum in the near future. However, since 22 December 2019, the GBPINR pair is consolidating above the support of 91.98, and the pair need to close below it. Only a break below 91.98 will create the probability for a correction towards the next support of 91.50–91.00. Alternatively, a sell on rise could expected from 93.75–93.85 levels, and stop-loss will be above 94.60.
High impact economic data & events scheduled during the week
Date
Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Impact
11.02.20
3:00pm
GBP
Prelim GDP q/q
0.00%
0.40%
Negative
7:30pm
EUR
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
-
-
-
8:30pm
USD
Fed Chair Powell Testifies
-
-
-
9:05pm
GBP
BOE Gov Carney Speaks
-
-
-
12.02.20
6:30am
NZD
Official Cash Rate
1.00%
1.00%
Neutral
NZD
RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
-
-
-
NZD
RBNZ Rate Statement
-
-
-
7:30am
NZD
RBNZ Press Conference
-
-
-
8:30pm
USD
Fed Chair Powell Testifies
-
-
-
13.02.20
12:40am
NZD
RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
-
-
-
5:45am
AUD
RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
-
-
-
7:00pm
USD
CPI m/m
0.20%
0.20%
Neutral
USD
Core CPI m/m
0.20%
0.10%
Positive
14.02.20
7:00pm
USD
Core Retail Sales m/m
0.30%
0.70%
Negative
USD
Retail Sales m/m
0.30%
30.00%
Negative
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Tickerplant
*DOS- Depends on statement. DOV- Depends on Votes. DOR- Depends on Report.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
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2nd Week of February 2020 - Weekly BSE Gainers, NSE Gainers & Losers Stock Market Report
Indian Markets Recap Indian Indices (% Change) INDEX Close 1D 5D 1M 3M NIFTY 12,098 -0.33 3.7 -1.3 1.6 BSE500 15,867 -0.05 4.1 0.2 3.2 SENSEX 41,142 -0.40 3.5 -1.1 2.0 MID CAP 100 18,368 0.66 4.8 5.6 9.9 NSE SMALL CAP 100 6,247 0.11 3.1 3.2 8.8 Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Global Markets Global Markets (% Change) INDEX Close 1D 5D 1M 3M DJIA 29,103 -0.94 3.0 1.0 5.1 NASDAQ 9,521 -0.54 4.0 3.7 12.3 FTSE 7,467 -0.51 2.5 -1.6 1.5 Nikkie 23,744 -0.35 3.4 -0.4 1.5 Hangseng 27,246 -0.58 3.4 -4.9 -1.5 Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Nifty Outlook (SELL on RISE) Bank Nifty Outlook US 10 Year Bond Yield INDIA 10 Year Bond Yield Sectoral Movement INDEX Close 1D 5D 1M 3M Banking 31,202 -0.3 4.6 -2.8 1.5 IT 16,470 0.60 1.15 3.2 7.1 Pharma 8,342 1.38 4.09 3.5 7.1 Fin Services 14,502 -0.3 5.4 -0.7 4.6 Media 1,827 1.9 4.1 3.2 0.1 NIFTY PSU BANK 2,313 -0.1 1.5 -6.0 -5.1 Auto 8,065 -0.95 2.34 -2.0 -1.3 FMCG 30,810 0.24 2.03 1.4 -3.6 Real Estate 320 -1.8 5.0 3.1 14.0 Metals 2,711 0.8 9.3 -4.6 3.7 NIFTY PVT BANK 17,182 -0.4 4.6 -3.1 1.1 Source: Bloomberg Sectoral Recap / Lines on performance Sectoral Outlook FII Activity: Derivatives and Cash Market (Weekly) Derivative View LONG BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % IDEA 5.3 1.92% 473536000 9.37% DIVISLAB 2074.7 2.25% 1770000 8.80% APOLLOHOSP 1669.45 1.26% 1811500 8.47% SRF 4098.3 2.23% 896250 6.32% CIPLA 445.05 0.98% 14990250 6.21% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research SHORT BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % MRF 70962.8 -1.22% 21570 9.55% GODREJCP 649.65 -0.76% 6480000 8.36% KOTAKBANK 1660.2 -1.21% 8858800 6.95% DLF 235.65 -4.27% 34409100 6.37% PETRONET 273.75 -0.02% 20037000 6.35% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Nifty 50 Pivot SYMBOL Close S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 369.55 363.65 366.60 370.15 373.10 376.65 ASIANPAINT 1858.70 1836.03 1847.37 1861.93 1873.27 1887.83 AXISBANK 748.15 728.58 738.37 743.78 753.57 758.98 BAJAJ-AUTO 3134.85 3061.08 3097.97 3143.48 3180.37 3225.88 BAJFINANCE 4654.30 4594.97 4624.63 4655.77 4685.43 4716.57 BAJAJFINSV 9623.30 9506.73 9565.02 9619.33 9677.62 9731.93 BPCL 491.40 481.40 486.40 491.00 496.00 500.60 BHARTIARTL 539.45 531.48 535.47 542.23 546.22 552.98 INFRATEL 247.80 239.80 243.80 246.40 250.40 253.00 BRITANNIA 3251.40 3202.60 3227.00 3261.50 3285.90 3320.40 CIPLA 443.20 433.53 438.37 442.13 446.97 450.73 COALINDIA 185.05 175.12 180.08 183.07 188.03 191.02 DRREDDY 3166.70 3114.90 3140.80 3162.90 3188.80 3210.90 EICHERMOT 19736.30 19123.07 19429.68 19973.32 20279.93 20823.57 GAIL 123.00 120.80 121.90 123.25 124.35 125.70 GRASIM 787.65 774.22 780.93 792.27 798.98 810.32 HCLTECH 607.70 595.30 601.50 605.35 611.55 615.40 HDFCBANK 1242.20 1224.87 1233.53 1240.27 1248.93 1255.67 HEROMOTOCO 2443.45 2378.95 2411.20 2453.60 2485.85 2528.25 HINDALCO 197.40 190.67 194.03 196.22 199.58 201.77 HINDUNILVR 2159.95 2127.45 2143.70 2157.85 2174.10 2188.25 HDFC 2405.65 2364.82 2385.23 2418.77 2439.18 2472.72 ICICIBANK 536.45 531.18 533.82 537.78 540.42 544.38 ITC 213.40 211.00 212.20 213.95 215.15 216.90 IOC 117.50 114.00 115.75 116.75 118.50 119.50 INDUSINDBK 1298.80 1261.90 1280.35 1313.20 1331.65 1364.50 INFY 777.30 767.87 772.58 775.72 780.43 783.57 JSWSTEEL 279.30 270.10 274.70 277.35 281.95 284.60 KOTAKBANK 1653.05 1624.38 1638.72 1658.33 1672.67 1692.28 LT 1299.00 1284.73 1291.87 1303.13 1310.27 1321.53 M&M 569.10 550.43 559.77 570.63 579.97 590.83 MARUTI 6971.75 6870.58 6921.17 6985.58 7036.17 7100.58 NTPC 115.60 110.77 113.18 114.72 117.13 118.67 NESTLEIND 16327.80 16112.07 16219.93 16302.47 16410.33 16492.87 ONGC 109.25 105.32 107.28 108.52 110.48 111.72 POWERGRID 190.40 186.33 188.37 190.58 192.62 194.83 RELIANCE 1433.65 1414.05 1423.85 1438.10 1447.90 1462.15 SBIN 320.55 314.72 317.63 321.32 324.23 327.92 SUNPHARMA 430.80 413.37 422.08 431.92 440.63 450.47 TCS 2136.55 2103.52 2120.03 2135.52 2152.03 2167.52 TATAMOTORS 173.60 169.77 171.68 174.92 176.83 180.07 TATASTEEL 57.50 55.50 56.50 58.00 59.00 60.50 TECHM 824.45 810.18 817.32 821.38 828.52 832.58 TITAN 1275.00 1249.87 1262.43 1270.97 1283.53 1292.07 UPL 543.10 528.47 535.78 545.62 552.93 562.77 ULTRACEMCO 4471.80 4392.13 4431.97 4489.48 4529.32 4586.83 VEDL 144.60 140.33 142.47 143.88 146.02 147.43 WIPRO 243.95 240.58 242.27 244.63 246.32 248.68 YESBANK 38.70 37.13 37.92 38.93 39.72 40.73 ZEEL 249.75 230.92 240.33 245.92 255.33 260.92 Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Note: The levels for TATASTEEL are of TATASTEEL Partly Paid up Share Disclaimer: "Investment in securities market and Mutual Funds are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.")
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Commodity Report 10th February 2020
Daily change & technical levels Scrip Close Change (%) R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 GOLD 40644 0.73 40979 40811 40557 40389 40135 SILVER 46106 -0.25 46649 46377 46124 45852 45599 CRUDE 3617 -0.36 3711 3664 3626 3579 3541 NG 134.20 -1.03 138.50 136.30 134.20 132.00 129.90 ALUMINI 137.85 -0.54 140.50 139.20 137.90 136.60 135.30 COPPER 430.90 -1.06 436.70 433.80 432.10 429.20 427.50 LEADMINI 144.65 -0.92 146.80 145.70 145.10 144.00 143.40 NICKEL 940.70 -1.71 971.80 956.30 946.60 931.10 896.20 ZINCMINI 169.85 -1.36 173.80 171.80 170.70 168.70 167.60 DIAMOND 3581.90 0.47 3589.50 3577.40 3571.10 3559.00 3552.80 STEELLONG 31930 0.25 32170 32050 31950 31830 31730 Comex division Bullions Last close Change (%) Gold $1573.90 0.25 Silver $17.68 -0.76 Base metal inventory Scrip Inventory Change Alumni 1242950 -14800 Copper 171525 -3275 Lead 66800 +75 Nickel 203946 +3522 Zinc 62675 +9725 BULLION Gold and silver hold key support levels amid fears of coronavirus; strong dollar limits gain. Trend volatile. Review On Friday, gold and silver prices settled on a mixed note in international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,573.90 per troy ounce, up by 0.25%, while silver March futures settled at $17.68 per troy ounce, down by 0.76%. Domestic markets also settled on a mixed note. Gold settled at Rs40,644 per 10 grams with a gain of 0.73%, and silver settled at Rs46,106 per kilogram with a loss of 0.25%. Gold and silver witnessed strong volatility last week due to strength in the dollar index after upbeat US manufacturing, non-farm employment change and unemployment claims data. But fears over the coronavirus outbreak supported prices of both precious metals. Weakness in the rupee additionally supported prices of both precious metals. We expect prices to remain volatile next week due to strength in the dollar index. Gold has support at $1,562–1,555 and resistance at $1,584–1,592. Silver has support at $17.55–17.40, while resistance is at $17.80–18.00Today, gold has support at Rs40,389–40,135, while resistance is at Rs40,811–40,979. Silver has support at Rs45,852–45,599, while resistance is at Rs46,377–46,649. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. ENERGY Crude oil prices decline for 5th straight week amid fear of lower oil demand due to coronavirus. Trend weak. Review On Friday, crude oil settled on a weaker note in international markets as WTI crude settled at $50.36 per barrel, while Brent settled at $54.45 per barrel. Domestic markets also settled on a weaker note at Rs3,617 per barrel with a loss of 0.36%. Crude oil prices slipped again on Friday, the fifth straight weekly fall, amid fears of slower global crude oil demand due to the spread of the coronavirus from China to other countries. Chinese refiners are processing 15% less crude than before the outbreak as the infection crimps demand. Meanwhile, Russia hesitated to accept a proposal by OPEC+ countries to cut output by 600,000 barrels a day. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak promised an answer to the proposal in a few days. We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile, and $52 per barrel will act as major resistance for the prices. If prices sustain below $50 per barrel, they could test $48-47 per barrel in the coming days. Crude oil has support at $50.00–49.40 and resistance at $51.00–51.40Crude oil has support at Rs3,579–3,541, while resistance is at Rs3,664–3,711; traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss.. BASE METALS Base metals bleed due to spreading coronavirus and strength in dollar index. Trend volatile. Review On Friday, base metals settled on a weaker note in international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,656.00 per metric ton with a loss of 1.53% from the previous close. Base metal prices witnessed weaker trend on Friday due to the mounting fear of the coronavirus outbreak in China after death toll rose. Base metals also struggled due to strength in the dollar index. Even upbeat US manufacturing, non-farm employment change and unemployment claims data were unable to support prices. We expect prices of base metals to remain volatile and selling pressure is expected on every rise till the coronavirus outbreak is brought under control in China. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs429–427, while resistance is at Rs434–437. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs928–956, zinc should trade in the range of Rs167–173, lead should trade in the range of Rs143–147, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs136–140Copper has support at Rs429 and Rs427, while resistance is at Rs434 and Rs437; traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. AGRI COMMODITIES Strength in the dollar index and fear of coronavirus pushes agricultural commodities down. Trend volatile. Review On Friday, most of the agricultural commodities slipped again amid persisting fears of the coronavirus outbreak among global economies. The rising death toll in China is again putting pressure on prices of oil seeds, edible oil and other agricultural commodities. Strength in the dollar index also puts pressure on the entire agriculture commodities pack. Bursa Malaysia KLC also closed negative. Soybean February futures settled on a weaker note in domestic markets at Rs4,070 per quintal with a loss of 1.21%. CBOT settled at 883 cents. Other agricultural commodities also settled on a weaker note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a loss of 0.89%, and castor seed futures settled with a loss of 0.26%. RM seed closed with a loss of 0.37%. Guar seed settled with a loss of 1.21%, and guar gum also settled with a loss of 1.22%. The spices pack also settled on a weaker note; coriander, jeera and turmeric all settled negative. Cotton seed oilcake February futures closed negative with a loss of 1.15%. Refined soy oil February futures closed positive at Rs850.00. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs840–864Soybean has support at Rs4,040–4,000, while resistance is at Rs4,110–4,140. Refined soy oil has support at Rs844–840, while resistance is at Rs858–864. Traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop-loss. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report. )