Currency Weekly Research Report – 26th April to 3rd May 2019



  • Germany's IFO said on Wednesday that the business climate index fell from a revised 99.7 points in March to 99.2 points in April, when the market was expecting a rise to 99.9.
  • US initial jobless claims registered 230,000, up 37,000 from the previous week's revised level, the Department of Labour reported on Thursday.
  • Japan unemployment rate rose to 2.5%, against economists' median forecast for 2.4%, figures from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed.
  • European Commission said a flash estimate showed euro zone consumer morale decreased to -7.9 this month from -7.2 in March.
  • US gross domestic product registered a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2% growth in the first three months of 2019, above expectations for a reading of 2.0% and an increase from 2.2% in the final three months of last year.
  • Japan Industrial output in January-March tumbled 2.6% the biggest decline since April-June 2014.
  • Bank of Japan keeps deposit rate at -0.1%, keeps 10-yr yield target around 0%, maintains promise to buy JGBs at 80 tln yen annual pace.
  • Japan CPI, which includes oil products but excludes volatile fresh food costs rose to 0.8% In February, annual core consumer inflation hit 0.7 percent.
  • US new home sales surged 4.5% in March compared to 2.5% fall expected by market participants.


NSE/BSE/MSEI May Futures

 Currency NSE BSE MSEI May future Weekly 26th April to 3rd May 2019

Currency agsint U.S. Dollar

Currency Currency against US Dollar Weekly 26th April to 3rd May 2019

Foreign Exchange reserves, in Billion $

Currency Foregin exchange reserves in billion dollar Weekly 26th April to 3rd May 2019


Currency USD INR May Future Weekly 26th April to 3rd May 2019

Dollar/rupee witnessed 0.77% it biggest weekly gain since 6 January 2019 and settled at 70.33 compared to 69.49 levels. A speculative jumped it Brent which surged above $75 a barrel level, supported by tighter US sanctions against Iran and ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts, dampening the impact of a sharp rise in crude oil inventories in the US has lifted strong buying activities during the week. However, it gave up somewhat gain as local debt prices ended higher after the weekly auction by the Reserve Bank of India was fully subscribed and Brent crude oil prices tumbled on the back of comments from Trump that he talked to OPEC and told them to get the price of oil down.

Technical, on the weekly chart, USDINR Future trading on verge of its massive resistance 70.75 and break above would open the door for next resistance 71.00-71.25. Failure of the break only could create probability for correction towards 69.80-69.50 again.


Currency Dollar index Weekly 26th April to 3rd May 2019

Dollar index settled with 0.69% weekly gain at 98.05 compared to previous week close of 97.38 levels. It jumped towards two year high 98.33 against the euro and continued firm versus other major counterparts too after central banks around the world turn dovish amid expectations of an upbeat GDP data from the US. However, dollar index gave up somewhat gain on bet that Federal Reserve will cut rates after better-than-expected U.S. first-quarter growth. Interest rates moved lower Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.504% and is down 6.8% this year.

Technical, An ascending triangle breakout was noted on the weekly chart which creating probability for 1.50-2% bullish rally from the current level and the upside level expect towards 98.80—99.50 levels. On the downside, crucial support is 97.40-96.85.


Currency EUR INR May Future weekly 26th April to 3rd May 2019 

Euro/Rupee remained mixed node in last week and settled at 78.57 with 0.24% loss. Pair traded down over the Euro zone’s economic growth concerns after the dismal German IFO data amid strong greenback. Earlier, Euro fell to nearly two-year low after disappointing German business morale data amid Brexit woes. However, bets that Federal Reserve will cut rates after better-thanexpected U.S. first-quarter growth supported it against the dollar on Friday.

Technically, weekly price action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick which is indication for indecision in near term. This week, 79.25 will act as a massive resistance and break above could result in upside move towards 79.80 and above. Failure of the break could witness correction towards 78.00 again.


Currency GBP INR May Future Weekly 26th April to 3rd May 2019 

Pound/Rupee remained indecisive last week and settled at 90.96 compared to 90.99 almost flat. Pair traded lower against the US dollar as hopes of a breakthrough in Brexit talks in the cross-party meet faded and UK Prime Minister Theresa May faced growing pressure to quit. Reports showed that PM May want to hold the vote this week so that her government can press ahead with Brexit after weeks of impasse.

Technically, cluster of indecisive candle stick on the weekly chart is creating probability for volatile trend in GBPINR as Brexit uncertainty is expect to hold sideways sentiment in the currency. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 90.10 and break below would extend the recent losses and it may test 89.70-89.50, else pair expect to consolidate around 90.50-91.50 levels.


High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week

Currency High Impact Eco Data & Events Schedule during the week Weekly 26th April to 3rd May 2019

Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Tickerplant
*DOS- Depends on statement. DOV- Depends on Votes. DOR- Depends on Report.


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Share Market Today - 3rd May 2019

MARKET RECAP                                                               Key Market Data PointsThe choppiness persisted on the D – street for fourth consecutive trading session yesterday. The domestic indices yet again remained stuck in a range throughout the session to close flat. Nifty spot sneaked just below 11700 mark during the first half but strong buying in the later part of the session helped the index to recover majority of its losses to rise towards 11800 zone. Eventually, the index closed in red with marginal loss. Meanwhile the Nifty bank still remained under pressure to close below 30K mark. As the day progressed, market breadth turned in the favour of declining counters which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, apart from NIFTY FIN SRV (+0.23%) and NIFTY REALTY (+0.12%) all the other group indices close in negative terrain. With regards to losers, NIFTY IT (-1.81%) and NIFTY MEDIA (-1.60%) stocks remained under pressure. From the F&O space, JETAIRWAYS (-22.22%), RPOWER (-11.38%) and ESCORTS (-8.37%) were the biggest laggards. MARKET OUTLOOK NIFTY Hourly CHART :Although volatile but the index Nifty oscillated in a broader range throughout the session. Despite such volatility, there are no major changes in price structure of Nifty spot. Thus we maintain our stance that if the support of 11550 is held then we might witness an extended relief rally going ahead. A convincing close above 11750 might pull the index towards all-time high or may be 12000 also. Although we are bullish for short term but we continue to maintain our medium term view that this rally should be used to book profits in long positions. In case of any downside, 11650 – 11550 levels are likely to attract buying interest in coming sessions. Due to election activities we expect some volatility and thus continue to advice traders to avoid overleveraged positions and maintain strict stop loss.Disclaimer)

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Weekly BSE & NSE Gainers & Losers - 29th Apr to 3rd May 2019

MARKET OUTLOOK The week went by was a truncated where we witnessed only three trading sessions. The domestic markets remained choppy in the absence of any further triggers. The index Nifty spot remained stuck in a range of 140 points to close extremely flat. On the other hand, even Nifty Bank index too remained flat to close with marginal loss of (-0.20%). During the process we witnessed heavy selling in individual stocks and that was reflected in volatility index VIX which surged more than 10%. On the sectoral front, NIFTY PHARMA (-2.55%) and NIFTY IT (-2.49%) counters were the biggest laggards whereas the NIFTY METAL (+1.14%) and NIFTY FIN SERV (+1.05%) stocks outperformed other group indices. The given daily chart of Nifty spot indicates that the index is stuck in a broad range of 11550 – 11810. At this juncture, we are trading near the upper range and thus for further upside Nifty needs to clear 11800 mark. In such scenario, Nifty has potential to reach 12000 and above levels. On the downside, the intermediate support is placed at 11650 but 11550 level is the trend decider. Traders can use any dip towards 11650 to add fresh long in index futures with a stop of 11550 in spot. Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions.   Chart 2 : AJANTAPHARMA – Weekly (Prev. Close : 1052)The stock is stuck just below the placement of falling trend line on the weekly chart. Only a move above the same could trigger fresh upside. (Neutral)Source: IndiaNivesh Research Chart 3 : FEDBANK – Weekly (Prev. Close : 97.65)The stock confirmed a bullish trend line breakout few weeks back and then retested the same. Currently it is on the verge of fresh breakout. (Bullish)Source: IndiaNivesh Research Chart 4 : BIOCON - Weekly (Prev. Close : 551)The stock has confirmed trend line breakdown on the weekly chart. This might trigger fresh downside in the coming weeks. (Bearish)Source: IndiaNivesh Research   Chart 5: BATAINDIA – Daily (Prev. Close : 1442)The stock has reached its strong support zone formed by the placement of rising trend line on the daily chart. A breakdown could lead to some correction. (Neutral)Source: IndiaNivesh ResearchTrend lines are a visual representation of support and resistance in any timeframe and a simple tool available for trend analysis. The greater the number of touch points increases the importance, break on the either side may lead to major moves or trend reversals. The above charts will help you go through recent trend line breakouts / breakdowns.NIFTY 50 Stocks Above / Below 200 DSMA   NIFTY 50 - Overbought / OversoldStocks above 70 & below 30 Relative Strength IndexSource: IndiaNivesh ResearchRSI- The above shown chart represents the comparison of price action of benchmark index Nifty vis a vis the overbought/ oversold zone of Nifty 50 stocks considering the value of daily RSI.The Overbought zone occurs when the RSI value crosses 70 levels while the oversold zone occurs when it plunges below 30 levels.As per last three years data, we can analyse that, whenever the number of overbought stocks in Nifty 50 goes above 13 the market tend to make an intermediate top, while oversold position occurs when number of oversold stocks of Nifty 50 goes above 13 the market tend to form intermediate bottom.Currently the number of overbought / oversold stocks in NIFTY is negligible which indicates that the market has a potential to move in either direction. WEEKLY DERIVATIVES ANALYSIS  Open Interest Shockers Nifty Option SnapshotFor the coming week, max OI concentration is between 11800 CE and 11700 PE which defines a small range of 100 points. A move above or below the same might dictate further trend for the index.     Disclaimer)

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