Share Market Today 5th March 2020

Daily change & technical levels Scrip Close Change (%) R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 GOLD 43474 3.62 44599 44036 42955 42392 41311 SILVER 46378 3.07 47876 47127 46101 45352 44326 CRUDE 3457 0.76 3633 3545 3489 3401 3345 NG 133.70 4.70 139.00 136.40 132.60 130.00 126.20 ALUMINI 137.55 -0.76 141.30 139.40 137.90 136.00 134.50 COPPER 425.65 -0.78 436.20 430.90 426.70 421.40 417.10 LEADMINI 143.65 -0.42 146.70 145.20 144.10 142.60 141.50 NICKEL 936.40 0.25 959.20 947.80 936.10 924.70 913.00 ZINCMINI 154.15 -1.34 159.80 157.00 155.00 152.20 150.20 DIAMOND 3666.85 0.57 3705.40 3686.10 3662.30 3643.10 3619.30 STEELLONG 31380 -0.16 31590 31480 31410 31300 31230   Comex division Bullions Last close Change (%) Gold $1644.40 3.11 Silver $17.19 2.74   Base metal inventory Scrip Inventory Change Alumni 1061375 -10500 Copper 211225 -5725 Lead 68575 +475 Nickel 235254 -114 Zinc 75025 -175 * Closing rates of 3 Mar & LME stock of 3 Mar BULLION Gold and silver prices skyrocket after US Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by 50bps. Trend volatile. Review On Tuesday, gold and silver prices settled on a positive note in international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,644.40 per troy ounce, up by 3.11%, while silver May futures settled at $17.19 per troy ounce, up by 2.74%. Due to weakness in the rupee, domestic markets also settled on a positive note. Gold settled at Rs43,474 per 10 grams with a gain of 3.62%, and silver settled at Rs46,378 per kilogram with a gain of 3.07%. Gold and silver prices extended gains on Tuesday after the US Federal Reserve cut key interest rates by 50 basis points. The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate—the Fed funds rate—by 0.5% to counter the negative economic aspects of the coronavirus outbreak. The rate now stands at 1.0 to 1.25%. After interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, the 10 year bond yield in the US slipped below 1%, and aggressive buying was seen in both precious metals. We expect both precious metals to remain volatile. Gold has support at $1,632–1,622 and resistance is at $1,654–1,666. Silver has support at $17.00–16.70, while resistance is at $17.44–17.70. Today, gold has support at Rs42,392–41,311, while resistance is at Rs44,036–44,599. Silver has support at Rs45,352–44,326, while resistance is at Rs47,127–47,876. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. ENERGY WTI Crude oil extends gain on the hope of deep production cut by OPEC and Russia. Trend volatile. Review On Tuesday, crude oil settled on a mixed note in international markets as WTI crude settled at $47.18 per barrel, while Brent settled at $51.89 per barrel. Domestic markets also settled on a positive note at Rs3,457 per barrel with a gain of 0.76%. Crude oil prices gained in the early trading session on Tuesday on the hope of a deeper production cut by the OPEC and Russia in the forthcoming meet this week. But after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, profit booking was seen at higher levels. Fear of the coronavirus is slowing down global oil demand and the OPEC+ countries are expected to cut production by at least 1.0 million barrels per day to stabilize global crude oil prices. A panel of the OPEC and its allies recommended cutting oil output by an extra 1 million barrels per day on Tuesday, signaling that Russia and Saudi Arabia were moving closer to a deal to prop up prices, which have been hit by the coronavirus outbreak. We expect crude oil prices remain volatile and $48.80-50 per barrel will act as a major resistance for the prices. We expect prices to move both sides ahead of the OPEC+ meeting this week. Crude oil has support at $46.00–45.50 and resistance is at $47.80–48.50. Crude oil has support at Rs3,401–3,345, while resistance is at Rs3,545–3,633; traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. BASE METALS Base metals plunge despite 50 basis points interest rate cuts by US Federal Reserve. Trend volatile. Review On Tuesday, base metals settled on a mixed note in international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,658.25 per metric ton with a loss of 1.39% from the previous close. Base metal prices plunged on Tuesday despite a 50 basis points interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. This was the biggest interest rate cut from US Federal Reserve after the 2008 financial crisis. However, base metal prices were unable to sustain at higher levels due to the heavy selloff in global financial markets, and the US 10-year bond yield slumped to record lows. We expect base metal prices to remain volatile today and hold key support levels. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs421–417, while resistance is at Rs431–436. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs922–958, zinc should trade in the range of Rs151–158, lead should trade in the range of Rs141–146, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs136–140. Copper has support at Rs421 and Rs417, while resistance is at Rs431 and Rs436; traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. AGRI COMMODITIES Agricultural commodities recover due to short covering and value buying at lower levels. Trend volatile. Review On Tuesday, agricultural commodities witnessed some recovery in domestic markets due to short covering and value buying at lower levels. Most of the agricultural commodities settled on a positive note at NCDEX. Bursa Malaysia KLC also settled positive. Soybean March futures settled on a positive note in domestic markets at Rs3,716 per quintal with a gain of 1.59%. CBOT settled at 904 cents. Other agricultural commodities also settled on a positive note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a gain of 1.14%, while castor seed futures settled with a gain of 0.75%. RM seed April futures closed with a gain of 0.79%. Guar seed settled with a gain of 3.99%, and guar gum also settled with a gain of 3.99%. The spices pack also settled on a positive note; coriander, jeera and turmeric settled positive. Cotton seed oilcake March futures closed positive with a gain of 3.98%. Refined soy oil March futures closed positive at Rs779.60. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs766–792. Soybean has support at Rs3,680–3,655, while resistance is at Rs3,750–3,770. Refined soy oil has support at Rs772–766, while resistance is at Rs786–792. Traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news.   Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)

The USDINR pair had a volatile trade yesterday and, after swinging between gains and losses, settled at 73.6925 as compared to Tuesday’s close of 73.507, up 0.24%. The pair hit 73.8975, the highest level since 21 October 2018, after a report of new coronavirus cases in India. According to recent reports, 15 Italian tourists tested positive for coronavirus and are currently in the ITBP Chhawla camp in New Delhi. With these new cases, the total number of cases confirmed in India has gone up to 18. However, the pair retreated more than 40 paisa from the day’s high, on selling by nationalised banks likely on behalf of Reserve Bank of India in order to curb sharp volatility in the spot pair. Technically, the intraday price action resulted in the formation of a high-wave candlestick which is indicating a volatile momentum in the near future. However, the pair is still trading above its previous swing high of 73.05, which is still indicating a bullish momentum. Hence, any temporary correction towards 73.35–73.25 is expected to attract buying in the near future, and the next upside target is expected to be at 73.70-74.00 levels. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 72.80 and 72.55. Trend: Volatile The GBPINR retreated from the day’s high of 94.6475 and settled at 93.9575 levels as compared to the previous day’s close of 93.9725. The pair saw some pressure after soft services sector data released yesterday. The UK Markit services PMI rose to 53.2 in February from 53.3 January, missing market expectations of 53.3. Earlier in the morning, the pair opened positive, as after the incoming Bank of England governor said he would wait for more clarity about the virus before moving interest rates, rather than rushing to an emergency cut. Technically, on the EOD chart, the GBPINR pair is trading on the verge of an important resistance of 94.65, which coincides with its previous swing high and forms an indecisive candlestick on the chart, both of which are indicating a volatile to range-bound trade in the near future. On the upside, a break above 94.65 will extend the recent gains and the upside target is expected at 95.20–95.55. Alternatively, a failure to break this level will cause a correction towards the immediate support of 93.40–93.00 again. Trend: Volatile Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today  Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index unexpectedly rose 1.8 points to 57.3 in January, according to data Wednesday. Impact: High | Low | Medium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar. Technical chart source: TickerNews Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com *DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. )