< It was another disappointing session on D-Street for the domestic market. Initially, the index NIFTY spot started the week on an optimistic note, following positive global cues. As the day progressed, the NIFTY retested the 11,400 mark, but the sell-off during the final hour of the session forced the index to plunge almost 400 points from the high and registered an intraday low of 11,036. Eventually, it ended with a loss of 70 points near the 11,100 mark, whereas the NIFTY BANK index collapsed around 1,200 points from the day’s high to close deeply in the red.
The overall market breadth remained extremely week during the first half but turned negative at the end of the session. On the sectoral front, apart from NIFTY IT all the group indices ended with heavy losses due to broad-based selling. Among the losers, NIFTY PSU BANK and NIFTY MEDIA stocks were the worst performers. The broader market indices like the NIFTY MIDCAP100 and NIFTYSMLCAP100 ended with a loss of around 0.6% to 1.20%.
Market Outlook
< Since the beginning of this year, we have been mentioning that the index NIFTY has been trading in a long-term rising channel and the chances of it retesting the lower range are quite high. In line with that view, the NIFTY finally took a dip towards the 11,000 mark and exactly tested the lower end of this channel. Going forward, 11,000 would act as a strong support for the index in the forthcoming session.
< If that is breached on a closing basis, then the next target could be 10,600 for the coming weeks. On the upside, the intermediate resistance is placed at the 11,200 mark. Only a close above this level might provide some relief for the markets. In that scenario, we expect the bounce to be sharper and towards the 11,500 mark.
Bank Nifty Outlook
< With a fall of more than 1200 points during yesterday’s session, the index NIFTY BANK is trading below the 29,000 mark and has entered an oversold zone in the intraday time frame. Currently, it is trading near the support of 28500 - 28350. Similar to NIFTY, there is a possibility of bounce bank in NIFTY BANK index.
However, 30,000 is likely to remain a strong resistance for the index, from where selling could remerge. Traders are advised to remain light and avoid any aggressive bets
Note on Participants Activity
< In index futures, FIIs remained bullish by unwinding heavy short positions and adding some longs. In index options they remained neutral by buying both CE and PE options.
< In rupee terms, FII bought index futures of 3159 crores and index options they were buyers of 4217 crores.
< In cash segment, FII were sellers of around 1355 crores while DIIs bought equities worth 1139 crores.
Derivative Outlook
< Yesterday’s price action of NIFTY future was highly volatile with a decline in OI by 9%. The volumes too were high which indicates unwinding of both long and shorts.
< The premium of NIFTY Future is now at -9 from 52 points. The PCR has reached 1.14 from 1.01 which is slightly in an oversold zone.
< As per the NIFTY option chain overall OI at 11000 strike PE is now at 1.5 million shares which can act as support. On the upside, there is OI built up in 11300 CE options of around 1.3 million shares which indicate resistance there.
Exhibit 6: LONG BUILT UP
SYMBOL
Close
Price change %
OI
OI Change %
NAUKRI
2688
3.46%
266200
76.29%
ESCORTS
847.45
8.60%
5090800
26.90%
BANDHANBNK
394.8
2.81%
3176400
17.85%
MINDTREE
929.5
2.10%
1184800
17.17%
IBULHSGFIN
284.8
2.30%
22888800
10.14%
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Exhibit 7: SHORT BUILT UP
SYMBOL
Close
Price change %
OI
OI Change %
PVR
1665.2
-9.93%
1114800
38.24%
INDIGO
1208.9
-5.84%
3374700
24.27%
MOTHERSUMI
100.05
-2.10%
24310000
18.15%
JUBLFOOD
1658.9
-5.10%
2476000
9.12%
BALKRISIND
1067.55
-2.71%
1680000
8.81%
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Exhibit 8: LONG UNWINDING
SYMBOL
Close
Price change %
OI
OI Change %
TATACHEM
700.85
-1.48%
1101600
-44.69%
IDEA
3.45
-11.54%
459228000
-9.85%
NIFTY
11123.7
-0.23%
15238575
-9.09%
NTPC
101.7
-2.49%
75806400
-8.88%
BIOCON
280.95
-2.09%
10658200
-7.43%
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Exhibit 9: SHORT COVERING
SYMBOL
Close
Price change %
OI
OI Change %
TORNTPOWER
308.3
2.51%
3711000
-14.51%
L&TFH
102.4
2.40%
18978400
-11.54%
NIFTYIT
15410
1.83%
4550
-9.90%
EICHERMOT
16952.5
2.19%
254160
-9.02%
NIITTECH
1767.1
5.86%
566625
-7.30%
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Nifty 50 Pivots
SYMBOL
Close
S2
S1
Pivot
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
340.65
330.58
335.62
343.33
348.37
356.08
ASIANPAINT
1786.80
1729.63
1758.22
1797.83
1826.42
1866.03
AXISBANK
684.20
652.97
668.58
690.92
706.53
728.87
BAJAJ-AUTO
2792.20
2663.73
2727.97
2836.23
2900.47
3008.73
BAJFINANCE
4360.75
4115.82
4238.28
4428.12
4550.58
4740.42
BAJAJFINSV
8914.50
8515.50
8715.00
9007.50
9207.00
9499.50
BPCL
412.35
384.88
398.62
420.23
433.97
455.58
BHARTIARTL
518.35
497.92
508.13
522.07
532.28
546.22
INFRATEL
216.85
201.72
209.28
217.77
225.33
233.82
BRITANNIA
2949.10
2847.07
2898.08
2976.02
3027.03
3104.97
CIPLA
401.95
386.02
393.98
402.62
410.58
419.22
COALINDIA
169.35
164.18
166.77
170.88
173.47
177.58
DRREDDY
2905.55
2805.02
2855.28
2926.27
2976.53
3047.52
EICHERMOT
17013.40
16006.53
16509.97
17146.43
17649.87
18286.33
GAIL
99.65
93.25
96.45
101.90
105.10
110.55
GRASIM
668.45
631.55
650.00
675.75
694.20
719.95
HCLTECH
549.70
523.13
536.42
551.13
564.42
579.13
HDFCBANK
1179.60
1147.30
1163.45
1182.30
1198.45
1217.30
HEROMOTOCO
1975.45
1866.48
1920.97
2015.48
2069.97
2164.48
HINDALCO
149.75
138.08
143.92
152.68
158.52
167.28
HINDUNILVR
2159.45
2080.98
2120.22
2181.08
2220.32
2281.18
HDFC
2179.65
2099.38
2139.52
2193.93
2234.07
2288.48
ICICIBANK
506.10
486.27
496.18
508.37
518.28
530.47
ITC
195.30
187.67
191.48
197.47
201.28
207.27
IOC
103.95
96.85
100.40
106.65
110.20
116.45
INDUSINDBK
1079.25
1028.52
1053.88
1095.42
1120.78
1162.32
INFY
741.05
714.75
727.90
746.90
760.05
779.05
JSWSTEEL
235.00
221.80
228.40
237.45
244.05
253.10
KOTAKBANK
1599.00
1553.73
1576.37
1606.83
1629.47
1659.93
LT
1160.90
1112.80
1136.85
1174.60
1198.65
1236.40
M&M
458.30
430.27
444.28
458.37
472.38
486.47
MARUTI
6285.15
6135.35
6210.25
6324.90
6399.80
6514.45
NTPC
103.90
98.23
101.07
105.53
108.37
112.83
NESTLEIND
16109.95
15694.65
15902.30
16108.65
16316.30
16522.65
ONGC
89.10
84.03
86.57
90.78
93.32
97.53
POWERGRID
183.50
178.70
181.10
184.15
186.55
189.60
RELIANCE
1316.15
1260.85
1288.50
1328.75
1356.40
1396.65
SBIN
287.40
266.53
276.97
294.48
304.92
322.43
SUNPHARMA
369.50
351.87
360.68
372.17
380.98
392.47
TCS
2001.30
1945.40
1973.35
2013.65
2041.60
2081.90
TATAMOTORS
125.40
117.60
121.50
127.70
131.60
137.80
TATASTEEL
39.95
36.72
38.33
40.62
42.23
44.52
TECHM
744.55
724.42
734.48
744.47
754.53
764.52
TITAN
1244.15
1189.38
1216.77
1255.38
1282.77
1321.38
UPL
514.35
489.85
502.10
521.85
534.10
553.85
ULTRACEMCO
4141.70
3941.10
4041.40
4178.85
4279.15
4416.60
VEDL
110.95
102.72
106.83
113.12
117.23
123.52
WIPRO
220.80
213.47
217.13
222.07
225.73
230.67
YESBANK
31.55
26.55
29.05
32.30
34.80
38.05
ZEEL
233.85
218.52
226.18
237.57
245.23
256.62
Note: The levels for TATASTEEL are of TATASTEEL Partly Paid up Share.
Disclaimer: Investment in securities market / Mutual Funds are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 02-MAR-2020
Daily change & technical levels
Scrip
Close
Change (%)
R2
R1
Pivot
S1
S2
GOLD
41397
-2.33
43278
42338
41806
40866
40334
SILVER
44403
-4.83
47535
45969
44963
43397
42391
CRUDE
3263
-3.89
3421
3342
3274
3195
3127
NG
124.30
-0.40
132.00
128.10
124.00
120.00
115.80
ALUMINI
136.70
1.48
138.70
137.70
135.80
134.80
132.90
COPPER
421.85
-0.14
429.30
425.60
420.40
416.70
411.60
LEADMINI
143.75
1.27
147.70
145.70
142.60
140.70
137.60
NICKEL
901.00
-0.42
923.20
912.10
900.60
889.50
878.00
ZINCMINI
154.85
1.14
160.75
157.80
154.00
151.05
147.25
DIAMOND
3635.25
1.37
3675.50
3655.40
3626.70
3606.60
3577.90
STEELLONG
31740
-0.31
31910
31830
31750
31670
31590
Comex division
Bullions
Last close
Change (%)
Gold
$1587.15
-3.37
Silver
$16.55
-6.30
Base metal inventory
Scrip
Inventory
Change
Alumni
1082150
-10125
Copper
238175
-1700
Lead
67800
+250
Nickel
235428
+5568
Zinc
75275
-150
* Closing rates of 28 Feb & LME stock of 28 Feb
BULLION
Gold and silver crash as precious metals witness coronavirus-led free fall. Trend volatile.
Review
On Friday, gold and silver prices settled on a weaker note in international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,587.15 per troy ounce, down by 3.37%, while silver March futures settled at $16.55 per troy ounce, down by 6.30%. Domestic markets also settled on a weaker note. Gold settled at Rs41,397 per 10 grams with a loss of 2.33%, and silver settled at Rs44,403 per kilogram with a loss of 4.83%. Gold and silver extended the fall on Friday due to extreme volatility in the global financial markets. Both precious metals saw a sharp upswing in the prices at the start of the last week, and gold hit a seven-year high of $1,688.66 on Monday, but it posted the biggest weekly decline since November. Silver also slipped from record highs. The rapid spread of the coronavirus raised fears of a pandemic, with six countries reporting their first cases and the World Health Organization warning it could spread worldwide. Panic over the virus sent stock markets across the world on course for their worst weekly fall since 2008, with almost $6 trillion wiped out from their market value last week. We expect both the precious metals remain volatile this week. Gold has support at $1,574–1,566 and resistance is at $1,600–1,614. Silver has support at $16.40–16.16, while resistance is at $16.80–17.00.
Today, gold has support at Rs40,866–40,334, while resistance is at Rs42,338–43,278. Silver has support at Rs43,397–42,391, while resistance is at Rs45,969–47,535. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss.
ENERGY
Crude oil crashes on Friday; worst weekly crash in oil prices since 2008 financial crisis. Trend volatile.
Crude oil has support at Rs3,195–3,127, while resistance is at Rs3,342–3,421; traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss.
BASE METALS
Base metals recover from their lows after Fed comment for interest rate cuts. Trend volatile.
Review
On Friday, base metals settled on a mixed note in the international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,590.00 per metric ton with a loss of 1.15% from the previous close. Base metal prices plunged again on Friday but prices recovered from their lows after a statement from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for interest rate cuts to support financial markets. Global financial markets crashed last week due to the effect of coronavirus and base metals also slipped to record lows. Global demand of base metals fell and the IMF also downgraded the global growth outlook last week. We expect base metal prices to remain volatile this week and a dead cat bounce is expected due to short coverings. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs417–412, while resistance is at Rs426–429. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs884–922, zinc should trade in the range of Rs151–158, lead should trade in the range of Rs141–147, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs135–139.
Copper has support at Rs417 and Rs412, while resistance is at Rs426 and Rs429; traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss.
AGRI COMMODITIES
Agricultural commodities crash again; worst week for edible oils and oil seeds. Trend volatile.
Review
On Friday, agricultural commodities plunged again. Most of the agricultural commodities settled in the red due to coronavirus impact, and after the WHO health advisory on other countries. It was the worst week for oil seeds and edible oils. Bursa Malaysia KLC also settled negative. Soybean March futures settled on a weaker note in domestic markets at Rs3,700 per quintal with a loss of 2.53%. CBOT settled at 893 cents. Other agricultural commodities settled on a mixed note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a loss of 0.15%, while castor seed futures settled with a gain of 0.05%. RM seed April futures closed with a loss of 0.50%. Guar seed settled with a loss of 0.71%, and guar gum also settled with a loss of 1.84%. The spices pack settled on a mixed note; jeera settled positive, while coriander and turmeric settled negative. Cotton seed oil cake March futures closed positive with a gain of 2.65%. Refined soy oil March futures closed negative at Rs766.60. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs755–778.
Soybean has support at Rs3,670–3,655, while resistance is at Rs3,740–3,785. Refined soy oil has support at Rs758–755, while resistance is at Rs772–778. Traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss.News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
Share Market Today 3rd March 2020
Market Recap
< It was another disappointing session on D-Street for the domestic market. Initially, the index NIFTY spot started the week on an optimistic note, following positive global cues. As the day progressed, the NIFTY retested the 11,400 mark, but the sell-off during the final hour of the session forced the index to plunge almost 400 points from the high and registered an intraday low of 11,036. Eventually, it ended with a loss of 70 points near the 11,100 mark, whereas the NIFTY BANK index collapsed around 1,200 points from the day’s high to close deeply in the red.
The overall market breadth remained extremely week during the first half but turned negative at the end of the session. On the sectoral front, apart from NIFTY IT all the group indices ended with heavy losses due to broad-based selling. Among the losers, NIFTY PSU BANK and NIFTY MEDIA stocks were the worst performers. The broader market indices like the NIFTY MIDCAP100 and NIFTYSMLCAP100 ended with a loss of around 0.6% to 1.20%.Market Outlook
< Since the beginning of this year, we have been mentioning that the index NIFTY has been trading in a long-term rising channel and the chances of it retesting the lower range are quite high. In line with that view, the NIFTY finally took a dip towards the 11,000 mark and exactly tested the lower end of this channel. Going forward, 11,000 would act as a strong support for the index in the forthcoming session.
< If that is breached on a closing basis, then the next target could be 10,600 for the coming weeks. On the upside, the intermediate resistance is placed at the 11,200 mark. Only a close above this level might provide some relief for the markets. In that scenario, we expect the bounce to be sharper and towards the 11,500 mark.
Bank Nifty Outlook
< With a fall of more than 1200 points during yesterday’s session, the index NIFTY BANK is trading below the 29,000 mark and has entered an oversold zone in the intraday time frame. Currently, it is trading near the support of 28500 - 28350. Similar to NIFTY, there is a possibility of bounce bank in NIFTY BANK index.
However, 30,000 is likely to remain a strong resistance for the index, from where selling could remerge. Traders are advised to remain light and avoid any aggressive betsNote on Participants Activity
< In index futures, FIIs remained bullish by unwinding heavy short positions and adding some longs. In index options they remained neutral by buying both CE and PE options.
< In rupee terms, FII bought index futures of 3159 crores and index options they were buyers of 4217 crores.
< In cash segment, FII were sellers of around 1355 crores while DIIs bought equities worth 1139 crores.
Derivative Outlook
< Yesterday’s price action of NIFTY future was highly volatile with a decline in OI by 9%. The volumes too were high which indicates unwinding of both long and shorts.
< The premium of NIFTY Future is now at -9 from 52 points. The PCR has reached 1.14 from 1.01 which is slightly in an oversold zone.
< As per the NIFTY option chain overall OI at 11000 strike PE is now at 1.5 million shares which can act as support. On the upside, there is OI built up in 11300 CE options of around 1.3 million shares which indicate resistance there.
Exhibit 6: LONG BUILT UP
SYMBOL
Close
Price change %
OI
OI Change %
NAUKRI
2688
3.46%
266200
76.29%
ESCORTS
847.45
8.60%
5090800
26.90%
BANDHANBNK
394.8
2.81%
3176400
17.85%
MINDTREE
929.5
2.10%
1184800
17.17%
IBULHSGFIN
284.8
2.30%
22888800
10.14%
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Exhibit 7: SHORT BUILT UP
SYMBOL
Close
Price change %
OI
OI Change %
PVR
1665.2
-9.93%
1114800
38.24%
INDIGO
1208.9
-5.84%
3374700
24.27%
MOTHERSUMI
100.05
-2.10%
24310000
18.15%
JUBLFOOD
1658.9
-5.10%
2476000
9.12%
BALKRISIND
1067.55
-2.71%
1680000
8.81%
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Exhibit 8: LONG UNWINDING
SYMBOL
Close
Price change %
OI
OI Change %
TATACHEM
700.85
-1.48%
1101600
-44.69%
IDEA
3.45
-11.54%
459228000
-9.85%
NIFTY
11123.7
-0.23%
15238575
-9.09%
NTPC
101.7
-2.49%
75806400
-8.88%
BIOCON
280.95
-2.09%
10658200
-7.43%
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Exhibit 9: SHORT COVERING
SYMBOL
Close
Price change %
OI
OI Change %
TORNTPOWER
308.3
2.51%
3711000
-14.51%
L&TFH
102.4
2.40%
18978400
-11.54%
NIFTYIT
15410
1.83%
4550
-9.90%
EICHERMOT
16952.5
2.19%
254160
-9.02%
NIITTECH
1767.1
5.86%
566625
-7.30%
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Nifty 50 Pivots
SYMBOL
Close
S2
S1
Pivot
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
340.65
330.58
335.62
343.33
348.37
356.08
ASIANPAINT
1786.80
1729.63
1758.22
1797.83
1826.42
1866.03
AXISBANK
684.20
652.97
668.58
690.92
706.53
728.87
BAJAJ-AUTO
2792.20
2663.73
2727.97
2836.23
2900.47
3008.73
BAJFINANCE
4360.75
4115.82
4238.28
4428.12
4550.58
4740.42
BAJAJFINSV
8914.50
8515.50
8715.00
9007.50
9207.00
9499.50
BPCL
412.35
384.88
398.62
420.23
433.97
455.58
BHARTIARTL
518.35
497.92
508.13
522.07
532.28
546.22
INFRATEL
216.85
201.72
209.28
217.77
225.33
233.82
BRITANNIA
2949.10
2847.07
2898.08
2976.02
3027.03
3104.97
CIPLA
401.95
386.02
393.98
402.62
410.58
419.22
COALINDIA
169.35
164.18
166.77
170.88
173.47
177.58
DRREDDY
2905.55
2805.02
2855.28
2926.27
2976.53
3047.52
EICHERMOT
17013.40
16006.53
16509.97
17146.43
17649.87
18286.33
GAIL
99.65
93.25
96.45
101.90
105.10
110.55
GRASIM
668.45
631.55
650.00
675.75
694.20
719.95
HCLTECH
549.70
523.13
536.42
551.13
564.42
579.13
HDFCBANK
1179.60
1147.30
1163.45
1182.30
1198.45
1217.30
HEROMOTOCO
1975.45
1866.48
1920.97
2015.48
2069.97
2164.48
HINDALCO
149.75
138.08
143.92
152.68
158.52
167.28
HINDUNILVR
2159.45
2080.98
2120.22
2181.08
2220.32
2281.18
HDFC
2179.65
2099.38
2139.52
2193.93
2234.07
2288.48
ICICIBANK
506.10
486.27
496.18
508.37
518.28
530.47
ITC
195.30
187.67
191.48
197.47
201.28
207.27
IOC
103.95
96.85
100.40
106.65
110.20
116.45
INDUSINDBK
1079.25
1028.52
1053.88
1095.42
1120.78
1162.32
INFY
741.05
714.75
727.90
746.90
760.05
779.05
JSWSTEEL
235.00
221.80
228.40
237.45
244.05
253.10
KOTAKBANK
1599.00
1553.73
1576.37
1606.83
1629.47
1659.93
LT
1160.90
1112.80
1136.85
1174.60
1198.65
1236.40
M&M
458.30
430.27
444.28
458.37
472.38
486.47
MARUTI
6285.15
6135.35
6210.25
6324.90
6399.80
6514.45
NTPC
103.90
98.23
101.07
105.53
108.37
112.83
NESTLEIND
16109.95
15694.65
15902.30
16108.65
16316.30
16522.65
ONGC
89.10
84.03
86.57
90.78
93.32
97.53
POWERGRID
183.50
178.70
181.10
184.15
186.55
189.60
RELIANCE
1316.15
1260.85
1288.50
1328.75
1356.40
1396.65
SBIN
287.40
266.53
276.97
294.48
304.92
322.43
SUNPHARMA
369.50
351.87
360.68
372.17
380.98
392.47
TCS
2001.30
1945.40
1973.35
2013.65
2041.60
2081.90
TATAMOTORS
125.40
117.60
121.50
127.70
131.60
137.80
TATASTEEL
39.95
36.72
38.33
40.62
42.23
44.52
TECHM
744.55
724.42
734.48
744.47
754.53
764.52
TITAN
1244.15
1189.38
1216.77
1255.38
1282.77
1321.38
UPL
514.35
489.85
502.10
521.85
534.10
553.85
ULTRACEMCO
4141.70
3941.10
4041.40
4178.85
4279.15
4416.60
VEDL
110.95
102.72
106.83
113.12
117.23
123.52
WIPRO
220.80
213.47
217.13
222.07
225.73
230.67
YESBANK
31.55
26.55
29.05
32.30
34.80
38.05
ZEEL
233.85
218.52
226.18
237.57
245.23
256.62
Disclaimer: Investment in securities market / Mutual Funds are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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Commodity Report 2nd March 2020
Daily change & technical levels Scrip Close Change (%) R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 GOLD 41397 -2.33 43278 42338 41806 40866 40334 SILVER 44403 -4.83 47535 45969 44963 43397 42391 CRUDE 3263 -3.89 3421 3342 3274 3195 3127 NG 124.30 -0.40 132.00 128.10 124.00 120.00 115.80 ALUMINI 136.70 1.48 138.70 137.70 135.80 134.80 132.90 COPPER 421.85 -0.14 429.30 425.60 420.40 416.70 411.60 LEADMINI 143.75 1.27 147.70 145.70 142.60 140.70 137.60 NICKEL 901.00 -0.42 923.20 912.10 900.60 889.50 878.00 ZINCMINI 154.85 1.14 160.75 157.80 154.00 151.05 147.25 DIAMOND 3635.25 1.37 3675.50 3655.40 3626.70 3606.60 3577.90 STEELLONG 31740 -0.31 31910 31830 31750 31670 31590 Comex division Bullions Last close Change (%) Gold $1587.15 -3.37 Silver $16.55 -6.30 Base metal inventory Scrip Inventory Change Alumni 1082150 -10125 Copper 238175 -1700 Lead 67800 +250 Nickel 235428 +5568 Zinc 75275 -150 * Closing rates of 28 Feb & LME stock of 28 Feb BULLION Gold and silver crash as precious metals witness coronavirus-led free fall. Trend volatile. Review On Friday, gold and silver prices settled on a weaker note in international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,587.15 per troy ounce, down by 3.37%, while silver March futures settled at $16.55 per troy ounce, down by 6.30%. Domestic markets also settled on a weaker note. Gold settled at Rs41,397 per 10 grams with a loss of 2.33%, and silver settled at Rs44,403 per kilogram with a loss of 4.83%. Gold and silver extended the fall on Friday due to extreme volatility in the global financial markets. Both precious metals saw a sharp upswing in the prices at the start of the last week, and gold hit a seven-year high of $1,688.66 on Monday, but it posted the biggest weekly decline since November. Silver also slipped from record highs. The rapid spread of the coronavirus raised fears of a pandemic, with six countries reporting their first cases and the World Health Organization warning it could spread worldwide. Panic over the virus sent stock markets across the world on course for their worst weekly fall since 2008, with almost $6 trillion wiped out from their market value last week. We expect both the precious metals remain volatile this week. Gold has support at $1,574–1,566 and resistance is at $1,600–1,614. Silver has support at $16.40–16.16, while resistance is at $16.80–17.00. Today, gold has support at Rs40,866–40,334, while resistance is at Rs42,338–43,278. Silver has support at Rs43,397–42,391, while resistance is at Rs45,969–47,535. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. ENERGY Crude oil crashes on Friday; worst weekly crash in oil prices since 2008 financial crisis. Trend volatile. Crude oil has support at Rs3,195–3,127, while resistance is at Rs3,342–3,421; traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. BASE METALS Base metals recover from their lows after Fed comment for interest rate cuts. Trend volatile. Review On Friday, base metals settled on a mixed note in the international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,590.00 per metric ton with a loss of 1.15% from the previous close. Base metal prices plunged again on Friday but prices recovered from their lows after a statement from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for interest rate cuts to support financial markets. Global financial markets crashed last week due to the effect of coronavirus and base metals also slipped to record lows. Global demand of base metals fell and the IMF also downgraded the global growth outlook last week. We expect base metal prices to remain volatile this week and a dead cat bounce is expected due to short coverings. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs417–412, while resistance is at Rs426–429. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs884–922, zinc should trade in the range of Rs151–158, lead should trade in the range of Rs141–147, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs135–139. Copper has support at Rs417 and Rs412, while resistance is at Rs426 and Rs429; traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. AGRI COMMODITIES Agricultural commodities crash again; worst week for edible oils and oil seeds. Trend volatile. Review On Friday, agricultural commodities plunged again. Most of the agricultural commodities settled in the red due to coronavirus impact, and after the WHO health advisory on other countries. It was the worst week for oil seeds and edible oils. Bursa Malaysia KLC also settled negative. Soybean March futures settled on a weaker note in domestic markets at Rs3,700 per quintal with a loss of 2.53%. CBOT settled at 893 cents. Other agricultural commodities settled on a mixed note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a loss of 0.15%, while castor seed futures settled with a gain of 0.05%. RM seed April futures closed with a loss of 0.50%. Guar seed settled with a loss of 0.71%, and guar gum also settled with a loss of 1.84%. The spices pack settled on a mixed note; jeera settled positive, while coriander and turmeric settled negative. Cotton seed oil cake March futures closed positive with a gain of 2.65%. Refined soy oil March futures closed negative at Rs766.60. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs755–778. Soybean has support at Rs3,670–3,655, while resistance is at Rs3,740–3,785. Refined soy oil has support at Rs758–755, while resistance is at Rs772–778. Traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss.News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
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Share Market Today 4th March 2020
Market Recap Market Outlook Bank Nifty Outlook Note on Participants Activity Derivative Outlook Exhibit 6: LONG BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % PVR 1721.6 3.39% 1420400 27.41% NAUKRI 2799.85 4.16% 314400 18.11% HDFCLIFE 565.4 1.88% 1469700 16.73% JUBLFOOD 1688.95 1.81% 2823500 14.03% DIVISLAB 2186 3.36% 2172800 13.47% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Exhibit 7: SHORT BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % EQUITAS 105.4 -1.08% 17826200 5.76% ITC 194.7 -0.69% 149320800 3.00% CESC 634.55 -0.71% 1746400 1.96% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Exhibit 8: LONG UNWINDING SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % CONCOR 491.15 -0.79% 4784343 -5.50% BATAINDIA 1622.4 -0.41% 2478850 -2.91% BERGEPAINT 544.4 -1.59% 6331600 -1.67% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Exhibit 9: SHORT COVERING SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % TATACHEM 722.55 3.10% 402300 -63.48% EICHERMOT 17788.9 4.93% 216870 -14.67% NTPC 105.3 3.54% 67401600 -11.09% UJJIVAN 340.8 3.87% 5319300 -9.28% MFSL 591.95 2.92% 2380300 -6.87% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Corporate Action TATA Chemicals Limited Tata Chemicals will trade ex-Consumer Product Business from today (4th March 2020). Nifty 50 Pivots SYMBOL Close S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 347.30 339.07 343.18 346.12 350.23 353.17 ASIANPAINT 1800.55 1744.18 1772.37 1795.18 1823.37 1846.18 AXISBANK 687.15 665.18 676.17 685.98 696.97 706.78 BAJAJ-AUTO 2692.25 2614.75 2653.50 2691.75 2730.50 2768.75 BAJFINANCE 4454.10 4261.47 4357.78 4416.37 4512.68 4571.27 BAJAJFINSV 8963.65 8483.45 8723.55 8920.10 9160.20 9356.75 BPCL 425.00 408.23 416.62 421.88 430.27 435.53 BHARTIARTL 520.80 503.57 512.18 522.77 531.38 541.97 INFRATEL 219.35 207.18 213.27 219.13 225.22 231.08 BRITANNIA 3026.50 2931.83 2979.17 3012.33 3059.67 3092.83 CIPLA 425.30 391.63 408.47 418.83 435.67 446.03 COALINDIA 178.20 167.50 172.85 176.25 181.60 185.00 DRREDDY 3043.70 2870.90 2957.30 3017.65 3104.05 3164.40 EICHERMOT 17888.45 17135.48 17511.97 17776.48 18152.97 18417.48 GAIL 103.20 97.87 100.53 102.17 104.83 106.47 GRASIM 700.05 658.28 679.17 691.88 712.77 725.48 HCLTECH 565.05 549.18 557.12 562.93 570.87 576.68 HDFCBANK 1181.80 1161.03 1171.42 1178.38 1188.77 1195.73 HEROMOTOCO 2054.85 1943.72 1999.28 2031.57 2087.13 2119.42 HINDALCO 159.30 147.20 153.25 156.85 162.90 166.50 HINDUNILVR 2166.65 2118.08 2142.37 2165.98 2190.27 2213.88 HDFC 2191.40 2143.60 2167.50 2197.20 2221.10 2250.80 ICICIBANK 514.75 503.25 509.00 514.25 520.00 525.25 ITC 193.85 189.72 191.78 194.62 196.68 199.52 IOC 106.65 102.75 104.70 106.25 108.20 109.75 INDUSINDBK 1108.05 1054.72 1081.38 1099.67 1126.33 1144.62 INFY 747.00 731.33 739.17 749.08 756.92 766.83 JSWSTEEL 246.45 234.28 240.37 244.73 250.82 255.18 KOTAKBANK 1626.30 1567.20 1596.75 1616.55 1646.10 1665.90 LT 1181.30 1151.97 1166.63 1176.72 1191.38 1201.47 M&M 466.25 448.42 457.33 464.17 473.08 479.92 MARUTI 6386.05 6221.25 6303.65 6362.90 6445.30 6504.55 NTPC 108.90 102.07 105.48 107.72 111.13 113.37 NESTLEIND 16359.40 15960.80 16160.10 16329.55 16528.85 16698.30 ONGC 93.35 87.98 90.67 92.33 95.02 96.68 POWERGRID 191.70 176.83 184.27 189.48 196.92 202.13 RELIANCE 1342.85 1307.68 1325.27 1339.58 1357.17 1371.48 SBIN 289.85 280.75 285.30 289.85 294.40 298.95 SUNPHARMA 393.55 364.58 379.07 387.73 402.22 410.88 TCS 2036.20 1988.07 2012.13 2036.07 2060.13 2084.07 TATAMOTORS 130.35 122.85 126.60 129.00 132.75 135.15 TATASTEEL 41.85 39.28 40.57 41.28 42.57 43.28 TECHM 752.30 735.13 743.72 750.68 759.27 766.23 TITAN 1247.00 1201.00 1224.00 1248.00 1271.00 1295.00 UPL 521.55 506.15 513.85 520.25 527.95 534.35 ULTRACEMCO 4299.90 4090.70 4195.30 4262.15 4366.75 4433.60 VEDL 119.55 110.72 115.13 118.07 122.48 125.42 WIPRO 223.70 218.17 220.93 223.37 226.13 228.57 YESBANK 31.20 28.87 30.03 31.67 32.83 34.47 ZEEL 251.10 224.87 237.98 246.97 260.08 269.07 Note: The levels for TATASTEEL are of TATASTEEL Partly Paid up Share. Disclaimer: Investment in securities market / Mutual Funds are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing. )