Share Market Today 20th february 2020

Daily change & technical levels Scrip Close Change (%) R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 GOLD 41586 0.40 41787 41687 41518 41418 41249 SILVER 47570 0.65 47974 47772 47508 47306 47042 CRUDE 3850 3.00 3927 3888 3817 3778 3707 NG 140.50 -0.71 142.50 141.50 140.50 139.50 138.50 ALUMINI 138.45 0.29 139.25 138.85 138.25 137.85 137.25 COPPER 431.30 -0.07 436.70 434.00 431.25 428.55 425.80 LEADMINI 145.75 -0.58 147.90 146.80 146.00 144.90 144.10 NICKEL 944.00 0.62 957.50 950.80 943.40 936.70 929.30 ZINCMINI 166.65 -0.60 169.40 168.00 167.10 165.70 164.80 DIAMOND 3579.50 -0.05 3586.60 3583.00 3577.50 3573.90 3568.40 STEELLONG 31740 0.13 31930 31830 31710 31610 31490 Comex division Bullions Last close Change (%) Gold $1611.80   0.74 Silver $18.31   0.88 Base metal inventory Scrip Inventory Change Alumni 1177425 -14950 Copper 166475 +5075 Lead 66725 +0 Nickel 218214 +2412 Zinc 74700 -25 * Closing rates of 19 Feb & LME stock of 18 Feb   BULLION Gold and silver extend gains despite gains in dollar index. Trend firm. Review On Wednesday, gold and silver prices settled on a positive note in international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,611.80 per troy ounce, up by 0.74%, while silver March futures settled at $18.31 per troy ounce, up by 0.088%. Domestic markets were also settled on a positive note. Gold settled at Rs41,586 per 10 grams with a gain of 0.40%, and silver settled at Rs47,570 per kilogram with a gain of 0.65%. Gold and silver extended gains on Wednesday despite gains in the dollar index. Gold reached its lifetime high in domestic markets and silver also reached a five-week high. Despite upbeat US PPI, core PPI and housing starts data, both precious metals gained. Slower global growth and fear of coronavirus supported safe-haven buying in both precious metals. We expect prices of both precious metals to remain firm and the buy-on-dip strategy still works. Gold has support at $1,600–1,592 and resistance at $1,622–1,630. Silver has support at $18.18–18.00, while resistance is at $18.44–18.55. Today, gold has support at Rs41,418–41,249, while resistance is at Rs41,687–41,787. Silver has support at Rs47,306–47,042, while resistance is at Rs47,772–47,974. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. ENERGY Crude oil extends gain and reaches to two weeks high amid supply risk from Venezuela. Trend volatile. Review On Wednesday, crude oil settled on a positive note in international markets as WTI crude settled at $53.49 per barrel, while Brent settled at $59.31 per barrel. Domestic markets also settled on a positive note at Rs3,850 per barrel with a gain of 3.00%. Crude oil extended gain on Wednesday and reached a two-week high amid supply risk from Venezuela. The US sanctioned a unit of Russia’s Rosneft PJSC for maintaining ties with Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and the state-run oil company, putting Venezuela’s ability to export crude in jeopardy. Meanwhile, ceasefire talks were suspended in Libya after the capital’s port was shelled by forces loyal to military commander Khalifa Haftar, who has forced a blockade of the country’s exports. Fresh supply concerns from Venezuela and a fresh stimulus by the Chinese central bank to boost economic growth supported crude oil prices. We expect crude oil to hold the key support of $52 per barrel and to test $55 per barrel. Crude oil has support at $52.80–52.40 and resistance is at $54.50–55.00. Crude oil has support at Rs3,778–3,707, while resistance is at Rs3,888–3,927; traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. BASE METALS Base metals trade sideways due to record gains in dollar index. Trend volatile. Review On Wednesday, base metals settled on a mixed note in international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,782.25 per metric ton with a gain of 0.28% from the previous close. Base metal prices witnessed a mixed trend on Wednesday despite upbeat US PPI, core PPI and housing starts data. Strength in the dollar index and fear of coronavirus limited gains in the dollar index. The dollar index reached fresh highs and crossed the 99.40 mark, putting pressure on base metals prices. We expect base metals to trade sideways. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs429–426, while resistance is at Rs434–437. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs933–955, zinc should trade in the range of Rs164–169, lead should trade in the range of Rs144–148, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs137–140. Copper has support at Rs429 and Rs426, while resistance is at Rs434 and Rs437; traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. AGRI COMMODITIES Agricultural commodities extend fall on hope of record rabi crop production. Trend volatile. Review On Wednesday, agricultural commodities extended the fall on the hope of a record rabi crop production. As per the government’s second advance estimate, a bumper production of oil seeds, grains and pulses is expected in the rabi season. Bursa Malaysia KLC also settled negative. Soybean March futures settled on a weaker note in the domestic markets at Rs3,862 per quintal with a loss of 0.46%. CBOT settled at 896 cents. Other agricultural commodities settled on a mixed note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a loss of 0.86%, while castor seed futures settled with a loss of 0.96%. RM seed April futures closed with a gain of 0.15%. Guar seed settled with a gain of 0.37%, and guar gum also settled with a gain of 0.55%. The spices pack settled on a positive note; coriander, jeera and turmeric settled positive. Cotton seed oilcake March futures closed negative with a loss of 0.53%. Refined soy oil March futures closed negative at Rs803. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs792–812. Soybean has support at Rs3,830–3,830, while resistance is at Rs3,900–3,920. Refined soy oil has support at Rs796–792, while resistance is at Rs808–812. Traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)

Weekly change & technical levels NSE/BSE/MSEI February Futures Currency pair LTP Wk  % change R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2 USDINR 71.66 0.36 71.9067 72.1383 71.6083 71.3767 71.0783 EURINR 77.38 -0.17 77.5900 77.7950 77.4150 77.2100 77.0350 GBPINR 92.24 -0.98 93.0500 93.8700 92.5900 91.7700 91.3100 JPYINR 63.95 -1.78 64.8533 65.7667 64.3767 63.4633 62.9867   Currencies against the US dollar Currency pair LTP Wk  % change R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2 DOLLAR INDEX 99.34 0.18 99.8333 100.326 99.4167 98.9233 98.5067 EURUSD 1.0848 0.12 1.0881 1.0915 1.0830 1.0796 1.0745 GBPUSD 1.2958 0.60 1.3055 1.3153 1.2953 1.2855 1.2753 USDJPY 111.60 1.66 112.683 113.766 111.116 110.033 108.466   Foreign exchange reserves   14 February 2020 Weekly change Total reserves $476.092 billion by $2.763   Important highlights Japan's GDP fell 1.6% in Q4 as compared to the 0.4% growth in the previous quarter. Japan's GDP in the December quarter contracted by an annualized 6.3%, faster than the expected 3.7% contraction. Industrial production in Japan rose 1.2% in December, missing market expectation of a 1.3% rise. German ZEW economic sentiment fell to 8.7 in February from 26.7 in January, while the Eurozone economic sentiment fell to 10.4 in February compared to 25.6 in January. Trade deficit in Japan stood at 1.31 trillion yen ($12 billion), following an upwardly revised 154.55 billion yen deficit in December, and exports fell 2.6% from a year earlier to 5.43 trillion yen, down for the fourteenth straight month. Eurozone GDP grew 0.1% in the fourth quarter as compared to the 0.3% growth in the previous quarter. US services sector new business index dropped to 49.7, the lowest since October 2009, from 52.5 last month. Eurozone Composite Flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), seen as a good gauge of economic health, rose to 51.6 in February from January's final reading of 51.3. Minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday showed little inclination to loosen monetary policy, while Fed policymakers were cautiously optimistic over state of the US economy and hinted that interest rates would likely remain unchanged for now. US producer price index for final demand jumped 0.5% last month, the largest gain since October 2018, after climbing 0.2% in December. The USDINR pair gained 0.36% and settled at 71.6650 as compared to the previous week’s close of 71.4275. The pair inched higher to the two-week high of 71.8425, on increased safe-haven demand following renewed concerns over a sharp rise in the coronavirus death toll in China. The Brent climbed near $60 a barrel, while a firm greenback further aided gains in the pair. The greenback strengthened to a near three-year high against major counterparts on dwindling expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid the receding coronavirus scare. Technically, as per last week’s outlook, the USDINR pair found support around 71.25 and jumped towards 71.8425, close to the second predicted target of 71.85. The weekly price action resulted in the formation of a high-wave candlestick, which is indicating volatile to range-bound momentum in the near future. However, safe-haven currency demand could jump in the near future following the recent slump in the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, which dropped 0.68% against to the dollar, if the Chinese coronavirus outbreak does not come under control, and next upside momentum is expected to be at 72.40–72.60 levels. On the downside, only a break below 71.20 will cause selling pressure, and the pair may retreat towards immediate support of 70.90–70.65. The EURINR pair continued its recent bearish trend for third consecutive week and settled at 77.38 as compared to the previous day’s close of 77.5225. The pair dropped to the weekly low 77.2450, after weak German and Eurozone economic data release amid strong a greenback. However, the pair found some support around 77.30, as better-than-expected Eurozone composite purchasing managers' index data suggested the economic bloc has shrugged off the impact of the virus so far. On the weekly chart, formation of a high-wave candle stick is indicating a range-bound to indecisive trade in the near future. Now, 77.50 will act as a crucial support, and a break below 77.50 will lead to a further fall in the pair, and the next downside target is expected to be at 76.70. Alternatively, a failure to break this level could create a probability for a momentum recovery toward the immediate resistance of 78.20–78.65. The pound retreated from the weekly high 93.41 and weakened more than 0.98% against the rupee last week, settled at 92.24 as compared to the previous week’s close of 93.14 levels. The pair plunged to the weekly low of 92.13 on concerns over deteriorating EU-UK relations ahead of critical trade talks. Brussels' chief negotiator Michel Barnier rejected the UK's demands for a Canada-style trade deal that would free the UK from EU rules as he made a thinly-veiled warning to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson not to break his word. UK PM Boris Johnson's office accused the EU of reneging on an original offer in 2017. The pound continued weakening against the US dollar Thursday on worries over deteriorating EU-UK relations ahead of critical trade talks due next month. Technically, Since 22 December 2019, the GBPINR pair is consolidating above the support of 92.10 and struggling to break the immediate resistance of 94.50. Hence, in the near future, the pair may trade in the above range, unless the pair witnesses a break on either side break. Alternatively, any rise towards 92.80–93.00 will lead to selling pressure, as worries over deteriorating EU-UK relations ahead of critical trade talks due next month may hold the pound under pressure.  The Japanese yen witnessed 1.78% its biggest weekly plunge since 5 January 2020. The pair dropped towards 63.90, the lowest level since 25 July 2019, as continuous weak economic data from Japan following dismal growth data released over the weekend hardened expectations of further monetary policy easing by the Bank of Japan going ahead. Further, there are fears that Japan may enter into recession as the impact of the coronavirus may keep the country in de-growth for the second successive quarter. On the weekly chart, JPYINR pair trading on the verge of the crucial support of 64.20, and a break below is expected to lead to a drastic fall towards the next support levels of 63.20–62.50. Alternatively, a failure to break this level could create a probability for a momentum recovery toward the immediate resistance of 64.80–65.25 levels. Date Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Impact 24.02.20  3:15am NZD Retail Sales q/q 0.80% 1.60% Negative   2:30pm EUR German Ifo Business Climate 95 95.9 Negative 25.02.20 8:30pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 132.6 131.6 Positive 27.02.20 5:30am NZD ANZ Business Confidence - -13.2 -   6:00am AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q 0.50% -0.20% Positive 28.02.20 7:00pm CAD GDP m/m 0.10% 0.10% Neutral 29.02.20 6:30am CNY Manufacturing PMI - 50 - Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Tickerplant *DOS- Depends on statement. DOV- Depends on Votes. DOR- Depends on Report. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. )