For the third consecutive session, the domestic market was completely dominated by the bears on the back of weak global cues. The index Nifty lost another 140 points during the session to close well below 11400 mark. Till now, the index has lost more than 3% during the week. On the other hand, the Nifty Bank lost around 300 points to close below 29000 mark.
Yet again the market breadth remained in the favour of declining counters throughout the session which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, all the group indices closed in negative terrain. With regards to losers, NIFTY MEDIA (-4.53%) and NIFTY REALTY (-2.11%) stocks were the biggest laggards. From the F&O space, JETAIRWAYS (+17.1%), CGPOWER (+8.84%) and CEALTLTD (+3.28%) were the biggest performers.
MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY Chart
Selling pressure persisted in the markets for third session which dragged the index below the mentioned support of 11420. In fact the index is now hovering near the previous swing low of 11312. In the upcoming session, 11310 might act as an intermediate support for the index since even the intraday charts looks exhausted. In case of any pullback 11420 – 11450 might act as strong resistance for the index.
Till the time Nifty trades below 11500 traders should avoid any aggressive long bet. Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 08-MAY-2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELSCROSS CURRENCY UPDATEUSDINR 29MAY, 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UPDATERBI REFERENCE RATEUSDINR (May Future)Dollar/Rupee extended its recent fall and dropped towards 69.56 yesterday compared to Tuesday close of 69.8450. Since 25 April 2019, Crude oil plunged more than 5% from the recent high which supporting to the local currency, but upward pressure in the dollar after the slightly hawkish FOMC statement has support it. Also, hopes the US and China may soon reach a trade deal added somewhat pressure. Reports showed that the US and China may announce a trade deal by the end of the next week. Officials from both sides wrapped up the latest round of negotiations in Beijing on Wednesday as the two countries try to hammer out detailed trade agreement.Technical, USDINR retreated from 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its 26 Feb 2019- 19 March 2019 fall and after hitting a day low 69.56 settled at 69.61 levels. In near term 69.45 will act as a crucial support and break below 69.45 only would extend its recent losses towards 69.00 and below. Else, pair expects to consolidate around 69.45-69.95 before next any bearish or bullish move.Trend –Neutral
EURINR (May Future)EUR/Rupee witnessed 0.42% intraday fall yesterday and settled at 78.22 compared to previous trading close of 78.55. Howerver, it found somewehat support against dollar as data pointed to better than expected manufacturing conditions in the region. Technical, On the EOD chart, EURINR has broke short term consolidation support of 78.19 and formed a long bearish candle stick which creating probability for drastic fall in days to come. Today, a break below 78.15 would extend its losses towards 77.90-77.50. On the upside, resistance is seen at 78.65-79.10.Trend –Bearish
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today
Bank of England left interest rates on hold at 0.75% on Thursday and raised it growth forecasts, in what was its first monetary policy meeting since the deadline for Brexit was delayed for six months.
Eurozone's Markit manufacturing PMI increased to 47.9 in April compared to 47.5 to its previous release.
Eurozone's PMI manufacturing data helped to smooth concerns over the region's growth outlook
Germany's Markit manufacturing PMI increased to 44.4 from 44.1.
Retail sales fell 0.2% in Germany in March on a month-o-month basis, when the market was expecting a sharper drop of 0.4%.
US nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 3.6 percent annualized rate in the last quarter. That was the strongest pace since the third quarter of 2014.
US Initial claims for state unemployment benefits were flat at a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended April 27, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims surged 37,000 in the prior week, which was the largest rise since September 2017.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 09-MAY-2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELS
CROSS CURRENCY UDPATE
USDINR 29 MAY, 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UPDATE
RBI REFERENCE RATE (MAY 6, 2019)
TECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIR
USDINR (May Future)
Escalating trade tensions has witnessed slightly positive movements in Dollar/Rupee yesterday. US President Donald Trump escalated tensions through twitter that the talks toward a trade deal with China were proceeding "too slowly", and that he would raise tariffs on $200 billion of goods to 25% on Friday from 10%. However, Brent futures for July delivery drop nearly 2% at $69.44 a barrel which kept its somewhat gain during the day. Dollar/Rupee Future settled at 69.5850 with 0.18% intradaygain.
Technical, On the EOD chart, USDINR was unable to break its immediate resistance 69.75 which yet indicating that the near term bias could be neutral to negative unless it gives a closing above 69.75. A break above 69.75 only could result in upside move towards 70.20 and above.
Trend –Neutral
GBPINR (May Future)
Pound/Rupee witnessed 0.91% gain yestrday. Howerver, GBP retreated agaisnt the US dollar Monday as investors turned gloomy after senior UK Labour Party officials cast doubt on the prospect of any agreement from the cross-party Brexit talk. Focus is set to remain on Brexit as cross-party talks enter their final stages with investors keenly awaiting its outcome. Cross-party Brexit talks are set to resume this week as British ministers urged leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn to do a deal with the Government to break the Brexit deadlock.
Technical, On the EOD Chart, GBPINR trading on verge of triangle resistance 91.70 in break above will create probability for 2-3% sharp bullish move. Failure of the break only could witness consolidation towards 90.70-90.50 again.
Trend –Bullish above 91.70
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY / EARLIER TODAY
Eurozone investor sentiment index for the euro zone rose to 5.3 in May from -0.3 in April. Analysts had expected a reading of 1.4.
Germany Service PMI index rose to 55.7 from 55.4 in March, its highest reading since September, led by strong growth in the post and telecoms sector.
Eurozone Markit purchasing managers index for services sector in Eurozone stood at 52.8 in April, beating market expectation of a figure of 52.5. Also, composite PMI stood at 51.5 in April compared to a market expectation of 51.3.
Japan Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 50.2 in April from a final 49.2 in the previous month.
Nikkei India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 51 in April from 52 recorded in March.
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS SCHEDULE TODAY
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Source - investing.com, Reuters,forexlive & ticker news.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
)
Share Market Today - 9th May 2019
MARKET RECAP
Key Market Data Points
For the third consecutive session, the domestic market was completely dominated by the bears on the back of weak global cues. The index Nifty lost another 140 points during the session to close well below 11400 mark. Till now, the index has lost more than 3% during the week. On the other hand, the Nifty Bank lost around 300 points to close below 29000 mark.
Yet again the market breadth remained in the favour of declining counters throughout the session which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, all the group indices closed in negative terrain. With regards to losers, NIFTY MEDIA (-4.53%) and NIFTY REALTY (-2.11%) stocks were the biggest laggards. From the F&O space, JETAIRWAYS (+17.1%), CGPOWER (+8.84%) and CEALTLTD (+3.28%) were the biggest performers.
MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY Chart
Selling pressure persisted in the markets for third session which dragged the index below the mentioned support of 11420. In fact the index is now hovering near the previous swing low of 11312. In the upcoming session, 11310 might act as an intermediate support for the index since even the intraday charts looks exhausted. In case of any pullback 11420 – 11450 might act as strong resistance for the index.
Till the time Nifty trades below 11500 traders should avoid any aggressive long bet. Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions.
Disclaimer
Previous Story
Daily Currency Research Report – 3rd May 2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELSCROSS CURRENCY UPDATEUSDINR 29MAY, 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UPDATERBI REFERENCE RATEUSDINR (May Future)Dollar/Rupee extended its recent fall and dropped towards 69.56 yesterday compared to Tuesday close of 69.8450. Since 25 April 2019, Crude oil plunged more than 5% from the recent high which supporting to the local currency, but upward pressure in the dollar after the slightly hawkish FOMC statement has support it. Also, hopes the US and China may soon reach a trade deal added somewhat pressure. Reports showed that the US and China may announce a trade deal by the end of the next week. Officials from both sides wrapped up the latest round of negotiations in Beijing on Wednesday as the two countries try to hammer out detailed trade agreement.Technical, USDINR retreated from 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its 26 Feb 2019- 19 March 2019 fall and after hitting a day low 69.56 settled at 69.61 levels. In near term 69.45 will act as a crucial support and break below 69.45 only would extend its recent losses towards 69.00 and below. Else, pair expects to consolidate around 69.45-69.95 before next any bearish or bullish move.Trend –Neutral EURINR (May Future)EUR/Rupee witnessed 0.42% intraday fall yesterday and settled at 78.22 compared to previous trading close of 78.55. Howerver, it found somewehat support against dollar as data pointed to better than expected manufacturing conditions in the region. Technical, On the EOD chart, EURINR has broke short term consolidation support of 78.19 and formed a long bearish candle stick which creating probability for drastic fall in days to come. Today, a break below 78.15 would extend its losses towards 77.90-77.50. On the upside, resistance is seen at 78.65-79.10.Trend –Bearish Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today Bank of England left interest rates on hold at 0.75% on Thursday and raised it growth forecasts, in what was its first monetary policy meeting since the deadline for Brexit was delayed for six months. Eurozone's Markit manufacturing PMI increased to 47.9 in April compared to 47.5 to its previous release. Eurozone's PMI manufacturing data helped to smooth concerns over the region's growth outlook Germany's Markit manufacturing PMI increased to 44.4 from 44.1. Retail sales fell 0.2% in Germany in March on a month-o-month basis, when the market was expecting a sharper drop of 0.4%. US nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 3.6 percent annualized rate in the last quarter. That was the strongest pace since the third quarter of 2014. US Initial claims for state unemployment benefits were flat at a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended April 27, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims surged 37,000 in the prior week, which was the largest rise since September 2017. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)
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Daily Currency Research Report – 7th May 2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELS CROSS CURRENCY UDPATE USDINR 29 MAY, 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UPDATE RBI REFERENCE RATE (MAY 6, 2019) TECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIR USDINR (May Future) Escalating trade tensions has witnessed slightly positive movements in Dollar/Rupee yesterday. US President Donald Trump escalated tensions through twitter that the talks toward a trade deal with China were proceeding "too slowly", and that he would raise tariffs on $200 billion of goods to 25% on Friday from 10%. However, Brent futures for July delivery drop nearly 2% at $69.44 a barrel which kept its somewhat gain during the day. Dollar/Rupee Future settled at 69.5850 with 0.18% intradaygain. Technical, On the EOD chart, USDINR was unable to break its immediate resistance 69.75 which yet indicating that the near term bias could be neutral to negative unless it gives a closing above 69.75. A break above 69.75 only could result in upside move towards 70.20 and above. Trend –Neutral GBPINR (May Future) Pound/Rupee witnessed 0.91% gain yestrday. Howerver, GBP retreated agaisnt the US dollar Monday as investors turned gloomy after senior UK Labour Party officials cast doubt on the prospect of any agreement from the cross-party Brexit talk. Focus is set to remain on Brexit as cross-party talks enter their final stages with investors keenly awaiting its outcome. Cross-party Brexit talks are set to resume this week as British ministers urged leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn to do a deal with the Government to break the Brexit deadlock. Technical, On the EOD Chart, GBPINR trading on verge of triangle resistance 91.70 in break above will create probability for 2-3% sharp bullish move. Failure of the break only could witness consolidation towards 90.70-90.50 again. Trend –Bullish above 91.70 MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY / EARLIER TODAY Eurozone investor sentiment index for the euro zone rose to 5.3 in May from -0.3 in April. Analysts had expected a reading of 1.4. Germany Service PMI index rose to 55.7 from 55.4 in March, its highest reading since September, led by strong growth in the post and telecoms sector. Eurozone Markit purchasing managers index for services sector in Eurozone stood at 52.8 in April, beating market expectation of a figure of 52.5. Also, composite PMI stood at 51.5 in April compared to a market expectation of 51.3. Japan Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 50.2 in April from a final 49.2 in the previous month. Nikkei India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 51 in April from 52 recorded in March. MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS SCHEDULE TODAY Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Source - investing.com, Reuters,forexlive & ticker news. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. )