The week kicked off on an extreme pessimistic note for the domestic markets following the plunge in Asian indices. The Asian markets corrected sharply on fears that the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China were on the verge of failure. The index Nifty spot started the session with a downside gap of around 100 odd points and remained under pressure throughout the session. Eventually, it closed below 11600 mark. Meanwhile the Nifty Bank index too lost more than 300 points from previous close.
The market breadth remained in the favour of declining counters due to broad based selling. On the sectoral front, apart from NIFTY IT (+0.11%) all the other group indices close in negative terrain. With regards to losers, NIFTY MEDIA (-2.18%) and NIFTY METAL (-2.03%) stocks remained under pressure. From the F&O space, PCJEWELLER (+13.97%), TATACHEM (+8.06%) and RAYMOND (+4.92%) were the biggest performers.
MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY Chart
The given daily chart of Nifty spot indicates that the index is trading near the lower end of the range 11550 – 11800. Hence for further downside Nifty needs to clear 11550 mark decisively. In such scenario, Nifty might slide towards 11450 mark. On the upside, the intermediate resistance is placed at 11630. A move above the same might bring the bulls back in action.
Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 06-MAY-2019
MARKET OUTLOOK
The week went by was a truncated where we witnessed only three trading sessions. The domestic markets remained choppy in the absence of any further triggers. The index Nifty spot remained stuck in a range of 140 points to close extremely flat. On the other hand, even Nifty Bank index too remained flat to close with marginal loss of (-0.20%). During the process we witnessed heavy selling in individual stocks and that was reflected in volatility index VIX which surged more than 10%. On the sectoral front, NIFTY PHARMA (-2.55%) and NIFTY IT (-2.49%) counters were the biggest laggards whereas the NIFTY METAL (+1.14%) and NIFTY FIN SERV (+1.05%) stocks outperformed other group indices.
The given daily chart of Nifty spot indicates that the index is stuck in a broad range of 11550 – 11810. At this juncture, we are trading near the upper range and thus for further upside Nifty needs to clear 11800 mark. In such scenario, Nifty has potential to reach 12000 and above levels. On the downside, the intermediate support is placed at 11650 but 11550 level is the trend decider. Traders can use any dip towards 11650 to add fresh long in index futures with a stop of 11550 in spot. Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions.
Chart 2 : AJANTAPHARMA – Weekly (Prev. Close : 1052)The stock is stuck just below the placement of falling trend line on the weekly chart. Only a move above the same could trigger fresh upside. (Neutral)Source: IndiaNivesh Research
Chart 3 : FEDBANK – Weekly (Prev. Close : 97.65)The stock confirmed a bullish trend line breakout few weeks back and then retested the same. Currently it is on the verge of fresh breakout. (Bullish)Source: IndiaNivesh Research
Chart 4 : BIOCON - Weekly (Prev. Close : 551)The stock has confirmed trend line breakdown on the weekly chart. This might trigger fresh downside in the coming weeks. (Bearish)Source: IndiaNivesh Research
Chart 5: BATAINDIA – Daily (Prev. Close : 1442)The stock has reached its strong support zone formed by the placement of rising trend line on the daily chart. A breakdown could lead to some correction. (Neutral)Source: IndiaNivesh ResearchTrend lines are a visual representation of support and resistance in any timeframe and a simple tool available for trend analysis. The greater the number of touch points increases the importance, break on the either side may lead to major moves or trend reversals. The above charts will help you go through recent trend line breakouts / breakdowns.NIFTY 50 Stocks Above / Below 200 DSMA
NIFTY 50 - Overbought / OversoldStocks above 70 & below 30 Relative Strength IndexSource: IndiaNivesh ResearchRSI- The above shown chart represents the comparison of price action of benchmark index Nifty vis a vis the overbought/ oversold zone of Nifty 50 stocks considering the value of daily RSI.The Overbought zone occurs when the RSI value crosses 70 levels while the oversold zone occurs when it plunges below 30 levels.As per last three years data, we can analyse that, whenever the number of overbought stocks in Nifty 50 goes above 13 the market tend to make an intermediate top, while oversold position occurs when number of oversold stocks of Nifty 50 goes above 13 the market tend to form intermediate bottom.Currently the number of overbought / oversold stocks in NIFTY is negligible which indicates that the market has a potential to move in either direction.
WEEKLY DERIVATIVES ANALYSIS
Open Interest Shockers
Nifty Option SnapshotFor the coming week, max OI concentration is between 11800 CE and 11700 PE which defines a small range of 100 points. A move above or below the same might dictate further trend for the index.
Disclaimer)
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 08-MAY-2019
MARKET RECAP Key Market Data Points
The domestic markets maintained its downside momentum during yesterday’s session along with high volatility. Although the benchmark indices started the session on a positive note but selling pressure during the second half forced them to close with considerable loss. The index Nifty spot registered an intraday high of 11657 and closed way below the same i.e. it closed below 11500 mark. Meanwhile the Nifty Bank index too lost more than 400 points from previous close.
The positive market breadth turned in the favour of declining counters as the day progressed which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, apart from NIFTY IT (+0.15%) all the other group indices close in negative terrain. With regards to losers, NIFTY MEDIA (-2.74%) and NIFTY PSUBANK (-2.20%) stocks remained under pressure. From the F&O space, STAR (+7.38%), MARICO (+5.70%) and HEXAWARE (+1.94%) were the biggest performers.
MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY Chart:
Finally the range of 11550 – 11800 has been breached decisively. We expected the index to hold the support of 11550 but yesterday it not only sneaked below the support but closed with more weakness. Now going ahead, till the time Nifty trades below 11650 traders should avoid any aggressive long bet. On the downside, next supports are placed at 11450 – 11420 levels.
In case of any pullback, 11580 might act as strong resistance in the coming session. Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions.
Disclaimer)
Share Market Today - 7th May 2019
MARKET RECAP
Key Market Data Points
The week kicked off on an extreme pessimistic note for the domestic markets following the plunge in Asian indices. The Asian markets corrected sharply on fears that the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China were on the verge of failure. The index Nifty spot started the session with a downside gap of around 100 odd points and remained under pressure throughout the session. Eventually, it closed below 11600 mark. Meanwhile the Nifty Bank index too lost more than 300 points from previous close.
The market breadth remained in the favour of declining counters due to broad based selling. On the sectoral front, apart from NIFTY IT (+0.11%) all the other group indices close in negative terrain. With regards to losers, NIFTY MEDIA (-2.18%) and NIFTY METAL (-2.03%) stocks remained under pressure. From the F&O space, PCJEWELLER (+13.97%), TATACHEM (+8.06%) and RAYMOND (+4.92%) were the biggest performers.
MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY Chart
The given daily chart of Nifty spot indicates that the index is trading near the lower end of the range 11550 – 11800. Hence for further downside Nifty needs to clear 11550 mark decisively. In such scenario, Nifty might slide towards 11450 mark. On the upside, the intermediate resistance is placed at 11630. A move above the same might bring the bulls back in action.
Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions.
Disclaimer
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Weekly BSE & NSE Gainers & Losers - 29th Apr to 3rd May 2019
MARKET OUTLOOK The week went by was a truncated where we witnessed only three trading sessions. The domestic markets remained choppy in the absence of any further triggers. The index Nifty spot remained stuck in a range of 140 points to close extremely flat. On the other hand, even Nifty Bank index too remained flat to close with marginal loss of (-0.20%). During the process we witnessed heavy selling in individual stocks and that was reflected in volatility index VIX which surged more than 10%. On the sectoral front, NIFTY PHARMA (-2.55%) and NIFTY IT (-2.49%) counters were the biggest laggards whereas the NIFTY METAL (+1.14%) and NIFTY FIN SERV (+1.05%) stocks outperformed other group indices. The given daily chart of Nifty spot indicates that the index is stuck in a broad range of 11550 – 11810. At this juncture, we are trading near the upper range and thus for further upside Nifty needs to clear 11800 mark. In such scenario, Nifty has potential to reach 12000 and above levels. On the downside, the intermediate support is placed at 11650 but 11550 level is the trend decider. Traders can use any dip towards 11650 to add fresh long in index futures with a stop of 11550 in spot. Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions. Chart 2 : AJANTAPHARMA – Weekly (Prev. Close : 1052)The stock is stuck just below the placement of falling trend line on the weekly chart. Only a move above the same could trigger fresh upside. (Neutral)Source: IndiaNivesh Research Chart 3 : FEDBANK – Weekly (Prev. Close : 97.65)The stock confirmed a bullish trend line breakout few weeks back and then retested the same. Currently it is on the verge of fresh breakout. (Bullish)Source: IndiaNivesh Research Chart 4 : BIOCON - Weekly (Prev. Close : 551)The stock has confirmed trend line breakdown on the weekly chart. This might trigger fresh downside in the coming weeks. (Bearish)Source: IndiaNivesh Research Chart 5: BATAINDIA – Daily (Prev. Close : 1442)The stock has reached its strong support zone formed by the placement of rising trend line on the daily chart. A breakdown could lead to some correction. (Neutral)Source: IndiaNivesh ResearchTrend lines are a visual representation of support and resistance in any timeframe and a simple tool available for trend analysis. The greater the number of touch points increases the importance, break on the either side may lead to major moves or trend reversals. The above charts will help you go through recent trend line breakouts / breakdowns.NIFTY 50 Stocks Above / Below 200 DSMA NIFTY 50 - Overbought / OversoldStocks above 70 & below 30 Relative Strength IndexSource: IndiaNivesh ResearchRSI- The above shown chart represents the comparison of price action of benchmark index Nifty vis a vis the overbought/ oversold zone of Nifty 50 stocks considering the value of daily RSI.The Overbought zone occurs when the RSI value crosses 70 levels while the oversold zone occurs when it plunges below 30 levels.As per last three years data, we can analyse that, whenever the number of overbought stocks in Nifty 50 goes above 13 the market tend to make an intermediate top, while oversold position occurs when number of oversold stocks of Nifty 50 goes above 13 the market tend to form intermediate bottom.Currently the number of overbought / oversold stocks in NIFTY is negligible which indicates that the market has a potential to move in either direction. WEEKLY DERIVATIVES ANALYSIS Open Interest Shockers Nifty Option SnapshotFor the coming week, max OI concentration is between 11800 CE and 11700 PE which defines a small range of 100 points. A move above or below the same might dictate further trend for the index. Disclaimer)
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Share Market Today - 8th May 2019
MARKET RECAP Key Market Data Points The domestic markets maintained its downside momentum during yesterday’s session along with high volatility. Although the benchmark indices started the session on a positive note but selling pressure during the second half forced them to close with considerable loss. The index Nifty spot registered an intraday high of 11657 and closed way below the same i.e. it closed below 11500 mark. Meanwhile the Nifty Bank index too lost more than 400 points from previous close. The positive market breadth turned in the favour of declining counters as the day progressed which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, apart from NIFTY IT (+0.15%) all the other group indices close in negative terrain. With regards to losers, NIFTY MEDIA (-2.74%) and NIFTY PSUBANK (-2.20%) stocks remained under pressure. From the F&O space, STAR (+7.38%), MARICO (+5.70%) and HEXAWARE (+1.94%) were the biggest performers. MARKET OUTLOOK NIFTY Chart: Finally the range of 11550 – 11800 has been breached decisively. We expected the index to hold the support of 11550 but yesterday it not only sneaked below the support but closed with more weakness. Now going ahead, till the time Nifty trades below 11650 traders should avoid any aggressive long bet. On the downside, next supports are placed at 11450 – 11420 levels. In case of any pullback, 11580 might act as strong resistance in the coming session. Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions. Disclaimer)