The choppiness persisted on the D – street for fourth consecutive trading session yesterday. The domestic indices yet again remained stuck in a range throughout the session to close flat. Nifty spot sneaked just below 11700 mark during the first half but strong buying in the later part of the session helped the index to recover majority of its losses to rise towards 11800 zone. Eventually, the index closed in red with marginal loss. Meanwhile the Nifty bank still remained under pressure to close below 30K mark.
As the day progressed, market breadth turned in the favour of declining counters which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, apart from NIFTY FIN SRV (+0.23%) and NIFTY REALTY (+0.12%) all the other group indices close in negative terrain. With regards to losers, NIFTY IT (-1.81%) and NIFTY MEDIA (-1.60%) stocks remained under pressure. From the F&O space, JETAIRWAYS (-22.22%), RPOWER (-11.38%) and ESCORTS (-8.37%) were the biggest laggards.
MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY Hourly CHART :
Although volatile but the index Nifty oscillated in a broader range throughout the session. Despite such volatility, there are no major changes in price structure of Nifty spot. Thus we maintain our stance that if the support of 11550 is held then we might witness an extended relief rally going ahead. A convincing close above 11750 might pull the index towards all-time high or may be 12000 also. Although we are bullish for short term but we continue to maintain our medium term view that this rally should be used to book profits in long positions.
In case of any downside, 11650 – 11550 levels are likely to attract buying interest in coming sessions. Due to election activities we expect some volatility and thus continue to advice traders to avoid overleveraged positions and maintain strict stop loss.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 02-MAY-2019
USDINR (May Future)Dollar/Rupee retreated more than 0.65% on Tuesday on weak dollar and sliding Brent prices but dollar demand due to selling in local stocks by FIIs has restricted somewhat loss during the day. Further, firm trend in euro after the GDP data from Eurozone weakened the US currency across the board. Brent eased on expectations that rising output from the US and producer club OPEC would offset most of the shortfall expected from US sanctions on Iran also added somewhat pressure. Forward premia for dollar across maturities traded lower Tuesday as exporters hedged their future receivables on fear of further fall in the spot pair.Technical, USDINR retreated from 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its 26 Feb 2019- 19 March 2019 fall and after hitting a day low 69.8350 settled at 69.86 levels. In near term 69.70 will act as a crucial support and break below 69.70 only would extend its recent losses towards 69.50 and below. Else, pair expect to consolidate around 69.75-70.00 before next any bearish or bullish move.Trend –Neutral
GBPINR (May Future)Pound got somewhat suport on Tuesday following reports that the British Prime Minister Theresa May's government made substantive progress in the Brexit talks with the opposition Labour Party. In the report came on Monday, Labour Party sources have been quoted as saying that the government appeared to have shifted its position on the party's key demands around a closer customs union with the European Union after Brexit. Pair settled at 91.00 compared to Friday close of 90.9625. Technical, GBPINR bounce slightly towards day high 91.15 but it struggled to break its previous day high. On the EOD chart, Pair trading on verge of Descending Triangle which is indicating for sharp move is awaiting in days to come. On the upside, massive resistance is seen at 91.50 and break out would open the door for 92.00-93.50; else any rise towards 91.25-91.30 could crate probability for downside move towards 90.00-89.50 again.Trend –Volatile
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today
China's purchasing management index (PMI) dipped to 50.1 in April from 50.5 in the previous month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Eurozone economy expanded 0.4% in the first quarter, up from 0.2% growth in the previous quarter, Eurostat said on Tuesday. The consensus was for 0.3% expansion.
Eurozone jobless rate in the Eurozone fell to 7.7% in March, its lowest level since September 2008, from the February reading of 7.8%.
US pending home sales index increased to a reading of 105.8, up 3.8 percent from the prior month and the highest since July. February's index was unrevised at 101.9.
U.S. companies added 275,000 workers in April, the biggest monthly gain since last July and exceeding analysts' forecast of a 180,000 increase.
Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 2.50%, and vowed to continued with its patient approach to monetary policy, raising expectation that the central bank is unlikely to give into calls to cut rates.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negativeindicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Dependson Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 03-MAY-2019
IMPORTANT HIGHLIGHTS
Germany's IFO said on Wednesday that the business climate index fell from a revised 99.7 points in March to 99.2 points in April, when the market was expecting a rise to 99.9.
US initial jobless claims registered 230,000, up 37,000 from the previous week's revised level, the Department of Labour reported on Thursday.
Japan unemployment rate rose to 2.5%, against economists' median forecast for 2.4%, figures from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed.
European Commission said a flash estimate showed euro zone consumer morale decreased to -7.9 this month from -7.2 in March.
US gross domestic product registered a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2% growth in the first three months of 2019, above expectations for a reading of 2.0% and an increase from 2.2% in the final three months of last year.
Japan Industrial output in January-March tumbled 2.6% the biggest decline since April-June 2014.
Bank of Japan keeps deposit rate at -0.1%, keeps 10-yr yield target around 0%, maintains promise to buy JGBs at 80 tln yen annual pace.
Japan CPI, which includes oil products but excludes volatile fresh food costs rose to 0.8% In February, annual core consumer inflation hit 0.7 percent.
US new home sales surged 4.5% in March compared to 2.5% fall expected by market participants.
WEEKLY CHANGE & TECHNICAL LEVELSNSE/BSE/MSEI May Futures Currency agsint U.S. DollarForeign Exchange reserves, in Billion $-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dollar/rupee witnessed 0.77% it biggest weekly gain since 6 January 2019 and settled at 70.33 compared to 69.49 levels. A speculative jumped it Brent which surged above $75 a barrel level, supported by tighter US sanctions against Iran and ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts, dampening the impact of a sharp rise in crude oil inventories in the US has lifted strong buying activities during the week. However, it gave up somewhat gain as local debt prices ended higher after the weekly auction by the Reserve Bank of India was fully subscribed and Brent crude oil prices tumbled on the back of comments from Trump that he talked to OPEC and told them to get the price of oil down.Technical, on the weekly chart, USDINR Future trading on verge of its massive resistance 70.75 and break above would open the door for next resistance 71.00-71.25. Failure of the break only could create probability for correction towards 69.80-69.50 again.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dollar index settled with 0.69% weekly gain at 98.05 compared to previous week close of 97.38 levels. It jumped towards two year high 98.33 against the euro and continued firm versus other major counterparts too after central banks around the world turn dovish amid expectations of an upbeat GDP data from the US. However, dollar index gave up somewhat gain on bet that Federal Reserve will cut rates after better-than-expected U.S. first-quarter growth. Interest rates moved lower Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.504% and is down 6.8% this year.Technical, An ascending triangle breakout was noted on the weekly chart which creating probability for 1.50-2% bullish rally from the current level and the upside level expect towards 98.80—99.50 levels. On the downside, crucial support is 97.40-96.85.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Euro/Rupee remained mixed node in last week and settled at 78.57 with 0.24% loss. Pair traded down over the Euro zone’s economic growth concerns after the dismal German IFO data amid strong greenback. Earlier, Euro fell to nearly two-year low after disappointing German business morale data amid Brexit woes. However, bets that Federal Reserve will cut rates after better-thanexpected U.S. first-quarter growth supported it against the dollar on Friday.Technically, weekly price action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick which is indication for indecision in near term. This week, 79.25 will act as a massive resistance and break above could result in upside move towards 79.80 and above. Failure of the break could witness correction towards 78.00 again.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pound/Rupee remained indecisive last week and settled at 90.96 compared to 90.99 almost flat. Pair traded lower against the US dollar as hopes of a breakthrough in Brexit talks in the cross-party meet faded and UK Prime Minister Theresa May faced growing pressure to quit. Reports showed that PM May want to hold the vote this week so that her government can press ahead with Brexit after weeks of impasse.Technically, cluster of indecisive candle stick on the weekly chart is creating probability for volatile trend in GBPINR as Brexit uncertainty is expect to hold sideways sentiment in the currency. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 90.10 and break below would extend the recent losses and it may test 89.70-89.50, else pair expect to consolidate around 90.50-91.50 levels.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Tickerplant*DOS- Depends on statement. DOV- Depends on Votes. DOR- Depends on Report.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)
Share Market Today - 3rd May 2019
MARKET RECAP
Key Market Data Points
The choppiness persisted on the D – street for fourth consecutive trading session yesterday. The domestic indices yet again remained stuck in a range throughout the session to close flat. Nifty spot sneaked just below 11700 mark during the first half but strong buying in the later part of the session helped the index to recover majority of its losses to rise towards 11800 zone. Eventually, the index closed in red with marginal loss. Meanwhile the Nifty bank still remained under pressure to close below 30K mark.
As the day progressed, market breadth turned in the favour of declining counters which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, apart from NIFTY FIN SRV (+0.23%) and NIFTY REALTY (+0.12%) all the other group indices close in negative terrain. With regards to losers, NIFTY IT (-1.81%) and NIFTY MEDIA (-1.60%) stocks remained under pressure. From the F&O space, JETAIRWAYS (-22.22%), RPOWER (-11.38%) and ESCORTS (-8.37%) were the biggest laggards.
MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY Hourly CHART :
Although volatile but the index Nifty oscillated in a broader range throughout the session. Despite such volatility, there are no major changes in price structure of Nifty spot. Thus we maintain our stance that if the support of 11550 is held then we might witness an extended relief rally going ahead. A convincing close above 11750 might pull the index towards all-time high or may be 12000 also. Although we are bullish for short term but we continue to maintain our medium term view that this rally should be used to book profits in long positions.
In case of any downside, 11650 – 11550 levels are likely to attract buying interest in coming sessions. Due to election activities we expect some volatility and thus continue to advice traders to avoid overleveraged positions and maintain strict stop loss.
Disclaimer
Previous Story
Daily Currency Research Report – 2nd May 2019
USDINR (May Future)Dollar/Rupee retreated more than 0.65% on Tuesday on weak dollar and sliding Brent prices but dollar demand due to selling in local stocks by FIIs has restricted somewhat loss during the day. Further, firm trend in euro after the GDP data from Eurozone weakened the US currency across the board. Brent eased on expectations that rising output from the US and producer club OPEC would offset most of the shortfall expected from US sanctions on Iran also added somewhat pressure. Forward premia for dollar across maturities traded lower Tuesday as exporters hedged their future receivables on fear of further fall in the spot pair.Technical, USDINR retreated from 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its 26 Feb 2019- 19 March 2019 fall and after hitting a day low 69.8350 settled at 69.86 levels. In near term 69.70 will act as a crucial support and break below 69.70 only would extend its recent losses towards 69.50 and below. Else, pair expect to consolidate around 69.75-70.00 before next any bearish or bullish move.Trend –Neutral GBPINR (May Future)Pound got somewhat suport on Tuesday following reports that the British Prime Minister Theresa May's government made substantive progress in the Brexit talks with the opposition Labour Party. In the report came on Monday, Labour Party sources have been quoted as saying that the government appeared to have shifted its position on the party's key demands around a closer customs union with the European Union after Brexit. Pair settled at 91.00 compared to Friday close of 90.9625. Technical, GBPINR bounce slightly towards day high 91.15 but it struggled to break its previous day high. On the EOD chart, Pair trading on verge of Descending Triangle which is indicating for sharp move is awaiting in days to come. On the upside, massive resistance is seen at 91.50 and break out would open the door for 92.00-93.50; else any rise towards 91.25-91.30 could crate probability for downside move towards 90.00-89.50 again.Trend –Volatile Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today China's purchasing management index (PMI) dipped to 50.1 in April from 50.5 in the previous month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Eurozone economy expanded 0.4% in the first quarter, up from 0.2% growth in the previous quarter, Eurostat said on Tuesday. The consensus was for 0.3% expansion. Eurozone jobless rate in the Eurozone fell to 7.7% in March, its lowest level since September 2008, from the February reading of 7.8%. US pending home sales index increased to a reading of 105.8, up 3.8 percent from the prior month and the highest since July. February's index was unrevised at 101.9. U.S. companies added 275,000 workers in April, the biggest monthly gain since last July and exceeding analysts' forecast of a 180,000 increase. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 2.50%, and vowed to continued with its patient approach to monetary policy, raising expectation that the central bank is unlikely to give into calls to cut rates. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negativeindicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Dependson Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)
Next Story
Currency Weekly Research Report – 26th April to 3rd May 2019
IMPORTANT HIGHLIGHTS Germany's IFO said on Wednesday that the business climate index fell from a revised 99.7 points in March to 99.2 points in April, when the market was expecting a rise to 99.9. US initial jobless claims registered 230,000, up 37,000 from the previous week's revised level, the Department of Labour reported on Thursday. Japan unemployment rate rose to 2.5%, against economists' median forecast for 2.4%, figures from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed. European Commission said a flash estimate showed euro zone consumer morale decreased to -7.9 this month from -7.2 in March. US gross domestic product registered a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2% growth in the first three months of 2019, above expectations for a reading of 2.0% and an increase from 2.2% in the final three months of last year. Japan Industrial output in January-March tumbled 2.6% the biggest decline since April-June 2014. Bank of Japan keeps deposit rate at -0.1%, keeps 10-yr yield target around 0%, maintains promise to buy JGBs at 80 tln yen annual pace. Japan CPI, which includes oil products but excludes volatile fresh food costs rose to 0.8% In February, annual core consumer inflation hit 0.7 percent. US new home sales surged 4.5% in March compared to 2.5% fall expected by market participants. WEEKLY CHANGE & TECHNICAL LEVELSNSE/BSE/MSEI May Futures Currency agsint U.S. DollarForeign Exchange reserves, in Billion $----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dollar/rupee witnessed 0.77% it biggest weekly gain since 6 January 2019 and settled at 70.33 compared to 69.49 levels. A speculative jumped it Brent which surged above $75 a barrel level, supported by tighter US sanctions against Iran and ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts, dampening the impact of a sharp rise in crude oil inventories in the US has lifted strong buying activities during the week. However, it gave up somewhat gain as local debt prices ended higher after the weekly auction by the Reserve Bank of India was fully subscribed and Brent crude oil prices tumbled on the back of comments from Trump that he talked to OPEC and told them to get the price of oil down.Technical, on the weekly chart, USDINR Future trading on verge of its massive resistance 70.75 and break above would open the door for next resistance 71.00-71.25. Failure of the break only could create probability for correction towards 69.80-69.50 again. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dollar index settled with 0.69% weekly gain at 98.05 compared to previous week close of 97.38 levels. It jumped towards two year high 98.33 against the euro and continued firm versus other major counterparts too after central banks around the world turn dovish amid expectations of an upbeat GDP data from the US. However, dollar index gave up somewhat gain on bet that Federal Reserve will cut rates after better-than-expected U.S. first-quarter growth. Interest rates moved lower Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.504% and is down 6.8% this year.Technical, An ascending triangle breakout was noted on the weekly chart which creating probability for 1.50-2% bullish rally from the current level and the upside level expect towards 98.80—99.50 levels. On the downside, crucial support is 97.40-96.85. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Euro/Rupee remained mixed node in last week and settled at 78.57 with 0.24% loss. Pair traded down over the Euro zone’s economic growth concerns after the dismal German IFO data amid strong greenback. Earlier, Euro fell to nearly two-year low after disappointing German business morale data amid Brexit woes. However, bets that Federal Reserve will cut rates after better-thanexpected U.S. first-quarter growth supported it against the dollar on Friday.Technically, weekly price action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick which is indication for indecision in near term. This week, 79.25 will act as a massive resistance and break above could result in upside move towards 79.80 and above. Failure of the break could witness correction towards 78.00 again. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pound/Rupee remained indecisive last week and settled at 90.96 compared to 90.99 almost flat. Pair traded lower against the US dollar as hopes of a breakthrough in Brexit talks in the cross-party meet faded and UK Prime Minister Theresa May faced growing pressure to quit. Reports showed that PM May want to hold the vote this week so that her government can press ahead with Brexit after weeks of impasse.Technically, cluster of indecisive candle stick on the weekly chart is creating probability for volatile trend in GBPINR as Brexit uncertainty is expect to hold sideways sentiment in the currency. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 90.10 and break below would extend the recent losses and it may test 89.70-89.50, else pair expect to consolidate around 90.50-91.50 levels. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Tickerplant*DOS- Depends on statement. DOV- Depends on Votes. DOR- Depends on Report. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)