The truncated week started on a pessimistic note during yesterday’s session for the domestic markets and it was followed by another sharp selloff. The index Nifty spot plunged another 100 points during the first half to retest 11650 mark. However, strong buying in the later part of the session helped the index to recover majority of its losses to close flat. Meanwhile the Nifty bank still remained under pressure to close below 30K mark due to selloff in YESBANK (-30%).
As the day progressed, market breadth turned in the favour of declining counters which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, NIFTY MEDIA (+1.41%) and NIFTY METAL (+1.39%) stocks supported the markets really well. On the other hand, NIFTY PSU BANK (-3.34%) and NIFTY REALTY (-2.31%) stocks remained under pressure. From the F&O space, JSWSTEEL (+4.89%), ZEEL (+3.70%) and HCLTECH (+3.43%) were the biggest gainers.
MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY Hourly CHART :
Although volatile but the index Nifty oscillated in a broader range and thus we maintain our stance that if the support of 11550 is held then we might witness an extended relief rally going ahead. A sustainable move above 11750 might pull the index towards all-time high or may be 12000 also. Although we are bullish for short term but we continue to maintain our medium term view that this rally should be used to book profits in long positions.
In case of any downside, 11620 – 11550 levels are likely to attract buying interest in coming sessions. Due to election activities we expect some volatility and thus continue to advice traders to avoid overleveraged positions and maintain strict stop loss.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 30-APR-2019
BULLION Gold traded down awaiting Fed; Palladium Crushed. Trend volatile Review Yesterday, both the precious metals were trades slightly negative. Gold settled at $1279.70 per troy ounce up down 0.47% while silver settled at $14.901 per troy ounce down by 1%. U.S. economy is messing things up for gold longs, even as the Fed might come through for them. Palladium, meanwhile, is falling out of bed. After showing promise in the previous session that a return to $1,300-an-ounce pricing may be possible, both gold futures and bullion fell by about half a percent each on Monday as data showing 9-1/2 year highs in April's U.S. consumer spending boosted risk in equity markets and lowered appetite for safe havens like gold. Gold for June delivery, traded on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, settled the official session down $7.30, or 0.6%, at $1,281.50 per ounce. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Today, Gold is having support at 31750--31580 while resistance at 31880-32050, silver is having support at 37150-36850 and resistance at 37750-37980. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
ENERGY Crude Oil plunged more than 4% on expectations of rising output, China stutter. Review Yesterday, Crude Oil prices dipped more than 4% on Friday at MCX and settled at 4409 compared to previous day close of 4637. Brent crude oil drop on expectations rising output from the United States and producer club OPEC would offset most of the shortfall expected from U.S. sanctions on Iran, but analysts said markets remained tight. A stutter in China's factory and servicing industries in April also weighed on crude prices, as it suggested Asia's biggest economy is still struggling to regain traction. Brent crude futures were at $71.75 per barrel, down 29 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were ats$63.35 per barrel, down 15 cents, or 0.2 percent from their previous settlement. Oil prices surged by around 40 percent between January and April, lifted by supply cuts led by the Middle East-dominated producer club of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as by U.S. sanctions on producers Iran and Venezuela. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Crude oil is having support at 4570-4500 while resistance at 4650-4688, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
AGRI COMMODITYSoybean May futures decline on fresh selling. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, Soybean May futures suffered losses in Friday afternoon session on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) on fresh selling. On Thursday, the contract closed flat. Improved arrivals in physical market amid weak support from millers put pressure on prices. Forecast of near normal 2019 monsoon rains and higher 2018-19 output also had a sobering impact on prices. As per the second advance estimates for 2018-19 crops released by Ministry of Agriculture, soybean production is estimated higher by 20% at 136.89 lakh ton as compared to 113.90 lakh ton a year ago. On the global front, CBOT soybean closed higher marginally on low level buying as prices had fallen to 5-month low. However, there is still fundamental pressure from large South American soybean harvests and uncertainty about demand from China.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Soybean is having support around 3655-3600 while resistance at 3735-3780, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 738-735.50 while resistance at 742.50-745.50 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news.
Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 02-MAY-2019
BULLION Gold and silver prices slides as US Fed keeps key interest rates unchanged. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, both the precious metals were trades weak in international markets. Gold settled at $1283.55 per troy ounce down by 0.20% while silver settled at $14.74 per troy ounce down by 1.60%. Domestic markets were also settled weak. Gold settled at Rs.31740 per 10 gram with the loss of 0.05% and MCX Silver settled at 37139 per 1 kilogram with the loss of 1.52%. Gold prices are selling off and have hit daily lows in afternoon dealings Wednesday. The yellow metal is feeling pressure as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is holding his post-FOMC press conference and is sounding positive on the U.S. economic outlook. On the inflation outlook, Powell somewhat alleviated trader concerns regarding low inflation, for which some FOMC members did express concern in the FOMC statement, when he said the present low inflation could be due to "transitory" factors. That statement may have pushed the U.S. dollar index higher and puts pressure on gold. Gold is having support at $1276-1272 and resistance at $1288-1292. Silver is having support at $14.60-14.44 while resistance at $14.88-15.05. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Today, Gold is having support at 31675-31611 while resistance at 31784-31829, silver is having support at 36925-36712 and resistance at 37472-37806. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
ENERGY Crude oil prices dip as U.S. weekly inventory rises. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, Crude oil prices traded slightly weak in international market WTI Crude settled at $63.60 while Brent settled at $72.08 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled weak at 4422 per barrel with the loss of 1.01%. U.S. crude oil inventories rises nine times last week against expectations, adding a huge increase to a recent streak of builds, as a drop in refining activity, rise in imports and record high domestic production all came together to overwhelm traders. U.S. EIA said, Crude oil stock rose by 9.9 million barrels in the week to April 26, versus forecasts for a build of 1.5 million. There were surprises on the gasoline and distillates side of the data as well. The EIA said gasoline inventories rose by 0.9 million barrels, compared to expectations for a draw of 1 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles dropped by 1.3 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a decline of 193,000 barrels. U.S. crude production, meanwhile, rose by 100,000 barrels, to a record high of 12.3 million barrels per day. Higher production in U.S. and sanctions on Iran will keep crude oil prices volatile. Crude oil is having support at $63.10-62.70 and resistance at $64-64.40. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Crude oil is having support at 4383-4343 while resistance at 4460-4497, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
BASE METALBase metals crashed as dollar index gain after Fed keeps rate unchanged. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, base metal prices settled weak in international market. 3M LME copper settled at $6233 per metric ton down by 2.80% from previous close. Base metal prices gain in early trade on Wednesday in international markets as trade talk begins between US-China and hope of positive outcomes. But prices crashed in evening session as US Federal reserve keeps key interest rates unchanged and Dollar index gain. Dovish Fed statement and lower inflation forecast supports dollar index and which puts pressure on global commodity prices specially base metals. We expect base metal prices remain volatile and any positive outcome of US-China trade talk will support prices at lower levels. Today, Copper is having support around 432-428 while resistance at 439-441. Nickel will trade in a range of 834-864, Zinc will trade in a range of 216-223, and Lead will trade in a range of 127-133 while Aluminium trade in a range of 144-150.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Copper is having support at 432 and 428 while resistance at 439 and 441, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
AGRI COMMODITYStrong rupee and weak global cues puts pressure on agri commodities. Trend volatile. ReviewTuesday, Soybean settled weak in domestic markets at 3685 per quintal with the loss of 0.41%. CBOT were settled at 842. Strength in rupee and weakness in global commodity markets put pressure on domestic agriculture commodities market. Dollar index also gain and which also puts pressure on global commodities. We expect agriculture commodities remain volatile and spice complex will get support at lower levels. Most of the commodities at NCDEX settled weak, Chana settled with the loss of 0.39%, Castor seed settled weak with the loss of 2.37%. RM Seed closed negative with the loss of 0.61%. Guar Seed settled positive with the gain of 0.54% while Guar Gum settled with the gain of 0.57%. Spices pack settled weak Coriander, Jeera and Turmeric settled with loss due to profit booking. Cotton seed oilcake closed positive with the gain of 1.22%. Refined Soyoil closed positive with the gain of 0.11%. We expect Refined Soyoil to trade in a range of 734-748.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Soybean is having support around 3660-3630 while resistance at 3710-3740, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 737-734 while resistance at 746-748 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news.
Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
Share Market Today - 2nd May 2019
MARKET RECAP
Key Market Data Points
The truncated week started on a pessimistic note during yesterday’s session for the domestic markets and it was followed by another sharp selloff. The index Nifty spot plunged another 100 points during the first half to retest 11650 mark. However, strong buying in the later part of the session helped the index to recover majority of its losses to close flat. Meanwhile the Nifty bank still remained under pressure to close below 30K mark due to selloff in YESBANK (-30%).
As the day progressed, market breadth turned in the favour of declining counters which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, NIFTY MEDIA (+1.41%) and NIFTY METAL (+1.39%) stocks supported the markets really well. On the other hand, NIFTY PSU BANK (-3.34%) and NIFTY REALTY (-2.31%) stocks remained under pressure. From the F&O space, JSWSTEEL (+4.89%), ZEEL (+3.70%) and HCLTECH (+3.43%) were the biggest gainers.
MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY Hourly CHART :
Although volatile but the index Nifty oscillated in a broader range and thus we maintain our stance that if the support of 11550 is held then we might witness an extended relief rally going ahead. A sustainable move above 11750 might pull the index towards all-time high or may be 12000 also. Although we are bullish for short term but we continue to maintain our medium term view that this rally should be used to book profits in long positions.
In case of any downside, 11620 – 11550 levels are likely to attract buying interest in coming sessions. Due to election activities we expect some volatility and thus continue to advice traders to avoid overleveraged positions and maintain strict stop loss.
Disclaimer
Previous Story
Commodity Research Report – 30th April 2019
BULLION Gold traded down awaiting Fed; Palladium Crushed. Trend volatile Review Yesterday, both the precious metals were trades slightly negative. Gold settled at $1279.70 per troy ounce up down 0.47% while silver settled at $14.901 per troy ounce down by 1%. U.S. economy is messing things up for gold longs, even as the Fed might come through for them. Palladium, meanwhile, is falling out of bed. After showing promise in the previous session that a return to $1,300-an-ounce pricing may be possible, both gold futures and bullion fell by about half a percent each on Monday as data showing 9-1/2 year highs in April's U.S. consumer spending boosted risk in equity markets and lowered appetite for safe havens like gold. Gold for June delivery, traded on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, settled the official session down $7.30, or 0.6%, at $1,281.50 per ounce. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Today, Gold is having support at 31750--31580 while resistance at 31880-32050, silver is having support at 37150-36850 and resistance at 37750-37980. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. ENERGY Crude Oil plunged more than 4% on expectations of rising output, China stutter. Review Yesterday, Crude Oil prices dipped more than 4% on Friday at MCX and settled at 4409 compared to previous day close of 4637. Brent crude oil drop on expectations rising output from the United States and producer club OPEC would offset most of the shortfall expected from U.S. sanctions on Iran, but analysts said markets remained tight. A stutter in China's factory and servicing industries in April also weighed on crude prices, as it suggested Asia's biggest economy is still struggling to regain traction. Brent crude futures were at $71.75 per barrel, down 29 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were ats$63.35 per barrel, down 15 cents, or 0.2 percent from their previous settlement. Oil prices surged by around 40 percent between January and April, lifted by supply cuts led by the Middle East-dominated producer club of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as by U.S. sanctions on producers Iran and Venezuela. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Crude oil is having support at 4570-4500 while resistance at 4650-4688, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. AGRI COMMODITYSoybean May futures decline on fresh selling. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, Soybean May futures suffered losses in Friday afternoon session on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) on fresh selling. On Thursday, the contract closed flat. Improved arrivals in physical market amid weak support from millers put pressure on prices. Forecast of near normal 2019 monsoon rains and higher 2018-19 output also had a sobering impact on prices. As per the second advance estimates for 2018-19 crops released by Ministry of Agriculture, soybean production is estimated higher by 20% at 136.89 lakh ton as compared to 113.90 lakh ton a year ago. On the global front, CBOT soybean closed higher marginally on low level buying as prices had fallen to 5-month low. However, there is still fundamental pressure from large South American soybean harvests and uncertainty about demand from China.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Soybean is having support around 3655-3600 while resistance at 3735-3780, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 738-735.50 while resistance at 742.50-745.50 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news. Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
Next Story
Daily Commodity Research Report – 2nd May 2019
BULLION Gold and silver prices slides as US Fed keeps key interest rates unchanged. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, both the precious metals were trades weak in international markets. Gold settled at $1283.55 per troy ounce down by 0.20% while silver settled at $14.74 per troy ounce down by 1.60%. Domestic markets were also settled weak. Gold settled at Rs.31740 per 10 gram with the loss of 0.05% and MCX Silver settled at 37139 per 1 kilogram with the loss of 1.52%. Gold prices are selling off and have hit daily lows in afternoon dealings Wednesday. The yellow metal is feeling pressure as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is holding his post-FOMC press conference and is sounding positive on the U.S. economic outlook. On the inflation outlook, Powell somewhat alleviated trader concerns regarding low inflation, for which some FOMC members did express concern in the FOMC statement, when he said the present low inflation could be due to "transitory" factors. That statement may have pushed the U.S. dollar index higher and puts pressure on gold. Gold is having support at $1276-1272 and resistance at $1288-1292. Silver is having support at $14.60-14.44 while resistance at $14.88-15.05. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Today, Gold is having support at 31675-31611 while resistance at 31784-31829, silver is having support at 36925-36712 and resistance at 37472-37806. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. ENERGY Crude oil prices dip as U.S. weekly inventory rises. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, Crude oil prices traded slightly weak in international market WTI Crude settled at $63.60 while Brent settled at $72.08 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled weak at 4422 per barrel with the loss of 1.01%. U.S. crude oil inventories rises nine times last week against expectations, adding a huge increase to a recent streak of builds, as a drop in refining activity, rise in imports and record high domestic production all came together to overwhelm traders. U.S. EIA said, Crude oil stock rose by 9.9 million barrels in the week to April 26, versus forecasts for a build of 1.5 million. There were surprises on the gasoline and distillates side of the data as well. The EIA said gasoline inventories rose by 0.9 million barrels, compared to expectations for a draw of 1 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles dropped by 1.3 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a decline of 193,000 barrels. U.S. crude production, meanwhile, rose by 100,000 barrels, to a record high of 12.3 million barrels per day. Higher production in U.S. and sanctions on Iran will keep crude oil prices volatile. Crude oil is having support at $63.10-62.70 and resistance at $64-64.40. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Crude oil is having support at 4383-4343 while resistance at 4460-4497, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. BASE METALBase metals crashed as dollar index gain after Fed keeps rate unchanged. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, base metal prices settled weak in international market. 3M LME copper settled at $6233 per metric ton down by 2.80% from previous close. Base metal prices gain in early trade on Wednesday in international markets as trade talk begins between US-China and hope of positive outcomes. But prices crashed in evening session as US Federal reserve keeps key interest rates unchanged and Dollar index gain. Dovish Fed statement and lower inflation forecast supports dollar index and which puts pressure on global commodity prices specially base metals. We expect base metal prices remain volatile and any positive outcome of US-China trade talk will support prices at lower levels. Today, Copper is having support around 432-428 while resistance at 439-441. Nickel will trade in a range of 834-864, Zinc will trade in a range of 216-223, and Lead will trade in a range of 127-133 while Aluminium trade in a range of 144-150.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Copper is having support at 432 and 428 while resistance at 439 and 441, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. AGRI COMMODITYStrong rupee and weak global cues puts pressure on agri commodities. Trend volatile. ReviewTuesday, Soybean settled weak in domestic markets at 3685 per quintal with the loss of 0.41%. CBOT were settled at 842. Strength in rupee and weakness in global commodity markets put pressure on domestic agriculture commodities market. Dollar index also gain and which also puts pressure on global commodities. We expect agriculture commodities remain volatile and spice complex will get support at lower levels. Most of the commodities at NCDEX settled weak, Chana settled with the loss of 0.39%, Castor seed settled weak with the loss of 2.37%. RM Seed closed negative with the loss of 0.61%. Guar Seed settled positive with the gain of 0.54% while Guar Gum settled with the gain of 0.57%. Spices pack settled weak Coriander, Jeera and Turmeric settled with loss due to profit booking. Cotton seed oilcake closed positive with the gain of 1.22%. Refined Soyoil closed positive with the gain of 0.11%. We expect Refined Soyoil to trade in a range of 734-748.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Soybean is having support around 3660-3630 while resistance at 3710-3740, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 737-734 while resistance at 746-748 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news. Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)