Once again we witnessed a whipsaw in the Indian markets where the benchmarks indices attempted for a bounce and ultimately gave up. The index Nifty started the session on a positive note and surged around 70 points from its previous close. However, the moment was short lived as selling pressure aggravated and forced the index to close with another cut of more than 100 points. Nifty Bank was the main culprit since it plunged around 800 points from day’s high to close with a loss of 500 points.
The market breadth largely remained in the favour of declining counters right from the beginning. On the sectoral front, the NIFTY PSUBANK (-4.88%) and NIFTY METAL (-3.25%) stocks were the worst performers while the NIFTY IT (+0.65%) stocks remained resilient. From the F&O space, BEL (+4.9%), STAR (+3.7%) and BHARTIARTL (+3.2%) remained upbeat.
Since past couple of sessions we have been discussing about 11100 mark which was a trend line support and the placement of 200 DSMA. Now the index has breached that and closed well below the same. Thus, we maintain our downside positional target of 10800 – 10600 from here on. This is because the breakdown is accompanied with another range break in RSI.
Also, we have been echoing that the selling by FII’s in cash segment indicates that it’s not over yet. Thus, we continue with sell on rise view unless there is any sign of strong bottom formation. The major resistance as now shifted to 11300 for positional basis. The immediate resistance is now placed at 11150 and the psychological support is now at 11000 for the coming session.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 29-JUL-2019
NIFTY Daily CHART :
Indian markets maintained its southward journey for the fourth consecutive week. The index Nifty spot remained under pressure throughout the week to close with a loss of more than a percent. During the process, it also breached the crucial support of 11300. On the other hand, Nifty Bank index lost around -1.5%. On the sectoral front, the NIFTY AUTO PSU BANK (-5.13%) and NIFTY FINSERVICE (-2.68%) stocks were the worst performers while the NIFTY MEDIA (+5.61%) and NIFTY PHARMA (+1.73%) stocks remained resilient. From the F&O space, M&MFIN (-17.89%), VODAFONE (-15.53%) and CANBK (-9.42%) shattered.The weekly chart of Nifty depicts that at this juncture, index is resting above its long term rising trend line. That breakdown will get confirmed below 11100 mark which is also the placement of 200 Day SMA. For the time being this seems to be a support but there was another breakdown below 11300 (shown as dotted line) which has a downside target of around 10700. Thus, we will have to wait and watch whether index respects long term trend line or the impact of breakdown. Short term traders who wish to play for bounce can go long above 11350 for upside of around 100 – 200 points. However, the major upside trend won’t resume before 11600 mark. Also, the selling by FII’s in cash segment indicates that it’s not over yet. Hence, it is better to concentrate on individual stocks which are still giving decent opportunities for fresh bounce and also some exciting shorts.
RELIANCE : BEARISH
Since past few months, RELIANCE has been an outperformer but now is on the verge of trend line breakdown.The trend line breakdown is coupled with a structure which resembles bearish ‘Head and Shoulder’ pattern.Weekly RSI too is on the verge of breakdown which indicates beginning of a corrective move.Traders can sell the stock on between 1210 – 1230; with a stop of 1300 for the target of 1140 - 1060 in the coming weeks.
Disclaimer)
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 01-AUG-2019
NIFTY Daily ChartInitially, Nifty turned down and tested the support of 11000 and then recovered sharply to cross 11100 mark. However, our mentioned level of 11150 acted as a strong resistance yesterday (this was again the 200 Day SMA). Going ahead a move above 11150 only would result in some more relief in the market. However, on the downside 11000 would continue to act as support. As per the option chain, highest built up is seen in 11200 CE to the tune of around 2.5 million shares. So this could be a strong hurdle whereas on the downside 11000 is a base with 2.4 million shares in 11000 strike PE. Since the SGX NIFTY indicates a negative opening, traders can look for buying opportunity near 11000 levels only. Aggressive bets can be made only above 11150 mark. With regards to NIFTY BANK index , the index turned from the 28500 mark but on the upside failed to clear 29000 levels. Thus, it is stuck between 28500 – 29000 range. A move on the either side will dictate the further trend. Although we expect a bounce in the market but we maintain our cautious stance.BEL : BULLISH
Post recent correction, the stock took a U – turn from the extension of its previous breakout
The support coincides with the placement of 200 day SMA which indicates fresh upside.
Even the daily RSI has turned from the support of 30.
Traders can buy the stock between 102 – 98with a stop of 92 for the upside target of 116.
Disclaimer)
Share Market Today - 31st July 2019
Disclaimer
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Share Market Today - 29th July 2019
NIFTY Daily CHART : Indian markets maintained its southward journey for the fourth consecutive week. The index Nifty spot remained under pressure throughout the week to close with a loss of more than a percent. During the process, it also breached the crucial support of 11300. On the other hand, Nifty Bank index lost around -1.5%. On the sectoral front, the NIFTY AUTO PSU BANK (-5.13%) and NIFTY FINSERVICE (-2.68%) stocks were the worst performers while the NIFTY MEDIA (+5.61%) and NIFTY PHARMA (+1.73%) stocks remained resilient. From the F&O space, M&MFIN (-17.89%), VODAFONE (-15.53%) and CANBK (-9.42%) shattered.The weekly chart of Nifty depicts that at this juncture, index is resting above its long term rising trend line. That breakdown will get confirmed below 11100 mark which is also the placement of 200 Day SMA. For the time being this seems to be a support but there was another breakdown below 11300 (shown as dotted line) which has a downside target of around 10700. Thus, we will have to wait and watch whether index respects long term trend line or the impact of breakdown. Short term traders who wish to play for bounce can go long above 11350 for upside of around 100 – 200 points. However, the major upside trend won’t resume before 11600 mark. Also, the selling by FII’s in cash segment indicates that it’s not over yet. Hence, it is better to concentrate on individual stocks which are still giving decent opportunities for fresh bounce and also some exciting shorts. RELIANCE : BEARISH Since past few months, RELIANCE has been an outperformer but now is on the verge of trend line breakdown.The trend line breakdown is coupled with a structure which resembles bearish ‘Head and Shoulder’ pattern.Weekly RSI too is on the verge of breakdown which indicates beginning of a corrective move.Traders can sell the stock on between 1210 – 1230; with a stop of 1300 for the target of 1140 - 1060 in the coming weeks. Disclaimer)
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Share Market Today - 1st August 2019
NIFTY Daily ChartInitially, Nifty turned down and tested the support of 11000 and then recovered sharply to cross 11100 mark. However, our mentioned level of 11150 acted as a strong resistance yesterday (this was again the 200 Day SMA). Going ahead a move above 11150 only would result in some more relief in the market. However, on the downside 11000 would continue to act as support. As per the option chain, highest built up is seen in 11200 CE to the tune of around 2.5 million shares. So this could be a strong hurdle whereas on the downside 11000 is a base with 2.4 million shares in 11000 strike PE. Since the SGX NIFTY indicates a negative opening, traders can look for buying opportunity near 11000 levels only. Aggressive bets can be made only above 11150 mark. With regards to NIFTY BANK index , the index turned from the 28500 mark but on the upside failed to clear 29000 levels. Thus, it is stuck between 28500 – 29000 range. A move on the either side will dictate the further trend. Although we expect a bounce in the market but we maintain our cautious stance.BEL : BULLISH Post recent correction, the stock took a U – turn from the extension of its previous breakout The support coincides with the placement of 200 day SMA which indicates fresh upside. Even the daily RSI has turned from the support of 30. Traders can buy the stock between 102 – 98with a stop of 92 for the upside target of 116. Disclaimer)