The volatile series of April 2019 ended on a disappointing note during yesterday’s session. Overall, the index remained flat during the entire series. The domestic markets underwent sharp selloff during the second half to close near day’s low. The index Nifty spot almost retested the 11800 mark during the first half and suddenly suffered selling pressure and closed well below 11700 mark with a loss of around 85 points. Meanwhile, the Nifty Bank index lost around 300 points from its previous close.
As the day progressed, market breadth turned in the favour of declining counters which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, apart from NIFTY REALTY (+0.32%) all the other group indices failed to close in positive terrain. From the losers, NIFTY METAL (-1.86%) and NIFTY PSU BANK (-1.56%) stocks remained under pressure. From the F&O space, INFRATEL (-10.33%), M&MFIN (-4.22%) and GODREJCP (-3.62%) were the biggest.
MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY DAILY CHART :
Once again the index is hovering above the crucial support of 11550. Thus we maintain our stance that if the support of 11550 is held then we might witness a relief rally going ahead. Now going ahead, a move above 11750 might full the index towards all-time high. Although we are bullish for short term but we continue to maintain our medium term view that this rally should be used to book profits in long positions. In case of any downside, 11620 – 11550 levels are likely to attract buying interest in coming sessions. Due to election activities we expect some volatility and thus continue to advice traders to avoid overleveraged positions and maintain strict stop loss.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 25-APR-2019
BULLION Gold and silver prices rebound from 4month low; strong dollar will limit gain. Trend volatile Review Yesterday, both the precious metals were trades positive in international markets. Gold settled at $1279.40 per troy ounce up by 0.49% while silver settled at $14.91 per troy ounce up by 0.81%. Domestic markets were also settled positive and weakness in rupees help prices in domestic markets. Gold settled at Rs.31818 per 10 gram with the gain of 0.81% and MCX Silver settled at 37482 per 1 kilogram with the gain of 1.37%. Gold and silver prices rebound in international markets from recent four months low on risk aversion and short coverings. Dollar index shows further strength and closes at multi month high which will limit gains in precious metals. In domestic markets weak rupee is supporting prices. We expect bullion prices remain volatile. Gold is having support at $1272-1266 and resistance at $1284-1292. Silver is having support at $14.74-14.60 while resistance at $15.04-15.20. TECHNICAL OUTLOOKToday, Gold is having support at 31599-31379 while resistance at 31938-32057, silver is having support at 37095-36709 and resistance at 37686-37891. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
ENERGY Crude oil prices dip as Iran sanctions offset by rising inventory in U.S. Trend firm. Review Yesterday, Crude oil prices traded slightly weak in international market WTI Crude settled at $65.89 while Brent settled at $74.57 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled weak at 4629 per barrel with the loss of 0.26%. Crude oil shows some profit booking from higher levels as U.S. Crude oil inventory rise and OPEC also hint for increase production. U.S. crude oil inventories surged more than expected last week, according to official government data released on Wednesday, although the report also indicated that OPEC may have already increased supply. The EIA said in its regular weekly report that crude oil inventories rose by 5.48 million barrels in the week to April 19. Rising inventory in U.S., OPEC hint for increase production and restore production in Venezuela will limits further gain in crude oil prices. We expect crude oil will trade in a range of $64.50-67. Crude oil is having support at $65.50-64.80 and resistance at $66.40-67. TECHNICAL OUTLOOKCrude oil is having support at 4595-4562 while resistance at 4677-4726, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
BASE METALBase metals gain on hope of trade deal and Chinese growth. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, base metal prices settled positive in international market. 3M LME copper settled at $6444 per metric ton up by 0.31% from previous close. Base metal prices rebound in yesterday’s session amid hope of US-China trade deal, strong Chinese growth and weakness in rupee. The White House said that top U.S. officials will travel to Beijing for trade talks next week, with one leading official expressing optimism about striking a deal. Most industrial metals declined on Tuesday after comments by Chinese officials dampened hopes for more stimulus measures. It looks like the market is shifting its focus more towards the trade negotiations and also the brightening outlook for Chinese economy in the second half of the year. Gains were capped by strong dollar index but weakness in rupee supports prices in domestic markets. Now investors will closely watch Chinese April PMI data which is due next week and which gives direction to metal markets. Today, Copper is having support around 443-435 while resistance at 461-471. Nickel will trade in a range of 854-888, Zinc will trade in a range of 226-231, and Lead will trade in a range of 132-137 while Aluminium trade in a range of 150-155TECHNICAL OUTLOOKCopper is having support at 443 and 435 while resistance at 461 and 471, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
AGRI COMMODITYWeakness rupee and stockiest demand support agriculture commodities. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, Soybean settled positive in domestic markets at 3731 per quintal with the gain of 0.08%. CBOT were settled at 858. Weakness in rupee and demand of stockiest support agriculture commodities. Most of the commodities at NCDEX gain in yesterday’s session. CBOT and Bursa Malaysia is remain in pressure and which limits gain in oil complex. Castor seed and Coriander gain with increase in export demand in both the commodities. Other commodities at NCDEX settled positive, Chana settled with the gain of 0.09%, Castor seed settled positive with the gain of 2.72%. RM Seed closed positive with the gain of 0.13%. Guar Seed settled positive with the gain of 0.32% while Guar Gum settled with the loss of 0.03%. Spices pack settled positive Coriander, Jeera and Turmeric settled with gain. Cotton seed oilcake closed weak with the loss of 0.44%. Refined Soyoil closed positive with the gain of 0.55%. We expect Refined Soyoil to trade in a range of 737-750. TECHNICAL OUTLOOKSoybean is having support around 3700-3680 while resistance at 3760-3780, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 740-737 while resistance at 748-750 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news.
Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 26-APR-2019
TECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRDollar/Rupee struggled in a small range yesterday and settled at 69.9025 compared to previous day close of 69.7275 levels. It jumped towards six-week high on Wednesday tracking strong greenback post US housing data while oil-related dollar demand In the local market aided.Technical, Since 9 April 2019 USDINR 70.30 which is coincided with 8 April 2019 swing. Near term trend expect to remain indecisive unless pair gives a breakout of 70.30 and it may consolidate around 70.20-69.70 levels. On the upside, a break above 70.30 only would extend its gain and it may test next resistance 70.50-70.75.Trend –Neutral
Pound traded lower against the US dollar during European trades Wednesday as hopes of a breakthrough in Brexit talks in the cross-party meet faded and UK Prime Minister Theresa May faced growing pressure to quit. Media reports showed that there has been growing pressure on PM May to find a solution or name a date for her to step down. Also, a report showed on Tuesday that PM May planned a new vote on her Brexit agreement next week, which has been already defeated three times, in an attempt to break the deadlock.Technical, On the EOD chart, formation of doji candle stick is indicating for indecisiveness. Crucial support is seen at 90.85 and break below only could test next support 90.45. On the upside, resistance is seen at 91.45-91.85.Trend –Volatile
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY/EARLIER TODAY
Australia's headline consumer price index (CPI) was flat in the March quarter, below market expectation of a 0.2% increase and touching its lowest since a negative reading in early 2016.The annual CPI surged 1.3% in the March quarter, from 1.8% rise in the previous quarter, and was the lowest since the September quarter of 2016
Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged as expected, but went more dovish with its language. The central bank has all but removed the probability of a rate hike in 2019 with monetary policy to remain accommodative
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Source - investing.com, Reuters,forexlive & ticker news.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)
Share Market Today - 26th April 2019
MARKET RECAP
Key Market Data Points
The volatile series of April 2019 ended on a disappointing note during yesterday’s session. Overall, the index remained flat during the entire series. The domestic markets underwent sharp selloff during the second half to close near day’s low. The index Nifty spot almost retested the 11800 mark during the first half and suddenly suffered selling pressure and closed well below 11700 mark with a loss of around 85 points. Meanwhile, the Nifty Bank index lost around 300 points from its previous close.
As the day progressed, market breadth turned in the favour of declining counters which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, apart from NIFTY REALTY (+0.32%) all the other group indices failed to close in positive terrain. From the losers, NIFTY METAL (-1.86%) and NIFTY PSU BANK (-1.56%) stocks remained under pressure. From the F&O space, INFRATEL (-10.33%), M&MFIN (-4.22%) and GODREJCP (-3.62%) were the biggest.
MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY DAILY CHART :
Once again the index is hovering above the crucial support of 11550. Thus we maintain our stance that if the support of 11550 is held then we might witness a relief rally going ahead. Now going ahead, a move above 11750 might full the index towards all-time high. Although we are bullish for short term but we continue to maintain our medium term view that this rally should be used to book profits in long positions.
In case of any downside, 11620 – 11550 levels are likely to attract buying interest in coming sessions. Due to election activities we expect some volatility and thus continue to advice traders to avoid overleveraged positions and maintain strict stop loss.
Disclaimer
Previous Story
Daily Commodity Research Report – 25th April 2019
BULLION Gold and silver prices rebound from 4month low; strong dollar will limit gain. Trend volatile Review Yesterday, both the precious metals were trades positive in international markets. Gold settled at $1279.40 per troy ounce up by 0.49% while silver settled at $14.91 per troy ounce up by 0.81%. Domestic markets were also settled positive and weakness in rupees help prices in domestic markets. Gold settled at Rs.31818 per 10 gram with the gain of 0.81% and MCX Silver settled at 37482 per 1 kilogram with the gain of 1.37%. Gold and silver prices rebound in international markets from recent four months low on risk aversion and short coverings. Dollar index shows further strength and closes at multi month high which will limit gains in precious metals. In domestic markets weak rupee is supporting prices. We expect bullion prices remain volatile. Gold is having support at $1272-1266 and resistance at $1284-1292. Silver is having support at $14.74-14.60 while resistance at $15.04-15.20. TECHNICAL OUTLOOKToday, Gold is having support at 31599-31379 while resistance at 31938-32057, silver is having support at 37095-36709 and resistance at 37686-37891. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. ENERGY Crude oil prices dip as Iran sanctions offset by rising inventory in U.S. Trend firm. Review Yesterday, Crude oil prices traded slightly weak in international market WTI Crude settled at $65.89 while Brent settled at $74.57 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled weak at 4629 per barrel with the loss of 0.26%. Crude oil shows some profit booking from higher levels as U.S. Crude oil inventory rise and OPEC also hint for increase production. U.S. crude oil inventories surged more than expected last week, according to official government data released on Wednesday, although the report also indicated that OPEC may have already increased supply. The EIA said in its regular weekly report that crude oil inventories rose by 5.48 million barrels in the week to April 19. Rising inventory in U.S., OPEC hint for increase production and restore production in Venezuela will limits further gain in crude oil prices. We expect crude oil will trade in a range of $64.50-67. Crude oil is having support at $65.50-64.80 and resistance at $66.40-67. TECHNICAL OUTLOOKCrude oil is having support at 4595-4562 while resistance at 4677-4726, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. BASE METALBase metals gain on hope of trade deal and Chinese growth. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, base metal prices settled positive in international market. 3M LME copper settled at $6444 per metric ton up by 0.31% from previous close. Base metal prices rebound in yesterday’s session amid hope of US-China trade deal, strong Chinese growth and weakness in rupee. The White House said that top U.S. officials will travel to Beijing for trade talks next week, with one leading official expressing optimism about striking a deal. Most industrial metals declined on Tuesday after comments by Chinese officials dampened hopes for more stimulus measures. It looks like the market is shifting its focus more towards the trade negotiations and also the brightening outlook for Chinese economy in the second half of the year. Gains were capped by strong dollar index but weakness in rupee supports prices in domestic markets. Now investors will closely watch Chinese April PMI data which is due next week and which gives direction to metal markets. Today, Copper is having support around 443-435 while resistance at 461-471. Nickel will trade in a range of 854-888, Zinc will trade in a range of 226-231, and Lead will trade in a range of 132-137 while Aluminium trade in a range of 150-155TECHNICAL OUTLOOKCopper is having support at 443 and 435 while resistance at 461 and 471, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. AGRI COMMODITYWeakness rupee and stockiest demand support agriculture commodities. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, Soybean settled positive in domestic markets at 3731 per quintal with the gain of 0.08%. CBOT were settled at 858. Weakness in rupee and demand of stockiest support agriculture commodities. Most of the commodities at NCDEX gain in yesterday’s session. CBOT and Bursa Malaysia is remain in pressure and which limits gain in oil complex. Castor seed and Coriander gain with increase in export demand in both the commodities. Other commodities at NCDEX settled positive, Chana settled with the gain of 0.09%, Castor seed settled positive with the gain of 2.72%. RM Seed closed positive with the gain of 0.13%. Guar Seed settled positive with the gain of 0.32% while Guar Gum settled with the loss of 0.03%. Spices pack settled positive Coriander, Jeera and Turmeric settled with gain. Cotton seed oilcake closed weak with the loss of 0.44%. Refined Soyoil closed positive with the gain of 0.55%. We expect Refined Soyoil to trade in a range of 737-750. TECHNICAL OUTLOOKSoybean is having support around 3700-3680 while resistance at 3760-3780, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 740-737 while resistance at 748-750 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news. Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
Next Story
Daily Currency Research Report – 25th April 2019
TECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRDollar/Rupee struggled in a small range yesterday and settled at 69.9025 compared to previous day close of 69.7275 levels. It jumped towards six-week high on Wednesday tracking strong greenback post US housing data while oil-related dollar demand In the local market aided.Technical, Since 9 April 2019 USDINR 70.30 which is coincided with 8 April 2019 swing. Near term trend expect to remain indecisive unless pair gives a breakout of 70.30 and it may consolidate around 70.20-69.70 levels. On the upside, a break above 70.30 only would extend its gain and it may test next resistance 70.50-70.75.Trend –Neutral Pound traded lower against the US dollar during European trades Wednesday as hopes of a breakthrough in Brexit talks in the cross-party meet faded and UK Prime Minister Theresa May faced growing pressure to quit. Media reports showed that there has been growing pressure on PM May to find a solution or name a date for her to step down. Also, a report showed on Tuesday that PM May planned a new vote on her Brexit agreement next week, which has been already defeated three times, in an attempt to break the deadlock.Technical, On the EOD chart, formation of doji candle stick is indicating for indecisiveness. Crucial support is seen at 90.85 and break below only could test next support 90.45. On the upside, resistance is seen at 91.45-91.85.Trend –Volatile MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY/EARLIER TODAY Australia's headline consumer price index (CPI) was flat in the March quarter, below market expectation of a 0.2% increase and touching its lowest since a negative reading in early 2016.The annual CPI surged 1.3% in the March quarter, from 1.8% rise in the previous quarter, and was the lowest since the September quarter of 2016 Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged as expected, but went more dovish with its language. The central bank has all but removed the probability of a rate hike in 2019 with monetary policy to remain accommodative Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Source - investing.com, Reuters,forexlive & ticker news. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)