RBI keeps Repo Rate unchanged at 5.15%

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Monetary Policy: RBI surprises the market; keeps policy rate unchanged at 5.15%

RBI TAKES A PAUSE, KEEPS REPO RATE UNCHANGED; AND MAINTAINS MONETARY POLICY STANCE “ACCOMMODATIVE”. GDP GROWTH ESTIMATES FOR FY20 HAVE BEEN SLASHED SHARPLY TO 5.0% FROM 6.1% IN OCT’19

 RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC) left the repo rate unchanged at 5.15%. All members voted in favour of keeping rates unchanged. This was the first pause after five consecutive rate cuts this year (135 bps reduction from Feb to Oct’19) as it expects the past monetary easing and measures taken by the government to gradually help in the economic revival.

 The MPC also decided to continue with its “accommodative” stance as long as it is necessary to revive economic growth, while ensuring that CPI inflation remains within the target.

 The MPC recognized that there is space for rate cuts in the future, but given the evolving growth-inflation dynamics, it decided to take a pause at this juncture and maintained that it is prudent to carefully monitor incoming data to gain clarity on the inflation outlook.

 Inflation has increased sharply in the last two months and may stay high for some time. However, core inflation is expected to remain below 4% as per RBI estimates.

 The MPC was of the view that the forthcoming union budget will provide better insight into further measures to be undertaken by the government and their impact on growth.


RBI keeps Repo Rate unchanged at 5.15%


The key highlights of the policy:


 CPI inflation projection has been revised upwards to 5.1–4.7% for the second H2FY20 and 4.0–3.8 % for H1FY21, with risks broadly balanced.

 Real GDP growth for FY20 is revised downwards from 6.1% in the October policy to 5%, with a delay in demand revival being the key downside risk to the GDP.

 Real GDP growth in Q2 was weighed down by a sharp slowdown in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), cushioned by a jump in government final consumption expenditure (GFCE). Excluding GFCE, GDP growth would have been at 3.1% as per RBI’s assessment.

 RBI expects stronger monetary policy rate transmission under its external benchmarking regime, which was introduced from October 1.


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 RBI’s decision to not lower interest rate has come as a surprise and hereon the emphasis will be on transmission of earlier rate cuts. In the growth-inflation tradeoff, the RBI has clearly leaned towards keeping inflation in check. Revised
projections of GDP and CPI inflation seem to be realistic.

 Bond markets had already factored in a rate cut and the yield on the 10-year government bond surged by ~12 basis points to hit 6.58% (one month high) after the monetary policy announcement.

 Investors in short & medium duration funds should continue to hold till the cycle of rate reduction is complete. We recommend investment in high-quality AAA oriented short-term and banking & PSU debt funds. Fresh investments in short to medium term is recommended with a 1-to-3 year investment horizon.








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