Currency Updates 6th March 2020

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The USDINR pair retreated from the day’s high of 73.7850 and settled at 73.55 as compared to previous day’s close of 73.5250. The pair dropped to the day’s low of 73.26, on likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, which in turn may cause exporters to sell their dollar holdings before the end of the current fiscal year. However, losses remained limited, as the spread of coronavirus in India drove investors into the safety of the greenback. US Treasury yields climbing above 1% coupled with upbeat jobs data helped the dollar find its footing after it was shaken up by US Federal Reserve's surprise rate cut.

Technically, the intraday price action resulted in the formation of a high-wave candlestick, which is indicating a volatile momentum in the near future. However, the pair is still trading above its previous swing high of 73.05, which is still indicating a bullish momentum. Hence, any temporary correction towards 73.40–73.35 is expected to attract buying in the near future, and the next upside target is expected to be at 73.65–73.80 levels. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 73.05 and 72.80.

Trend: Volatile to Bullish


The GBPINR pair witnessed 0.97% intraday gains and settled at 94.90 levels as compared to the previous day’s close of 93.9575. The pair saw strong pullback from the day’s low of 94.2575, after the incoming Bank of England governor said he would wait for more clarity about the virus before moving interest rates, rather than rushing to an emergency cut.

Technically, on the EOD chart, the GBPINR pair broke its massive resistance of 94.65, which coincides with its previous swing high and formed a bullish candlestick on the chart, both of which are indicating a bullish momentum in the near future. Today, a break above 95.05 would extend the recent gain and the next upside target expected at 95.50–95.80. Alternatively, failures to break this level will cause a correction towards the immediate support of 94.65–94.20 again.

Trend: Bullish


Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today

<    German February construction PMI stood at 55.8 as compared to the previous reading of 54.9.

<    Japanese household spending for January declined -3.9% y/y as compared to previous reading of -4.8%.

<    New Zealand’s Q4 construction work fell 0.8% q/q as compared to the 0.4% growth in the previous quarter.

<    US jobless claims fell by 3,000 to 216,000 in the week ended February 29, according to Labor Department figures released Thursday, which were in line with the median estimate in Bloomberg’s survey of economists. The four-week average, a less-volatile measure, edged up to 213,000.



 

Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar.

Technical chart source: TickerNews

Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com

*DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.



Disclaimer:
This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.



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Commodity Report 6th March 2020

Daily change & technical levels Scrip Close Change (%) R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 GOLD 44458 2.04 45328 44893 44068 43633 42808 SILVER 47372 1.48 48192 47782 47021 46611 45850 CRUDE 3431 -2.17 3560 3495 3454 3389 3348 NG 132.50 -1.19 137.80 135.20 133.70 131.10 129.60 ALUMINI 138.50 0.07 139.40 138.95 138.45 138.00 137.50 COPPER 431.00 0.57 434.60 432.80 430.00 428.20 425.40 LEADMINI 144.95 0.59 146.10 145.50 144.60 144.00 143.10 NICKEL 959.30 1.91 974.20 966.70 954.40 946.90 934.60 ZINCMINI 157.75 1.58 159.50 158.60 157.30 156.40 155.00 DIAMOND 3711.45 0.54 3745.75 3728.60 3697.35 3680.20 3648.95 STEELLONG 31180 0.45 31570 31380 31100 30910 30630   Comex division Bullions Last close Change (%) Gold $1668.00 1.52 Silver $17.39 0.81   Base metal inventory Scrip Inventory Change Alumni 1040775 -9975 Copper 203275 -3300 Lead 69575 +350 Nickel 235950 +546 Zinc 74600 -125 * Closing rates of 5 Mar & LME stock of 5 Mar BULLION Gold and silver gain after panic sell-off in US equity markets. Trend volatile. Review On Thursday, gold and silver prices settled on a positive note in the international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,668.00 per troy ounce, up by 1.52%, while silver May futures settled at $17.39 per troy ounce, up by 0.81%. Domestic markets also settled on a positive note. Gold settled at Rs44,458 per 10 grams with a gain of 2.04%, and silver settled at Rs47,372 per kilogram with a gain of 1.48%. Gold and silver gained on Thursday after a panic sell-off in the US equity markets. The Dow Jones index plunged around 1,000 points after California declared a state of emergency due to the coronavirus outbreak. After monetary easing by major global central banks, global equities are still under pressure due to the coronavirus outbreak and safe-haven assets are again attracting investors. Gold prices gained around 13% in domestic markets and reached lifetime highs. We expect the uncertainty in the global financial markets to continue to support gold and silver prices, and further strength is expected in both precious metals. Gold has support at $1,655–1,644 and resistance at $1,688–1,700. Silver has support at $17.14–17.00, while resistance is at $17.55–17.70. Today, gold has support at Rs43,633–42,808, while resistance is at Rs44,893–45,328. Silver has support at Rs46,611–45,850, while resistance is at Rs47,782–48,192. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. ENERGY Crude oil extends fall ahead of OPEC meeting outcome and sell-off in global equities. Trend volatile. Review On Thursday, crude oil settled on a weaker note in international markets as WTI crude settled at $45.90 per barrel, while Brent settled at $50.05 per barrel. Domestic markets also settled on a weaker note at Rs3,431 per barrel with a loss of 2.17%. Crude oil prices slipped in international markets after a sell-off in global equity markets due to the coronavirus outbreak and ahead of the OPEC meeting outcome. OPEC member Saudi Arabia proposed a 1.5 million barrel output cut against previous proposal of a 1.0 million barrel cut to stabilize global crude oil prices, which are struggling due to slower demand amid the coronavirus outbreak. However, OPEC ally Russia has not yet signed the plan and OPEC has given an ultimatum to sign the proposal for deeper oil cuts. We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile today and if Russia doesn’t agree on deeper production cuts then further weakness in crude oil prices cannot be ruled out. Crude oil is expected to be traded in the range of $45-47 per barrel. Crude oil has support at $45.20–44.70 and resistance is at $46.50–47.00. Crude oil has support at Rs3,389–3,348, while resistance is at Rs3,495–3,560; traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. BASE METALS Base metals extend gain on the hope of Chinese stimulus and lower LME inventory. Trend volatile. Review On Thursday, base metals settled on a mixed note in the international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,694.00 per metric ton with a loss of 0.39% from the previous close. Base metals gained on Thursday on the hope of a Chinese stimulus to boost economy, which is struggling from the coronavirus outbreak. Interest rate cuts by major global central banks to support global economies are also supporting base metal prices. Base metals also get support due to falling inventories at LME warehouses. However, a sell-off in global equities limited gains in base metal prices. We expect volatility in base metal prices to continue due to a weakness in global equities and a pressure on global economy due to the coronavirus outbreak. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs428–425, while resistance is at Rs433–435. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs944–982, zinc should trade in the range of Rs154–161, lead should trade in the range of Rs142–148, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs137–141. Copper has support at Rs428 and Rs425, while resistance is at Rs433 and Rs435; traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. AGRI COMMODITIES Agricultural commodities extend gain due to unseasonal rains and value buying at lower levels. Trend volatile. Review On Thursday, agricultural commodities extended gain in domestic markets after unseasonal rainfall in most of the producing states and value buying at lower levels. Oil seeds and edible oil witnessed a solid recovery in the last three trading sessions due to short covering and recovery in international markets. Bursa Malaysia KLC also settled positive. Soybean March futures settled on a positive note in the domestic markets at Rs3,800 per quintal with a gain of 1.39%. CBOT settled at 897 cents. Other agricultural commodities also settled on a positive note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a loss of 0.30%, while castor seed futures settled with a gain of 1.11%. RM seed April futures closed with a gain of 2.22%. Guar seed settled with a gain of 0.21%, and guar gum also settled with a gain of 0.49%. The spices pack also settled on a positive note; coriander, jeera and turmeric settled positive. Cotton seed oilcake March futures closed positive with a gain of 3.97%. Refined soy oil March futures closed positive at Rs800.00. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs788–812. Soybean has support at Rs3,760–3,733, while resistance is at Rs3,855–3,880. Refined soy oil has support at Rs792–788, while resistance is at Rs808–812. Traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)

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2nd Week of March 2020

Indian Markets Recap Nifty Outlook (Some Bounce Likely) Bank Nifty Outlook US 10 Year Bond Yield INDIA 10 Year Bond Yield Sectoral Outlook FII Activity: Derivatives and Cash Market (Weekly) Derivative View LONG BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % PIDILITIND 1652.45 1.63% 2107500 12.31% HAVELLS 633.05 0.08% 6515000 5.99% CADILAHC 263.65 0.92% 5253600 1.23% DIVISLAB 2239.1 0.24% 2238800 0.27%           Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research   SHORT BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % MFSL 522.15 -13.41% 3502200 31.99% RBLBANK 254.6 -14.68% 20767500 24.81% NIFTY 10939.9 -2.80% 19786425 13.69% PETRONET 235.95 -2.96% 10494000 12.80% HDFCLIFE 549.75 -3.05% 1777500 10.71% Nifty 50 Pivot SYMBOL Close S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 341.40 326.67 334.03 338.62 345.98 350.57 ASIANPAINT 1877.45 1816.22 1846.83 1865.62 1896.23 1915.02 AXISBANK 657.65 633.42 645.53 653.17 665.28 672.92 BAJAJ-AUTO 2735.05 2566.35 2650.70 2704.35 2788.70 2842.35 BAJFINANCE 4225.85 3965.28 4095.57 4166.78 4297.07 4368.28 BAJAJFINSV 8603.20 8317.73 8460.47 8542.73 8685.47 8767.73 BPCL 403.10 391.80 397.45 403.65 409.30 415.50 BHARTIARTL 519.15 505.88 512.52 518.08 524.72 530.28 INFRATEL 203.70 196.10 199.90 204.80 208.60 213.50 BRITANNIA 3081.40 2978.13 3029.77 3064.88 3116.52 3151.63 CIPLA 434.40 416.77 425.58 431.87 440.68 446.97 COALINDIA 168.75 162.92 165.83 169.42 172.33 175.92 DRREDDY 3170.95 3032.95 3101.95 3154.20 3223.20 3275.45 EICHERMOT 17743.55 16429.52 17086.53 17479.02 18136.03 18528.52 GAIL 107.80 99.53 103.67 106.18 110.32 112.83 GRASIM 665.05 634.42 649.73 660.32 675.63 686.22 HCLTECH 566.20 552.17 559.18 566.57 573.58 580.97 HDFCBANK 1134.90 1085.70 1110.30 1125.60 1150.20 1165.50 HEROMOTOCO 2038.30 1938.47 1988.38 2020.92 2070.83 2103.37 HINDALCO 150.10 135.73 142.92 147.18 154.37 158.63 HINDUNILVR 2188.90 2108.63 2148.77 2199.38 2239.52 2290.13 HDFC 2109.45 2063.55 2086.50 2115.75 2138.70 2167.95 ICICIBANK 486.35 467.32 476.83 486.82 496.33 506.32 ITC 181.75 177.02 179.38 182.12 184.48 187.22 IOC 100.80 98.13 99.47 100.63 101.97 103.13 INDUSINDBK 1014.80 869.37 942.08 986.52 1059.23 1103.67 INFY 738.95 722.45 730.70 737.35 745.60 752.25 JSWSTEEL 238.80 223.87 231.33 235.67 243.13 247.47 KOTAKBANK 1631.05 1578.62 1604.83 1624.42 1650.63 1670.22 LT 1158.90 1118.10 1138.50 1151.25 1171.65 1184.40 M&M 471.00 449.83 460.42 467.08 477.67 484.33 MARUTI 6445.95 5962.18 6204.07 6342.03 6583.92 6721.88 NTPC 105.15 100.78 102.97 105.08 107.27 109.38 NESTLEIND 16429.30 16032.87 16231.08 16398.32 16596.53 16763.77 ONGC 88.50 85.37 86.93 89.22 90.78 93.07 POWERGRID 190.60 186.00 188.30 190.45 192.75 194.90 RELIANCE 1271.00 1219.70 1245.35 1266.75 1292.40 1313.80 SBIN 270.50 245.83 258.17 266.28 278.62 286.73 SUNPHARMA 400.90 384.90 392.90 398.05 406.05 411.20 TCS 2116.45 2051.85 2084.15 2103.90 2136.20 2155.95 TATAMOTORS 114.20 110.27 112.23 114.77 116.73 119.27 TATASTEEL 38.95 36.68 37.82 39.13 40.27 41.58 TECHM 740.40 722.17 731.28 740.52 749.63 758.87 TITAN 1242.60 1209.17 1225.88 1236.42 1253.13 1263.67 UPL 513.60 481.77 497.68 507.27 523.18 532.77 ULTRACEMCO 4167.85 3940.42 4054.13 4123.72 4237.43 4307.02 VEDL 111.05 105.55 108.30 110.85 113.60 116.15 WIPRO 223.55 220.58 222.07 224.03 225.52 227.48 YESBANK 16.15 -9.18 3.48 18.32 30.98 45.82 ZEEL 221.15 208.58 214.87 222.83 229.12 237.08 Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Note: The levels for TATASTEEL are of TATASTEEL Partly Paid up Share Disclaimer: Investment in securities market / Mutual Funds are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.)

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