The USDINR pair had a volatile trade yesterday and, after swinging between gains and losses, settled at 73.6925 as compared to Tuesday’s close of 73.507, up 0.24%. The pair hit 73.8975, the highest level since 21 October 2018, after a report of new coronavirus cases in India. According to recent reports, 15 Italian tourists tested positive for coronavirus and are currently in the ITBP Chhawla camp in New Delhi. With these new cases, the total number of cases confirmed in India has gone up to 18. However, the pair retreated more than 40 paisa from the day’s high, on selling by nationalised banks likely on behalf of Reserve Bank of India in order to curb sharp volatility in the spot pair.
Technically, the intraday price action resulted in the formation of a high-wave candlestick which is indicating a volatile momentum in the near future. However, the pair is still trading above its previous swing high of 73.05, which is still indicating a bullish momentum. Hence, any temporary correction towards 73.35–73.25 is expected to attract buying in the near future, and the next upside target is expected to be at 73.70-74.00 levels. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 72.80 and 72.55.
Trend: Volatile
The GBPINR retreated from the day’s high of 94.6475 and settled at 93.9575 levels as compared to the previous day’s close of 93.9725. The pair saw some pressure after soft services sector data released yesterday. The UK Markit services PMI rose to 53.2 in February from 53.3 January, missing market expectations of 53.3. Earlier in the morning, the pair opened positive, as after the incoming Bank of England governor said he would wait for more clarity about the virus before moving interest rates, rather than rushing to an emergency cut.
Technically, on the EOD chart, the GBPINR pair is trading on the verge of an important resistance of 94.65, which coincides with its previous swing high and forms an indecisive candlestick on the chart, both of which are indicating a volatile to range-bound trade in the near future. On the upside, a break above 94.65 will extend the recent gains and the upside target is expected at 95.20–95.55. Alternatively, a failure to break this level will cause a correction towards the immediate support of 93.40–93.00 again.
Trend: Volatile
Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today
< German February final services PMI came in a 52.5 as compared to the previous reading of 53.3. The composite PMI was at 50.7 as compared to the previous reading of 51.1.
< French February final services stood at PMI 52.5 as compared to the previous reading of 52.60.
< Italian February services PMI was at 52.1 as compared to the previous reading of 51.40.
< Eurozone February final services PMI stood at 52.6 as compared to the previous reading of 52.8, the composite PMI was at 51.6 vs 51.6 prelim.
< Eurozone February flash manufacturing PMI was at 49.1 as compared to the previous reading of 47.9.
< Italy’s Q4 final GDP -0.3% as compared to -0.3% q/q prelim GDP +0.1% vs 0.0% y/y prelim.
< UK February final services PMI was at 53.2 as compared to the previous reading of 53.3.
< Eurozone January retail sales were up +0.6% as compared to previous figure of -1.6%, revised to -1.1%.
< Royal Bank of Canada (TO:RY) said on Wednesday it would cut its prime rate to 3.45% from 3.95% in its first reduction since July 2015, with the country's other lenders expected to follow suit, even as the moves weigh on margins already under pressure.
< Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark overnight rate to 1.25% from 1.75%, prompting money markets to price in a better than even chance of another reduction next month.
Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index unexpectedly rose 1.8 points to 57.3 in January, according to data Wednesday.
Impact: High | Low | Medium
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar.
Technical chart source: TickerNews
Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com
*DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 05-MAR-2020
Daily change & technical levels
Scrip
Close
Change (%)
R2
R1
Pivot
S1
S2
GOLD
43569
0.22
44032
43800
43547
43315
43062
SILVER
46683
0.66
47264
46974
46599
46309
45934
CRUDE
3507
1.45
3635
3571
3513
3449
3391
NG
134.10
0.30
139.00
136.50
134.20
131.70
129.40
ALUMINI
138.40
0.62
139.60
139.00
138.20
137.60
136.80
COPPER
428.55
0.68
431.65
430.10
428.35
426.80
425.05
LEADMINI
144.10
0.31
145.30
144.70
143.90
143.30
142.50
NICKEL
941.30
0.52
950.80
946.00
941.30
936.50
931.80
ZINCMINI
155.30
0.75
157.30
156.30
154.90
153.90
152.50
DIAMOND
3691.40
0.67
3723.30
3707.35
3683.05
3667.10
3642.80
STEELLONG
31040
-1.08
31670
31350
31190
30870
30710
Comex division
Bullions
Last close
Change (%)
Gold
$1643.00
-0.08
Silver
$17.25
0.35
Base metal inventory
Scrip
Inventory
Change
Alumni
1050750
-10625
Copper
206575
-4650
Lead
69225
+650
Nickel
235404
+150
Zinc
74725
-300
* Closing rates of 4 Mar & LME stock of 4 Mar
BULLION
Gold and silver trade sideways after interest rate cuts by major global central banks. Trend volatile.
Review
On Wednesday, gold and silver prices settled on a mixed note in international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,643.00 per troy ounce, down by 0.08%, while silver May futures settled at $17.25 per troy ounce, up by 0.35%. Due to weakness in the rupee, domestic markets settled on a positive note. Gold settled at Rs43,569 per 10 grams with a gain of 0.22%, and silver settled at Rs46,683 per kilogram with a gain of 0.66%. Gold and silver traded sideways on Wednesday after major global central banks cut interest rates. Investor risk appetite increased and global equity markets gained on Wednesday. The bullion rally also paused after former Vice President Joe Biden notched big primary wins over Sen. Bernie Sanders and upbeat US ADP non-farm employment data. On Wednesday, ADP said that 183,000 jobs were created in February, which beat expectations. According to consensus forecasts, economists were expecting to see job gains of around 170,000. We expect both precious metals to remain volatile due to excessive volatility in global equity and currency markets. Gold has support at $1,632–1,622 and resistance is at $1,654–1,666. Silver has support at $17.04–16.88, while resistance is at $17.44–17.70.
Today, gold has support at Rs43,315–43,062, while resistance is at Rs43,800–44,032. Silver has support at Rs46,309–45,934, while resistance is at Rs46,974–47,264. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss.
ENERGY
Crude oil rally paused after Russia and Saudi Arabia wants status quo on production cuts. Trend volatile.
Review
On Wednesday, crude oil settled on a weaker note in international markets as WTI crude settled at $46.78 per barrel, while Brent settled at $51.59 per barrel. Due to weakness in the rupee, domestic markets settled on a positive note at Rs3,507 per barrel with a gain of 1.45%. Crude oil prices slipped in the international markets after OPEC allies Russia and Saudi Arabia suggested maintaining a status quo on production cuts in the second quarter of 2020, as per media reports. Crude prices began the day up on reports that oil producers gathered in Vienna under the OPEC+ alliance would agree to a total production cut of at least 1 million barrels per day from this quarter onward to mitigate some of the demand destruction to energy from the novel coronavirus outbreak. US weekly stockpiles rose by 7,85,000 barrels for the week ended on 28 February against analyst expectations of 2.64 million barrels, as per EIA reports. We expect crude oil prices remain volatile today and to trade in the range of $45.50-48 per barrel. Crude oil has support at $46.00–45.50 and resistance is at $47.40–48.00.
Crude oil has support at Rs3,449–3,391, while resistance is at Rs3,571–3,635; traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss.
BASE METALS
Base metals gain after upbeat US ADP non-farm employment data. Trend volatile.
Review
On Wednesday, base metals settled on a positive note in international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,694.00 per metric ton with a gain of 0.63% from the previous close. Base metals gained on Wednesday after upbeat US ADP non-farm employment data and interest rate cuts by major global central banks. Bank of Canada also slashed key interest rates by 50 basis points. On Wednesday, ADP said that 183,000 jobs were created in February, which beat expectations. According to consensus forecasts, economists were expecting to see job gains of around 170,000. After upbeat US data and interest rate cuts, global equity markets rallied and supported base metal prices. We expect base metals remain volatile due to excessive volatility in global equity and currency markets. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs427–425, while resistance is at Rs430–432. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs922–960, zinc should trade in the range of Rs152–158, lead should trade in the range of Rs142–146, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs136–141.
Copper has support at Rs427 and Rs425, while resistance is at Rs430 and Rs432; traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss.
AGRI COMMODITIES
Agricultural commodities extend gain after rally in global agricultural commodities. Trend volatile.
Review
On Wednesday, agricultural commodities extended gains in domestic markets after a rally in global agricultural commodities. Oil seeds and edible oil witnessed a solid recovery in the last two trading sessions due to short covering and value buying at lower levels. Bursa Malaysia KLC also settled positive. Soybean March futures settled on a positive note in the domestic markets at Rs3,746 per quintal with a gain of 0.46%. CBOT settled at 907 cents. Other agricultural commodities also settled on a positive note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a gain of 0.40%, while castor seed futures settled with a gain of 0.64%. RM seed April futures closed with a gain of 0.48%. Guar seed settled with a gain of 1.44%, and guar gum also settled with a gain of 2.76%. The spices pack settled on a mixed note; coriander settled positive, while jeera and turmeric settled negative. Cotton seed oilcake March futures closed positive with a gain of 3.95%. Refined soy oil March futures closed positive at Rs797.00. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs784–812.
Soybean has support at Rs3,710–3,680, while resistance is at Rs3,800–3,830. Refined soy oil has support at Rs788–784, while resistance is at Rs808–812. Traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
Currency Updates 5th March 2020
The USDINR pair had a volatile trade yesterday and, after swinging between gains and losses, settled at 73.6925 as compared to Tuesday’s close of 73.507, up 0.24%. The pair hit 73.8975, the highest level since 21 October 2018, after a report of new coronavirus cases in India. According to recent reports, 15 Italian tourists tested positive for coronavirus and are currently in the ITBP Chhawla camp in New Delhi. With these new cases, the total number of cases confirmed in India has gone up to 18. However, the pair retreated more than 40 paisa from the day’s high, on selling by nationalised banks likely on behalf of Reserve Bank of India in order to curb sharp volatility in the spot pair.
Technically, the intraday price action resulted in the formation of a high-wave candlestick which is indicating a volatile momentum in the near future. However, the pair is still trading above its previous swing high of 73.05, which is still indicating a bullish momentum. Hence, any temporary correction towards 73.35–73.25 is expected to attract buying in the near future, and the next upside target is expected to be at 73.70-74.00 levels. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 72.80 and 72.55.
Trend: Volatile
The GBPINR retreated from the day’s high of 94.6475 and settled at 93.9575 levels as compared to the previous day’s close of 93.9725. The pair saw some pressure after soft services sector data released yesterday. The UK Markit services PMI rose to 53.2 in February from 53.3 January, missing market expectations of 53.3. Earlier in the morning, the pair opened positive, as after the incoming Bank of England governor said he would wait for more clarity about the virus before moving interest rates, rather than rushing to an emergency cut.
Technically, on the EOD chart, the GBPINR pair is trading on the verge of an important resistance of 94.65, which coincides with its previous swing high and forms an indecisive candlestick on the chart, both of which are indicating a volatile to range-bound trade in the near future. On the upside, a break above 94.65 will extend the recent gains and the upside target is expected at 95.20–95.55. Alternatively, a failure to break this level will cause a correction towards the immediate support of 93.40–93.00 again.
Trend: Volatile
Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today
< German February final services PMI came in a 52.5 as compared to the previous reading of 53.3. The composite PMI was at 50.7 as compared to the previous reading of 51.1.
< French February final services stood at PMI 52.5 as compared to the previous reading of 52.60.
< Italian February services PMI was at 52.1 as compared to the previous reading of 51.40.
< Eurozone February final services PMI stood at 52.6 as compared to the previous reading of 52.8, the composite PMI was at 51.6 vs 51.6 prelim.
< Eurozone February flash manufacturing PMI was at 49.1 as compared to the previous reading of 47.9.
< Italy’s Q4 final GDP -0.3% as compared to -0.3% q/q prelim GDP +0.1% vs 0.0% y/y prelim.
< UK February final services PMI was at 53.2 as compared to the previous reading of 53.3.
< Eurozone January retail sales were up +0.6% as compared to previous figure of -1.6%, revised to -1.1%.
< Royal Bank of Canada (TO:RY) said on Wednesday it would cut its prime rate to 3.45% from 3.95% in its first reduction since July 2015, with the country's other lenders expected to follow suit, even as the moves weigh on margins already under pressure.
< Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark overnight rate to 1.25% from 1.75%, prompting money markets to price in a better than even chance of another reduction next month.
Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index unexpectedly rose 1.8 points to 57.3 in January, according to data Wednesday.
Impact: High | Low | Medium
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar.
Technical chart source: TickerNews
Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com
*DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
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Share Market Today 5th March 2020
Market Recap Market Outlook Bank Nifty Outlook Note on Participants Activity Derivative Outlook Exhibit 6: LONG BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % NIFTYIT 15799 0.74% 5650 15.31% TCS 2064.05 1.74% 6995750 4.85% POWERGRID 185.7 3.40% 51368000 4.46% INFY 759.25 1.25% 25993200 3.73% RBLBANK 292.95 0.86% 16432500 3.40% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Exhibit 7: SHORT BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % TATACHEM 316.2 -56.24% 855000 112.53% MOTHERSUMI 99.85 -5.09% 28170000 19.31% PVR 1655.85 -3.82% 1622000 14.19% MFSL 591.5 -0.08% 2593500 8.96% YESBANK 24.05 -9.25% 337400800 7.84% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Exhibit 8: LONG UNWINDING SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % UBL 1223.2 -0.77% 1383200 -12.87% TORNTPOWER 314.7 -1.55% 3552000 -10.51% CENTURYTEX 501.85 -5.18% 3202800 -7.97% UJJIVAN 335.4 -1.58% 4904500 -7.80% ESCORTS 834.05 -2.47% 4522100 -5.95% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Exhibit 9: SHORT COVERING SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % CIPLA 444.4 5.17% 11569000 -10.27% GAIL 106.05 2.46% 33582864 -9.00% EXIDEIND 161.25 0.94% 9712100 -8.60% NMDC 93.7 0.92% 30570000 -6.84% HINDPETRO 202.4 0.32% 15750000 -6.10% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Nifty 50 Pivots SYMBOL Close S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 345.95 335.32 340.63 345.22 350.53 355.12 ASIANPAINT 1847.95 1783.08 1815.52 1836.48 1868.92 1889.88 AXISBANK 682.20 654.47 668.33 682.17 696.03 709.87 BAJAJ-AUTO 2711.50 2598.83 2655.17 2709.83 2766.17 2820.83 BAJFINANCE 4286.40 4064.27 4175.33 4336.07 4447.13 4607.87 BAJAJFINSV 8799.70 8346.50 8573.10 8819.85 9046.45 9293.20 BPCL 418.70 394.30 406.50 417.60 429.80 440.90 BHARTIARTL 516.75 493.58 505.17 518.98 530.57 544.38 INFRATEL 221.05 212.75 216.90 219.95 224.10 227.15 BRITANNIA 3063.05 3005.02 3034.03 3057.02 3086.03 3109.02 CIPLA 447.65 409.35 428.50 439.15 458.30 468.95 COALINDIA 178.10 171.63 174.87 177.33 180.57 183.03 DRREDDY 3171.35 2980.62 3075.98 3131.37 3226.73 3282.12 EICHERMOT 17254.20 16058.07 16656.13 17468.07 18066.13 18878.07 GAIL 106.05 100.62 103.33 105.12 107.83 109.62 GRASIM 689.50 666.63 678.07 693.43 704.87 720.23 HCLTECH 563.10 552.10 557.60 566.50 572.00 580.90 HDFCBANK 1148.85 1107.08 1127.97 1153.98 1174.87 1200.88 HEROMOTOCO 2046.35 1967.22 2006.78 2040.07 2079.63 2112.92 HINDALCO 160.60 154.93 157.77 159.73 162.57 164.53 HINDUNILVR 2175.85 2137.92 2156.88 2170.97 2189.93 2204.02 HDFC 2206.05 2164.55 2185.30 2200.95 2221.70 2237.35 ICICIBANK 508.35 487.18 497.77 507.63 518.22 528.08 ITC 187.50 180.87 184.18 189.87 193.18 198.87 IOC 106.60 104.03 105.32 107.03 108.32 110.03 INDUSINDBK 1065.95 1013.68 1039.82 1077.13 1103.27 1140.58 INFY 758.75 739.32 749.03 755.27 764.98 771.22 JSWSTEEL 245.60 231.80 238.70 243.75 250.65 255.70 KOTAKBANK 1607.95 1550.72 1579.33 1606.22 1634.83 1661.72 LT 1176.65 1144.32 1160.48 1174.17 1190.33 1204.02 M&M 474.65 450.22 462.43 469.72 481.93 489.22 MARUTI 6384.35 6124.12 6254.23 6339.12 6469.23 6554.12 NTPC 107.95 105.32 106.63 108.82 110.13 112.32 NESTLEIND 16541.50 15785.50 16163.50 16398.00 16776.00 17010.50 ONGC 92.80 88.60 90.70 92.80 94.90 97.00 POWERGRID 197.05 185.08 191.07 194.53 200.52 203.98 RELIANCE 1339.70 1287.90 1313.80 1333.80 1359.70 1379.70 SBIN 285.30 266.57 275.93 284.47 293.83 302.37 SUNPHARMA 405.45 376.35 390.90 401.90 416.45 427.45 TCS 2083.20 1998.10 2040.65 2067.55 2110.10 2137.00 TATAMOTORS 126.20 116.40 121.30 125.45 130.35 134.50 TATASTEEL 40.75 38.42 39.58 40.77 41.93 43.12 TECHM 771.30 737.87 754.58 764.72 781.43 791.57 TITAN 1250.95 1196.28 1223.62 1244.63 1271.97 1292.98 UPL 511.60 478.93 495.27 514.43 530.77 549.93 ULTRACEMCO 4172.80 3996.93 4084.87 4204.93 4292.87 4412.93 VEDL 119.35 113.25 116.30 118.15 121.20 123.05 WIPRO 228.85 219.72 224.28 227.02 231.58 234.32 YESBANK 29.30 26.90 28.10 29.90 31.10 32.90 ZEEL 251.75 239.48 245.62 250.03 256.17 260.58 Note: The levels for TATASTEEL are of TATASTEEL Partly Paid up Share. Disclaimer: Investment in securities market / Mutual Funds are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.)
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Commodity Report 5th March 2020
Daily change & technical levels Scrip Close Change (%) R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 GOLD 43569 0.22 44032 43800 43547 43315 43062 SILVER 46683 0.66 47264 46974 46599 46309 45934 CRUDE 3507 1.45 3635 3571 3513 3449 3391 NG 134.10 0.30 139.00 136.50 134.20 131.70 129.40 ALUMINI 138.40 0.62 139.60 139.00 138.20 137.60 136.80 COPPER 428.55 0.68 431.65 430.10 428.35 426.80 425.05 LEADMINI 144.10 0.31 145.30 144.70 143.90 143.30 142.50 NICKEL 941.30 0.52 950.80 946.00 941.30 936.50 931.80 ZINCMINI 155.30 0.75 157.30 156.30 154.90 153.90 152.50 DIAMOND 3691.40 0.67 3723.30 3707.35 3683.05 3667.10 3642.80 STEELLONG 31040 -1.08 31670 31350 31190 30870 30710 Comex division Bullions Last close Change (%) Gold $1643.00 -0.08 Silver $17.25 0.35 Base metal inventory Scrip Inventory Change Alumni 1050750 -10625 Copper 206575 -4650 Lead 69225 +650 Nickel 235404 +150 Zinc 74725 -300 * Closing rates of 4 Mar & LME stock of 4 Mar BULLION Gold and silver trade sideways after interest rate cuts by major global central banks. Trend volatile. Review On Wednesday, gold and silver prices settled on a mixed note in international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,643.00 per troy ounce, down by 0.08%, while silver May futures settled at $17.25 per troy ounce, up by 0.35%. Due to weakness in the rupee, domestic markets settled on a positive note. Gold settled at Rs43,569 per 10 grams with a gain of 0.22%, and silver settled at Rs46,683 per kilogram with a gain of 0.66%. Gold and silver traded sideways on Wednesday after major global central banks cut interest rates. Investor risk appetite increased and global equity markets gained on Wednesday. The bullion rally also paused after former Vice President Joe Biden notched big primary wins over Sen. Bernie Sanders and upbeat US ADP non-farm employment data. On Wednesday, ADP said that 183,000 jobs were created in February, which beat expectations. According to consensus forecasts, economists were expecting to see job gains of around 170,000. We expect both precious metals to remain volatile due to excessive volatility in global equity and currency markets. Gold has support at $1,632–1,622 and resistance is at $1,654–1,666. Silver has support at $17.04–16.88, while resistance is at $17.44–17.70. Today, gold has support at Rs43,315–43,062, while resistance is at Rs43,800–44,032. Silver has support at Rs46,309–45,934, while resistance is at Rs46,974–47,264. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. ENERGY Crude oil rally paused after Russia and Saudi Arabia wants status quo on production cuts. Trend volatile. Review On Wednesday, crude oil settled on a weaker note in international markets as WTI crude settled at $46.78 per barrel, while Brent settled at $51.59 per barrel. Due to weakness in the rupee, domestic markets settled on a positive note at Rs3,507 per barrel with a gain of 1.45%. Crude oil prices slipped in the international markets after OPEC allies Russia and Saudi Arabia suggested maintaining a status quo on production cuts in the second quarter of 2020, as per media reports. Crude prices began the day up on reports that oil producers gathered in Vienna under the OPEC+ alliance would agree to a total production cut of at least 1 million barrels per day from this quarter onward to mitigate some of the demand destruction to energy from the novel coronavirus outbreak. US weekly stockpiles rose by 7,85,000 barrels for the week ended on 28 February against analyst expectations of 2.64 million barrels, as per EIA reports. We expect crude oil prices remain volatile today and to trade in the range of $45.50-48 per barrel. Crude oil has support at $46.00–45.50 and resistance is at $47.40–48.00. Crude oil has support at Rs3,449–3,391, while resistance is at Rs3,571–3,635; traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. BASE METALS Base metals gain after upbeat US ADP non-farm employment data. Trend volatile. Review On Wednesday, base metals settled on a positive note in international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,694.00 per metric ton with a gain of 0.63% from the previous close. Base metals gained on Wednesday after upbeat US ADP non-farm employment data and interest rate cuts by major global central banks. Bank of Canada also slashed key interest rates by 50 basis points. On Wednesday, ADP said that 183,000 jobs were created in February, which beat expectations. According to consensus forecasts, economists were expecting to see job gains of around 170,000. After upbeat US data and interest rate cuts, global equity markets rallied and supported base metal prices. We expect base metals remain volatile due to excessive volatility in global equity and currency markets. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs427–425, while resistance is at Rs430–432. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs922–960, zinc should trade in the range of Rs152–158, lead should trade in the range of Rs142–146, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs136–141. Copper has support at Rs427 and Rs425, while resistance is at Rs430 and Rs432; traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. AGRI COMMODITIES Agricultural commodities extend gain after rally in global agricultural commodities. Trend volatile. Review On Wednesday, agricultural commodities extended gains in domestic markets after a rally in global agricultural commodities. Oil seeds and edible oil witnessed a solid recovery in the last two trading sessions due to short covering and value buying at lower levels. Bursa Malaysia KLC also settled positive. Soybean March futures settled on a positive note in the domestic markets at Rs3,746 per quintal with a gain of 0.46%. CBOT settled at 907 cents. Other agricultural commodities also settled on a positive note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a gain of 0.40%, while castor seed futures settled with a gain of 0.64%. RM seed April futures closed with a gain of 0.48%. Guar seed settled with a gain of 1.44%, and guar gum also settled with a gain of 2.76%. The spices pack settled on a mixed note; coriander settled positive, while jeera and turmeric settled negative. Cotton seed oilcake March futures closed positive with a gain of 3.95%. Refined soy oil March futures closed positive at Rs797.00. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs784–812. Soybean has support at Rs3,710–3,680, while resistance is at Rs3,800–3,830. Refined soy oil has support at Rs788–784, while resistance is at Rs808–812. Traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. 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