The USDINR rebounded from the day’s low of 72.2550 and surged to a six-month high 73.00 yesterday. The pair gained sharply following reports of a missile launch by North Korea amid some oil-related dollar buying. South Korean military officials said North Korea launched two unidentified projectiles off its east coast on Monday, which could be the country's first weapons test since November 28. Earlier in the morning, the pair opened lower as the greenback slumped against major counterparts on hardening expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its policy review this month to protect the economy from the rapid spread of the coronavirus.
Technically, our bullish outlook since 24 February 2020 has proven accurate, as after breaking the pennant resistance of 72.05 the USDINR pair inched higher towards 73.0125. The formation of a long bullish candlestick on the EOD chart is still indicating a bullish momentum in the near future. However, the pair will have to break the immediate resistance of 73.05, as a break above 73.05 will lead to a bullish momentum towards next the resistance of 73.25–73.55. Alternatively, any temporary correction towards 72.55–72.45 could attract buying in the near future.
Trend: Bullish
The GBPINR pair remained negative and settled at 93.11 as compared to the previous day’s close of 93.3475. The pair retreated from the day’s high of 93.3425, and dropped to the day’s low 92.46, as the pound plunged against the US dollar on concerns that Bank of England Governor Mark Carney may go for an unscheduled reduction in borrowing cost after the Bank of England (BoE) announced that it will 'take all necessary steps to protect the UK's economic stability’. Also, weaker than expected manufacturing sector data further weighed on the pound.
Technically, on the EOD chart, the GBPINR pair was unable to cross its massive resistance of 93.65, which coincided with a symmetrical triangle resistance and formed a high-wave candlestick, both of which are still indicating a bearish momentum in the near future and any temporary recovery towards 93.35–93.45 could attract selling activities in the near future. Alternatively, only a break above 93.65 will cause bullish momentum and the GBPINR may test immediate resistance of 93.85–94.20.
Trend: Bearish
Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today
< Italy’s February manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7 as compared to the previous reading of 48.9.
< France’s February final manufacturing PMI stood at 49.8 as compared to the prelim reading of 49.7.
< Germany’s February final manufacturing PMI came in at 48.0 as compared to the 47.8 prelim reading.
< UK February final manufacturing PMI stood at 51.7 as compared to the prelim reading of 51.9.
< UK January mortgage approvals were at 70.9k as compared to 67.2k in the previous month. Net consumer credit stood at £1.2 billion vs £1.0 billion expected; the previous figure was £1.2 billion.
< Brazil posted a trade surplus of $3.1 billion in February, official data showed on Monday. Overall exports rose 15.5% in February from a year ago, and imports rose 16.7%, the figures showed. Exports to China, Hong Kong and Macau jumped 20.9%.
< US manufacturing PMI slid to 50.7 last month from 51.9 in January.
< US construction spending surged 1.8% to a record high of $1.369 trillion.
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar.
Technical chart source: TickerNews
Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com
*DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 04-MAR-2020
The USDINR pair extended its recent gain for the third consecutive day and settled with a gain of 0.90%, the highest intraday gain after 8 May 2019. The pair closed above its November 2018 high of 73.5975 on fading hopes of any co-ordinated stimulus being announced by the G7 countries amid rising coronavirus cases in India. Further, Brent crude recovered more than 3% yesterday, which also supported strong buying activities by oil importers. Also, some amount of panic selling after reports of the North Korean missile launch further aided the fall in stocks and the rupee. On the other hand, the US dollar plunged towards the 12 January 2020 low, after the Federal Reserve announced an emergency cut of 50 basis points in its key interest rate.
Technically, after breaching the resistance of 73.05, the USDINR pair tested its multi-week high 73.5975 (hitting both predicted levels of 73.25–73.55). The formation of a three-white-soldiers pattern on the EOD chart is still indicating a bullish momentum in the near future, and any temporary correction towards 73.25–73.10 could attract buying in the near future, and next upside target is expected to be at 73.70 levels. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 72.80 and 72.55.
Trend: Bullish
The GBPINR pair has stalled its recent fall and rebounded more than 0.95%, settling at 94.01 as compared to the previous day’s close of 93.11. The pair inched higher to the day’s high of 94.10, after strong economic data from the UK uplifted market sentiments. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the virus posed evolving risks to economic activity and the Fed will act appropriately to support the economy. His remarks further strengthened the already high expectations that the central bank would cut rates at this month's meeting.
Technically, on the EOD chart, the GBPINR pair crossed its massive resistance of 93.65, which has been held since 17 February 2020 and also coincided with a symmetrical triangle resistance, both of which are indicating the probability of a bullish momentum. Today, a break above 94.15 will extend the recent gains and the upside target is expected at 94.45-94.65. Alternatively, a failure to break this level will cause a correction towards immediate support of 93.65–93.45.
Trend: Volatile
Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar.
Technical chart source: TickerNews
Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com
*DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
)
Currency Updates 3rd March 2020
The USDINR rebounded from the day’s low of 72.2550 and surged to a six-month high 73.00 yesterday. The pair gained sharply following reports of a missile launch by North Korea amid some oil-related dollar buying. South Korean military officials said North Korea launched two unidentified projectiles off its east coast on Monday, which could be the country's first weapons test since November 28. Earlier in the morning, the pair opened lower as the greenback slumped against major counterparts on hardening expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its policy review this month to protect the economy from the rapid spread of the coronavirus.
Technically, our bullish outlook since 24 February 2020 has proven accurate, as after breaking the pennant resistance of 72.05 the USDINR pair inched higher towards 73.0125. The formation of a long bullish candlestick on the EOD chart is still indicating a bullish momentum in the near future. However, the pair will have to break the immediate resistance of 73.05, as a break above 73.05 will lead to a bullish momentum towards next the resistance of 73.25–73.55. Alternatively, any temporary correction towards 72.55–72.45 could attract buying in the near future.
Trend: Bullish
The GBPINR pair remained negative and settled at 93.11 as compared to the previous day’s close of 93.3475. The pair retreated from the day’s high of 93.3425, and dropped to the day’s low 92.46, as the pound plunged against the US dollar on concerns that Bank of England Governor Mark Carney may go for an unscheduled reduction in borrowing cost after the Bank of England (BoE) announced that it will 'take all necessary steps to protect the UK's economic stability’. Also, weaker than expected manufacturing sector data further weighed on the pound.
Technically, on the EOD chart, the GBPINR pair was unable to cross its massive resistance of 93.65, which coincided with a symmetrical triangle resistance and formed a high-wave candlestick, both of which are still indicating a bearish momentum in the near future and any temporary recovery towards 93.35–93.45 could attract selling activities in the near future. Alternatively, only a break above 93.65 will cause bullish momentum and the GBPINR may test immediate resistance of 93.85–94.20.
Trend: Bearish
Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today
< Italy’s February manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7 as compared to the previous reading of 48.9.
< France’s February final manufacturing PMI stood at 49.8 as compared to the prelim reading of 49.7.
< Germany’s February final manufacturing PMI came in at 48.0 as compared to the 47.8 prelim reading.
< UK February final manufacturing PMI stood at 51.7 as compared to the prelim reading of 51.9.
< UK January mortgage approvals were at 70.9k as compared to 67.2k in the previous month. Net consumer credit stood at £1.2 billion vs £1.0 billion expected; the previous figure was £1.2 billion.
< Brazil posted a trade surplus of $3.1 billion in February, official data showed on Monday. Overall exports rose 15.5% in February from a year ago, and imports rose 16.7%, the figures showed. Exports to China, Hong Kong and Macau jumped 20.9%.
< US manufacturing PMI slid to 50.7 last month from 51.9 in January.
< US construction spending surged 1.8% to a record high of $1.369 trillion.
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar.
Technical chart source: TickerNews
Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com
*DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
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Share Market Today 4th March 2020
Market Recap Market Outlook Bank Nifty Outlook Note on Participants Activity Derivative Outlook Exhibit 6: LONG BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % PVR 1721.6 3.39% 1420400 27.41% NAUKRI 2799.85 4.16% 314400 18.11% HDFCLIFE 565.4 1.88% 1469700 16.73% JUBLFOOD 1688.95 1.81% 2823500 14.03% DIVISLAB 2186 3.36% 2172800 13.47% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Exhibit 7: SHORT BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % EQUITAS 105.4 -1.08% 17826200 5.76% ITC 194.7 -0.69% 149320800 3.00% CESC 634.55 -0.71% 1746400 1.96% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Exhibit 8: LONG UNWINDING SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % CONCOR 491.15 -0.79% 4784343 -5.50% BATAINDIA 1622.4 -0.41% 2478850 -2.91% BERGEPAINT 544.4 -1.59% 6331600 -1.67% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Exhibit 9: SHORT COVERING SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % TATACHEM 722.55 3.10% 402300 -63.48% EICHERMOT 17788.9 4.93% 216870 -14.67% NTPC 105.3 3.54% 67401600 -11.09% UJJIVAN 340.8 3.87% 5319300 -9.28% MFSL 591.95 2.92% 2380300 -6.87% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Corporate Action TATA Chemicals Limited Tata Chemicals will trade ex-Consumer Product Business from today (4th March 2020). Nifty 50 Pivots SYMBOL Close S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 347.30 339.07 343.18 346.12 350.23 353.17 ASIANPAINT 1800.55 1744.18 1772.37 1795.18 1823.37 1846.18 AXISBANK 687.15 665.18 676.17 685.98 696.97 706.78 BAJAJ-AUTO 2692.25 2614.75 2653.50 2691.75 2730.50 2768.75 BAJFINANCE 4454.10 4261.47 4357.78 4416.37 4512.68 4571.27 BAJAJFINSV 8963.65 8483.45 8723.55 8920.10 9160.20 9356.75 BPCL 425.00 408.23 416.62 421.88 430.27 435.53 BHARTIARTL 520.80 503.57 512.18 522.77 531.38 541.97 INFRATEL 219.35 207.18 213.27 219.13 225.22 231.08 BRITANNIA 3026.50 2931.83 2979.17 3012.33 3059.67 3092.83 CIPLA 425.30 391.63 408.47 418.83 435.67 446.03 COALINDIA 178.20 167.50 172.85 176.25 181.60 185.00 DRREDDY 3043.70 2870.90 2957.30 3017.65 3104.05 3164.40 EICHERMOT 17888.45 17135.48 17511.97 17776.48 18152.97 18417.48 GAIL 103.20 97.87 100.53 102.17 104.83 106.47 GRASIM 700.05 658.28 679.17 691.88 712.77 725.48 HCLTECH 565.05 549.18 557.12 562.93 570.87 576.68 HDFCBANK 1181.80 1161.03 1171.42 1178.38 1188.77 1195.73 HEROMOTOCO 2054.85 1943.72 1999.28 2031.57 2087.13 2119.42 HINDALCO 159.30 147.20 153.25 156.85 162.90 166.50 HINDUNILVR 2166.65 2118.08 2142.37 2165.98 2190.27 2213.88 HDFC 2191.40 2143.60 2167.50 2197.20 2221.10 2250.80 ICICIBANK 514.75 503.25 509.00 514.25 520.00 525.25 ITC 193.85 189.72 191.78 194.62 196.68 199.52 IOC 106.65 102.75 104.70 106.25 108.20 109.75 INDUSINDBK 1108.05 1054.72 1081.38 1099.67 1126.33 1144.62 INFY 747.00 731.33 739.17 749.08 756.92 766.83 JSWSTEEL 246.45 234.28 240.37 244.73 250.82 255.18 KOTAKBANK 1626.30 1567.20 1596.75 1616.55 1646.10 1665.90 LT 1181.30 1151.97 1166.63 1176.72 1191.38 1201.47 M&M 466.25 448.42 457.33 464.17 473.08 479.92 MARUTI 6386.05 6221.25 6303.65 6362.90 6445.30 6504.55 NTPC 108.90 102.07 105.48 107.72 111.13 113.37 NESTLEIND 16359.40 15960.80 16160.10 16329.55 16528.85 16698.30 ONGC 93.35 87.98 90.67 92.33 95.02 96.68 POWERGRID 191.70 176.83 184.27 189.48 196.92 202.13 RELIANCE 1342.85 1307.68 1325.27 1339.58 1357.17 1371.48 SBIN 289.85 280.75 285.30 289.85 294.40 298.95 SUNPHARMA 393.55 364.58 379.07 387.73 402.22 410.88 TCS 2036.20 1988.07 2012.13 2036.07 2060.13 2084.07 TATAMOTORS 130.35 122.85 126.60 129.00 132.75 135.15 TATASTEEL 41.85 39.28 40.57 41.28 42.57 43.28 TECHM 752.30 735.13 743.72 750.68 759.27 766.23 TITAN 1247.00 1201.00 1224.00 1248.00 1271.00 1295.00 UPL 521.55 506.15 513.85 520.25 527.95 534.35 ULTRACEMCO 4299.90 4090.70 4195.30 4262.15 4366.75 4433.60 VEDL 119.55 110.72 115.13 118.07 122.48 125.42 WIPRO 223.70 218.17 220.93 223.37 226.13 228.57 YESBANK 31.20 28.87 30.03 31.67 32.83 34.47 ZEEL 251.10 224.87 237.98 246.97 260.08 269.07 Note: The levels for TATASTEEL are of TATASTEEL Partly Paid up Share. Disclaimer: Investment in securities market / Mutual Funds are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing. )
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Currency Updates 4th March 2020
The USDINR pair extended its recent gain for the third consecutive day and settled with a gain of 0.90%, the highest intraday gain after 8 May 2019. The pair closed above its November 2018 high of 73.5975 on fading hopes of any co-ordinated stimulus being announced by the G7 countries amid rising coronavirus cases in India. Further, Brent crude recovered more than 3% yesterday, which also supported strong buying activities by oil importers. Also, some amount of panic selling after reports of the North Korean missile launch further aided the fall in stocks and the rupee. On the other hand, the US dollar plunged towards the 12 January 2020 low, after the Federal Reserve announced an emergency cut of 50 basis points in its key interest rate. Technically, after breaching the resistance of 73.05, the USDINR pair tested its multi-week high 73.5975 (hitting both predicted levels of 73.25–73.55). The formation of a three-white-soldiers pattern on the EOD chart is still indicating a bullish momentum in the near future, and any temporary correction towards 73.25–73.10 could attract buying in the near future, and next upside target is expected to be at 73.70 levels. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 72.80 and 72.55. Trend: Bullish The GBPINR pair has stalled its recent fall and rebounded more than 0.95%, settling at 94.01 as compared to the previous day’s close of 93.11. The pair inched higher to the day’s high of 94.10, after strong economic data from the UK uplifted market sentiments. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the virus posed evolving risks to economic activity and the Fed will act appropriately to support the economy. His remarks further strengthened the already high expectations that the central bank would cut rates at this month's meeting. Technically, on the EOD chart, the GBPINR pair crossed its massive resistance of 93.65, which has been held since 17 February 2020 and also coincided with a symmetrical triangle resistance, both of which are indicating the probability of a bullish momentum. Today, a break above 94.15 will extend the recent gains and the upside target is expected at 94.45-94.65. Alternatively, a failure to break this level will cause a correction towards immediate support of 93.65–93.45. Trend: Volatile Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar. Technical chart source: TickerNews Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com *DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. )