Currency Updates 20th February 2020

Currency pivot levels Currency pair Close Change (%) Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Pivot Support 1 Support2 USDINR 71.555 0.29 71.6292 71.7033 71.5158 71.4417 71.3283 EURINR 77.5725 0.16 77.6450 77.7175 77.5275 77.4550 77.3375 GBPINR 93.2825 0.37 93.4875 93.6925 93.1350 92.9300 92.5775 JPYINR 65.245 0.4 65.3258 65.4067 65.2142 65.1333 65.0217   Cross-currency update Currency pair Close Change (%) Dollar index 99.60 0.13 EURUSD 1.0805 0.13 GBPUSD 1.2921 -0.58 USDJPY 111.35 1.37   USDINR 26 February 2020 expiry option update Options LTP Change (%) OI OI (Prev.) CE  72.50 0.010 33.33 93745 96200 CE 72.00 0.0425 54.55 172524 190859 CE 71.50 0.185 68.18 213329 218688 CE 71.00 0.565 49.67 78594 80944 CE 70.50 1.0725 27.68 26651 26579           PE 72.00 0.975 -11.36 8696 9522 PE 71.50 0.485 -30.47 49918 63227 PE 71.00 0.1325 -49.04 155612 132024 PE 70.50 0.015 -62.5 240103 226369 PE 70.00 0.005 -33.33 76055 74472 Note: Previous day’s movement in option activities   RBI reference rate (19 February 2020) 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN 71.4013 92.8193 77.3628 65.0400 The USDINR pair witnessed a 0.29% gain on Tuesday and settled at 71.5550 as compared to Monday’s close of 71.3450. The pair inched higher to the day’s high of 71.59, on likely overseas outflows from local stocks amid a strong dollar. Local stocks tanked for the fourth-successive session due to disappointing quarterly earnings and threats of disruptions in business due to the coronavirus epidemic in China. Technically, since 7 February 2020, the USDINR pair is consolidating in the range of 71.25–71.55 and forming a pennant pattern on the EOD chart. A break above 71.65 will lead a bullish momentum towards next the resistance of 71.85–72.02, Alternatively, the pair is expected to trade in the above range, unless there is a break on either side. On the downside, a break below 71.20 will lead to selling pressure and the pair may test the next support of 71.00–70.80. Trend: Neutral The EURINR pair had an indecisive trade on Tuesday and after trading in the range of 77.45–77.60 settled at 77.5725 as compared to Monday’s close of 77.4375. On the other hand, the euro fell towards a three-year low against the dollar ahead of a highly watched German survey on Tuesday, which is expected to show a sharp slump in investor confidence and fuel growing pessimism about the outlook for Europe's largest economy.  Technically, the intraday price action resulted in the formation of a doji candlestick, which is indicating range-bound momentum in the near future. On the downside, 77.20 will act as a crucial support on a closing basis. A break below it will lead the pair to further fall, and the next downside target is expected to be at 76.90–76.70. Alternatively, momentum recovery could be expected toward the immediate resistance of 77.85–78.20 levels. Trend: Neutral Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today Major economic data & events scheduled for the day Time Currency Economic indicators Forecast Previous Possible impact 12:30pm EUR German GfK Consumer Climate 9.9 9.9 Neutral   EUR German PPI m/m 0.10% 0.10% Neutral 1:15pm EUR French Final CPI m/m -0.40% -0.40% Neutral 20th-23rd CNY New Loans 3100B 1140B Positive 20th-23rd CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.60% 8.70% Negative 3:00pm GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.70% -0.60% Positive Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction - 0.35|1.6 - 4:30pm GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -19 -22 Neutral 6:00pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts - - - 7:00pm CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - 46.2K -   CAD NHPI m/m 0.20% 0.20% Neutral   USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10.1 17 Negative   USD Unemployment Claims 210K 205K Negative 8:30pm EUR Consumer Confidence -8 -8 Neutral   USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.40% -0.30% Positive 9:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage -143B -115B Neutral 9:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.3M 7M Positive Impact: High | Low | Medium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar. Technical chart source: TickerNews Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com *DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. )

Daily change & technical levels Scrip Close Change (%) R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 GOLD 41586 0.40 41787 41687 41518 41418 41249 SILVER 47570 0.65 47974 47772 47508 47306 47042 CRUDE 3850 3.00 3927 3888 3817 3778 3707 NG 140.50 -0.71 142.50 141.50 140.50 139.50 138.50 ALUMINI 138.45 0.29 139.25 138.85 138.25 137.85 137.25 COPPER 431.30 -0.07 436.70 434.00 431.25 428.55 425.80 LEADMINI 145.75 -0.58 147.90 146.80 146.00 144.90 144.10 NICKEL 944.00 0.62 957.50 950.80 943.40 936.70 929.30 ZINCMINI 166.65 -0.60 169.40 168.00 167.10 165.70 164.80 DIAMOND 3579.50 -0.05 3586.60 3583.00 3577.50 3573.90 3568.40 STEELLONG 31740 0.13 31930 31830 31710 31610 31490 Comex division Bullions Last close Change (%) Gold $1611.80   0.74 Silver $18.31   0.88 Base metal inventory Scrip Inventory Change Alumni 1177425 -14950 Copper 166475 +5075 Lead 66725 +0 Nickel 218214 +2412 Zinc 74700 -25 * Closing rates of 19 Feb & LME stock of 18 Feb   BULLION Gold and silver extend gains despite gains in dollar index. Trend firm. Review On Wednesday, gold and silver prices settled on a positive note in international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,611.80 per troy ounce, up by 0.74%, while silver March futures settled at $18.31 per troy ounce, up by 0.088%. Domestic markets were also settled on a positive note. Gold settled at Rs41,586 per 10 grams with a gain of 0.40%, and silver settled at Rs47,570 per kilogram with a gain of 0.65%. Gold and silver extended gains on Wednesday despite gains in the dollar index. Gold reached its lifetime high in domestic markets and silver also reached a five-week high. Despite upbeat US PPI, core PPI and housing starts data, both precious metals gained. Slower global growth and fear of coronavirus supported safe-haven buying in both precious metals. We expect prices of both precious metals to remain firm and the buy-on-dip strategy still works. Gold has support at $1,600–1,592 and resistance at $1,622–1,630. Silver has support at $18.18–18.00, while resistance is at $18.44–18.55. Today, gold has support at Rs41,418–41,249, while resistance is at Rs41,687–41,787. Silver has support at Rs47,306–47,042, while resistance is at Rs47,772–47,974. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. ENERGY Crude oil extends gain and reaches to two weeks high amid supply risk from Venezuela. Trend volatile. Review On Wednesday, crude oil settled on a positive note in international markets as WTI crude settled at $53.49 per barrel, while Brent settled at $59.31 per barrel. Domestic markets also settled on a positive note at Rs3,850 per barrel with a gain of 3.00%. Crude oil extended gain on Wednesday and reached a two-week high amid supply risk from Venezuela. The US sanctioned a unit of Russia’s Rosneft PJSC for maintaining ties with Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and the state-run oil company, putting Venezuela’s ability to export crude in jeopardy. Meanwhile, ceasefire talks were suspended in Libya after the capital’s port was shelled by forces loyal to military commander Khalifa Haftar, who has forced a blockade of the country’s exports. Fresh supply concerns from Venezuela and a fresh stimulus by the Chinese central bank to boost economic growth supported crude oil prices. We expect crude oil to hold the key support of $52 per barrel and to test $55 per barrel. Crude oil has support at $52.80–52.40 and resistance is at $54.50–55.00. Crude oil has support at Rs3,778–3,707, while resistance is at Rs3,888–3,927; traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. BASE METALS Base metals trade sideways due to record gains in dollar index. Trend volatile. Review On Wednesday, base metals settled on a mixed note in international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,782.25 per metric ton with a gain of 0.28% from the previous close. Base metal prices witnessed a mixed trend on Wednesday despite upbeat US PPI, core PPI and housing starts data. Strength in the dollar index and fear of coronavirus limited gains in the dollar index. The dollar index reached fresh highs and crossed the 99.40 mark, putting pressure on base metals prices. We expect base metals to trade sideways. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs429–426, while resistance is at Rs434–437. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs933–955, zinc should trade in the range of Rs164–169, lead should trade in the range of Rs144–148, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs137–140. Copper has support at Rs429 and Rs426, while resistance is at Rs434 and Rs437; traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. AGRI COMMODITIES Agricultural commodities extend fall on hope of record rabi crop production. Trend volatile. Review On Wednesday, agricultural commodities extended the fall on the hope of a record rabi crop production. As per the government’s second advance estimate, a bumper production of oil seeds, grains and pulses is expected in the rabi season. Bursa Malaysia KLC also settled negative. Soybean March futures settled on a weaker note in the domestic markets at Rs3,862 per quintal with a loss of 0.46%. CBOT settled at 896 cents. Other agricultural commodities settled on a mixed note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a loss of 0.86%, while castor seed futures settled with a loss of 0.96%. RM seed April futures closed with a gain of 0.15%. Guar seed settled with a gain of 0.37%, and guar gum also settled with a gain of 0.55%. The spices pack settled on a positive note; coriander, jeera and turmeric settled positive. Cotton seed oilcake March futures closed negative with a loss of 0.53%. Refined soy oil March futures closed negative at Rs803. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs792–812. Soybean has support at Rs3,830–3,830, while resistance is at Rs3,900–3,920. Refined soy oil has support at Rs796–792, while resistance is at Rs808–812. Traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)