Note: Previous day’s movement in option activities
RBI reference rate (13 February 2020)
1 USD
1 GBP
1 EURO
100 YEN
71.4699
92.5626
77.7049
65.0900
The USDINR pair struggled for direction in yesterday’s trading again, and after swinging in the range of 71.40–71.50, settled almost flat at 71.4050. The pair saw a mild recovery from the day’s low of 71.3825, as the risk appetite sagged tracking reports of a huge jump in the number of new cases of coronavirus infections in China amid a strengthening greenback. The Chinese yuan slipped by 0.14% at 6.9813 against the dollar, amid a flight for safe-haven assets.
Technically, since the beginning of the week, the USDINR pair has been stuck in the range of 71.25–71.55 and forming an indecisive candlestick on the EOD chart, which is indicating for a range-bound to volatile momentum in the near future, and the pair is expected to trade in the above range unless there is a break on either side. However, uncertainty in global markets is indicating a probability for a bounce back from support levels of 71.30–71.25. On the downside, a break below 70.80 will lead to selling pressure and the pair may test the next support of 70.65–70.55.
Trend: Neutral
The EURINR pair witnessed a 0.45% fall yesterday and settled at 77.7275 as compared to the previous day’s close of 78.0750. The pair dropped to the three month low of 77.70, on expectations of weak gross domestic product data from Germany amid dismal Eurozone industrial production data. Moreover, a fresh surge in coronavirus cases in China added to concerns about the impact of the outbreak on an already weak Eurozone economy, which also weighed on sentiment.
Technically, since 3 February 2020, the EURINR pair plunged more than 1.80% and is trading below its crucial support of 77.75. The formation a long bearish candlestick on the EOD chart is still indicating a bearish momentum in the near future. Today, a break below 77.50 will lead to a further fall in the pair and the next downside target is expected to be at 76.90–76.70. Alternatively, any rise towards 77.90-78.00 could attract near-term selling pressure and the stop-loss will be 78.50.
Trend: Bearish
The EURINR pair witnessed a 0.45% fall yesterday and settled at 77.7275 as compared to the previous day’s close of 78.0750. The pair dropped to the three month low of 77.70, on expectations of weak gross domestic product data from Germany amid dismal Eurozone industrial production data. Moreover, a fresh surge in coronavirus cases in China added to concerns about the impact of the outbreak on an already weak Eurozone economy, which also weighed on sentiment.
Technically, since 3 February 2020, the EURINR pair plunged more than 1.80% and is trading below its crucial support of 77.75. The formation a long bearish candlestick on the EOD chart is still indicating a bearish momentum in the near future. Today, a break below 77.50 will lead to a further fall in the pair and the next downside target is expected to be at 76.90–76.70. Alternatively, any rise towards 77.90-78.00 could attract near-term selling pressure and the stop-loss will be 78.50.
Trend: Bearish
Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today
< French unemployment rate fell to 8.1% in the final three months of last year from 8.5% in the third quarter, which was revised down from an initial reading of 8.6%, the INSEE statistics agency said.
< UK's manufacturing production improved in December, with a gain of 0.3% compared to a 1.7% decline in November. Industrial production rose 0.1% in December from a 1.1% fall in November.
< UK’s Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) housing survey recorded a sharp improvement in the UK housing sector for January. The headline figure for national house prices net balance recorded a figure of +17% for January from a revised reading of zero for December, beating market consensus of +3%.
< US initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 205,000 for the week ended Feb. 8, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
< Argentina's central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate to 44% from 48% on Thursday, it said in a statement.
Major economic data & events scheduled for the day
Time
Currency
Economic indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible impact
13th-18th
CNY
Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
-
6.00%
-
10:00am
JPY
Tertiary Industry Activity m/m
0.10%
1.30%
Negative
12:30pm
EUR
German Prelim GDP q/q
0.10%
0.10%
Neutral
EUR
German WPI m/m
0.30%
0.00%
Positive
1:00pm
CHF
PPI m/m
0.20%
0.10%
Positive
2:30pm
EUR
Italian Trade Balance
5.23B
4.87B
Positive
14th-15th
CNY
New Loans
3100B
1140B
Positive
14th-15th
CNY
M2 Money Supply y/y
8.60%
8.70%
Negative
3:30pm
EUR
Flash Employment Change q/q
0.10%
0.10%
Neutral
EUR
Flash GDP q/q
0.10%
0.10%
Neutral
EUR
Trade Balance
19.1B
19.2B
Neutral
7:00pm
USD
Core Retail Sales m/m
0.30%
0.70%
Negative
USD
Retail Sales m/m
0.30%
0.30%
Neutral
USD
Import Prices m/m
-0.20%
0.30%
Negative
7:45pm
USD
Capacity Utilization Rate
76.90%
77.00%
Negative
USD
Industrial Production m/m
-0.20%
-0.30%
Negative
8:30pm
USD
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
99.5
99.8
Negative
USD
Business Inventories m/m
0.10%
-0.20%
Positive
USD
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
-
2.50%
-
10:15pm
USD
FOMC Member Mester Speaks
-
-
-
Impact: High | Low | Medium
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar.
Technical chart source: TickerNews
Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com
*DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
Currency Updates 14th February 2020
Currency pivot levels
Currency pair
Close
Change (%)
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
Pivot
Support 1
Support 2
USDINR
71.39
-0.06
71.5100
71.6300
71.4425
71.3225
71.2550
EURINR
77.67
-0.51
77.8483
78.0192
77.7517
77.5808
77.4842
GBPINR
92.71
-0.07
92.8617
93.0058
92.7058
92.5617
92.4058
JPYINR
65.16
0.22
65.2483
65.3342
65.1417
65.0558
64.9492
Cross-currency update
Currency pair
Close
Change (%)
Dollar index
99.11
0.11
EURUSD
1.0839
-0.30
GBPUSD
1.304
0.63
USDJPY
109.82
-0.24
USDINR 26 February 2020 expiry option update
Options
LTP
Change (%)
OI
OI (Prev.)
CE 72.50
0.0125
-16.67
106783
112176
CE 72.00
0.045
-10
192161
187005
CE 71.50
0.1575
-14.86
219206
206468
CE 71.00
0.4375
-9.79
86997
91139
CE 70.50
0.91
-2.41
26602
26451
PE 72.00
1.1025
2.56
9771
10439
PE 71.50
0.66
6.88
69486
69640
PE 71.00
0.2625
5.00
133813
111967
PE 70.50
0.0525
-12.5
219030
210956
PE 70.00
0.0075
-40
73189
71219
RBI reference rate (13 February 2020)
1 USD
1 GBP
1 EURO
100 YEN
71.4699
92.5626
77.7049
65.0900
The USDINR pair struggled for direction in yesterday’s trading again, and after swinging in the range of 71.40–71.50, settled almost flat at 71.4050. The pair saw a mild recovery from the day’s low of 71.3825, as the risk appetite sagged tracking reports of a huge jump in the number of new cases of coronavirus infections in China amid a strengthening greenback. The Chinese yuan slipped by 0.14% at 6.9813 against the dollar, amid a flight for safe-haven assets.
Technically, since the beginning of the week, the USDINR pair has been stuck in the range of 71.25–71.55 and forming an indecisive candlestick on the EOD chart, which is indicating for a range-bound to volatile momentum in the near future, and the pair is expected to trade in the above range unless there is a break on either side. However, uncertainty in global markets is indicating a probability for a bounce back from support levels of 71.30–71.25. On the downside, a break below 70.80 will lead to selling pressure and the pair may test the next support of 70.65–70.55.
Trend: Neutral
The EURINR pair witnessed a 0.45% fall yesterday and settled at 77.7275 as compared to the previous day’s close of 78.0750. The pair dropped to the three month low of 77.70, on expectations of weak gross domestic product data from Germany amid dismal Eurozone industrial production data. Moreover, a fresh surge in coronavirus cases in China added to concerns about the impact of the outbreak on an already weak Eurozone economy, which also weighed on sentiment.
Technically, since 3 February 2020, the EURINR pair plunged more than 1.80% and is trading below its crucial support of 77.75. The formation a long bearish candlestick on the EOD chart is still indicating a bearish momentum in the near future. Today, a break below 77.50 will lead to a further fall in the pair and the next downside target is expected to be at 76.90–76.70. Alternatively, any rise towards 77.90-78.00 could attract near-term selling pressure and the stop-loss will be 78.50.
Trend: Bearish
The EURINR pair witnessed a 0.45% fall yesterday and settled at 77.7275 as compared to the previous day’s close of 78.0750. The pair dropped to the three month low of 77.70, on expectations of weak gross domestic product data from Germany amid dismal Eurozone industrial production data. Moreover, a fresh surge in coronavirus cases in China added to concerns about the impact of the outbreak on an already weak Eurozone economy, which also weighed on sentiment.
Technically, since 3 February 2020, the EURINR pair plunged more than 1.80% and is trading below its crucial support of 77.75. The formation a long bearish candlestick on the EOD chart is still indicating a bearish momentum in the near future. Today, a break below 77.50 will lead to a further fall in the pair and the next downside target is expected to be at 76.90–76.70. Alternatively, any rise towards 77.90-78.00 could attract near-term selling pressure and the stop-loss will be 78.50.
Trend: Bearish
Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today
< French unemployment rate fell to 8.1% in the final three months of last year from 8.5% in the third quarter, which was revised down from an initial reading of 8.6%, the INSEE statistics agency said.
< UK's manufacturing production improved in December, with a gain of 0.3% compared to a 1.7% decline in November. Industrial production rose 0.1% in December from a 1.1% fall in November.
< UK’s Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) housing survey recorded a sharp improvement in the UK housing sector for January. The headline figure for national house prices net balance recorded a figure of +17% for January from a revised reading of zero for December, beating market consensus of +3%.
< US initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 205,000 for the week ended Feb. 8, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
< Argentina's central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate to 44% from 48% on Thursday, it said in a statement.
Major economic data & events scheduled for the day
Time
Currency
Economic indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible impact
13th-18th
CNY
Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
-
6.00%
-
10:00am
JPY
Tertiary Industry Activity m/m
0.10%
1.30%
Negative
12:30pm
EUR
German Prelim GDP q/q
0.10%
0.10%
Neutral
EUR
German WPI m/m
0.30%
0.00%
Positive
1:00pm
CHF
PPI m/m
0.20%
0.10%
Positive
2:30pm
EUR
Italian Trade Balance
5.23B
4.87B
Positive
14th-15th
CNY
New Loans
3100B
1140B
Positive
14th-15th
CNY
M2 Money Supply y/y
8.60%
8.70%
Negative
3:30pm
EUR
Flash Employment Change q/q
0.10%
0.10%
Neutral
EUR
Flash GDP q/q
0.10%
0.10%
Neutral
EUR
Trade Balance
19.1B
19.2B
Neutral
7:00pm
USD
Core Retail Sales m/m
0.30%
0.70%
Negative
USD
Retail Sales m/m
0.30%
0.30%
Neutral
USD
Import Prices m/m
-0.20%
0.30%
Negative
7:45pm
USD
Capacity Utilization Rate
76.90%
77.00%
Negative
USD
Industrial Production m/m
-0.20%
-0.30%
Negative
8:30pm
USD
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
99.5
99.8
Negative
USD
Business Inventories m/m
0.10%
-0.20%
Positive
USD
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
-
2.50%
-
10:15pm
USD
FOMC Member Mester Speaks
-
-
-
Impact: High | Low | Medium
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar.
Technical chart source: TickerNews
Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com
*DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
Previous Story
Share Market Today 14th february 2020
Market Recap Market Outlook Bank Nifty Outlook Exhibit 4: Participants Activity FII STATS FII (Activity in no. of Contracts) in Rs. Cr. Bought Sold Net Chg Conclusion NET OI INDEX FUTURES -1235.28 -11532 5586 -17,118 Long unwidning -105522 INDEX CALLS 1072.08 -22291 -4444 -17,847 Unwinding 88667 INDEX PUTS -31044 -24860 -6,184 81157 NET 412.95 Bearish PROP (Activity in no. of Contracts) Bought Sold Net Chg Conclusion NET OI INDEX FUTURES 1533 -1203 2,736 Long addition 4229 INDEX CALLS -48694 -70903 22,209 Unwinding -47509 INDEX PUTS -38850 -142994 1,04,144 -216154 Bullish Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Note on Participants Activity Derivative Outlook Exhibit 6: LONG BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % TORNTPOWER 315.55 5.38% 5289000 23.37% TORNTPHARM 2086.4 3.44% 426500 16.05% NIFTYIT 16642 0.71% 7600 14.29% CESC 709.9 1.24% 1778400 7.55% APOLLOHOSP 1699.1 0.62% 2083000 5.84% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Exhibit 7: SHORT BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % TATASTEEL 442.55 -1.44% 25683000 6.25% NMDC 105 -4.37% 45486000 5.78% BANKNIFTY 31231.35 -1.06% 1357840 5.70% COLPAL 1351.4 -0.25% 3332000 5.12% MFSL 492.55 -0.23% 6111300 4.93% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Exhibit 8: LONG UNWINDING SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % MGL 1186.75 -3.13% 2033400 -8.50% PFC 126.05 -0.87% 38353200 -6.00% BHARATFORG 482.9 -0.45% 8187400 -3.02% RECLTD 141.4 -0.77% 23700000 -2.64% CADILAHC 269.85 -0.83% 8355600 -2.59% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Exhibit 9: SHORT COVERING SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % RAMCOCEM 790.4 1.05% 1620000 -6.60% JUSTDIAL 516.35 1.67% 3141600 -6.27% BALKRISIND 1150.95 0.22% 1827200 -3.95% MCDOWELL-N 710.75 2.44% 12965000 -3.86% YESBANK 35.35 9.61% 282964000 -3.47% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Nifty 50 Pivots SYMBOL Close S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 374.10 367.57 370.83 374.87 378.13 382.17 ASIANPAINT 1893.70 1857.70 1875.70 1896.20 1914.20 1934.70 AXISBANK 755.25 745.95 750.60 755.65 760.30 765.35 BAJAJ-AUTO 3146.30 3108.13 3127.22 3155.93 3175.02 3203.73 BAJFINANCE 4768.70 4697.43 4733.07 4757.63 4793.27 4817.83 BAJAJFINSV 9771.85 9610.32 9691.08 9766.02 9846.78 9921.72 BPCL 474.75 466.32 470.53 478.12 482.33 489.92 BHARTIARTL 539.60 531.63 535.62 538.98 542.97 546.33 INFRATEL 243.35 238.72 241.03 244.52 246.83 250.32 BRITANNIA 3136.80 3071.87 3104.33 3156.67 3189.13 3241.47 CIPLA 446.80 438.97 442.88 448.92 452.83 458.87 COALINDIA 180.30 175.43 177.87 180.63 183.07 185.83 DRREDDY 3195.70 3141.57 3168.63 3191.12 3218.18 3240.67 EICHERMOT 19277.85 18753.68 19015.77 19187.88 19449.97 19622.08 GAIL 130.35 126.12 128.23 129.62 131.73 133.12 GRASIM 755.35 741.48 748.42 761.43 768.37 781.38 HCLTECH 614.10 604.77 609.43 614.97 619.63 625.17 HDFCBANK 1249.00 1239.80 1244.40 1248.65 1253.25 1257.50 HEROMOTOCO 2423.05 2387.68 2405.37 2417.68 2435.37 2447.68 HINDALCO 193.65 188.55 191.10 193.75 196.30 198.95 HINDUNILVR 2260.35 2112.12 2186.23 2229.12 2303.23 2346.12 HDFC 2437.60 2391.73 2414.67 2450.83 2473.77 2509.93 ICICIBANK 549.30 539.57 544.43 547.57 552.43 555.57 ITC 213.05 210.22 211.63 213.22 214.63 216.22 IOC 115.10 113.27 114.18 115.57 116.48 117.87 INDUSINDBK 1277.40 1226.13 1251.77 1277.33 1302.97 1328.53 INFY 781.05 771.65 776.35 779.80 784.50 787.95 JSWSTEEL 293.70 285.63 289.67 292.53 296.57 299.43 KOTAKBANK 1714.90 1658.30 1686.60 1703.30 1731.60 1748.30 LT 1297.30 1272.53 1284.92 1292.38 1304.77 1312.23 M&M 531.00 519.33 525.17 529.73 535.57 540.13 MARUTI 7043.30 6951.70 6997.50 7053.75 7099.55 7155.80 NTPC 116.80 114.87 115.83 117.37 118.33 119.87 NESTLEIND 16297.70 15742.10 16019.90 16246.25 16524.05 16750.40 ONGC 106.70 105.70 106.20 107.00 107.50 108.30 POWERGRID 189.35 186.58 187.97 189.93 191.32 193.28 RELIANCE 1470.30 1446.87 1458.58 1466.72 1478.43 1486.57 SBIN 320.20 312.47 316.33 323.12 326.98 333.77 SUNPHARMA 414.60 409.33 411.97 416.63 419.27 423.93 TCS 2170.75 2133.58 2152.17 2168.58 2187.17 2203.58 TATAMOTORS 170.95 166.78 168.87 171.08 173.17 175.38 TATASTEEL 55.35 53.92 54.63 55.77 56.48 57.62 TECHM 821.50 811.93 816.72 821.58 826.37 831.23 TITAN 1269.00 1251.50 1260.25 1274.60 1283.35 1297.70 UPL 573.90 563.23 568.57 575.78 581.12 588.33 ULTRACEMCO 4453.75 4409.38 4431.57 4462.13 4484.32 4514.88 VEDL 141.55 139.45 140.50 142.20 143.25 144.95 WIPRO 244.45 238.98 241.72 244.43 247.17 249.88 YESBANK 35.20 33.97 34.58 35.67 36.28 37.37 ZEEL 232.05 228.85 230.45 232.70 234.30 236.55 Note: The levels for TATASTEEL are of TATASTEEL Partly Paid up Share. Disclaimer: "Investment in securities market and Mutual Funds are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.")