Daily Currency Research Report – 8th May 2019

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CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELS
Currency Pivot Levels 8th May 2019



CROSS CURRENCY UDPATE
Cross Currency Update 8th May 2019



USDINR 29 MAY 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UPDATE
Currency USDINR 29 May 2019 Expiry Option Update 8th May 2019



RBI REFERENCE RATE (MAY 7, 2019)
Currency RBI Reference Rate 8th May 2019


TECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIR


USDINR (May Future)
Currency USDINR May Future 8th May 2019

Dollar/rupee had a neutral trade yesterday and settled at 69.6250 almost flat as market now awaits clearer cues in the US China trade deal front. On the other hand, greenback was little changed against its major counterparts as investors awaited updates on US-China trade negotiations. Crude oil prices surged above $71 a barrel backed by US sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela, while escalating Sino-U.S. trade dispute weighed on market sentiments, checking the sharp rise.

Technical, On the EOD chart, USDINR traded below its immediate resistance 69.75 yesterday. Near-term bias is expected to remain neutral to negative and possible trading range would be 69.35-69.65 unless it gives a closing above 69.75. A break above 69.75 only could result in upside move towards 70.20 and above.

Trend –Neutral



GBPINR (May Future)
Currency GBPINR May Future 8th May 2019

Pound/Rupee reamined slighlty negative on Tuesday on lingering risk worries following US President Donald Trump's weekend warning to raise tariffs on Chinese imports. Meanwhile, investors remain cautious awaiting any development from the ongoing cross-party Brexit talk in UK. Brexit talks resumed on Monday between the British government and the main opposition Labour party to negotiate the terms of Brexit, in particular the shape of a customs union.

Technical, On the EOD Chart, GBPINR trading on verge of triangle resistance 91.70 in break above will create probability for 2-3% sharp bullish move. Failure of the break only could witness consolidation towards 90.70-90.50 again.

Trend –Bullish above 91.70


MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY/EARLIER TODAY

  • Reserves dropped to $3.095 trillion in April from $3.099 trillion in March, the People’s Bank of China said Tuesday.
  • Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to hold rates at 1.50 percent wrong-footed some doves and sent the Aussie dollar jumping to a one-week top of $0.7048.
  • Germany's Factory orders rose 0.6% in March compared to the 4.0% fall in February.
  • Japan Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged lower to a seasonally adjusted 51.8 in April from 52.0 in March.


MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS SCHEDULE TODAY
Currency Major Economic Data & Events Schedule Today 8th May 2019
 



Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.

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Daily Currency Research Report – 7th May 2019

CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELS CROSS CURRENCY UDPATE USDINR 29 MAY, 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UPDATE RBI REFERENCE RATE (MAY 6, 2019) TECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIR USDINR (May Future) Escalating trade tensions has witnessed slightly positive movements in Dollar/Rupee yesterday. US President Donald Trump escalated tensions through twitter that the talks toward a trade deal with China were proceeding "too slowly", and that he would raise tariffs on $200 billion of goods to 25% on Friday from 10%. However, Brent futures for July delivery drop nearly 2% at $69.44 a barrel which kept its somewhat gain during the day. Dollar/Rupee Future settled at 69.5850 with 0.18% intradaygain. Technical, On the EOD chart, USDINR was unable to break its immediate resistance 69.75 which yet indicating that the near term bias could be neutral to negative unless it gives a closing above 69.75. A break above 69.75 only could result in upside move towards 70.20 and above. Trend –Neutral GBPINR (May Future) Pound/Rupee witnessed 0.91% gain yestrday. Howerver, GBP retreated agaisnt the US dollar Monday as investors turned gloomy after senior UK Labour Party officials cast doubt on the prospect of any agreement from the cross-party Brexit talk. Focus is set to remain on Brexit as cross-party talks enter their final stages with investors keenly awaiting its outcome. Cross-party Brexit talks are set to resume this week as British ministers urged leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn to do a deal with the Government to break the Brexit deadlock. Technical, On the EOD Chart, GBPINR trading on verge of triangle resistance 91.70 in break above will create probability for 2-3% sharp bullish move. Failure of the break only could witness consolidation towards 90.70-90.50 again. Trend –Bullish above 91.70 MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY / EARLIER TODAY Eurozone investor sentiment index for the euro zone rose to 5.3 in May from -0.3 in April. Analysts had expected a reading of 1.4. Germany Service PMI index rose to 55.7 from 55.4 in March, its highest reading since September, led by strong growth in the post and telecoms sector. Eurozone Markit purchasing managers index for services sector in Eurozone stood at 52.8 in April, beating market expectation of a figure of 52.5. Also, composite PMI stood at 51.5 in April compared to a market expectation of 51.3. Japan Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 50.2 in April from a final 49.2 in the previous month. Nikkei India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 51 in April from 52 recorded in March.   MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS SCHEDULE TODAY Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Source - investing.com, Reuters,forexlive & ticker news.   Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.  )

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Daily Commodity Research Report – 9th May 2019

BULLION Gold prices slightly lower as U.S. equity and Dollar gain. Trend volatile.Review Yesterday, both the precious metals were trades slightly lower in international markets. Gold settled at $1281.90 per troy ounce down by 0.28% while silver settled at $14.86 per troy ounce down by 0.47%. Domestic markets were also settled negative. Gold settled at Rs.31685 per 10 gram with the loss of 0.14% and MCX Silver settled at 37402 per 1 kilogram with the loss of 0.17%. Gold and silver prices lose its early gain after U.S. equity and dollar index recovered from lows. Gold is also test key resistance of $1292 in international markets but unable to hold above $1292 and slide again after sharp gain in dollar index. Looking to the slowdown in Chinese economy and rising trade tensions between US-China we expect gold prices will hold its support levels of $1266 and will show strength in coming sessions. Gold is having support at $1274-1266 and resistance at $1288-1292. Silver is having support at $14.70-14.55 while resistance at $15-15.15. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Today, Gold is having support at 31588-31492 while resistance at 31853-32022, silver is having support at 37285-37167 and resistance at 37595-37787. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.   ENERGY Crude oil gain on lower U.S. inventory; trade tensions will limits gain. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, Crude oil prices gain in international market WTI Crude settled at $62.12 while Brent settled at $70.24 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled positive at 4334 per barrel with the gain of 1.64%. We have clearly mentioned in our yesterday’s report as crude oil can test resistance of $62.50, crude oil prices gain on surprisingly lower U.S. weekly crude oil inventory. The EIA said in its regular weekly report that crude oil inventories slumped by nearly 4 million barrels in the week to May 3, versus forecasts for a build of 1.2 million barrels. Crude stockpiles had risen by a net of nearly 30 million barrels in five earlier weeks, and oil bears had expected the trend to continue. After U.S. weekly inventory data U.S. is announced to increase tariff on $200 billion Chinese imports from 10% to 25% with effect from 10th May. After this news crude oil again came in pressure as due to escalation of trade war between world’s two biggest economies will affect demand of crude oil in coming days. We expect crude oil to trade in a range of $58.80-$62.50 Crude oil is having support at $61.50-60.80 and resistance at $62.50-62.80. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Crude oil is having support at 4275-4217 while resistance at 4371-4409, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.   BASE METALBase metals slips; Copper near three months low on US-China trade war. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, base metal prices settled mixed in international market. 3M LME copper settled at $6135 per metric ton down by 0.37% from previous close. Copper fell to a near three-month low on Wednesday on concerns over a potential resumption of tit-for-tat trade tariffs between the United States and China ahead of last-ditch negotiations. U.S. announced to increase tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods on Friday has raised the risk of an escalation in the spat between Washington and Beijing. This could further slow the global economy, while clouding the outlook for demand from top metals consumer China. The two sides will hold last-ditch talks in Washington on Thursday and Friday. We expect looking to the trade tensions between US-China and rising dollar index will affect base metals and it is expected to remain volatile during today’s session. Today, Copper is having support around 427-424 while resistance at 434-438. Nickel will trade in a range of 820-848, Zinc will trade in a range of 210-218, and Lead will trade in a range of 128-133 while Aluminium trade in a range of 144-149.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Copper is having support at 427 and 424 while resistance at 434 and 438, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. AGRI COMMODITYHigher Chinese import supports soybean prices; trade war will limits gain. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, Soybean settled positive in domestic markets at 3695 per quintal with the gain of 1.29%. CBOT were settled at 825. Soybean prices shows strength in yesterday’s trade as Chinese soybean import rises by 10% in the month of April against previous year. Major boost seen in Chinese imports due to lowering VAT from the month of April this year and some shipments were shifted from March to April. We expect after U.S. announce higher tariff on Chinese imports from 10th May, again global commodity prices will show weakness in coming days. Investors are suggested to book profit in soybean in the range of 3700-3740. Other Agriculture commodities at NCDEX shows mixed trend, Chana settled with the gain of 0.30%, Castor seed settled negative with the loss of 1.13%. RM Seed closed positive with the gain of 0.82%. Guar Seed settled negative with the loss of 0.66% while Guar Gum settled with the loss of 0.50%. Spices pack settled mixed Jeera and Turmeric settled positive while coriander settled negative. Cotton seed oilcake closed positive with the gain of 1.21%. Refined Soyoil closed positive with the gain of 0.31%. We expect Refined Soyoil to trade in a range of 730-747.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Soybean is having support around 3660-3630 while resistance at 3720-3740, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 734-730 while resistance at 744-747 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news.Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)

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