Escalating trade tensions has witnessed slightly positive movements in Dollar/Rupee yesterday. US President Donald Trump escalated tensions through twitter that the talks toward a trade deal with China were proceeding "too slowly", and that he would raise tariffs on $200 billion of goods to 25% on Friday from 10%. However, Brent futures for July delivery drop nearly 2% at $69.44 a barrel which kept its somewhat gain during the day. Dollar/Rupee Future settled at 69.5850 with 0.18% intraday gain.
Technical, On the EOD chart, USDINR was unable to break its immediate resistance 69.75 which yet indicating that the near term bias could be neutral to negative unless it gives a closing above 69.75. A break above 69.75 only could result in upside move towards 70.20 and above.
Trend –Neutral
GBPINR (May Future)
Pound/Rupee witnessed 0.91% gain yestrday. Howerver, GBP retreated agaisnt the US dollar Monday as investors turned gloomy after senior UK Labour Party officials cast doubt on the prospect of any agreement from the cross-party Brexit talk. Focus is set to remain on Brexit as cross-party talks enter their final stages with investors keenly awaiting its outcome. Cross-party Brexit talks are set to resume this week as British ministers urged leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn to do a deal with the Government to break the Brexit deadlock.
Technical, On the EOD Chart, GBPINR trading on verge of triangle resistance 91.70 in break above will create probability for 2-3% sharp bullish move. Failure of the break only could witness consolidation towards 90.70-90.50 again.
Trend –Bullish above 91.70
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY / EARLIER TODAY
Eurozone investor sentiment index for the euro zone rose to 5.3 in May from -0.3 in April. Analysts had expected a reading of 1.4.
Germany Service PMI index rose to 55.7 from 55.4 in March, its highest reading since September, led by strong growth in the post and telecoms sector.
Eurozone Markit purchasing managers index for services sector in Eurozone stood at 52.8 in April, beating market expectation of a figure of 52.5. Also, composite PMI stood at 51.5 in April compared to a market expectation of 51.3.
Japan Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 50.2 in April from a final 49.2 in the previous month.
Nikkei India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 51 in April from 52 recorded in March.
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS SCHEDULE TODAY
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 09-MAY-2019
MARKET RECAPKey Market Data Points
For the third consecutive session, the domestic market was completely dominated by the bears on the back of weak global cues. The index Nifty lost another 140 points during the session to close well below 11400 mark. Till now, the index has lost more than 3% during the week. On the other hand, the Nifty Bank lost around 300 points to close below 29000 mark.
Yet again the market breadth remained in the favour of declining counters throughout the session which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, all the group indices closed in negative terrain. With regards to losers, NIFTY MEDIA (-4.53%) and NIFTY REALTY (-2.11%) stocks were the biggest laggards. From the F&O space, JETAIRWAYS (+17.1%), CGPOWER (+8.84%) and CEALTLTD (+3.28%) were the biggest performers.
MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY Chart
Selling pressure persisted in the markets for third session which dragged the index below the mentioned support of 11420. In fact the index is now hovering near the previous swing low of 11312. In the upcoming session, 11310 might act as an intermediate support for the index since even the intraday charts looks exhausted. In case of any pullback 11420 – 11450 might act as strong resistance for the index.
Till the time Nifty trades below 11500 traders should avoid any aggressive long bet. Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions.Disclaimer)
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 09-MAY-2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELS
CROSS CURRENCY UDPATE
USDINR 29 MAY 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UPDATE
RBI REFERENCE RATE (MAY 7, 2019)
TECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRUSDINR (May Future)
Dollar/rupee had a neutral trade yesterday and settled at 69.6250 almost flat as market now awaits clearer cues in the US China trade deal front. On the other hand, greenback was little changed against its major counterparts as investors awaited updates on US-China trade negotiations. Crude oil prices surged above $71 a barrel backed by US sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela, while escalating Sino-U.S. trade dispute weighed on market sentiments, checking the sharp rise.
Technical, On the EOD chart, USDINR traded below its immediate resistance 69.75 yesterday. Near-term bias is expected to remain neutral to negative and possible trading range would be 69.35-69.65 unless it gives a closing above 69.75. A break above 69.75 only could result in upside move towards 70.20 and above.
Trend –Neutral
GBPINR (May Future)
Pound/Rupee reamined slighlty negative on Tuesday on lingering risk worries following US President Donald Trump's weekend warning to raise tariffs on Chinese imports. Meanwhile, investors remain cautious awaiting any development from the ongoing cross-party Brexit talk in UK. Brexit talks resumed on Monday between the British government and the main opposition Labour party to negotiate the terms of Brexit, in particular the shape of a customs union.
Technical, On the EOD Chart, GBPINR trading on verge of triangle resistance 91.70 in break above will create probability for 2-3% sharp bullish move. Failure of the break only could witness consolidation towards 90.70-90.50 again.
Trend –Bullish above 91.70
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY/EARLIER TODAY
Reserves dropped to $3.095 trillion in April from $3.099 trillion in March, the People’s Bank of China said Tuesday.
Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to hold rates at 1.50 percent wrong-footed some doves and sent the Aussie dollar jumping to a one-week top of $0.7048.
Germany's Factory orders rose 0.6% in March compared to the 4.0% fall in February.
Japan Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged lower to a seasonally adjusted 51.8 in April from 52.0 in March.
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS SCHEDULE TODAY
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)
Daily Currency Research Report – 7th May 2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELS
CROSS CURRENCY UDPATE
USDINR 29 MAY, 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UPDATE
RBI REFERENCE RATE (MAY 6, 2019)
TECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIR
USDINR (May Future)
Escalating trade tensions has witnessed slightly positive movements in Dollar/Rupee yesterday. US President Donald Trump escalated tensions through twitter that the talks toward a trade deal with China were proceeding "too slowly", and that he would raise tariffs on $200 billion of goods to 25% on Friday from 10%. However, Brent futures for July delivery drop nearly 2% at $69.44 a barrel which kept its somewhat gain during the day. Dollar/Rupee Future settled at 69.5850 with 0.18% intraday
gain.
Technical, On the EOD chart, USDINR was unable to break its immediate resistance 69.75 which yet indicating that the near term bias could be neutral to negative unless it gives a closing above 69.75. A break above 69.75 only could result in upside move towards 70.20 and above.
Trend –Neutral
GBPINR (May Future)
Pound/Rupee witnessed 0.91% gain yestrday. Howerver, GBP retreated agaisnt the US dollar Monday as investors turned gloomy after senior UK Labour Party officials cast doubt on the prospect of any agreement from the cross-party Brexit talk. Focus is set to remain on Brexit as cross-party talks enter their final stages with investors keenly awaiting its outcome. Cross-party Brexit talks are set to resume this week as British ministers urged leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn to do a deal with the Government to break the Brexit deadlock.
Technical, On the EOD Chart, GBPINR trading on verge of triangle resistance 91.70 in break above will create probability for 2-3% sharp bullish move. Failure of the break only could witness consolidation towards 90.70-90.50 again.
Trend –Bullish above 91.70
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY / EARLIER TODAY
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS SCHEDULE TODAY
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Source - investing.com, Reuters,forexlive & ticker news.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
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Share Market Today - 9th May 2019
MARKET RECAPKey Market Data Points For the third consecutive session, the domestic market was completely dominated by the bears on the back of weak global cues. The index Nifty lost another 140 points during the session to close well below 11400 mark. Till now, the index has lost more than 3% during the week. On the other hand, the Nifty Bank lost around 300 points to close below 29000 mark. Yet again the market breadth remained in the favour of declining counters throughout the session which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, all the group indices closed in negative terrain. With regards to losers, NIFTY MEDIA (-4.53%) and NIFTY REALTY (-2.11%) stocks were the biggest laggards. From the F&O space, JETAIRWAYS (+17.1%), CGPOWER (+8.84%) and CEALTLTD (+3.28%) were the biggest performers. MARKET OUTLOOK NIFTY Chart Selling pressure persisted in the markets for third session which dragged the index below the mentioned support of 11420. In fact the index is now hovering near the previous swing low of 11312. In the upcoming session, 11310 might act as an intermediate support for the index since even the intraday charts looks exhausted. In case of any pullback 11420 – 11450 might act as strong resistance for the index. Till the time Nifty trades below 11500 traders should avoid any aggressive long bet. Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions.Disclaimer)
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Daily Currency Research Report – 8th May 2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELS CROSS CURRENCY UDPATE USDINR 29 MAY 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UPDATE RBI REFERENCE RATE (MAY 7, 2019) TECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRUSDINR (May Future) Dollar/rupee had a neutral trade yesterday and settled at 69.6250 almost flat as market now awaits clearer cues in the US China trade deal front. On the other hand, greenback was little changed against its major counterparts as investors awaited updates on US-China trade negotiations. Crude oil prices surged above $71 a barrel backed by US sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela, while escalating Sino-U.S. trade dispute weighed on market sentiments, checking the sharp rise. Technical, On the EOD chart, USDINR traded below its immediate resistance 69.75 yesterday. Near-term bias is expected to remain neutral to negative and possible trading range would be 69.35-69.65 unless it gives a closing above 69.75. A break above 69.75 only could result in upside move towards 70.20 and above. Trend –Neutral GBPINR (May Future) Pound/Rupee reamined slighlty negative on Tuesday on lingering risk worries following US President Donald Trump's weekend warning to raise tariffs on Chinese imports. Meanwhile, investors remain cautious awaiting any development from the ongoing cross-party Brexit talk in UK. Brexit talks resumed on Monday between the British government and the main opposition Labour party to negotiate the terms of Brexit, in particular the shape of a customs union. Technical, On the EOD Chart, GBPINR trading on verge of triangle resistance 91.70 in break above will create probability for 2-3% sharp bullish move. Failure of the break only could witness consolidation towards 90.70-90.50 again. Trend –Bullish above 91.70 MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY/EARLIER TODAY Reserves dropped to $3.095 trillion in April from $3.099 trillion in March, the People’s Bank of China said Tuesday. Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to hold rates at 1.50 percent wrong-footed some doves and sent the Aussie dollar jumping to a one-week top of $0.7048. Germany's Factory orders rose 0.6% in March compared to the 4.0% fall in February. Japan Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged lower to a seasonally adjusted 51.8 in April from 52.0 in March. MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS SCHEDULE TODAY Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)