Dollar/Rupee extended its recent fall and dropped towards 69.56 yesterday compared to Tuesday close of 69.8450. Since 25 April 2019, Crude oil plunged more than 5% from the recent high which supporting to the local currency, but upward pressure in the dollar after the slightly hawkish FOMC statement has support it. Also, hopes the US and China may soon reach a trade deal added somewhat pressure. Reports showed that the US and China may announce a trade deal by the end of the next week. Officials from both sides wrapped up the latest round of negotiations in Beijing on Wednesday as the two countries try to hammer out detailed trade agreement. Technical, USDINR retreated from 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its 26 Feb 2019- 19 March 2019 fall and after hitting a day low 69.56 settled at 69.61 levels. In near term 69.45 will act as a crucial support and break below 69.45 only would extend its recent losses towards 69.00 and below. Else, pair expects to consolidate around 69.45-69.95 before next any bearish or bullish move.
Trend –Neutral
EURINR (May Future)
EUR/Rupee witnessed 0.42% intraday fall yesterday and settled at 78.22 compared to previous trading close of 78.55. Howerver, it found somewehat support against dollar as data pointed to better than expected manufacturing conditions in the region. Technical, On the EOD chart, EURINR has broke short term consolidation support of 78.19 and formed a long bearish candle stick which creating probability for drastic fall in days to come. Today, a break below 78.15 would extend its losses towards 77.90-77.50. On the upside, resistance is seen at 78.65-79.10.
Trend –Bearish
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today
Bank of England left interest rates on hold at 0.75% on Thursday and raised it growth forecasts, in what was its first monetary policy meeting since the deadline for Brexit was delayed for six months.
Eurozone's Markit manufacturing PMI increased to 47.9 in April compared to 47.5 to its previous release.
Eurozone's PMI manufacturing data helped to smooth concerns over the region's growth outlook
Germany's Markit manufacturing PMI increased to 44.4 from 44.1.
Retail sales fell 0.2% in Germany in March on a month-o-month basis, when the market was expecting a sharper drop of 0.4%.
US nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 3.6 percent annualized rate in the last quarter. That was the strongest pace since the third quarter of 2014.
US Initial claims for state unemployment benefits were flat at a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended April 27, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims surged 37,000 in the prior week, which was the largest rise since September 2017.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 08-MAY-2019
BULLION Gold prices slightly up on safe haven buying U.S. equity slide. Trend volatile Review Yesterday, both the precious metals were trades slightly positive in international markets. Gold settled at $1285.60 per troy ounce up by 0.14% while silver settled at $14.93 per troy ounce up by 0.06%. Domestic markets were also settled positive. Gold settled at Rs.31729 per 10 gram with the gain of 0.53% and MCX Silver settled at 37464 per 1 kilogram with the gain of 0.24%. Gold prices were slightly higher in international markets yesterday and appeals safe haven buying as U.S. equity markets are in pressure due to US-China trade tensions and investors are shifting from paper assets to yellow metal again. Near term outlook for global equity market is remain negative and dollar index is also trading in a range. We expect gold to gain momentum and will test resistance of $1292 and $1300 again. Gold is having support at $1278-1272 and resistance at $1292-1300. Silver is having support at $14.78-14.64 while resistance at $15.10-15.24. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Today, Gold is having support at 31582-31436 while resistance at 31810-31892, silver is having support at 37249-37035 and resistance at 37599-37735. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
ENERGY Crude oil price dip as trade tension looms between US-China. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, Crude oil prices slips in international market WTI Crude settled at $61.40 while Brent settled at $69.79 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled negative at 4264 per barrel with the loss of 1.89%. After a sharp recovery from lower levels on Monday, crude oil prices slips again yesterday as trade tensions looming between US-China and which is indicating for lower global demand. But U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela is balancing oil in international markets. The United States re-imposed sanctions on Iran in November last year, demanding all countries stop importing oil from the country. Iran has said it will defy the sanctions and continue to export oil. Most analysts expect its crude export to fall to little more than 500,000 barrels per day, down from around 1 million bpd in April, as governments largely bow to American pressure. Washington has also slapped sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports, further disrupting crude supply. We expect crude oil to show strength and will test resistance of $62.50. Crude oil is having support at $61.20-60.80 and resistance at $61.90-62.50. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Crude oil is having support at 4216-4168 while resistance at 4328-4392, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
BASE METALBase metals slips; Copper head towards February low as trade tension loom. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, base metal prices settled mixed in international market. 3M LME copper settled at $6158 per metric ton down by 1.33% from previous close. Base metal prices shows volatility in yesterday’s trading session as trade tension loom between US-China. Copper prices fell on Tuesday towards 2-1/2 month lows hit last week on worries about demand after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would raise tariffs on Chinese goods before U.S-China trade talks. The sell-off on the LME is a delayed reaction to Trump's comments over the weekend about higher tariffs, one copper trader said, adding that a break of the 200-day moving average around $6,190 had fuelled downward momentum. We expect base metal remain volatile and any positive comment from US-China trade official will support prices in international markets. Weakness in rupee will support prices in domestic markets. Today, Copper is having support around 427-424 while resistance at 435-441. Nickel will trade in a range of 824-858, Zinc will trade in a range of 212-220, and Lead will trade in a range of 128-133 while Aluminium trade in a range of 144-149.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Copper is having support at 427 and 424 while resistance at 435 and 441, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
AGRI COMMODITYLower arrivals and weakness in rupee support agriculture commodities. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, Soybean settled positive in domestic markets at 3647 per quintal with the gain of 0.44%. CBOT were settled at 831. Lower arrival in domestic mandies due to Akshay Tritya and parliamentary elections, and weakness in rupee support agriculture commodities in domestic markets. Prices are also get support as oil complex shows some comeback in Bursa Malaysia and CBOT. We expect Soybean will test its resistance of 3680 while RM Seed will show some strength towards 3850 as good demand seen of crusher at lower levels. Coriander will also show strength and could test key resistance of 7450. Other Agriculture commodities shows strength at NCDEX, Chana settled with the gain of 0.05%, Castor seed settled positive with the gain of 0.71%. RM Seed closed positive with the gain of 0.13%. Guar Seed settled positive with the gain of 0.06% while Guar Gum settled with the loss of 0.28%. Spices pack settled positive Coriander, Jeera and Turmeric settled positive. Cotton seed oilcake closed positive with the gain of 0.63%. Refined Soyoil closed positive with the gain of 0.68%. We expect Refined Soyoil to trade in a range of 728-747.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Soybean is having support around 3620-3600 while resistance at 3680-3700, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 732-728 while resistance at 744-747 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news.
Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 09-MAY-2019
MARKET RECAPKey Market Data Points
For the third consecutive session, the domestic market was completely dominated by the bears on the back of weak global cues. The index Nifty lost another 140 points during the session to close well below 11400 mark. Till now, the index has lost more than 3% during the week. On the other hand, the Nifty Bank lost around 300 points to close below 29000 mark.
Yet again the market breadth remained in the favour of declining counters throughout the session which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, all the group indices closed in negative terrain. With regards to losers, NIFTY MEDIA (-4.53%) and NIFTY REALTY (-2.11%) stocks were the biggest laggards. From the F&O space, JETAIRWAYS (+17.1%), CGPOWER (+8.84%) and CEALTLTD (+3.28%) were the biggest performers.
MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY Chart
Selling pressure persisted in the markets for third session which dragged the index below the mentioned support of 11420. In fact the index is now hovering near the previous swing low of 11312. In the upcoming session, 11310 might act as an intermediate support for the index since even the intraday charts looks exhausted. In case of any pullback 11420 – 11450 might act as strong resistance for the index.
Till the time Nifty trades below 11500 traders should avoid any aggressive long bet. Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions.Disclaimer)
Daily Currency Research Report – 3rd May 2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELS
CROSS CURRENCY UPDATE
USDINR 29MAY, 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UPDATE
RBI REFERENCE RATE
USDINR (May Future)
Dollar/Rupee extended its recent fall and dropped towards 69.56 yesterday compared to Tuesday close of 69.8450. Since 25 April 2019, Crude oil plunged more than 5% from the recent high which supporting to the local currency, but upward pressure in the dollar after the slightly hawkish FOMC statement has support it. Also, hopes the US and China may soon reach a trade deal added somewhat pressure. Reports showed that the US and China may announce a trade deal by the end of the next week. Officials from both sides wrapped up the latest round of negotiations in Beijing on Wednesday as the two countries try to hammer out detailed trade agreement.
Technical, USDINR retreated from 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its 26 Feb 2019- 19 March 2019 fall and after hitting a day low 69.56 settled at 69.61 levels. In near term 69.45 will act as a crucial support and break below 69.45 only would extend its recent losses towards 69.00 and below. Else, pair expects to consolidate around 69.45-69.95 before next any bearish or bullish move.
Trend –Neutral
EURINR (May Future)
EUR/Rupee witnessed 0.42% intraday fall yesterday and settled at 78.22 compared to previous trading close of 78.55. Howerver, it found somewehat support against dollar as data pointed to better than expected manufacturing conditions in the region. Technical, On the EOD chart, EURINR has broke short term consolidation support of 78.19 and formed a long bearish candle stick which creating probability for drastic fall in days to come. Today, a break below 78.15 would extend its losses towards 77.90-77.50. On the upside, resistance is seen at 78.65-79.10.
Trend –Bearish
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
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Daily Commodity Research Report – 8th May 2019
BULLION Gold prices slightly up on safe haven buying U.S. equity slide. Trend volatile Review Yesterday, both the precious metals were trades slightly positive in international markets. Gold settled at $1285.60 per troy ounce up by 0.14% while silver settled at $14.93 per troy ounce up by 0.06%. Domestic markets were also settled positive. Gold settled at Rs.31729 per 10 gram with the gain of 0.53% and MCX Silver settled at 37464 per 1 kilogram with the gain of 0.24%. Gold prices were slightly higher in international markets yesterday and appeals safe haven buying as U.S. equity markets are in pressure due to US-China trade tensions and investors are shifting from paper assets to yellow metal again. Near term outlook for global equity market is remain negative and dollar index is also trading in a range. We expect gold to gain momentum and will test resistance of $1292 and $1300 again. Gold is having support at $1278-1272 and resistance at $1292-1300. Silver is having support at $14.78-14.64 while resistance at $15.10-15.24. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Today, Gold is having support at 31582-31436 while resistance at 31810-31892, silver is having support at 37249-37035 and resistance at 37599-37735. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. ENERGY Crude oil price dip as trade tension looms between US-China. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, Crude oil prices slips in international market WTI Crude settled at $61.40 while Brent settled at $69.79 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled negative at 4264 per barrel with the loss of 1.89%. After a sharp recovery from lower levels on Monday, crude oil prices slips again yesterday as trade tensions looming between US-China and which is indicating for lower global demand. But U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela is balancing oil in international markets. The United States re-imposed sanctions on Iran in November last year, demanding all countries stop importing oil from the country. Iran has said it will defy the sanctions and continue to export oil. Most analysts expect its crude export to fall to little more than 500,000 barrels per day, down from around 1 million bpd in April, as governments largely bow to American pressure. Washington has also slapped sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports, further disrupting crude supply. We expect crude oil to show strength and will test resistance of $62.50. Crude oil is having support at $61.20-60.80 and resistance at $61.90-62.50. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Crude oil is having support at 4216-4168 while resistance at 4328-4392, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. BASE METALBase metals slips; Copper head towards February low as trade tension loom. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, base metal prices settled mixed in international market. 3M LME copper settled at $6158 per metric ton down by 1.33% from previous close. Base metal prices shows volatility in yesterday’s trading session as trade tension loom between US-China. Copper prices fell on Tuesday towards 2-1/2 month lows hit last week on worries about demand after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would raise tariffs on Chinese goods before U.S-China trade talks. The sell-off on the LME is a delayed reaction to Trump's comments over the weekend about higher tariffs, one copper trader said, adding that a break of the 200-day moving average around $6,190 had fuelled downward momentum. We expect base metal remain volatile and any positive comment from US-China trade official will support prices in international markets. Weakness in rupee will support prices in domestic markets. Today, Copper is having support around 427-424 while resistance at 435-441. Nickel will trade in a range of 824-858, Zinc will trade in a range of 212-220, and Lead will trade in a range of 128-133 while Aluminium trade in a range of 144-149.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Copper is having support at 427 and 424 while resistance at 435 and 441, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. AGRI COMMODITYLower arrivals and weakness in rupee support agriculture commodities. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, Soybean settled positive in domestic markets at 3647 per quintal with the gain of 0.44%. CBOT were settled at 831. Lower arrival in domestic mandies due to Akshay Tritya and parliamentary elections, and weakness in rupee support agriculture commodities in domestic markets. Prices are also get support as oil complex shows some comeback in Bursa Malaysia and CBOT. We expect Soybean will test its resistance of 3680 while RM Seed will show some strength towards 3850 as good demand seen of crusher at lower levels. Coriander will also show strength and could test key resistance of 7450. Other Agriculture commodities shows strength at NCDEX, Chana settled with the gain of 0.05%, Castor seed settled positive with the gain of 0.71%. RM Seed closed positive with the gain of 0.13%. Guar Seed settled positive with the gain of 0.06% while Guar Gum settled with the loss of 0.28%. Spices pack settled positive Coriander, Jeera and Turmeric settled positive. Cotton seed oilcake closed positive with the gain of 0.63%. Refined Soyoil closed positive with the gain of 0.68%. We expect Refined Soyoil to trade in a range of 728-747.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Soybean is having support around 3620-3600 while resistance at 3680-3700, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 732-728 while resistance at 744-747 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news. Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
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Share Market Today - 9th May 2019
MARKET RECAPKey Market Data Points For the third consecutive session, the domestic market was completely dominated by the bears on the back of weak global cues. The index Nifty lost another 140 points during the session to close well below 11400 mark. Till now, the index has lost more than 3% during the week. On the other hand, the Nifty Bank lost around 300 points to close below 29000 mark. Yet again the market breadth remained in the favour of declining counters throughout the session which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, all the group indices closed in negative terrain. With regards to losers, NIFTY MEDIA (-4.53%) and NIFTY REALTY (-2.11%) stocks were the biggest laggards. From the F&O space, JETAIRWAYS (+17.1%), CGPOWER (+8.84%) and CEALTLTD (+3.28%) were the biggest performers. MARKET OUTLOOK NIFTY Chart Selling pressure persisted in the markets for third session which dragged the index below the mentioned support of 11420. In fact the index is now hovering near the previous swing low of 11312. In the upcoming session, 11310 might act as an intermediate support for the index since even the intraday charts looks exhausted. In case of any pullback 11420 – 11450 might act as strong resistance for the index. Till the time Nifty trades below 11500 traders should avoid any aggressive long bet. Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions.Disclaimer)