Dollar/Rupee retreated more than 0.65% on Tuesday on weak dollar and sliding Brent prices but dollar demand due to selling in local stocks by FIIs has restricted somewhat loss during the day. Further, firm trend in euro after the GDP data from Eurozone weakened the US currency across the board. Brent eased on expectations that rising output from the US and producer club OPEC would offset most of the shortfall expected from US sanctions on Iran also added somewhat pressure. Forward premia for dollar across maturities traded lower Tuesday as exporters hedged their future receivables on fear of further fall in the spot pair.
Technical, USDINR retreated from 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its 26 Feb 2019- 19 March 2019 fall and after hitting a day low 69.8350 settled at 69.86 levels. In near term 69.70 will act as a crucial support and break below 69.70 only would extend its recent losses towards 69.50 and below. Else, pair expect to consolidate around 69.75-70.00 before next any bearish or bullish move.
Trend –Neutral
GBPINR (May Future)
Pound got somewhat suport on Tuesday following reports that the British Prime Minister Theresa May's government made substantive progress in the Brexit talks with the opposition Labour Party. In the report came on Monday, Labour Party sources have been quoted as saying that the government appeared to have shifted its position on the party's key demands around a closer customs union with the European Union after Brexit. Pair settled at 91.00 compared to Friday close of 90.9625.
Technical, GBPINR bounce slightly towards day high 91.15 but it struggled to break its previous day high. On the EOD chart, Pair trading on verge of Descending Triangle which is indicating for sharp move is awaiting in days to come. On the upside, massive resistance is seen at 91.50 and break out would open the door for 92.00-93.50; else any rise towards 91.25-91.30 could crate probability for downside move towards 90.00-89.50 again.
Trend –Volatile
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today
China's purchasing management index (PMI) dipped to 50.1 in April from 50.5 in the previous month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Eurozone economy expanded 0.4% in the first quarter, up from 0.2% growth in the previous quarter, Eurostat said on Tuesday. The consensus was for 0.3% expansion.
Eurozone jobless rate in the Eurozone fell to 7.7% in March, its lowest level since September 2008, from the February reading of 7.8%.
US pending home sales index increased to a reading of 105.8, up 3.8 percent from the prior month and the highest since July. February's index was unrevised at 101.9.
U.S. companies added 275,000 workers in April, the biggest monthly gain since last July and exceeding analysts' forecast of a 180,000 increase.
Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 2.50%, and vowed to continued with its patient approach to monetary policy, raising expectation that the central bank is unlikely to give into calls to cut rates.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 02-MAY-2019
BULLION Gold and silver prices slides as US Fed keeps key interest rates unchanged. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, both the precious metals were trades weak in international markets. Gold settled at $1283.55 per troy ounce down by 0.20% while silver settled at $14.74 per troy ounce down by 1.60%. Domestic markets were also settled weak. Gold settled at Rs.31740 per 10 gram with the loss of 0.05% and MCX Silver settled at 37139 per 1 kilogram with the loss of 1.52%. Gold prices are selling off and have hit daily lows in afternoon dealings Wednesday. The yellow metal is feeling pressure as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is holding his post-FOMC press conference and is sounding positive on the U.S. economic outlook. On the inflation outlook, Powell somewhat alleviated trader concerns regarding low inflation, for which some FOMC members did express concern in the FOMC statement, when he said the present low inflation could be due to "transitory" factors. That statement may have pushed the U.S. dollar index higher and puts pressure on gold. Gold is having support at $1276-1272 and resistance at $1288-1292. Silver is having support at $14.60-14.44 while resistance at $14.88-15.05. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Today, Gold is having support at 31675-31611 while resistance at 31784-31829, silver is having support at 36925-36712 and resistance at 37472-37806. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
ENERGY Crude oil prices dip as U.S. weekly inventory rises. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, Crude oil prices traded slightly weak in international market WTI Crude settled at $63.60 while Brent settled at $72.08 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled weak at 4422 per barrel with the loss of 1.01%. U.S. crude oil inventories rises nine times last week against expectations, adding a huge increase to a recent streak of builds, as a drop in refining activity, rise in imports and record high domestic production all came together to overwhelm traders. U.S. EIA said, Crude oil stock rose by 9.9 million barrels in the week to April 26, versus forecasts for a build of 1.5 million. There were surprises on the gasoline and distillates side of the data as well. The EIA said gasoline inventories rose by 0.9 million barrels, compared to expectations for a draw of 1 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles dropped by 1.3 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a decline of 193,000 barrels. U.S. crude production, meanwhile, rose by 100,000 barrels, to a record high of 12.3 million barrels per day. Higher production in U.S. and sanctions on Iran will keep crude oil prices volatile. Crude oil is having support at $63.10-62.70 and resistance at $64-64.40. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Crude oil is having support at 4383-4343 while resistance at 4460-4497, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
BASE METALBase metals crashed as dollar index gain after Fed keeps rate unchanged. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, base metal prices settled weak in international market. 3M LME copper settled at $6233 per metric ton down by 2.80% from previous close. Base metal prices gain in early trade on Wednesday in international markets as trade talk begins between US-China and hope of positive outcomes. But prices crashed in evening session as US Federal reserve keeps key interest rates unchanged and Dollar index gain. Dovish Fed statement and lower inflation forecast supports dollar index and which puts pressure on global commodity prices specially base metals. We expect base metal prices remain volatile and any positive outcome of US-China trade talk will support prices at lower levels. Today, Copper is having support around 432-428 while resistance at 439-441. Nickel will trade in a range of 834-864, Zinc will trade in a range of 216-223, and Lead will trade in a range of 127-133 while Aluminium trade in a range of 144-150.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Copper is having support at 432 and 428 while resistance at 439 and 441, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
AGRI COMMODITYStrong rupee and weak global cues puts pressure on agri commodities. Trend volatile. ReviewTuesday, Soybean settled weak in domestic markets at 3685 per quintal with the loss of 0.41%. CBOT were settled at 842. Strength in rupee and weakness in global commodity markets put pressure on domestic agriculture commodities market. Dollar index also gain and which also puts pressure on global commodities. We expect agriculture commodities remain volatile and spice complex will get support at lower levels. Most of the commodities at NCDEX settled weak, Chana settled with the loss of 0.39%, Castor seed settled weak with the loss of 2.37%. RM Seed closed negative with the loss of 0.61%. Guar Seed settled positive with the gain of 0.54% while Guar Gum settled with the gain of 0.57%. Spices pack settled weak Coriander, Jeera and Turmeric settled with loss due to profit booking. Cotton seed oilcake closed positive with the gain of 1.22%. Refined Soyoil closed positive with the gain of 0.11%. We expect Refined Soyoil to trade in a range of 734-748.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Soybean is having support around 3660-3630 while resistance at 3710-3740, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 737-734 while resistance at 746-748 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news.
Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 02-MAY-2019
MARKET RECAP Key Market Data PointsThe choppiness persisted on the D – street for fourth consecutive trading session yesterday. The domestic indices yet again remained stuck in a range throughout the session to close flat. Nifty spot sneaked just below 11700 mark during the first half but strong buying in the later part of the session helped the index to recover majority of its losses to rise towards 11800 zone. Eventually, the index closed in red with marginal loss. Meanwhile the Nifty bank still remained under pressure to close below 30K mark. As the day progressed, market breadth turned in the favour of declining counters which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, apart from NIFTY FIN SRV (+0.23%) and NIFTY REALTY (+0.12%) all the other group indices close in negative terrain. With regards to losers, NIFTY IT (-1.81%) and NIFTY MEDIA (-1.60%) stocks remained under pressure. From the F&O space, JETAIRWAYS (-22.22%), RPOWER (-11.38%) and ESCORTS (-8.37%) were the biggest laggards.
MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY Hourly CHART :Although volatile but the index Nifty oscillated in a broader range throughout the session. Despite such volatility, there are no major changes in price structure of Nifty spot. Thus we maintain our stance that if the support of 11550 is held then we might witness an extended relief rally going ahead. A convincing close above 11750 might pull the index towards all-time high or may be 12000 also. Although we are bullish for short term but we continue to maintain our medium term view that this rally should be used to book profits in long positions.
In case of any downside, 11650 – 11550 levels are likely to attract buying interest in coming sessions. Due to election activities we expect some volatility and thus continue to advice traders to avoid overleveraged positions and maintain strict stop loss.Disclaimer)
Daily Currency Research Report – 2nd May 2019
USDINR (May Future)
Dollar/Rupee retreated more than 0.65% on Tuesday on weak dollar and sliding Brent prices but dollar demand due to selling in local stocks by FIIs has restricted somewhat loss during the day. Further, firm trend in euro after the GDP data from Eurozone weakened the US currency across the board. Brent eased on expectations that rising output from the US and producer club OPEC would offset most of the shortfall expected from US sanctions on Iran also added somewhat pressure. Forward premia for dollar across maturities traded lower Tuesday as exporters hedged their future receivables on fear of further fall in the spot pair.
Technical, USDINR retreated from 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its 26 Feb 2019- 19 March 2019 fall and after hitting a day low 69.8350 settled at 69.86 levels. In near term 69.70 will act as a crucial support and break below 69.70 only would extend its recent losses towards 69.50 and below. Else, pair expect to consolidate around 69.75-70.00 before next any bearish or bullish move.
Trend –Neutral
GBPINR (May Future)
Pound got somewhat suport on Tuesday following reports that the British Prime Minister Theresa May's government made substantive progress in the Brexit talks with the opposition Labour Party. In the report came on Monday, Labour Party sources have been quoted as saying that the government appeared to have shifted its position on the party's key demands around a closer customs union with the European Union after Brexit. Pair settled at 91.00 compared to Friday close of 90.9625.
Technical, GBPINR bounce slightly towards day high 91.15 but it struggled to break its previous day high. On the EOD chart, Pair trading on verge of Descending Triangle which is indicating for sharp move is awaiting in days to come. On the upside, massive resistance is seen at 91.50 and break out would open the door for 92.00-93.50; else any rise towards 91.25-91.30 could crate probability for downside move towards 90.00-89.50 again.
Trend –Volatile
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative
indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends
on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
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Daily Commodity Research Report – 2nd May 2019
BULLION Gold and silver prices slides as US Fed keeps key interest rates unchanged. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, both the precious metals were trades weak in international markets. Gold settled at $1283.55 per troy ounce down by 0.20% while silver settled at $14.74 per troy ounce down by 1.60%. Domestic markets were also settled weak. Gold settled at Rs.31740 per 10 gram with the loss of 0.05% and MCX Silver settled at 37139 per 1 kilogram with the loss of 1.52%. Gold prices are selling off and have hit daily lows in afternoon dealings Wednesday. The yellow metal is feeling pressure as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is holding his post-FOMC press conference and is sounding positive on the U.S. economic outlook. On the inflation outlook, Powell somewhat alleviated trader concerns regarding low inflation, for which some FOMC members did express concern in the FOMC statement, when he said the present low inflation could be due to "transitory" factors. That statement may have pushed the U.S. dollar index higher and puts pressure on gold. Gold is having support at $1276-1272 and resistance at $1288-1292. Silver is having support at $14.60-14.44 while resistance at $14.88-15.05. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Today, Gold is having support at 31675-31611 while resistance at 31784-31829, silver is having support at 36925-36712 and resistance at 37472-37806. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. ENERGY Crude oil prices dip as U.S. weekly inventory rises. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, Crude oil prices traded slightly weak in international market WTI Crude settled at $63.60 while Brent settled at $72.08 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled weak at 4422 per barrel with the loss of 1.01%. U.S. crude oil inventories rises nine times last week against expectations, adding a huge increase to a recent streak of builds, as a drop in refining activity, rise in imports and record high domestic production all came together to overwhelm traders. U.S. EIA said, Crude oil stock rose by 9.9 million barrels in the week to April 26, versus forecasts for a build of 1.5 million. There were surprises on the gasoline and distillates side of the data as well. The EIA said gasoline inventories rose by 0.9 million barrels, compared to expectations for a draw of 1 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles dropped by 1.3 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a decline of 193,000 barrels. U.S. crude production, meanwhile, rose by 100,000 barrels, to a record high of 12.3 million barrels per day. Higher production in U.S. and sanctions on Iran will keep crude oil prices volatile. Crude oil is having support at $63.10-62.70 and resistance at $64-64.40. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Crude oil is having support at 4383-4343 while resistance at 4460-4497, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. BASE METALBase metals crashed as dollar index gain after Fed keeps rate unchanged. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, base metal prices settled weak in international market. 3M LME copper settled at $6233 per metric ton down by 2.80% from previous close. Base metal prices gain in early trade on Wednesday in international markets as trade talk begins between US-China and hope of positive outcomes. But prices crashed in evening session as US Federal reserve keeps key interest rates unchanged and Dollar index gain. Dovish Fed statement and lower inflation forecast supports dollar index and which puts pressure on global commodity prices specially base metals. We expect base metal prices remain volatile and any positive outcome of US-China trade talk will support prices at lower levels. Today, Copper is having support around 432-428 while resistance at 439-441. Nickel will trade in a range of 834-864, Zinc will trade in a range of 216-223, and Lead will trade in a range of 127-133 while Aluminium trade in a range of 144-150.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Copper is having support at 432 and 428 while resistance at 439 and 441, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. AGRI COMMODITYStrong rupee and weak global cues puts pressure on agri commodities. Trend volatile. ReviewTuesday, Soybean settled weak in domestic markets at 3685 per quintal with the loss of 0.41%. CBOT were settled at 842. Strength in rupee and weakness in global commodity markets put pressure on domestic agriculture commodities market. Dollar index also gain and which also puts pressure on global commodities. We expect agriculture commodities remain volatile and spice complex will get support at lower levels. Most of the commodities at NCDEX settled weak, Chana settled with the loss of 0.39%, Castor seed settled weak with the loss of 2.37%. RM Seed closed negative with the loss of 0.61%. Guar Seed settled positive with the gain of 0.54% while Guar Gum settled with the gain of 0.57%. Spices pack settled weak Coriander, Jeera and Turmeric settled with loss due to profit booking. Cotton seed oilcake closed positive with the gain of 1.22%. Refined Soyoil closed positive with the gain of 0.11%. We expect Refined Soyoil to trade in a range of 734-748.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Soybean is having support around 3660-3630 while resistance at 3710-3740, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 737-734 while resistance at 746-748 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news. Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
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Share Market Today - 3rd May 2019
MARKET RECAP Key Market Data PointsThe choppiness persisted on the D – street for fourth consecutive trading session yesterday. The domestic indices yet again remained stuck in a range throughout the session to close flat. Nifty spot sneaked just below 11700 mark during the first half but strong buying in the later part of the session helped the index to recover majority of its losses to rise towards 11800 zone. Eventually, the index closed in red with marginal loss. Meanwhile the Nifty bank still remained under pressure to close below 30K mark. As the day progressed, market breadth turned in the favour of declining counters which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, apart from NIFTY FIN SRV (+0.23%) and NIFTY REALTY (+0.12%) all the other group indices close in negative terrain. With regards to losers, NIFTY IT (-1.81%) and NIFTY MEDIA (-1.60%) stocks remained under pressure. From the F&O space, JETAIRWAYS (-22.22%), RPOWER (-11.38%) and ESCORTS (-8.37%) were the biggest laggards. MARKET OUTLOOK NIFTY Hourly CHART :Although volatile but the index Nifty oscillated in a broader range throughout the session. Despite such volatility, there are no major changes in price structure of Nifty spot. Thus we maintain our stance that if the support of 11550 is held then we might witness an extended relief rally going ahead. A convincing close above 11750 might pull the index towards all-time high or may be 12000 also. Although we are bullish for short term but we continue to maintain our medium term view that this rally should be used to book profits in long positions. In case of any downside, 11650 – 11550 levels are likely to attract buying interest in coming sessions. Due to election activities we expect some volatility and thus continue to advice traders to avoid overleveraged positions and maintain strict stop loss.Disclaimer)