Dollar/Rupee struggled in a small range yesterday and settled at 69.9025 compared to previous day close of 69.7275 levels. It jumped towards six-week high on Wednesday tracking strong greenback post US housing data while oil-related dollar demand In the local market aided.
Technical, Since 9 April 2019 USDINR 70.30 which is coincided with 8 April 2019 swing. Near term trend expect to remain indecisive unless pair gives a breakout of 70.30 and it may consolidate around 70.20-69.70 levels. On the upside, a break above 70.30 only would extend its gain and it may test next resistance 70.50-70.75.
Trend –Neutral
Pound traded lower against the US dollar during European trades Wednesday as hopes of a breakthrough in Brexit talks in the cross-party meet faded and UK Prime Minister Theresa May faced growing pressure to quit. Media reports showed that there has been growing pressure on PM May to find a solution or name a date for her to step down. Also, a report showed on Tuesday that PM May planned a new vote on her Brexit agreement next week, which has been already defeated three times, in an attempt to break the deadlock.
Technical, On the EOD chart, formation of doji candle stick is indicating for indecisiveness. Crucial support is seen at 90.85 and break below only could test next support 90.45. On the upside, resistance is seen at 91.45-91.85.
Trend –Volatile
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY/EARLIER TODAY
Australia's headline consumer price index (CPI) was flat in the March quarter, below market expectation of a 0.2% increase and touching its lowest since a negative reading in early 2016.The annual CPI surged 1.3% in the March quarter, from 1.8% rise in the previous quarter, and was the lowest since the September quarter of 2016
Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged as expected, but went more dovish with its language. The central bank has all but removed the probability of a rate hike in 2019 with monetary policy to remain accommodative
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 26-APR-2019
MARKET RECAP Key Market Data Points
The volatile series of April 2019 ended on a disappointing note during yesterday’s session. Overall, the index remained flat during the entire series. The domestic markets underwent sharp selloff during the second half to close near day’s low. The index Nifty spot almost retested the 11800 mark during the first half and suddenly suffered selling pressure and closed well below 11700 mark with a loss of around 85 points. Meanwhile, the Nifty Bank index lost around 300 points from its previous close. As the day progressed, market breadth turned in the favour of declining counters which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, apart from NIFTY REALTY (+0.32%) all the other group indices failed to close in positive terrain. From the losers, NIFTY METAL (-1.86%) and NIFTY PSU BANK (-1.56%) stocks remained under pressure. From the F&O space, INFRATEL (-10.33%), M&MFIN (-4.22%) and GODREJCP (-3.62%) were the biggest.
MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY DAILY CHART :
Once again the index is hovering above the crucial support of 11550. Thus we maintain our stance that if the support of 11550 is held then we might witness a relief rally going ahead. Now going ahead, a move above 11750 might full the index towards all-time high. Although we are bullish for short term but we continue to maintain our medium term view that this rally should be used to book profits in long positions.In case of any downside, 11620 – 11550 levels are likely to attract buying interest in coming sessions. Due to election activities we expect some volatility and thus continue to advice traders to avoid overleveraged positions and maintain strict stop loss.Disclaimer)
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 26-APR-2019
TECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRUSDINR (May Future)
Dollar/Rupee broke through the psychological 70.50 mark on Thursday helped by the overall dollar rally but further gains are likely to be capped by overseas fund inflows into local stocks. The Singapore dollar plunged as renewed growth slowdown concerns in Euro zone after a weak German economic data resulted in a greenback rally also added somewhat gain yesterday. Brent continued floating above $74.50 a barrel level, supported by tighter US sanctions against Iran and ongoing OPEC ledsupply cuts, dampening the impact of a sharp rise in crude oil inventories in the US.
Technical, USDINR was able to break its massive resistance 70.30 that has been holding since 9 April 2019. Near term trend expect to remain positive following the recent breakout and upside level could expect towards 70.70-70.85. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 70.20-70.00.
Trend –Neutral
GBPINR (May Future)
Pound traded at over two-month low against the US dollar Thursday following reports that British Prime Minister Theresa May plans to hold a vote on her Brexit legislation next week. UK prime minister May is set to let Members of Parliament (MPs) vote on a Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB), legislation which is separate to the withdrawal deal itself and must be passed for Brexit to be incorporated into UK law.
Technical, On the EOD chart, formation of doji candle stick is indicating for indecisiveness. Crucial support is seen at 90.85 and breakbelow only could test next support 90.45. On the upside, resistance is seen at 91.45-91.85.
Trend –Volatile
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY/ EARLIER TODAY
US initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped 37,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended April 20. The increase was the largest since early September 2017.
Japan unemployment rate rose to 2.5 percent, against economists' median forecast for 2.4 percent, figures from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed.
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS SCHEDULE TODAY
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)
Daily Currency Research Report – 25th April 2019
TECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIR
Dollar/Rupee struggled in a small range yesterday and settled at 69.9025 compared to previous day close of 69.7275 levels. It jumped towards six-week high on Wednesday tracking strong greenback post US housing data while oil-related dollar demand In the local market aided.
Technical, Since 9 April 2019 USDINR 70.30 which is coincided with 8 April 2019 swing. Near term trend expect to remain indecisive unless pair gives a breakout of 70.30 and it may consolidate around 70.20-69.70 levels. On the upside, a break above 70.30 only would extend its gain and it may test next resistance 70.50-70.75.
Trend –Neutral
Pound traded lower against the US dollar during European trades Wednesday as hopes of a breakthrough in Brexit talks in the cross-party meet faded and UK Prime Minister Theresa May faced growing pressure to quit. Media reports showed that there has been growing pressure on PM May to find a solution or name a date for her to step down. Also, a report showed on Tuesday that PM May planned a new vote on her Brexit agreement next week, which has been already defeated three times, in an attempt to break the deadlock.
Technical, On the EOD chart, formation of doji candle stick is indicating for indecisiveness. Crucial support is seen at 90.85 and break below only could test next support 90.45. On the upside, resistance is seen at 91.45-91.85.
Trend –Volatile
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY/EARLIER TODAY
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Source - investing.com, Reuters,forexlive & ticker news.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
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Share Market Today - 26th April 2019
MARKET RECAP Key Market Data Points The volatile series of April 2019 ended on a disappointing note during yesterday’s session. Overall, the index remained flat during the entire series. The domestic markets underwent sharp selloff during the second half to close near day’s low. The index Nifty spot almost retested the 11800 mark during the first half and suddenly suffered selling pressure and closed well below 11700 mark with a loss of around 85 points. Meanwhile, the Nifty Bank index lost around 300 points from its previous close. As the day progressed, market breadth turned in the favour of declining counters which indicates broad based selling. On the sectoral front, apart from NIFTY REALTY (+0.32%) all the other group indices failed to close in positive terrain. From the losers, NIFTY METAL (-1.86%) and NIFTY PSU BANK (-1.56%) stocks remained under pressure. From the F&O space, INFRATEL (-10.33%), M&MFIN (-4.22%) and GODREJCP (-3.62%) were the biggest. MARKET OUTLOOK NIFTY DAILY CHART : Once again the index is hovering above the crucial support of 11550. Thus we maintain our stance that if the support of 11550 is held then we might witness a relief rally going ahead. Now going ahead, a move above 11750 might full the index towards all-time high. Although we are bullish for short term but we continue to maintain our medium term view that this rally should be used to book profits in long positions.In case of any downside, 11620 – 11550 levels are likely to attract buying interest in coming sessions. Due to election activities we expect some volatility and thus continue to advice traders to avoid overleveraged positions and maintain strict stop loss.Disclaimer)
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Daily Currency Research Report – 26th April 2019
TECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRUSDINR (May Future) Dollar/Rupee broke through the psychological 70.50 mark on Thursday helped by the overall dollar rally but further gains are likely to be capped by overseas fund inflows into local stocks. The Singapore dollar plunged as renewed growth slowdown concerns in Euro zone after a weak German economic data resulted in a greenback rally also added somewhat gain yesterday. Brent continued floating above $74.50 a barrel level, supported by tighter US sanctions against Iran and ongoing OPEC ledsupply cuts, dampening the impact of a sharp rise in crude oil inventories in the US. Technical, USDINR was able to break its massive resistance 70.30 that has been holding since 9 April 2019. Near term trend expect to remain positive following the recent breakout and upside level could expect towards 70.70-70.85. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 70.20-70.00. Trend –Neutral GBPINR (May Future) Pound traded at over two-month low against the US dollar Thursday following reports that British Prime Minister Theresa May plans to hold a vote on her Brexit legislation next week. UK prime minister May is set to let Members of Parliament (MPs) vote on a Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB), legislation which is separate to the withdrawal deal itself and must be passed for Brexit to be incorporated into UK law. Technical, On the EOD chart, formation of doji candle stick is indicating for indecisiveness. Crucial support is seen at 90.85 and breakbelow only could test next support 90.45. On the upside, resistance is seen at 91.45-91.85. Trend –Volatile MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY/ EARLIER TODAY US initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped 37,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended April 20. The increase was the largest since early September 2017. Japan unemployment rate rose to 2.5 percent, against economists' median forecast for 2.4 percent, figures from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed. MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS SCHEDULE TODAY Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)