Dollar/rupee witnessed a cautious trade ahead of election results amid thin volumes and after hitting a day low 69.7025 settled at 69.7825 almost flat. Crude oil futures surged on escalating tensions between the US and Iran and on signs that producer club OPEC will continue withholding supply this year which supported it around 69.70 levels.
Technical, A strong break down of Ascending Channel on the EOD chart is creating probability for bearishness towards 68.80 and below. But, sentiment expects to remain cautious until the actual results scheduled for Thursday. On the downside, pair would need to break below 69.40 in order to extend recent loss else any rise towards 70-70.10 is expected to attract near term selling activities. On the upside, massive resistance is seen at 70.50-70.75
Trend –Volatile
GBPINR (MAY FUTURE)
Pound/Rupee made a new multiweek low 88.5725 and settled at 88.62 compared to previous day close of 88.9875 levels. It took deep on concerns Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal will not pass through the UK parliament while a strong dollar also weighing. Speculations over her replacement with a pro-Brexit PM eventually raises the risk of a no-deal Brexit and might continue fueling the GBP weakness, traders said.
Technical, Failure of trend reversal candle stick on the EOD chart is indicating for strong selling pressure in GBPINR. Pair unable to break its resistance 89.10 and retreated from 89.00. Today, a break below 88.40 would extend looses towards 88.00-87.50. Else, any rise towards 88.90-89.00 could attract selling pressure.
Trend –Volatile
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY / EARLIER TODAY
Japan's exports fell 2.4% in April from a year earlier, down for a fifth straight month. That compared with a 1.8% drop seen by analysts in a Reuters poll, and a similar 2.4% decline in March.
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS SCHEDULE TODAY
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 24-MAY-2019
NIFTY Daily CHART :
It was a historical session for the domestic markets since the benchmark indices posted one of the biggest single day gains of recent years. The markets started the session with a huge upside gap following the exit polls for election 2019 which indicated a clear majority for BJP led NDA. The index Nifty almost attempted for a new life high to close above 11800 mark with a massive gain of 421 points. Meanwhile, the Nifty Bank index surged more than 1300 points.
It was a broad based buying since morning which resulted in one sided market breadth in the favor of advancing counters. On the sectoral front, all the group indices closed in positive terrain. With regards to gainers, NIFTY PSU BANK (+7.88%) and NIFTY REALTY (+5.72%) stocks were the biggest performers. From the F&O space, ADANIENT (+29.42%), RPOWER (+19.17%) and RELINFRA (+14.98%) were the leaders.
MARKET OUTLOOK
As shown on the daily chart, NIFTY is on the verge of a fresh breakout from its all-time high of 11856. Going ahead, a move above the same might extend the gains towards 12000 and above levels. Traders holding long positions in index futures are advised to revise their stop loss below 11580 (in spot). In case of any consolidation or profit booking, 11750 – 11690 levels might act as intermediate support where the buying could remerge.
SBIN : WEEKLY CHART
Outlook : Bullish
Last week we recommended SBIN when it was trading near 315 mark. We also discussed about the conformation of ‘Symmetrical Triangle’ pattern on the weekly chart.
In line with our view the stock has already reached near the given target of 350.
However, at this juncture the stock is poised to clear all-time high. A close above 350 would open doors for 390.
Thus, keep holding longs in SBIN with a revised stop 324.
Disclaimer)
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 28-MAY-2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELSCROSS CURRENCY UPDATEUSDINR 29 MAY 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UPDATE
USDINR (May Future)
Dollar/rupee took upside momentum from the day low 69.3825 in line with dollar rally and settled at 70.0350 levels. The US dollar rallied against its major counterparts as escalating US-China trade disputes damaged the prospects of global growth,prompting global equities selloff and safe haven buying into the US currency. However, BJP government was set to return with a comfortable majority and more than 5.50% has control further gain in USDINR.Technical, after hitting a day low 69.3825, USDINR rebounded more than 70 paisa. However, pair yet trading below its immediate resistance 70.10. In near term a break above 70.10 only would create probability for momentum gain towards 70.50and above, else it expect to retreated towards 69.65-69.40 again.Trend –VolatileGBPINR (May Future)
Pound/Rupee slumped to an over five-month low 87.79 on Thursday as worries about a no-deal Brexit deepened while the broadbased dollar strength on the back of Sin-US trade war further fuelled the sterling selloff. Howerver due to weakness in Rupee pair rebounded and settled at 88.5750 compared to privious close of 88.3225. Another factor weighing on the sterling is the overall dollar strength.Technical, after hitting a new multi week low 87.79 GBPINR saw sharp rebound and settled at 88.5750. Intraday price action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick which is indicating for indecisiveness among Pound traders. On the upside, resistance is seen at 89.15 and break above only will expect to test 89.55-89.80. Else, any rise towards 88.80-88.90 could attract selling pressure for the target 88.00.Trend –BearishMajor Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today
Eurozone Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which is considered a good guide to economic health, only nudged up to 51.6 this month from a final April reading of 51.5, below the median expectation in a Reuters poll for 51.7
German business climate index fell to 97.9 from a confirmed 99.2 in the previous month. The May reading compared with a consensus forecast for 99.1
Germany's manufacturing PMI by Markit came in at 44.3 for May from the April reading of 44.4 when the consensus was for a rise to 44.8, data showed Thursday
US new home sales dropped 6.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 673,000 units last month. March's sales pace was revised up to 723,000 units, the highest level since October 2007, from the previously reported 692,000 units
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Source - investing.com, Reuters,forexlive & ticker news.Click Here to Download the ReportDisclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)
Daily Currency Research Report – 22nd May 2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELS
CROSS CURRENCY UPDATE
USDINR 29 MAY 2019 EXPIRY OPTION
RBI REFERENCE RATE (MAY 21 2019)
USDINR (MAY FUTURE)
Dollar/rupee witnessed a cautious trade ahead of election results amid thin volumes and after hitting a day low 69.7025 settled at 69.7825 almost flat. Crude oil futures surged on escalating tensions between the US and Iran and on signs that producer club OPEC will continue withholding supply this year which supported it around 69.70 levels.
Technical, A strong break down of Ascending Channel on the EOD chart is creating probability for bearishness towards 68.80 and below. But, sentiment expects to remain cautious until the actual results scheduled for Thursday. On the downside, pair would need to break below 69.40 in order to extend recent loss else any rise towards 70-70.10 is expected to attract near term selling activities. On the upside, massive resistance is seen at 70.50-70.75
Trend –Volatile
GBPINR (MAY FUTURE)
Pound/Rupee made a new multiweek low 88.5725 and settled at 88.62 compared to previous day close of 88.9875 levels. It took deep on concerns Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal will not pass through the UK parliament while a strong dollar also weighing. Speculations over her replacement with a pro-Brexit PM eventually raises the risk of a no-deal Brexit and might continue fueling the GBP weakness, traders said.
Technical, Failure of trend reversal candle stick on the EOD chart is indicating for strong selling pressure in GBPINR. Pair unable to break its resistance 89.10 and retreated from 89.00. Today, a break below 88.40 would extend looses towards 88.00-87.50. Else, any rise towards 88.90-89.00 could attract selling pressure.
Trend –Volatile
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY / EARLIER TODAY
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS SCHEDULE TODAY
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
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Share Market Today - 21st May 2019
NIFTY Daily CHART : It was a historical session for the domestic markets since the benchmark indices posted one of the biggest single day gains of recent years. The markets started the session with a huge upside gap following the exit polls for election 2019 which indicated a clear majority for BJP led NDA. The index Nifty almost attempted for a new life high to close above 11800 mark with a massive gain of 421 points. Meanwhile, the Nifty Bank index surged more than 1300 points. It was a broad based buying since morning which resulted in one sided market breadth in the favor of advancing counters. On the sectoral front, all the group indices closed in positive terrain. With regards to gainers, NIFTY PSU BANK (+7.88%) and NIFTY REALTY (+5.72%) stocks were the biggest performers. From the F&O space, ADANIENT (+29.42%), RPOWER (+19.17%) and RELINFRA (+14.98%) were the leaders. MARKET OUTLOOK As shown on the daily chart, NIFTY is on the verge of a fresh breakout from its all-time high of 11856. Going ahead, a move above the same might extend the gains towards 12000 and above levels. Traders holding long positions in index futures are advised to revise their stop loss below 11580 (in spot). In case of any consolidation or profit booking, 11750 – 11690 levels might act as intermediate support where the buying could remerge. SBIN : WEEKLY CHART Outlook : Bullish Last week we recommended SBIN when it was trading near 315 mark. We also discussed about the conformation of ‘Symmetrical Triangle’ pattern on the weekly chart. In line with our view the stock has already reached near the given target of 350. However, at this juncture the stock is poised to clear all-time high. A close above 350 would open doors for 390. Thus, keep holding longs in SBIN with a revised stop 324. Disclaimer)
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Daily Currency Research Report – 24th May 2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELSCROSS CURRENCY UPDATEUSDINR 29 MAY 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UPDATE USDINR (May Future) Dollar/rupee took upside momentum from the day low 69.3825 in line with dollar rally and settled at 70.0350 levels. The US dollar rallied against its major counterparts as escalating US-China trade disputes damaged the prospects of global growth,prompting global equities selloff and safe haven buying into the US currency. However, BJP government was set to return with a comfortable majority and more than 5.50% has control further gain in USDINR.Technical, after hitting a day low 69.3825, USDINR rebounded more than 70 paisa. However, pair yet trading below its immediate resistance 70.10. In near term a break above 70.10 only would create probability for momentum gain towards 70.50and above, else it expect to retreated towards 69.65-69.40 again.Trend –VolatileGBPINR (May Future) Pound/Rupee slumped to an over five-month low 87.79 on Thursday as worries about a no-deal Brexit deepened while the broadbased dollar strength on the back of Sin-US trade war further fuelled the sterling selloff. Howerver due to weakness in Rupee pair rebounded and settled at 88.5750 compared to privious close of 88.3225. Another factor weighing on the sterling is the overall dollar strength.Technical, after hitting a new multi week low 87.79 GBPINR saw sharp rebound and settled at 88.5750. Intraday price action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick which is indicating for indecisiveness among Pound traders. On the upside, resistance is seen at 89.15 and break above only will expect to test 89.55-89.80. Else, any rise towards 88.80-88.90 could attract selling pressure for the target 88.00.Trend –BearishMajor Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today Eurozone Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which is considered a good guide to economic health, only nudged up to 51.6 this month from a final April reading of 51.5, below the median expectation in a Reuters poll for 51.7 German business climate index fell to 97.9 from a confirmed 99.2 in the previous month. The May reading compared with a consensus forecast for 99.1 Germany's manufacturing PMI by Markit came in at 44.3 for May from the April reading of 44.4 when the consensus was for a rise to 44.8, data showed Thursday US new home sales dropped 6.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 673,000 units last month. March's sales pace was revised up to 723,000 units, the highest level since October 2007, from the previously reported 692,000 units Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Source - investing.com, Reuters,forexlive & ticker news.Click Here to Download the ReportDisclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)