Dollar/rupee struggled for direction amid US and China trade war jitters. Pair retreated towards day low 70.2950 as trade tensions between the US and China seemed easing. Risk-sentiments took a breather after US President Donald Trump's reference to the US-China trade war as a "little squabble". However, negative sentiment in local share market witnessed bounce back and it settled at 70.4350 compared to previous day close of 70.5875 levels.
Technical, Dollar/Rupee witnessed downside consolidation around 70.30-70.50 levels and settled at 70.4325 levels. On the EOD chart, formation of high wave candle stick is indicating for indecisiveness in near term. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 70.20 and break below only will expect to test 69.90-69.75, else any dip towards 70.25-70.30 may attract near term buying activities for the target 70.65-70.75.
Trend –Neutral to bullish
GBPINR (May Future)
Pound/Rupee traded lower against the US dollar. The greenback surged against its major counterparts after comments from senior Federal Reserve officials playing down the likelihood of interest rate cuts.
Technical, GBPINR made a high 91.19 and retreated towards 90.8075 before closing at 90.96 levels. On the EOD chart, pair failed to hold above its massive resistance 91.70 which is coincided with triangle breakout which is creating probability for bearishness in near term. However, a Brexit jitter is not over yet which may hold indecisiveness in the Pound. On the downside support is seen at 90.80 and break below will expect to test 90.50-90.10.
Trend –Volatile
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today
Eurostat said the economy of the 19 countries sharing the euro expanded by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the January-March period, the same as its initial estimate, after 0.2% growth in the last three months of 2018.
Australian Bureau of Statistics showed wage price index grew 0.5% in the first quarter when the market was expecting a faster growth rate.
German GDP growth rose to 0.4% during the quarter, up from 0% at the end of 2018
US retail sales declined 0.2% after a 1.7% increase the prior month that was the strongest gain since 2017, according to Commerce Department figures released Wednesday.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 21-MAY-2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELSCROSS CURRENCY UPDATEUSDINR 29 MAY, 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UDPATERBI REFERENCE RATE (13 MAY 2019)USDINR (May Future)Dollar/rupee retreated from the day high 70.70 and settled at 70.5650. Pair faced slightly pressure after local shares rebounded which reduced somewhat fears of FII outflows. However, US-China trade tensions hold it on higher side. Further, Crude oil futures dropped as concerns over trade tensions between US and China increased after China announced retaliating measures. China on Monday announced it would impose higher tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods following Washington's decision lastweek to hike its own levies on $200 billion in Chinese imports.
Technical, After hitting a day high 70.70, Dollar/Rupee witnessed consolidation around 70.45-70.55 levels. On the EOD chart, pair trading near to its massive resistance 70.75 and break above will confirm the bullish move towards 71.00-71.20. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 70.10-69.80.
Trend –Bullish
GBPINR (May Future)Pound/Rupee traded lower against the US dollar Tuesday as wage growth in UK cooled for the second straight month. Average earnings growth slowed to 3.2%, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter, data released by the Office for National Statistics showed. Technical, GBPINR made a high 91.73 and retreated towards 91.2025 before closing at 91.4075 levels. On the EOD chart, pair yet trading above its recent breakout which creating probability for bullish trend in near term. However, latest on the Brexit front is that there are whispers of Theresa May saying that she will not sign up for permanent customs union may witnessed volatility in the pair.On the downside support is seen at 90.80-90.35.
Trend –Bullish
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today
India's WPI inflation stood at 3.07% in April vs 3.18% in March.
Eurostat said output in the 19 countries sharing the euro dropped by 0.3% on the month, in line with market expectations, and by 0.6% year-on-year.
Germany May ZEW survey current situation 8.2 vs 6.3 expected
Eurozone March industrial production -0.3% vs -0.3% m/m expected
China Growth in industrial output slowed more than expected to 5.4 percent in April from a year earlier, pulling back from a surprising strong 4-1/2 year high of 8.5% in March.
China Fixed-asset investment growth slowed to 6.1% in the first four months of this year. Analyst polled by Reuters had expected it to rise 6.4%, picking up from 6.3% in the first quarter of this year.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negativeindicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.Click Here to Download the ReportDisclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 21-MAY-2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELSCROSS CURRENCY UPDATEUSDINR 29 May 2019 Expiry Option UpdateUSDINR (May Future)Dollar/rupee retreated 0.45% yesterday and settled at 70.1375 compared to previous day close of 70.4550. Pair drop towards 70.0825 low as improved risk appetite lowered demand for the greenback which was already pressured by weak data from theUS overnight. The US-China trade tension escalated after President Trump declared a national emergency over any threats against American technology.Technical, Dollar/Rupee retreated from the day high 70.4225 and settled at 70.1475 levels. On the EOD chart, pair trading on verge of crucial support 70.08 which is coincided with 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its 28 FEB 2019-19 March 2019. Today,break below 70.08 would extend recent loss and it may test 69.90. Failure of the break may witness recovery towards 70.55 again.Trend –Volatile
GBPINR (May Future)
Pound/Rupee plunged more than 1% on fear that Prime Minister Theresa May's proposed Brexit deal may be voted down again next month. Also, May will face calls later in the day from her MPs in the Conservative Party's 1922 Committee where she is expected to be asked to set a clear date for her departure and could be warned that she faces a confidence vote next month.Technical, GBPINR has broken its crucial support 90.80 on the EOD chart and after testing day low 89.9875 settled at 89.99 levels. Formation of long bearish candle stick along with recent break down is creating probability for bearish move towards 89.50-89.00. However, a Brexit jitter is not over yet which may hold indecisiveness in the Pound. On the upside, resistance is seen at 90.65-91.20.Trend –Volatile
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today
Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that the unemployment rate rose for a second straight month to 5.2%, its highest since August 2018, when market expected a rate of 5.1%.
Eurozone 28-nation bloc's surplus with the United States slipped to 33.9 billion euros ($38.0 billion) in Jan-March 2019 from 36.2 billion euros in the same period of 2018, EU statistics office Eurostat reported.
US Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended May 11, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Data for the prior week was unrevised.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule todayClick here to Download the ReportDisclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)
Daily Currency Research Report – 16th May 2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELS
CROSS CURRENCY UPDATE
USDINR 29 MAY 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UDPATE
USDINR (May Future)
Dollar/rupee struggled for direction amid US and China trade war jitters. Pair retreated towards day low 70.2950 as trade tensions between the US and China seemed easing. Risk-sentiments took a breather after US President Donald Trump's
reference to the US-China trade war as a "little squabble". However, negative sentiment in local share market witnessed bounce back and it settled at 70.4350 compared to previous day close of 70.5875 levels.
Technical, Dollar/Rupee witnessed downside consolidation around 70.30-70.50 levels and settled at 70.4325 levels. On the EOD chart, formation of high wave candle stick is indicating for indecisiveness in near term. On the downside, crucial support is
seen at 70.20 and break below only will expect to test 69.90-69.75, else any dip towards 70.25-70.30 may attract near term buying activities for the target 70.65-70.75.
Trend –Neutral to bullish
GBPINR (May Future)
Pound/Rupee traded lower against the US dollar. The greenback surged against its major counterparts after comments from senior Federal Reserve officials playing down the likelihood of interest rate cuts.
Technical, GBPINR made a high 91.19 and retreated towards 90.8075 before closing at 90.96 levels. On the EOD chart, pair failed to hold above its massive resistance 91.70 which is coincided with triangle breakout which is creating probability for bearishness in near term. However, a Brexit jitter is not over yet which may hold indecisiveness in the Pound. On the downside support is seen at 90.80 and break below will expect to test 90.50-90.10.
Trend –Volatile
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Click Here to Download the Report
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
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Daily Currency Research Report – 15th May 2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELSCROSS CURRENCY UPDATEUSDINR 29 MAY, 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UDPATERBI REFERENCE RATE (13 MAY 2019)USDINR (May Future)Dollar/rupee retreated from the day high 70.70 and settled at 70.5650. Pair faced slightly pressure after local shares rebounded which reduced somewhat fears of FII outflows. However, US-China trade tensions hold it on higher side. Further, Crude oil futures dropped as concerns over trade tensions between US and China increased after China announced retaliating measures. China on Monday announced it would impose higher tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods following Washington's decision lastweek to hike its own levies on $200 billion in Chinese imports. Technical, After hitting a day high 70.70, Dollar/Rupee witnessed consolidation around 70.45-70.55 levels. On the EOD chart, pair trading near to its massive resistance 70.75 and break above will confirm the bullish move towards 71.00-71.20. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 70.10-69.80. Trend –Bullish GBPINR (May Future)Pound/Rupee traded lower against the US dollar Tuesday as wage growth in UK cooled for the second straight month. Average earnings growth slowed to 3.2%, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter, data released by the Office for National Statistics showed. Technical, GBPINR made a high 91.73 and retreated towards 91.2025 before closing at 91.4075 levels. On the EOD chart, pair yet trading above its recent breakout which creating probability for bullish trend in near term. However, latest on the Brexit front is that there are whispers of Theresa May saying that she will not sign up for permanent customs union may witnessed volatility in the pair.On the downside support is seen at 90.80-90.35. Trend –Bullish Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today India's WPI inflation stood at 3.07% in April vs 3.18% in March. Eurostat said output in the 19 countries sharing the euro dropped by 0.3% on the month, in line with market expectations, and by 0.6% year-on-year. Germany May ZEW survey current situation 8.2 vs 6.3 expected Eurozone March industrial production -0.3% vs -0.3% m/m expected China Growth in industrial output slowed more than expected to 5.4 percent in April from a year earlier, pulling back from a surprising strong 4-1/2 year high of 8.5% in March. China Fixed-asset investment growth slowed to 6.1% in the first four months of this year. Analyst polled by Reuters had expected it to rise 6.4%, picking up from 6.3% in the first quarter of this year. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negativeindicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.Click Here to Download the ReportDisclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)
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Daily Currency Research Report – 17th May 2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELSCROSS CURRENCY UPDATEUSDINR 29 May 2019 Expiry Option UpdateUSDINR (May Future)Dollar/rupee retreated 0.45% yesterday and settled at 70.1375 compared to previous day close of 70.4550. Pair drop towards 70.0825 low as improved risk appetite lowered demand for the greenback which was already pressured by weak data from theUS overnight. The US-China trade tension escalated after President Trump declared a national emergency over any threats against American technology.Technical, Dollar/Rupee retreated from the day high 70.4225 and settled at 70.1475 levels. On the EOD chart, pair trading on verge of crucial support 70.08 which is coincided with 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its 28 FEB 2019-19 March 2019. Today,break below 70.08 would extend recent loss and it may test 69.90. Failure of the break may witness recovery towards 70.55 again.Trend –Volatile GBPINR (May Future) Pound/Rupee plunged more than 1% on fear that Prime Minister Theresa May's proposed Brexit deal may be voted down again next month. Also, May will face calls later in the day from her MPs in the Conservative Party's 1922 Committee where she is expected to be asked to set a clear date for her departure and could be warned that she faces a confidence vote next month.Technical, GBPINR has broken its crucial support 90.80 on the EOD chart and after testing day low 89.9875 settled at 89.99 levels. Formation of long bearish candle stick along with recent break down is creating probability for bearish move towards 89.50-89.00. However, a Brexit jitter is not over yet which may hold indecisiveness in the Pound. On the upside, resistance is seen at 90.65-91.20.Trend –Volatile Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that the unemployment rate rose for a second straight month to 5.2%, its highest since August 2018, when market expected a rate of 5.1%. Eurozone 28-nation bloc's surplus with the United States slipped to 33.9 billion euros ($38.0 billion) in Jan-March 2019 from 36.2 billion euros in the same period of 2018, EU statistics office Eurostat reported. US Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended May 11, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Data for the prior week was unrevised. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule todayClick here to Download the ReportDisclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)