Dollar/rupee retreated from the day high 70.70 and settled at 70.5650. Pair faced slightly pressure after local shares rebounded which reduced somewhat fears of FII outflows. However, US-China trade tensions hold it on higher side. Further, Crude oil futures dropped as concerns over trade tensions between US and China increased after China announced retaliating measures. China on Monday announced it would impose higher tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods following Washington's decision last week to hike its own levies on $200 billion in Chinese imports.
Technical, After hitting a day high 70.70, Dollar/Rupee witnessed consolidation around 70.45-70.55 levels. On the EOD chart, pair trading near to its massive resistance 70.75 and break above will confirm the bullish move towards 71.00-71.20. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 70.10-69.80.
Trend –Bullish
GBPINR (May Future)
Pound/Rupee traded lower against the US dollar Tuesday as wage growth in UK cooled for the second straight month. Average earnings growth slowed to 3.2%, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter, data released by the Office for National Statistics showed. Technical, GBPINR made a high 91.73 and retreated towards 91.2025 before closing at 91.4075 levels. On the EOD chart, pair yet trading above its recent breakout which creating probability for bullish trend in near term. However, latest on the Brexit front is that there are whispers of Theresa May saying that she will not sign up for permanent customs union may witnessed volatility in the pair. On the downside support is seen at 90.80-90.35.
Trend –Bullish
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today
India's WPI inflation stood at 3.07% in April vs 3.18% in March.
Eurostat said output in the 19 countries sharing the euro dropped by 0.3% on the month, in line with market expectations, and by 0.6% year-on-year.
Germany May ZEW survey current situation 8.2 vs 6.3 expected
Eurozone March industrial production -0.3% vs -0.3% m/m expected
China Growth in industrial output slowed more than expected to 5.4 percent in April from a year earlier, pulling back from a surprising strong 4-1/2 year high of 8.5% in March.
China Fixed-asset investment growth slowed to 6.1% in the first four months of this year. Analyst polled by Reuters had expected it to rise 6.4%, picking up from 6.3% in the first quarter of this year.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 20-MAY-2019
BULLION Gold prices slide by 1% on upbeat U.S. economic data. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, both the precious metals were traded sharply negative in international markets. Gold settled at $1286.10 per troy ounce down by 0.90% while silver settled at $14.49 per troy ounce down by 2.16%. Domestic markets were also settled negative. Gold settled at Rs.31976 per 10 gram with the loss of 0.88% and MCX Silver settled at 36859 per 1 kilogram with the loss of 1.75%. Gold and silver prices slide in yesterday’s trade after series of upbeat U.S. economic data and strength in dollar index. The Commerce Department’s latest report showed that U.S. housing starts rose 5.7% in to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.24 million units in April. The data was slightly better than expected with consensus forecasts called for starts to be around 1.21 million. Unemployment claims also fell down to 212000 from 228000 and manufacturing index rose to 16.6 from 8.5 earlier. We expect gold and bullion prices remain in pressure and will get support from middle east tensions at lower levels. Gold is having support at $1281-1276 and resistance at $1292-1296. Silver is having support at $14.34-14.20 while resistance at $14.66-14.80. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Today, Gold is having support at 31822-31667 while resistance at 32220-32463, silver is having support at 36611-36364 and resistance at 37328-37798. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
ENERGY Crude oil gain third day in a row over middle east tensions. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, Crude oil prices gain in international market WTI Crude settled at $62.87 while Brent settled at $72.62 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled positive at 4420 per barrel with the gain of 1.24%. Oil prices jumped more than 1% on Thursday as tensions in the Middle East grew, with a Saudi-led coalition launching air strikes in retaliation for recent attacks on its oil infrastructure. The Saudi-led military coalition in Yemen carried out several air strikes on the Houthi-held capital Sanaa on Thursday after the Iranian-aligned movement claimed responsibility for drone attacks on two Saudi oil pumping stations earlier in the week. Saudi Arabia’s deputy defense minister accused Iran of ordering the drone attack on the pumping stations. It comes after attacks on four oil tankers off the coast of United Arab Emirates on Sunday. Escalation of tensions in middle east supporting crude oil prices. We expect crude oil prices remain volatile and will face steep resistance around $63.50-64 zone. Crude oil is having support at $62.40-61.80 and resistance at $63.20-63.80. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Crude oil is having support at 4369-4319 while resistance at 4461-4503, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
BASE METALBase metals trade steady; China supply concern help Aluminium to gain. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, base metals trade steady in international market. 3M LME copper settled at $6082 per metric ton up by 0.05% from previous close. Base metals trade steady in yesterday’s trading session due to supply concern in China and upbeat U.S. economic data. Aluminium prices climbed to two-week highs on Thursday after news of production shutdowns at one of the country's biggest smelters fuelled worries about supplies from top producer China. Aluminium prices have been lifted by output cuts, due to regulatory, environmental reasons. Xinfa Group, one of China's biggest aluminium smelters, is closing all production lines on its 2.8 million tons per year alumina refinery in Shanxi for an unspecified period amid an environmental dispute, causing alumina prices to spike. We expect base metal prices will get support from positive economic data but trade concern between US-China will limits sharp gain in the prices. Today, Copper is having support around 426-424 while resistance at 431-434. Nickel will trade in a range of 844-872, Zinc will trade in a range of 215-220, and Lead will trade in a range of 126-130 while Aluminium trade in a range of 148-153.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Copper is having support at 426 and 424 while resistance at 431 and 434, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
AGRI COMMODITYSpices complex gain on lower monsoon expectations; soybean cools down. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, Soybean June future settled weak in domestic markets at 3756 per quintal with the loss of 0.98%. CBOT were settled at 841. Soybean prices seen some profit booking on Thursday due to strength in rupee and lower demand on higher prices. Spices pack shows solid comeback and gain around 2% on lower monsoon expectations and revival in demand on export prospects. Other commodities also shows positive trend at NCDEX, Chana June future settled with the gain of 2.14%, Castor seed settled positive with the gain of 0.93%. RM Seed closed positive with the gain of 0.56%. Guar Seed settled negative with the loss of 0.19% while Guar Gum settled with the loss of 0.49%. Spices pack settled positive; Coriander, Jeera and Turmeric settled with solid gain. Cotton seed oilcake closed positive with the gain of 0.43%. Cotton prices rebound on trade talk hopes and closed positive. Refined Soyoil closed positive with the gain of 0.63%. We expect Refined Soyoil June to trade in a range of 740-754. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Soybean is having support around 3720-3700 while resistance at 3780-3800, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 742-740 while resistance at 752-754 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news.
Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 21-MAY-2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELSCROSS CURRENCY UPDATEUSDINR 29 MAY 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UDPATEUSDINR (May Future)Dollar/rupee struggled for direction amid US and China trade war jitters. Pair retreated towards day low 70.2950 as trade tensions between the US and China seemed easing. Risk-sentiments took a breather after US President Donald Trump'sreference to the US-China trade war as a "little squabble". However, negative sentiment in local share market witnessed bounce back and it settled at 70.4350 compared to previous day close of 70.5875 levels.Technical, Dollar/Rupee witnessed downside consolidation around 70.30-70.50 levels and settled at 70.4325 levels. On the EOD chart, formation of high wave candle stick is indicating for indecisiveness in near term. On the downside, crucial support isseen at 70.20 and break below only will expect to test 69.90-69.75, else any dip towards 70.25-70.30 may attract near term buying activities for the target 70.65-70.75.Trend –Neutral to bullish
GBPINR (May Future)Pound/Rupee traded lower against the US dollar. The greenback surged against its major counterparts after comments from senior Federal Reserve officials playing down the likelihood of interest rate cuts. Technical, GBPINR made a high 91.19 and retreated towards 90.8075 before closing at 90.96 levels. On the EOD chart, pair failed to hold above its massive resistance 91.70 which is coincided with triangle breakout which is creating probability for bearishness in near term. However, a Brexit jitter is not over yet which may hold indecisiveness in the Pound. On the downside support is seen at 90.80 and break below will expect to test 90.50-90.10.Trend –Volatile
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today
Eurostat said the economy of the 19 countries sharing the euro expanded by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the January-March period, the same as its initial estimate, after 0.2% growth in the last three months of 2018.
Australian Bureau of Statistics showed wage price index grew 0.5% in the first quarter when the market was expecting a faster growth rate.
German GDP growth rose to 0.4% during the quarter, up from 0% at the end of 2018
US retail sales declined 0.2% after a 1.7% increase the prior month that was the strongest gain since 2017, according to Commerce Department figures released Wednesday.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule todayClick Here to Download the ReportDisclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)
Daily Currency Research Report – 15th May 2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELS
CROSS CURRENCY UPDATE
USDINR 29 MAY, 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UDPATE
RBI REFERENCE RATE (13 MAY 2019)
USDINR (May Future)
Dollar/rupee retreated from the day high 70.70 and settled at 70.5650. Pair faced slightly pressure after local shares rebounded which reduced somewhat fears of FII outflows. However, US-China trade tensions hold it on higher side. Further, Crude oil futures dropped as concerns over trade tensions between US and China increased after China announced retaliating measures. China on Monday announced it would impose higher tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods following Washington's decision last
week to hike its own levies on $200 billion in Chinese imports.
Technical, After hitting a day high 70.70, Dollar/Rupee witnessed consolidation around 70.45-70.55 levels. On the EOD chart, pair trading near to its massive resistance 70.75 and break above will confirm the bullish move towards 71.00-71.20. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 70.10-69.80.
Trend –Bullish
GBPINR (May Future)
Pound/Rupee traded lower against the US dollar Tuesday as wage growth in UK cooled for the second straight month. Average earnings growth slowed to 3.2%, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter, data released by the Office for National Statistics showed. Technical, GBPINR made a high 91.73 and retreated towards 91.2025 before closing at 91.4075 levels. On the EOD chart, pair yet trading above its recent breakout which creating probability for bullish trend in near term. However, latest on the Brexit front is that there are whispers of Theresa May saying that she will not sign up for permanent customs union may witnessed volatility in the pair.
On the downside support is seen at 90.80-90.35.
Trend –Bullish
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative
indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Click Here to Download the Report
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
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Daily Commodity Research Report – 17th May 2019
BULLION Gold prices slide by 1% on upbeat U.S. economic data. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, both the precious metals were traded sharply negative in international markets. Gold settled at $1286.10 per troy ounce down by 0.90% while silver settled at $14.49 per troy ounce down by 2.16%. Domestic markets were also settled negative. Gold settled at Rs.31976 per 10 gram with the loss of 0.88% and MCX Silver settled at 36859 per 1 kilogram with the loss of 1.75%. Gold and silver prices slide in yesterday’s trade after series of upbeat U.S. economic data and strength in dollar index. The Commerce Department’s latest report showed that U.S. housing starts rose 5.7% in to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.24 million units in April. The data was slightly better than expected with consensus forecasts called for starts to be around 1.21 million. Unemployment claims also fell down to 212000 from 228000 and manufacturing index rose to 16.6 from 8.5 earlier. We expect gold and bullion prices remain in pressure and will get support from middle east tensions at lower levels. Gold is having support at $1281-1276 and resistance at $1292-1296. Silver is having support at $14.34-14.20 while resistance at $14.66-14.80. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Today, Gold is having support at 31822-31667 while resistance at 32220-32463, silver is having support at 36611-36364 and resistance at 37328-37798. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. ENERGY Crude oil gain third day in a row over middle east tensions. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, Crude oil prices gain in international market WTI Crude settled at $62.87 while Brent settled at $72.62 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled positive at 4420 per barrel with the gain of 1.24%. Oil prices jumped more than 1% on Thursday as tensions in the Middle East grew, with a Saudi-led coalition launching air strikes in retaliation for recent attacks on its oil infrastructure. The Saudi-led military coalition in Yemen carried out several air strikes on the Houthi-held capital Sanaa on Thursday after the Iranian-aligned movement claimed responsibility for drone attacks on two Saudi oil pumping stations earlier in the week. Saudi Arabia’s deputy defense minister accused Iran of ordering the drone attack on the pumping stations. It comes after attacks on four oil tankers off the coast of United Arab Emirates on Sunday. Escalation of tensions in middle east supporting crude oil prices. We expect crude oil prices remain volatile and will face steep resistance around $63.50-64 zone. Crude oil is having support at $62.40-61.80 and resistance at $63.20-63.80. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Crude oil is having support at 4369-4319 while resistance at 4461-4503, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. BASE METALBase metals trade steady; China supply concern help Aluminium to gain. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, base metals trade steady in international market. 3M LME copper settled at $6082 per metric ton up by 0.05% from previous close. Base metals trade steady in yesterday’s trading session due to supply concern in China and upbeat U.S. economic data. Aluminium prices climbed to two-week highs on Thursday after news of production shutdowns at one of the country's biggest smelters fuelled worries about supplies from top producer China. Aluminium prices have been lifted by output cuts, due to regulatory, environmental reasons. Xinfa Group, one of China's biggest aluminium smelters, is closing all production lines on its 2.8 million tons per year alumina refinery in Shanxi for an unspecified period amid an environmental dispute, causing alumina prices to spike. We expect base metal prices will get support from positive economic data but trade concern between US-China will limits sharp gain in the prices. Today, Copper is having support around 426-424 while resistance at 431-434. Nickel will trade in a range of 844-872, Zinc will trade in a range of 215-220, and Lead will trade in a range of 126-130 while Aluminium trade in a range of 148-153.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Copper is having support at 426 and 424 while resistance at 431 and 434, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. AGRI COMMODITYSpices complex gain on lower monsoon expectations; soybean cools down. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, Soybean June future settled weak in domestic markets at 3756 per quintal with the loss of 0.98%. CBOT were settled at 841. Soybean prices seen some profit booking on Thursday due to strength in rupee and lower demand on higher prices. Spices pack shows solid comeback and gain around 2% on lower monsoon expectations and revival in demand on export prospects. Other commodities also shows positive trend at NCDEX, Chana June future settled with the gain of 2.14%, Castor seed settled positive with the gain of 0.93%. RM Seed closed positive with the gain of 0.56%. Guar Seed settled negative with the loss of 0.19% while Guar Gum settled with the loss of 0.49%. Spices pack settled positive; Coriander, Jeera and Turmeric settled with solid gain. Cotton seed oilcake closed positive with the gain of 0.43%. Cotton prices rebound on trade talk hopes and closed positive. Refined Soyoil closed positive with the gain of 0.63%. We expect Refined Soyoil June to trade in a range of 740-754. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Soybean is having support around 3720-3700 while resistance at 3780-3800, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 742-740 while resistance at 752-754 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news. Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
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Daily Currency Research Report – 16th May 2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELSCROSS CURRENCY UPDATEUSDINR 29 MAY 2019 EXPIRY OPTION UDPATEUSDINR (May Future)Dollar/rupee struggled for direction amid US and China trade war jitters. Pair retreated towards day low 70.2950 as trade tensions between the US and China seemed easing. Risk-sentiments took a breather after US President Donald Trump'sreference to the US-China trade war as a "little squabble". However, negative sentiment in local share market witnessed bounce back and it settled at 70.4350 compared to previous day close of 70.5875 levels.Technical, Dollar/Rupee witnessed downside consolidation around 70.30-70.50 levels and settled at 70.4325 levels. On the EOD chart, formation of high wave candle stick is indicating for indecisiveness in near term. On the downside, crucial support isseen at 70.20 and break below only will expect to test 69.90-69.75, else any dip towards 70.25-70.30 may attract near term buying activities for the target 70.65-70.75.Trend –Neutral to bullish GBPINR (May Future)Pound/Rupee traded lower against the US dollar. The greenback surged against its major counterparts after comments from senior Federal Reserve officials playing down the likelihood of interest rate cuts. Technical, GBPINR made a high 91.19 and retreated towards 90.8075 before closing at 90.96 levels. On the EOD chart, pair failed to hold above its massive resistance 91.70 which is coincided with triangle breakout which is creating probability for bearishness in near term. However, a Brexit jitter is not over yet which may hold indecisiveness in the Pound. On the downside support is seen at 90.80 and break below will expect to test 90.50-90.10.Trend –Volatile Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today Eurostat said the economy of the 19 countries sharing the euro expanded by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the January-March period, the same as its initial estimate, after 0.2% growth in the last three months of 2018. Australian Bureau of Statistics showed wage price index grew 0.5% in the first quarter when the market was expecting a faster growth rate. German GDP growth rose to 0.4% during the quarter, up from 0% at the end of 2018 US retail sales declined 0.2% after a 1.7% increase the prior month that was the strongest gain since 2017, according to Commerce Department figures released Wednesday. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule todayClick Here to Download the ReportDisclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)