Dollar/rupee extended its recent gain and after testing day high 70.1950 settled at 70.1075 levels as concerns over escalating trade tension between the US-China supported safe haven demand for the dollar. Now, investors nervously await the start of two-day trade talks in Washington due later in the day to see if Chinese negotiators can convince the White House to back down on a threatened tariff hike due today. Local stocks ended at fresh two-month lows, their seventh straight session of decline also weighed on sentiment.
Technical, On the EOD chart, USDINR continued its recent bullish move. It jumped towards 70.1950 and formed a long bullish candle stick. Near term momentum looks positive following the recent breakout on the chart and next upside target expect to be 70.50 and above. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 69.80-69.55.
Trend –Neutral to positive
GBPINR (May Future)
Pound/Rupee remained under pressure on reports Brexit negotiation between the UK Conservatives and Labour parties may have collapsed. Both the Conservatives and Labour are attempting to agree on how the UK should leave the European Union (EU) - but with little signs of success. Reports showed that Labour Party negotiators have described the government as being disingenuous the matter of a customs union. Labour Party made the entry into a customs union as a red line, and according to reports, the Government is yet to move on the matter.
Technical, Since, 9 April 2019 GBPINR struggling to break its massive resistance 91.70 and consolidating in between 91.50-90.50 levels. In near term 91.70 will act as a massive resistance which is coincided with triangle resistance and break above will create probability for 2-3% sharp bullish move. Failure of the break only could witness consolidation towards 90.70-90.50 again.
Trend –Bullish above 91.70
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today
US goods trade deficit with China decreased 16.2 percent to $20.7 billion, the lowest level since March 2014, also as imports from the world's No. 2 economy fell 6.1 percent. Exports to China jumped 23.6 percent in March.
US Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 228,000 for the week ended May 4, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Data for the prior week was unrevised.
US producer price index for final demand increased 0.2 percent last month after jumping 0.6 percent in March. In the 12 months through April, the PPI increased 2.2 percent, matching March's rise.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 13-MAY-2019
MARKET RECAP AND OUTLOOK
The week kicked off on an extreme pessimistic note for the domestic markets following the plunge in world indices. The world markets corrected sharply on fears that the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China were on the verge of failure. As a result, the index Nifty spot remained in under pressure during all the sessions of the week to lose more than (-3.5%). Meanwhile the Nifty Bank index too lost more than (-3.0%) during the week. In this process, we witnessed heavy selling in individual stocks and that was reflected in volatility index VIX which surged more than 9% to close at three years high. On the sectoral front, none of the group indices managed to close in green. From the losers the NIFTY METAL (-6.77%) and NIFTY ENERGY (-6.48%) counters were the biggest laggards. Finally the range of 11550 – 11800 was breached decisively and the impact of the same was already witnessed where Nifty sneaked below 11300. In the coming week, 11200 might act as an intermediate support for the index since even the intraday charts looks exhausted. If the support is held then we expect a short covering move in the index. In such scenario, 11350 – 11550 might act as strong resistance for the index in the coming week. Traders can watch out to play for the bounce on the upside above11350. Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions.Click Here to Download the ReportDisclamier)
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 13-MAY-2019
BULLION Gold prices slightly up on trade war tensions between US-China. Trend volatile Review Friday, both the precious metals were traded flat to positive in international markets. Gold settled at $1286.70 per troy ounce up by 0.12% while silver settled at $14.78 per troy ounce up by 0.03%. Domestic markets were settled slightly negative due to strength in rupee. Gold settled at Rs.31904 per 10 gram with the loss of 0.04% and MCX Silver settled at 37354 per 1 kilogram with the loss of 0.12%. Gold prices traded range bound on Friday on trade war tensions between US-China and market is expecting some safe haven buying this week as there is no positive outcome of ongoing trade talk between US-China trade officials. U.S. increased trade tariff on Chinese imports from Friday and Chinas hints to retaliate the same. We expect gold will remain focus this week and if crossed $1292 will certainly test $1300 again. Gold is having support at $1278-1272 and resistance at $1292-1300. Silver is having support at $14.64-14.48 while resistance at $14.88-15.05. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Today, Gold is having support at 31790-31675 while resistance at 32011-32117, silver is having support at 37243-37133 and resistance at 37476-37599. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
ENERGY Crude oil settled flat; fear of China retaliate tariff will puts pressure. Trend volatile. Review Friday, Crude oil prices settled flat in international market WTI Crude settled at $61.73 while Brent settled at $70.80 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled negative at 4326 per barrel with the loss of 0.02%. Crude oil prices settled almost flat on Friday in international markets and lower crude oil inventory as reported by EIA on Wednesday is also not able to support prices in international markets. After U.S. President Donald Trump announced to impose higher tariff on Chinese imports from Friday, now China hints to retaliate the same. Global energy market is in fear if China retaliate and impose tariff on U.S. LNG imports will puts pressure on crude oil prices as China is one of the largest importer of U.S. LNG. China could shift from U.S. to Qatar, Russia and Australia. We expect ahead of trade tensions between US-China crude oil prices remain volatile and fear of lower global consumption due to trade war will also puts pressure on prices. Crude oil is having support at $61.40-60.80 and resistance at $62.50-63.10. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Crude oil is having support at 4303-4279 while resistance at 4356-4385, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
BASE METALBase metals rebound on hope of trade deal but traders still cautious. Trend volatile. ReviewFriday, base metal prices settled mixed in international market. 3M LME copper settled at $6148 per metric ton up by 0.11% from previous close. Copper and other industrial metals rebounded on Friday on hopes that a U.S.-China trade deal would be hammered out, but they remained vulnerable to further friction between the world's two biggest economies. Negotiators in Washington agreed to stay at the table for a second day on Friday even after the United States escalated a tariff war with China by increasing levies and Beijing threatened retaliation. The markets generally have been fairly sanguine about the prospects for a deal and that does leave some downside scope for the metals to be hit by further nasty surprises in coming days. We expect market remain volatile this week on statements on trade war from US-China. Today, Copper is having support around 430-428 while resistance at 434-436. Nickel will trade in a range of 824-848, Zinc will trade in a range of 212-218, and Lead will trade in a range of 125-130 while Aluminium trade in a range of 145-150.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Copper is having support at 430 and 428 while resistance at 434 and 436, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
AGRI COMMODITYAgri commodities settled mixed; USDA report will puts pressure on soybean . Trend volatile. ReviewFriday, Soybean settled positive in domestic markets at 3720 per quintal with the gain of 0.51%. CBOT were settled at 808. On Friday, agriculture commodities show mixed trend and some profit booking seen in spices complex while oil complex traded stable. After USDA monthly report CBOT shows weakness and we expect soybean will see some profit booking today. Ongoing trade war between US-China will also keeps agriculture commodities volatile. Mixed trend seen at NCDEX on Friday, Chana settled with the gain of 1.10%, Castor seed settled negative with the loss of 0.28%. RM Seed closed positive with the gain of 0.39%. Guar Seed settled negative with the loss of 0.44% while Guar Gum settled with the loss of 0.87%. Spices pack settled mixed Coriander and Turmeric seen profit booking while Jeera closed positive. Cotton seed oilcake closed positive with the gain of 1.22%. Investors are suggested to book profit in Cotton Seed oilcake around 2640. Refined Soyoil closed positive with the gain of 0.19%. We expect Refined Soyoil to trade in a range of 734-750. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Soybean is having support around 3690-3660 while resistance at 3740-3780, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 737-734 while resistance at 747-750 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.Click Here to Download the Report
News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news.
Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)
Daily Currency Research Report – 10th May 2019
CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELS
CROSS CURRENCY UPDATES
USDINR 29 MAY ,2019 EXPIRY OPTION UPDATE
TECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIR
USDINR (May Future)
Dollar/rupee extended its recent gain and after testing day high 70.1950 settled at 70.1075 levels as concerns over escalating trade tension between the US-China supported safe haven demand for the dollar. Now, investors nervously await the start of two-day trade talks in Washington due later in the day to see if Chinese negotiators can convince the White House to back down on a threatened tariff hike due today. Local stocks ended at fresh two-month lows, their seventh straight session of decline also weighed on sentiment.
Technical, On the EOD chart, USDINR continued its recent bullish move. It jumped towards 70.1950 and formed a long bullish candle stick. Near term momentum looks positive following the recent breakout on the chart and next upside target expect to be 70.50 and above. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 69.80-69.55.
Trend –Neutral to positive
GBPINR (May Future)
Pound/Rupee remained under pressure on reports Brexit negotiation between the UK Conservatives and Labour parties may have collapsed. Both the Conservatives and Labour are attempting to agree on how the UK should leave the European Union (EU) - but with little signs of success. Reports showed that Labour Party negotiators have described the government as being disingenuous the matter of a customs union. Labour Party made the entry into a customs union as a red line, and according to reports, the Government is yet to move on the matter.
Technical, Since, 9 April 2019 GBPINR struggling to break its massive resistance 91.70 and consolidating in between 91.50-90.50 levels. In near term 91.70 will act as a massive resistance which is coincided with triangle resistance and break above will create probability for 2-3% sharp bullish move. Failure of the break only could witness consolidation towards 90.70-90.50 again.
Trend –Bullish above 91.70
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative
indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Source - investing.com, Reuters,forexlive & ticker news.
Click Here to Download the Report
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
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Weekly BSE & NSE Gainers & Losers - 6th May to 10th May 2019
MARKET RECAP AND OUTLOOK The week kicked off on an extreme pessimistic note for the domestic markets following the plunge in world indices. The world markets corrected sharply on fears that the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China were on the verge of failure. As a result, the index Nifty spot remained in under pressure during all the sessions of the week to lose more than (-3.5%). Meanwhile the Nifty Bank index too lost more than (-3.0%) during the week. In this process, we witnessed heavy selling in individual stocks and that was reflected in volatility index VIX which surged more than 9% to close at three years high. On the sectoral front, none of the group indices managed to close in green. From the losers the NIFTY METAL (-6.77%) and NIFTY ENERGY (-6.48%) counters were the biggest laggards. Finally the range of 11550 – 11800 was breached decisively and the impact of the same was already witnessed where Nifty sneaked below 11300. In the coming week, 11200 might act as an intermediate support for the index since even the intraday charts looks exhausted. If the support is held then we expect a short covering move in the index. In such scenario, 11350 – 11550 might act as strong resistance for the index in the coming week. Traders can watch out to play for the bounce on the upside above11350. Overall, we expect the markets to turn more volatile in the coming weeks due to election results and hence advice traders to avoid over leveraged positions.Click Here to Download the ReportDisclamier)
Next Story
Daily Commodity Research Report – 13th May 2019
BULLION Gold prices slightly up on trade war tensions between US-China. Trend volatile Review Friday, both the precious metals were traded flat to positive in international markets. Gold settled at $1286.70 per troy ounce up by 0.12% while silver settled at $14.78 per troy ounce up by 0.03%. Domestic markets were settled slightly negative due to strength in rupee. Gold settled at Rs.31904 per 10 gram with the loss of 0.04% and MCX Silver settled at 37354 per 1 kilogram with the loss of 0.12%. Gold prices traded range bound on Friday on trade war tensions between US-China and market is expecting some safe haven buying this week as there is no positive outcome of ongoing trade talk between US-China trade officials. U.S. increased trade tariff on Chinese imports from Friday and Chinas hints to retaliate the same. We expect gold will remain focus this week and if crossed $1292 will certainly test $1300 again. Gold is having support at $1278-1272 and resistance at $1292-1300. Silver is having support at $14.64-14.48 while resistance at $14.88-15.05. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Today, Gold is having support at 31790-31675 while resistance at 32011-32117, silver is having support at 37243-37133 and resistance at 37476-37599. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. ENERGY Crude oil settled flat; fear of China retaliate tariff will puts pressure. Trend volatile. Review Friday, Crude oil prices settled flat in international market WTI Crude settled at $61.73 while Brent settled at $70.80 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled negative at 4326 per barrel with the loss of 0.02%. Crude oil prices settled almost flat on Friday in international markets and lower crude oil inventory as reported by EIA on Wednesday is also not able to support prices in international markets. After U.S. President Donald Trump announced to impose higher tariff on Chinese imports from Friday, now China hints to retaliate the same. Global energy market is in fear if China retaliate and impose tariff on U.S. LNG imports will puts pressure on crude oil prices as China is one of the largest importer of U.S. LNG. China could shift from U.S. to Qatar, Russia and Australia. We expect ahead of trade tensions between US-China crude oil prices remain volatile and fear of lower global consumption due to trade war will also puts pressure on prices. Crude oil is having support at $61.40-60.80 and resistance at $62.50-63.10. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Crude oil is having support at 4303-4279 while resistance at 4356-4385, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. BASE METALBase metals rebound on hope of trade deal but traders still cautious. Trend volatile. ReviewFriday, base metal prices settled mixed in international market. 3M LME copper settled at $6148 per metric ton up by 0.11% from previous close. Copper and other industrial metals rebounded on Friday on hopes that a U.S.-China trade deal would be hammered out, but they remained vulnerable to further friction between the world's two biggest economies. Negotiators in Washington agreed to stay at the table for a second day on Friday even after the United States escalated a tariff war with China by increasing levies and Beijing threatened retaliation. The markets generally have been fairly sanguine about the prospects for a deal and that does leave some downside scope for the metals to be hit by further nasty surprises in coming days. We expect market remain volatile this week on statements on trade war from US-China. Today, Copper is having support around 430-428 while resistance at 434-436. Nickel will trade in a range of 824-848, Zinc will trade in a range of 212-218, and Lead will trade in a range of 125-130 while Aluminium trade in a range of 145-150.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Copper is having support at 430 and 428 while resistance at 434 and 436, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. AGRI COMMODITYAgri commodities settled mixed; USDA report will puts pressure on soybean . Trend volatile. ReviewFriday, Soybean settled positive in domestic markets at 3720 per quintal with the gain of 0.51%. CBOT were settled at 808. On Friday, agriculture commodities show mixed trend and some profit booking seen in spices complex while oil complex traded stable. After USDA monthly report CBOT shows weakness and we expect soybean will see some profit booking today. Ongoing trade war between US-China will also keeps agriculture commodities volatile. Mixed trend seen at NCDEX on Friday, Chana settled with the gain of 1.10%, Castor seed settled negative with the loss of 0.28%. RM Seed closed positive with the gain of 0.39%. Guar Seed settled negative with the loss of 0.44% while Guar Gum settled with the loss of 0.87%. Spices pack settled mixed Coriander and Turmeric seen profit booking while Jeera closed positive. Cotton seed oilcake closed positive with the gain of 1.22%. Investors are suggested to book profit in Cotton Seed oilcake around 2640. Refined Soyoil closed positive with the gain of 0.19%. We expect Refined Soyoil to trade in a range of 734-750. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Soybean is having support around 3690-3660 while resistance at 3740-3780, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 737-734 while resistance at 747-750 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.Click Here to Download the Report News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news. Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)