Commodity Report 6th March 2020

Daily change & technical levels Scrip Close Change (%) R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 GOLD 43569 0.22 44032 43800 43547 43315 43062 SILVER 46683 0.66 47264 46974 46599 46309 45934 CRUDE 3507 1.45 3635 3571 3513 3449 3391 NG 134.10 0.30 139.00 136.50 134.20 131.70 129.40 ALUMINI 138.40 0.62 139.60 139.00 138.20 137.60 136.80 COPPER 428.55 0.68 431.65 430.10 428.35 426.80 425.05 LEADMINI 144.10 0.31 145.30 144.70 143.90 143.30 142.50 NICKEL 941.30 0.52 950.80 946.00 941.30 936.50 931.80 ZINCMINI 155.30 0.75 157.30 156.30 154.90 153.90 152.50 DIAMOND 3691.40 0.67 3723.30 3707.35 3683.05 3667.10 3642.80 STEELLONG 31040 -1.08 31670 31350 31190 30870 30710   Comex division Bullions Last close Change (%) Gold $1643.00 -0.08 Silver $17.25 0.35   Base metal inventory Scrip Inventory Change Alumni 1050750 -10625 Copper 206575 -4650 Lead 69225 +650 Nickel 235404 +150 Zinc 74725 -300 * Closing rates of 4 Mar & LME stock of 4 Mar BULLION Gold and silver trade sideways after interest rate cuts by major global central banks. Trend volatile. Review On Wednesday, gold and silver prices settled on a mixed note in international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,643.00 per troy ounce, down by 0.08%, while silver May futures settled at $17.25 per troy ounce, up by 0.35%. Due to weakness in the rupee, domestic markets settled on a positive note. Gold settled at Rs43,569 per 10 grams with a gain of 0.22%, and silver settled at Rs46,683 per kilogram with a gain of 0.66%. Gold and silver traded sideways on Wednesday after major global central banks cut interest rates. Investor risk appetite increased and global equity markets gained on Wednesday. The bullion rally also paused after former Vice President Joe Biden notched big primary wins over Sen. Bernie Sanders and upbeat US ADP non-farm employment data. On Wednesday, ADP said that 183,000 jobs were created in February, which beat expectations. According to consensus forecasts, economists were expecting to see job gains of around 170,000. We expect both precious metals to remain volatile due to excessive volatility in global equity and currency markets. Gold has support at $1,632–1,622 and resistance is at $1,654–1,666. Silver has support at $17.04–16.88, while resistance is at $17.44–17.70. Today, gold has support at Rs43,315–43,062, while resistance is at Rs43,800–44,032. Silver has support at Rs46,309–45,934, while resistance is at Rs46,974–47,264. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. ENERGY Crude oil rally paused after Russia and Saudi Arabia wants status quo on production cuts. Trend volatile. Review On Wednesday, crude oil settled on a weaker note in international markets as WTI crude settled at $46.78 per barrel, while Brent settled at $51.59 per barrel. Due to weakness in the rupee, domestic markets settled on a positive note at Rs3,507 per barrel with a gain of 1.45%. Crude oil prices slipped in the international markets after OPEC allies Russia and Saudi Arabia suggested maintaining a status quo on production cuts in the second quarter of 2020, as per media reports. Crude prices began the day up on reports that oil producers gathered in Vienna under the OPEC+ alliance would agree to a total production cut of at least 1 million barrels per day from this quarter onward to mitigate some of the demand destruction to energy from the novel coronavirus outbreak. US weekly stockpiles rose by 7,85,000 barrels for the week ended on 28 February against analyst expectations of 2.64 million barrels, as per EIA reports. We expect crude oil prices remain volatile today and to trade in the range of $45.50-48 per barrel. Crude oil has support at $46.00–45.50 and resistance is at $47.40–48.00. Crude oil has support at Rs3,449–3,391, while resistance is at Rs3,571–3,635; traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. BASE METALS Base metals gain after upbeat US ADP non-farm employment data. Trend volatile. Review On Wednesday, base metals settled on a positive note in international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,694.00 per metric ton with a gain of 0.63% from the previous close. Base metals gained on Wednesday after upbeat US ADP non-farm employment data and interest rate cuts by major global central banks. Bank of Canada also slashed key interest rates by 50 basis points. On Wednesday, ADP said that 183,000 jobs were created in February, which beat expectations. According to consensus forecasts, economists were expecting to see job gains of around 170,000. After upbeat US data and interest rate cuts, global equity markets rallied and supported base metal prices. We expect base metals remain volatile due to excessive volatility in global equity and currency markets. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs427–425, while resistance is at Rs430–432. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs922–960, zinc should trade in the range of Rs152–158, lead should trade in the range of Rs142–146, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs136–141. Copper has support at Rs427 and Rs425, while resistance is at Rs430 and Rs432; traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. AGRI COMMODITIES Agricultural commodities extend gain after rally in global agricultural commodities. Trend volatile. Review On Wednesday, agricultural commodities extended gains in domestic markets after a rally in global agricultural commodities. Oil seeds and edible oil witnessed a solid recovery in the last two trading sessions due to short covering and value buying at lower levels. Bursa Malaysia KLC also settled positive. Soybean March futures settled on a positive note in the domestic markets at Rs3,746 per quintal with a gain of 0.46%. CBOT settled at 907 cents. Other agricultural commodities also settled on a positive note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a gain of 0.40%, while castor seed futures settled with a gain of 0.64%. RM seed April futures closed with a gain of 0.48%. Guar seed settled with a gain of 1.44%, and guar gum also settled with a gain of 2.76%. The spices pack settled on a mixed note; coriander settled positive, while jeera and turmeric settled negative. Cotton seed oilcake March futures closed positive with a gain of 3.95%. Refined soy oil March futures closed positive at Rs797.00. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs784–812. Soybean has support at Rs3,710–3,680, while resistance is at Rs3,800–3,830. Refined soy oil has support at Rs788–784, while resistance is at Rs808–812. Traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)

The USDINR pair retreated from the day’s high of 73.7850 and settled at 73.55 as compared to previous day’s close of 73.5250. The pair dropped to the day’s low of 73.26, on likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, which in turn may cause exporters to sell their dollar holdings before the end of the current fiscal year. However, losses remained limited, as the spread of coronavirus in India drove investors into the safety of the greenback. US Treasury yields climbing above 1% coupled with upbeat jobs data helped the dollar find its footing after it was shaken up by US Federal Reserve's surprise rate cut. Technically, the intraday price action resulted in the formation of a high-wave candlestick, which is indicating a volatile momentum in the near future. However, the pair is still trading above its previous swing high of 73.05, which is still indicating a bullish momentum. Hence, any temporary correction towards 73.40–73.35 is expected to attract buying in the near future, and the next upside target is expected to be at 73.65–73.80 levels. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 73.05 and 72.80. Trend: Volatile to Bullish The GBPINR pair witnessed 0.97% intraday gains and settled at 94.90 levels as compared to the previous day’s close of 93.9575. The pair saw strong pullback from the day’s low of 94.2575, after the incoming Bank of England governor said he would wait for more clarity about the virus before moving interest rates, rather than rushing to an emergency cut. Technically, on the EOD chart, the GBPINR pair broke its massive resistance of 94.65, which coincides with its previous swing high and formed a bullish candlestick on the chart, both of which are indicating a bullish momentum in the near future. Today, a break above 95.05 would extend the recent gain and the next upside target expected at 95.50–95.80. Alternatively, failures to break this level will cause a correction towards the immediate support of 94.65–94.20 again. Trend: Bullish Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today   Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar. Technical chart source: TickerNews Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com *DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. )