Commodity Report 5th March 2020

The USDINR pair had a volatile trade yesterday and, after swinging between gains and losses, settled at 73.6925 as compared to Tuesday’s close of 73.507, up 0.24%. The pair hit 73.8975, the highest level since 21 October 2018, after a report of new coronavirus cases in India. According to recent reports, 15 Italian tourists tested positive for coronavirus and are currently in the ITBP Chhawla camp in New Delhi. With these new cases, the total number of cases confirmed in India has gone up to 18. However, the pair retreated more than 40 paisa from the day’s high, on selling by nationalised banks likely on behalf of Reserve Bank of India in order to curb sharp volatility in the spot pair. Technically, the intraday price action resulted in the formation of a high-wave candlestick which is indicating a volatile momentum in the near future. However, the pair is still trading above its previous swing high of 73.05, which is still indicating a bullish momentum. Hence, any temporary correction towards 73.35–73.25 is expected to attract buying in the near future, and the next upside target is expected to be at 73.70-74.00 levels. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 72.80 and 72.55. Trend: Volatile The GBPINR retreated from the day’s high of 94.6475 and settled at 93.9575 levels as compared to the previous day’s close of 93.9725. The pair saw some pressure after soft services sector data released yesterday. The UK Markit services PMI rose to 53.2 in February from 53.3 January, missing market expectations of 53.3. Earlier in the morning, the pair opened positive, as after the incoming Bank of England governor said he would wait for more clarity about the virus before moving interest rates, rather than rushing to an emergency cut. Technically, on the EOD chart, the GBPINR pair is trading on the verge of an important resistance of 94.65, which coincides with its previous swing high and forms an indecisive candlestick on the chart, both of which are indicating a volatile to range-bound trade in the near future. On the upside, a break above 94.65 will extend the recent gains and the upside target is expected at 95.20–95.55. Alternatively, a failure to break this level will cause a correction towards the immediate support of 93.40–93.00 again. Trend: Volatile Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today  Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index unexpectedly rose 1.8 points to 57.3 in January, according to data Wednesday. Impact: High | Low | Medium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar. Technical chart source: TickerNews Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com *DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. )

Daily change & technical levels Scrip Close Change (%) R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 GOLD 44458 2.04 45328 44893 44068 43633 42808 SILVER 47372 1.48 48192 47782 47021 46611 45850 CRUDE 3431 -2.17 3560 3495 3454 3389 3348 NG 132.50 -1.19 137.80 135.20 133.70 131.10 129.60 ALUMINI 138.50 0.07 139.40 138.95 138.45 138.00 137.50 COPPER 431.00 0.57 434.60 432.80 430.00 428.20 425.40 LEADMINI 144.95 0.59 146.10 145.50 144.60 144.00 143.10 NICKEL 959.30 1.91 974.20 966.70 954.40 946.90 934.60 ZINCMINI 157.75 1.58 159.50 158.60 157.30 156.40 155.00 DIAMOND 3711.45 0.54 3745.75 3728.60 3697.35 3680.20 3648.95 STEELLONG 31180 0.45 31570 31380 31100 30910 30630   Comex division Bullions Last close Change (%) Gold $1668.00 1.52 Silver $17.39 0.81   Base metal inventory Scrip Inventory Change Alumni 1040775 -9975 Copper 203275 -3300 Lead 69575 +350 Nickel 235950 +546 Zinc 74600 -125 * Closing rates of 5 Mar & LME stock of 5 Mar BULLION Gold and silver gain after panic sell-off in US equity markets. Trend volatile. Review On Thursday, gold and silver prices settled on a positive note in the international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,668.00 per troy ounce, up by 1.52%, while silver May futures settled at $17.39 per troy ounce, up by 0.81%. Domestic markets also settled on a positive note. Gold settled at Rs44,458 per 10 grams with a gain of 2.04%, and silver settled at Rs47,372 per kilogram with a gain of 1.48%. Gold and silver gained on Thursday after a panic sell-off in the US equity markets. The Dow Jones index plunged around 1,000 points after California declared a state of emergency due to the coronavirus outbreak. After monetary easing by major global central banks, global equities are still under pressure due to the coronavirus outbreak and safe-haven assets are again attracting investors. Gold prices gained around 13% in domestic markets and reached lifetime highs. We expect the uncertainty in the global financial markets to continue to support gold and silver prices, and further strength is expected in both precious metals. Gold has support at $1,655–1,644 and resistance at $1,688–1,700. Silver has support at $17.14–17.00, while resistance is at $17.55–17.70. Today, gold has support at Rs43,633–42,808, while resistance is at Rs44,893–45,328. Silver has support at Rs46,611–45,850, while resistance is at Rs47,782–48,192. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. ENERGY Crude oil extends fall ahead of OPEC meeting outcome and sell-off in global equities. Trend volatile. Review On Thursday, crude oil settled on a weaker note in international markets as WTI crude settled at $45.90 per barrel, while Brent settled at $50.05 per barrel. Domestic markets also settled on a weaker note at Rs3,431 per barrel with a loss of 2.17%. Crude oil prices slipped in international markets after a sell-off in global equity markets due to the coronavirus outbreak and ahead of the OPEC meeting outcome. OPEC member Saudi Arabia proposed a 1.5 million barrel output cut against previous proposal of a 1.0 million barrel cut to stabilize global crude oil prices, which are struggling due to slower demand amid the coronavirus outbreak. However, OPEC ally Russia has not yet signed the plan and OPEC has given an ultimatum to sign the proposal for deeper oil cuts. We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile today and if Russia doesn’t agree on deeper production cuts then further weakness in crude oil prices cannot be ruled out. Crude oil is expected to be traded in the range of $45-47 per barrel. Crude oil has support at $45.20–44.70 and resistance is at $46.50–47.00. Crude oil has support at Rs3,389–3,348, while resistance is at Rs3,495–3,560; traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss. BASE METALS Base metals extend gain on the hope of Chinese stimulus and lower LME inventory. Trend volatile. Review On Thursday, base metals settled on a mixed note in the international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,694.00 per metric ton with a loss of 0.39% from the previous close. Base metals gained on Thursday on the hope of a Chinese stimulus to boost economy, which is struggling from the coronavirus outbreak. Interest rate cuts by major global central banks to support global economies are also supporting base metal prices. Base metals also get support due to falling inventories at LME warehouses. However, a sell-off in global equities limited gains in base metal prices. We expect volatility in base metal prices to continue due to a weakness in global equities and a pressure on global economy due to the coronavirus outbreak. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs428–425, while resistance is at Rs433–435. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs944–982, zinc should trade in the range of Rs154–161, lead should trade in the range of Rs142–148, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs137–141. Copper has support at Rs428 and Rs425, while resistance is at Rs433 and Rs435; traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. AGRI COMMODITIES Agricultural commodities extend gain due to unseasonal rains and value buying at lower levels. Trend volatile. Review On Thursday, agricultural commodities extended gain in domestic markets after unseasonal rainfall in most of the producing states and value buying at lower levels. Oil seeds and edible oil witnessed a solid recovery in the last three trading sessions due to short covering and recovery in international markets. Bursa Malaysia KLC also settled positive. Soybean March futures settled on a positive note in the domestic markets at Rs3,800 per quintal with a gain of 1.39%. CBOT settled at 897 cents. Other agricultural commodities also settled on a positive note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a loss of 0.30%, while castor seed futures settled with a gain of 1.11%. RM seed April futures closed with a gain of 2.22%. Guar seed settled with a gain of 0.21%, and guar gum also settled with a gain of 0.49%. The spices pack also settled on a positive note; coriander, jeera and turmeric settled positive. Cotton seed oilcake March futures closed positive with a gain of 3.97%. Refined soy oil March futures closed positive at Rs800.00. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs788–812. Soybean has support at Rs3,760–3,733, while resistance is at Rs3,855–3,880. Refined soy oil has support at Rs792–788, while resistance is at Rs808–812. Traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss. News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)