Commodity Report 31st January 2020 - Get Daily Commodity Research Reports

Currency pivot levels Currency pair Close Change (%) Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Pivot Support 1 Support2 USDINR 71.45 -0.13 71.5033 71.5567 71.4367 71.3833 71.3167 EURINR 78.785 -0.23 78.8883 78.9917 78.7967 78.6933 78.6017 GBPINR 93.06 -0.14 93.1575 93.2575 93.0550 92.9550 92.8525 JPYINR 65.61 -0.30 65.6842 65.7558 65.5733 65.5017 65.3908   Cross-currency update Currency pair Close Change (%) Dollar index 98.05 0.09 EURUSD 1.1007 -0.13 GBPUSD 1.3017 -0.07 USDJPY 109.01 -0.10   USDINR 26 February 2020 expiry option update Options LTP Change (%) OI OI (Prev.) CE  72.50 0.08 -13.51 44975 -1.65 CE 72.00 0.17 -13.92 128529 0.45 CE 71.50 0.3475 -10.9 140910 42.01 CE 71.00 0.6175 -8.86 127090 4.43 CE 70.50 1.02 -5.77 24803 10.07           PE 72.00 1.105 7.28 6795 62.17 PE 71.50 0.71 10.08 94991 9.02 PE 71.00 0.3875 11.51 61141 38.24 PE 70.50 0.17 17.24 111129 11.83 PE 70.00 0.06 14.29 60822 23.66 Note: Previous day’s movement in option activities RBI reference rate (29 January2020) 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN 71.1875 92.7194 78.4221 65.2400   Technical view on major currency pairs USDINR (February Futures) The USDINR pair had a neutral trade yesterday, and after trading in the range of 71.35–71.45 settled at 71.45 as compared to the previous day’s close of 71.5450. On the other hand, the US dollar stayed neutral after the Federal Reserve kept rates steady and signalled that it was in no hurry to move off the sidelines. Technically, the USDINR pair found support at 71.40, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci projection line on the above chart, indicating a bullish momentum in the near future. On the upside, a break above 71.55 will open the door for the next resistance of 71.65–71.85. Alternatively, on the downside, 71.35 will act as a crucial support and a break below will test the next support of 71.20–71.05.Trend: Neutral After upbeat economic data from the UK yesterday, the pound witnessed a mild recovery against the rupee and after hitting a day’s high 93.1550 settled at 93.0675 levels. The data showed, that the annual house price growth jumped to a 14-month high this month in the UK. Property values across the UK were 1.9% higher than a year earlier, marking the strongest annual growth since November 2018, when it was also at 1.9%. Technically, the GBPINR pair remained above its immediate support of 92.70, and rebounded from 92.9525 levels yesterday. However, the momentum trend still looks bearish as pair is trading below its SMA on the EOD chart. Further, RSI 14 and its 9 SMA are showing a bearish crossover, which is supporting the bearish outlook. Today, a break below 92.70 will cause the pound to test its next support of 92.40–92.20. Alternatively, any rise towards 93–93.20 will create the probability for a correction towards 92.40.     Trend: Bearish   Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today  Major economic data & events scheduled for the day Time Currency Economic indicators Forecast Previous Possible impact All Day CNY Bank Holiday - - - 6:00am AUD Import Prices q/q 0.40% 0.40% Neutral All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m -0.60% 0.50% Negative 1:30pm CHF KOF Economic Barometer 97.00 96.40 Positive 30th-31st CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y - 6.00% - 2:25pm EUR German Unemployment Change 5K 8K Positive 2:30pm EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 9.70% 9.70% Neutral 3:30pm EUR Unemployment Rate 7.50% 7.50% Neutral Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction - 1.35|1.3 - 5:30pm GBP BOE Monetary Policy Report - - -   GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-3-6 0-2-7 Positive   GBP Monetary Policy Summary - - -   GBP Official Bank Rate 0.75% 0.75% Neutral   GBP Asset Purchase Facility 435B 435B Neutral   GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9 Neutral 7:00pm USD Advance GDP q/q 2.10% 2.10% Neutral   USD Advance GDP Price Index q/q 1.80% 1.80% Neutral   USD Unemployment Claims 215K 211K Neutral 9:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage -197B -92B Positive 11:30pm EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks - - -  Impact: High | Low | Medium  Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar. Technical chart source: TickerNews Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com *DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)

Currency pivot levels Currency pair Close Change (%) Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Pivot Support 1 Support2 USDINR 71.67 0.29 71.9258 72.0442 71.6892 71.5708 71.3342 EURINR 79.12 0.44 79.3150 79.4300 79.0850 78.9700 78.7400 GBPINR 93.35 0.37 93.5367 93.6458 93.3183 93.2092 92.9908 JPYINR 65.90 0.45 66.1650 66.2700 65.9550 65.8500 65.6400   Cross-currency update Currency pair Close Change (%) Dollar index 97.87 -0.18 EURUSD 1.1103 0.21 GBPUSD 1.3090 0.56 USDJPY 108.93 -0.07   USDINR 26 February 2020 expiry option update Options LTP Change (%) OI OI (Prev.) CE  72.50 0.135 58.82 57817 -1.6 CE 72.00 0.265 49.3 143815 0.59 CE 71.50 0.4875 37.32 133885 39.04 CE 71.00 0.8025 26.38 124067 4.47 CE 70.50 1.2175 18.49 24760 9.48           PE 72.00 0.95 -14.22 9330 62.17 PE 71.50 0.585 -17.02 92919 9.02 PE 71.00 0.31 -19.48 77326 38.26 PE 70.50 0.1325 -20.9 120472 11.8 PE 70.00 0.0475 -20.83 58654 23.66 Note: Previous day’s movement in option activities RBI reference rate (30 January 2020) 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN 71.4772 93.0209 78.7102 65.6200  Technical view on major currency pairs USDINR (February Futures) The USDINR pair gained 0.30% yesterday and settled at 71.65 as compared to the previous day’s close of 71.4725. The US dollar remains in demand against the rupee and other Asian currencies after the Federal Reserve did nothing to signal any near-term easing of policy, despite issuing a statement that was seen as slightly less confident about the economic outlook. However, the US dollar struggled for direction in the evening session after mixed US economic data and the Bank of England held rates steady in the wake of firmer economic data. Technically, the USDINR pair extended its recent bullish momentum and jumped towards 71.close to the second predicted resistance. Today, the pair would need to break above 71.85 in order to test the next resistance of 72.00. Alternatively, the pair may witness correction towards 71.35–71.15 in case it is unable to break 71.85 on closing basis.Trend: Neutral  EURINR (February Futures) The EURINR pair recovered 0.40% yesterday and settled at 79.12 as compared to the previous day’s close of 78.7875. The pair jumped to the day’s high of 79.20 after the unemployment rate in the Eurozone ticked down in December. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 7.5%. Further, weakness in the rupee also supported the recent recovery. Technically, on the EOD chart, the EURINR pair is trading on the verge of a short-term consolidation resistance of 79.25. Since 21 January 2020, the pair is struggling to cross this mark and is consolidating in the range of 79.00–78.65. Further, RSI 14 and its 9 SMA are showing a bullish crossover, which is supporting the outlook of a bullish momentum. Today, a break above 79.25 will cause the EURINR pair to test its next resistance of 79.45–79.65. Alternatively, the pair may retreat towards 78.80–78.65 again.   Trend: Volatile Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today Major economic data & events scheduled for the day Time Currency Economic indicators Forecast Previous Possible impact 6:30am CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.1 50.2 Negative   CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.1 53.5 Negative 10:30am JPY Housing Starts y/y -11.70% -12.70% Neutral 12:00pm EUR French Flash GDP q/q 0.20% 0.30% Negative 12:30pm EUR German Retail Sales m/m -0.50% 2.10% Negative 1:15pm EUR French Consumer Spending m/m -0.10% 0.10% Negative   EUR French Prelim CPI m/m -0.50% 0.40% Negative 1:30pm EUR Spanish Flash GDP q/q 0.40% 0.40% Neutral   EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y 1.00% 0.80% Positive 2:30pm EUR Italian Prelim GDP q/q 0.10% 0.10% Neutral 3:00pm GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.60% 0.80% Negative   GBP Mortgage Approvals 66K 65K Neutral   GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.2B 4.5B Negative 3:30pm EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.40% 1.30% Positive   EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.20% 1.30% Negative   EUR Prelim Flash GDP q/q 0.20% 0.20% Neutral 7:00pm CAD GDP m/m 0.00% -0.10% Positive   CAD RMPI m/m 0.50% 1.50% Negative   CAD IPPI m/m 0.00% 0.10% Negative   USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.10% 0.10% Neutral   USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.70% 0.70% Neutral   USD Personal Spending m/m 0.30% 0.40% Negative   USD Personal Income m/m 0.30% 0.50% Negative 8:15pm USD Chicago PMI 48.9 48.9 Neutral 8:30pm USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 99.1 99.1 Neutral   USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations - 2.50% - Impact: High | Low | Medium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar. Technical chart source: TickerNews Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com *DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)