Gold and silver prices skyrocket on spreading coronavirus and poor global economic data. Trend firm.
Review
On Friday, gold and silver prices settled on a positive note in international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,645.95 per troy ounce, up by 1.57%, while silver March futures settled at $18.46 per troy ounce, up by 0.75%. Domestic markets also settled on a positive note. Gold settled at Rs42,666 per 10 grams with a gain of 1.49%, and silver settled at Rs48,304 per kilogram with a gain of 0.85%. Gold and silver prices skyrocketed on Friday due to the coronavirus spreading to other countries and poor global economic data released during the week. Gold prices crossed $1,645 per troy ounce and silver also crossed $18.40 per troy ounce. Gold prices reached to fresh seven-year high in international markets, while the metal made a lifetime high at MCX. Poor economic data released from the US and Japan pushed global equity markets lower and supported safe-haven buying in precious metals. We expect prices of both precious metals to remain firm and the buy-on-dip strategy will still work next week. Gold has support at $1,632–1,624 and resistance at $1,654–1,666. Silver has support at $18.30–18.18, while resistance is at $18.55–18.80.
Today, gold has support at Rs42,321–41,975, while resistance is at Rs42,901–43,135. Silver has support at Rs48,093–47,882, while resistance is at Rs48,552–48,800. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss.
ENERGY
Fear of coronavirus and Russia’s delay in announcing further output cut push crude prices lower. Trend volatile
Review
On Friday, crude oil settled on a negative note in international markets as WTI crude settled at $53.44 per barrel, while Brent settled at $58.45 per barrel. Domestic markets also settled on a weaker note at Rs3,859 per barrel with a loss of 1.15%. Crude oil prices slipped on Wednesday, as the coronavirus spread to other countries and Russia has not yet agreed for a further production cut. Russia is in no rush to announce its position on additional cuts proposed by OPEC, as nothing urgent is happening in the oil market and there are two more weeks until the scheduled ministerial meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC countries, energy minister Alexander Novak said. Plans for an earlier, mid-February meeting to mitigate a drop in oil prices caused by the coronavirus outbreak were formally canceled late Wednesday as Russia, among other countries, was not convinced of the need to deepen production cuts as proposed by an OPEC+ advisory committee. We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile this week and if they slips below $52 per barrel, it could show further weakness in the coming days. Crude oil has support at $52.70–52.20 and resistance at $54.00–54.40.
Crude oil has support at Rs3,807–3,756, while resistance is at Rs3,903–3,948; traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss.
BASE METALS
Base metals trade sideways as global metal is demand hit by coronavirus. Trend volatile.
Review
On Friday, base metals settled on a mixed note in international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,763.00 per metric ton with a gain of 0.42% from the previous close. Base metals traded sideways on Friday despite weakness in dollar index. Base metals were unable to sustain at higher levels amid as the spreading coronavirus impacted global demand. “This is the biggest demand shock since the financial crisis, and until we see China getting back to work, the virus will be the main focus,” said head of commodity strategy Saxo Bank. US business activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors stalled in February. Global equity markets plunged again, and we expect base metals to trade sideways; the sell-on-rise strategy will still work this week. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs428–426, while resistance is at Rs432–433. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs916–948, zinc should trade in the range of Rs160–166, lead should trade in the range of Rs141–146, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs135–140.
Copper has support at Rs428 and Rs426, while resistance is at Rs432 and Rs433; traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss.
AGRI COMMODITIES
Agricultural commodities are in strong bear grip due to lower demand and record rabi output. Trend volatile.
Review
On Thursday, agricultural commodities extended the fall on the hope of record rabi crop production and fear of slower global demand from coronavirus. The record domestic production in the rabi season and the demand shock from the coronavirus will continue to impact domestic agricultural commodities. However, Bursa Malaysia KLC settled positive. The soybean March futures settled on a slightly positive note in the domestic markets at Rs3,868 per quintal with a gain of 0.10%. CBOT settled at 888 cents. The other agricultural commodities settled on a mixed note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a loss of 1.19%, while castor seed futures settled with a loss of 0.51%. RM seed April futures closed with a gain of 0.55%. Guar seed settled with a loss of 0.05%, and guar gum also settled with a loss of 0.15%. The spices pack settled on a mixed note; coriander and jeera settled positive while turmeric settled negative. Cotton seed oilcake March futures closed negative with a loss of 1.60%. Refined soy oil March futures closed positive at Rs809. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs798–818.
Soybean has support at Rs3,830–3,800, while resistance is at Rs3,900–3,920. Refined soy oil has support at Rs802–798, while resistance is at Rs814–818. Traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 24-FEB-2020
Weekly change & technical levels
NSE/BSE/MSEI February Futures
Currency pair
LTP
Wk % change
R1
R2
Pivot
S1
S2
USDINR
71.66
0.36
71.9067
72.1383
71.6083
71.3767
71.0783
EURINR
77.38
-0.17
77.5900
77.7950
77.4150
77.2100
77.0350
GBPINR
92.24
-0.98
93.0500
93.8700
92.5900
91.7700
91.3100
JPYINR
63.95
-1.78
64.8533
65.7667
64.3767
63.4633
62.9867
Currencies against the US dollar
Currency pair
LTP
Wk % change
R1
R2
Pivot
S1
S2
DOLLAR INDEX
99.34
0.18
99.8333
100.326
99.4167
98.9233
98.5067
EURUSD
1.0848
0.12
1.0881
1.0915
1.0830
1.0796
1.0745
GBPUSD
1.2958
0.60
1.3055
1.3153
1.2953
1.2855
1.2753
USDJPY
111.60
1.66
112.683
113.766
111.116
110.033
108.466
Foreign exchange reserves
14 February 2020
Weekly change
Total reserves
$476.092 billion
by $2.763
Important highlights
Japan's GDP fell 1.6% in Q4 as compared to the 0.4% growth in the previous quarter.
Japan's GDP in the December quarter contracted by an annualized 6.3%, faster than the expected 3.7% contraction.
Industrial production in Japan rose 1.2% in December, missing market expectation of a 1.3% rise.
German ZEW economic sentiment fell to 8.7 in February from 26.7 in January, while the Eurozone economic sentiment fell to 10.4 in February compared to 25.6 in January.
Trade deficit in Japan stood at 1.31 trillion yen ($12 billion), following an upwardly revised 154.55 billion yen deficit in December, and exports fell 2.6% from a year earlier to 5.43 trillion yen, down for the fourteenth straight month.
Eurozone GDP grew 0.1% in the fourth quarter as compared to the 0.3% growth in the previous quarter.
US services sector new business index dropped to 49.7, the lowest since October 2009, from 52.5 last month.
Eurozone Composite Flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), seen as a good gauge of economic health, rose to 51.6 in February from January's final reading of 51.3.
Minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday showed little inclination to loosen monetary policy, while Fed policymakers were cautiously optimistic over state of the US economy and hinted that interest rates would likely remain unchanged for now.
US producer price index for final demand jumped 0.5% last month, the largest gain since October 2018, after climbing 0.2% in December.
The USDINR pair gained 0.36% and settled at 71.6650 as compared to the previous week’s close of 71.4275. The pair inched higher to the two-week high of 71.8425, on increased safe-haven demand following renewed concerns over a sharp rise in the coronavirus death toll in China. The Brent climbed near $60 a barrel, while a firm greenback further aided gains in the pair. The greenback strengthened to a near three-year high against major counterparts on dwindling expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid the receding coronavirus scare.
Technically, as per last week’s outlook, the USDINR pair found support around 71.25 and jumped towards 71.8425, close to the second predicted target of 71.85. The weekly price action resulted in the formation of a high-wave candlestick, which is indicating volatile to range-bound momentum in the near future. However, safe-haven currency demand could jump in the near future following the recent slump in the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, which dropped 0.68% against to the dollar, if the Chinese coronavirus outbreak does not come under control, and next upside momentum is expected to be at 72.40–72.60 levels. On the downside, only a break below 71.20 will cause selling pressure, and the pair may retreat towards immediate support of 70.90–70.65.
The EURINR pair continued its recent bearish trend for third consecutive week and settled at 77.38 as compared to the previous day’s close of 77.5225. The pair dropped to the weekly low 77.2450, after weak German and Eurozone economic data release amid strong a greenback. However, the pair found some support around 77.30, as better-than-expected Eurozone composite purchasing managers' index data suggested the economic bloc has shrugged off the impact of the virus so far.
On the weekly chart, formation of a high-wave candle stick is indicating a range-bound to indecisive trade in the near future. Now, 77.50 will act as a crucial support, and a break below 77.50 will lead to a further fall in the pair, and the next downside target is expected to be at 76.70. Alternatively, a failure to break this level could create a probability for a momentum recovery toward the immediate resistance of 78.20–78.65.
The pound retreated from the weekly high 93.41 and weakened more than 0.98% against the rupee last week, settled at 92.24 as compared to the previous week’s close of 93.14 levels. The pair plunged to the weekly low of 92.13 on concerns over deteriorating EU-UK relations ahead of critical trade talks. Brussels' chief negotiator Michel Barnier rejected the UK's demands for a Canada-style trade deal that would free the UK from EU rules as he made a thinly-veiled warning to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson not to break his word. UK PM Boris Johnson's office accused the EU of reneging on an original offer in 2017. The pound continued weakening against the US dollar Thursday on worries over deteriorating EU-UK relations ahead of critical trade talks due next month.
Technically, Since 22 December 2019, the GBPINR pair is consolidating above the support of 92.10 and struggling to break the immediate resistance of 94.50. Hence, in the near future, the pair may trade in the above range, unless the pair witnesses a break on either side break. Alternatively, any rise towards 92.80–93.00 will lead to selling pressure, as worries over deteriorating EU-UK relations ahead of critical trade talks due next month may hold the pound under pressure.
The Japanese yen witnessed 1.78% its biggest weekly plunge since 5 January 2020. The pair dropped towards 63.90, the lowest level since 25 July 2019, as continuous weak economic data from Japan following dismal growth data released over the weekend hardened expectations of further monetary policy easing by the Bank of Japan going ahead. Further, there are fears that Japan may enter into recession as the impact of the coronavirus may keep the country in de-growth for the second successive quarter.
On the weekly chart, JPYINR pair trading on the verge of the crucial support of 64.20, and a break below is expected to lead to a drastic fall towards the next support levels of 63.20–62.50. Alternatively, a failure to break this level could create a probability for a momentum recovery toward the immediate resistance of 64.80–65.25 levels.
Date
Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Impact
24.02.20
3:15am
NZD
Retail Sales q/q
0.80%
1.60%
Negative
2:30pm
EUR
German Ifo Business Climate
95
95.9
Negative
25.02.20
8:30pm
USD
CB Consumer Confidence
132.6
131.6
Positive
27.02.20
5:30am
NZD
ANZ Business Confidence
-
-13.2
-
6:00am
AUD
Private Capital Expenditure q/q
0.50%
-0.20%
Positive
28.02.20
7:00pm
CAD
GDP m/m
0.10%
0.10%
Neutral
29.02.20
6:30am
CNY
Manufacturing PMI
-
50
-
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Tickerplant
*DOS- Depends on statement. DOV- Depends on Votes. DOR- Depends on Report.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.
)
Commodity Report 24th February 2020
Daily change & technical levels
Scrip
Close
Change (%)
R2
R1
Pivot
S1
S2
GOLD
42666
1.49
43135
42901
42555
42321
41975
SILVER
48304
0.85
48800
48552
48341
48093
47882
CRUDE
3859
-1.15
3948
3903
3852
3807
3756
NG
137.40
-2.62
141.90
139.70
136.70
14.50
131.50
ALUMINI
137.95
0.44
139.40
138.70
137.60
136.90
135.80
COPPER
430.25
0.02
433.10
431.70
429.70
428.30
426.30
LEADMINI
143.45
-1.24
146.15
144.80
143.95
142.60
141.75
NICKEL
932.30
-0.94
939.20
935.80
931.50
928.10
923.80
ZINCMINI
162.60
-1.51
166.10
164.40
163.20
161.40
160.20
DIAMOND
3592.95
-0.19
3605.90
3599.40
3595.00
3588.50
3584.00
STEELLONG
31770
0.32
31890
31830
31760
31700
31630
Comex division
Bullions
Last close
Change (%)
Gold
$1645.95
1.57
Silver
$18.46
0.75
Base metal inventory
Scrip
Inventory
Change
Alumni
1150775
-11525
Copper
164850
-1575
Lead
66725
+0
Nickel
224766
+3840
Zinc
75475
+875
BULLION
Gold and silver prices skyrocket on spreading coronavirus and poor global economic data. Trend firm.
Review
On Friday, gold and silver prices settled on a positive note in international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,645.95 per troy ounce, up by 1.57%, while silver March futures settled at $18.46 per troy ounce, up by 0.75%. Domestic markets also settled on a positive note. Gold settled at Rs42,666 per 10 grams with a gain of 1.49%, and silver settled at Rs48,304 per kilogram with a gain of 0.85%. Gold and silver prices skyrocketed on Friday due to the coronavirus spreading to other countries and poor global economic data released during the week. Gold prices crossed $1,645 per troy ounce and silver also crossed $18.40 per troy ounce. Gold prices reached to fresh seven-year high in international markets, while the metal made a lifetime high at MCX. Poor economic data released from the US and Japan pushed global equity markets lower and supported safe-haven buying in precious metals. We expect prices of both precious metals to remain firm and the buy-on-dip strategy will still work next week. Gold has support at $1,632–1,624 and resistance at $1,654–1,666. Silver has support at $18.30–18.18, while resistance is at $18.55–18.80.
Today, gold has support at Rs42,321–41,975, while resistance is at Rs42,901–43,135. Silver has support at Rs48,093–47,882, while resistance is at Rs48,552–48,800. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss.
ENERGY
Fear of coronavirus and Russia’s delay in announcing further output cut push crude prices lower. Trend volatile
Review
On Friday, crude oil settled on a negative note in international markets as WTI crude settled at $53.44 per barrel, while Brent settled at $58.45 per barrel. Domestic markets also settled on a weaker note at Rs3,859 per barrel with a loss of 1.15%. Crude oil prices slipped on Wednesday, as the coronavirus spread to other countries and Russia has not yet agreed for a further production cut. Russia is in no rush to announce its position on additional cuts proposed by OPEC, as nothing urgent is happening in the oil market and there are two more weeks until the scheduled ministerial meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC countries, energy minister Alexander Novak said. Plans for an earlier, mid-February meeting to mitigate a drop in oil prices caused by the coronavirus outbreak were formally canceled late Wednesday as Russia, among other countries, was not convinced of the need to deepen production cuts as proposed by an OPEC+ advisory committee. We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile this week and if they slips below $52 per barrel, it could show further weakness in the coming days. Crude oil has support at $52.70–52.20 and resistance at $54.00–54.40.
Crude oil has support at Rs3,807–3,756, while resistance is at Rs3,903–3,948; traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss.
BASE METALS
Base metals trade sideways as global metal is demand hit by coronavirus. Trend volatile.
Review
On Friday, base metals settled on a mixed note in international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,763.00 per metric ton with a gain of 0.42% from the previous close. Base metals traded sideways on Friday despite weakness in dollar index. Base metals were unable to sustain at higher levels amid as the spreading coronavirus impacted global demand. “This is the biggest demand shock since the financial crisis, and until we see China getting back to work, the virus will be the main focus,” said head of commodity strategy Saxo Bank. US business activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors stalled in February. Global equity markets plunged again, and we expect base metals to trade sideways; the sell-on-rise strategy will still work this week. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs428–426, while resistance is at Rs432–433. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs916–948, zinc should trade in the range of Rs160–166, lead should trade in the range of Rs141–146, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs135–140.
Copper has support at Rs428 and Rs426, while resistance is at Rs432 and Rs433; traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss.
AGRI COMMODITIES
Agricultural commodities are in strong bear grip due to lower demand and record rabi output. Trend volatile.
Review
On Thursday, agricultural commodities extended the fall on the hope of record rabi crop production and fear of slower global demand from coronavirus. The record domestic production in the rabi season and the demand shock from the coronavirus will continue to impact domestic agricultural commodities. However, Bursa Malaysia KLC settled positive. The soybean March futures settled on a slightly positive note in the domestic markets at Rs3,868 per quintal with a gain of 0.10%. CBOT settled at 888 cents. The other agricultural commodities settled on a mixed note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a loss of 1.19%, while castor seed futures settled with a loss of 0.51%. RM seed April futures closed with a gain of 0.55%. Guar seed settled with a loss of 0.05%, and guar gum also settled with a loss of 0.15%. The spices pack settled on a mixed note; coriander and jeera settled positive while turmeric settled negative. Cotton seed oilcake March futures closed negative with a loss of 1.60%. Refined soy oil March futures closed positive at Rs809. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs798–818.
Soybean has support at Rs3,830–3,800, while resistance is at Rs3,900–3,920. Refined soy oil has support at Rs802–798, while resistance is at Rs814–818. Traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.
Previous Story
Weekly Currency Report 24th February 2020
Weekly change & technical levels NSE/BSE/MSEI February Futures Currency pair LTP Wk % change R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2 USDINR 71.66 0.36 71.9067 72.1383 71.6083 71.3767 71.0783 EURINR 77.38 -0.17 77.5900 77.7950 77.4150 77.2100 77.0350 GBPINR 92.24 -0.98 93.0500 93.8700 92.5900 91.7700 91.3100 JPYINR 63.95 -1.78 64.8533 65.7667 64.3767 63.4633 62.9867 Currencies against the US dollar Currency pair LTP Wk % change R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2 DOLLAR INDEX 99.34 0.18 99.8333 100.326 99.4167 98.9233 98.5067 EURUSD 1.0848 0.12 1.0881 1.0915 1.0830 1.0796 1.0745 GBPUSD 1.2958 0.60 1.3055 1.3153 1.2953 1.2855 1.2753 USDJPY 111.60 1.66 112.683 113.766 111.116 110.033 108.466 Foreign exchange reserves 14 February 2020 Weekly change Total reserves $476.092 billion by $2.763 Important highlights Japan's GDP fell 1.6% in Q4 as compared to the 0.4% growth in the previous quarter. Japan's GDP in the December quarter contracted by an annualized 6.3%, faster than the expected 3.7% contraction. Industrial production in Japan rose 1.2% in December, missing market expectation of a 1.3% rise. German ZEW economic sentiment fell to 8.7 in February from 26.7 in January, while the Eurozone economic sentiment fell to 10.4 in February compared to 25.6 in January. Trade deficit in Japan stood at 1.31 trillion yen ($12 billion), following an upwardly revised 154.55 billion yen deficit in December, and exports fell 2.6% from a year earlier to 5.43 trillion yen, down for the fourteenth straight month. Eurozone GDP grew 0.1% in the fourth quarter as compared to the 0.3% growth in the previous quarter. US services sector new business index dropped to 49.7, the lowest since October 2009, from 52.5 last month. Eurozone Composite Flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), seen as a good gauge of economic health, rose to 51.6 in February from January's final reading of 51.3. Minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday showed little inclination to loosen monetary policy, while Fed policymakers were cautiously optimistic over state of the US economy and hinted that interest rates would likely remain unchanged for now. US producer price index for final demand jumped 0.5% last month, the largest gain since October 2018, after climbing 0.2% in December. The USDINR pair gained 0.36% and settled at 71.6650 as compared to the previous week’s close of 71.4275. The pair inched higher to the two-week high of 71.8425, on increased safe-haven demand following renewed concerns over a sharp rise in the coronavirus death toll in China. The Brent climbed near $60 a barrel, while a firm greenback further aided gains in the pair. The greenback strengthened to a near three-year high against major counterparts on dwindling expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid the receding coronavirus scare. Technically, as per last week’s outlook, the USDINR pair found support around 71.25 and jumped towards 71.8425, close to the second predicted target of 71.85. The weekly price action resulted in the formation of a high-wave candlestick, which is indicating volatile to range-bound momentum in the near future. However, safe-haven currency demand could jump in the near future following the recent slump in the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, which dropped 0.68% against to the dollar, if the Chinese coronavirus outbreak does not come under control, and next upside momentum is expected to be at 72.40–72.60 levels. On the downside, only a break below 71.20 will cause selling pressure, and the pair may retreat towards immediate support of 70.90–70.65. The EURINR pair continued its recent bearish trend for third consecutive week and settled at 77.38 as compared to the previous day’s close of 77.5225. The pair dropped to the weekly low 77.2450, after weak German and Eurozone economic data release amid strong a greenback. However, the pair found some support around 77.30, as better-than-expected Eurozone composite purchasing managers' index data suggested the economic bloc has shrugged off the impact of the virus so far. On the weekly chart, formation of a high-wave candle stick is indicating a range-bound to indecisive trade in the near future. Now, 77.50 will act as a crucial support, and a break below 77.50 will lead to a further fall in the pair, and the next downside target is expected to be at 76.70. Alternatively, a failure to break this level could create a probability for a momentum recovery toward the immediate resistance of 78.20–78.65. The pound retreated from the weekly high 93.41 and weakened more than 0.98% against the rupee last week, settled at 92.24 as compared to the previous week’s close of 93.14 levels. The pair plunged to the weekly low of 92.13 on concerns over deteriorating EU-UK relations ahead of critical trade talks. Brussels' chief negotiator Michel Barnier rejected the UK's demands for a Canada-style trade deal that would free the UK from EU rules as he made a thinly-veiled warning to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson not to break his word. UK PM Boris Johnson's office accused the EU of reneging on an original offer in 2017. The pound continued weakening against the US dollar Thursday on worries over deteriorating EU-UK relations ahead of critical trade talks due next month. Technically, Since 22 December 2019, the GBPINR pair is consolidating above the support of 92.10 and struggling to break the immediate resistance of 94.50. Hence, in the near future, the pair may trade in the above range, unless the pair witnesses a break on either side break. Alternatively, any rise towards 92.80–93.00 will lead to selling pressure, as worries over deteriorating EU-UK relations ahead of critical trade talks due next month may hold the pound under pressure. The Japanese yen witnessed 1.78% its biggest weekly plunge since 5 January 2020. The pair dropped towards 63.90, the lowest level since 25 July 2019, as continuous weak economic data from Japan following dismal growth data released over the weekend hardened expectations of further monetary policy easing by the Bank of Japan going ahead. Further, there are fears that Japan may enter into recession as the impact of the coronavirus may keep the country in de-growth for the second successive quarter. On the weekly chart, JPYINR pair trading on the verge of the crucial support of 64.20, and a break below is expected to lead to a drastic fall towards the next support levels of 63.20–62.50. Alternatively, a failure to break this level could create a probability for a momentum recovery toward the immediate resistance of 64.80–65.25 levels. Date Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Impact 24.02.20 3:15am NZD Retail Sales q/q 0.80% 1.60% Negative 2:30pm EUR German Ifo Business Climate 95 95.9 Negative 25.02.20 8:30pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 132.6 131.6 Positive 27.02.20 5:30am NZD ANZ Business Confidence - -13.2 - 6:00am AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q 0.50% -0.20% Positive 28.02.20 7:00pm CAD GDP m/m 0.10% 0.10% Neutral 29.02.20 6:30am CNY Manufacturing PMI - 50 - Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Tickerplant *DOS- Depends on statement. DOV- Depends on Votes. DOR- Depends on Report. 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4th Week of February 2020
Indian Markets Recap Indian Indices (% Change) INDEX Close 1D 5D 1M 3M NIFTY 12,081 -0.37 -0.8 -0.7 0.9 BSE500 15,787 -0.13 -0.7 -0.5 2.4 SENSEX 41,170 -0.37 -0.7 -0.4 1.5 MID CAP 100 18,110 0.66 -0.1 0.9 7.4 NSE SMALL CAP 100 6,162 0.36 -0.2 -1.4 8.0 Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Global Markets Global Markets (% Change) INDEX Close 1D 5D 1M 3M DJIA 28,992 -0.78 -1.5 0.0 4.0 NASDAQ 9,577 -1.79 -1.4 2.8 12.4 FTSE 7,404 -0.44 -0.1 -2.4 1.1 Nikkie 23,387 -0.39 -1.3 -1.8 1.2 Hangseng 26,881 -1.57 -3.9 -3.8 1.1 Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Nifty Outlook (SELL on RISE) Bank Nifty Outlook US 10 Year Bond Yield INDIA 10 Year Bond Yield Sectoral Movement INDEX Close 1D 5D 1M 3M Banking 30,943 0.3 -0.9 0.0 -1.3 IT 16,649 -0.73 -0.14 2.9 8.9 Pharma 8,364 -0.17 0.34 1.1 3.7 Fin Services 14,510 -0.1 -0.5 1.4 3.5 Media 1,872 -0.5 2.0 -0.3 -3.5 NIFTY PSU BANK 2,169 1.0 -3.9 -10.1 -15.4 Auto 7,698 0.14 -2.74 -6.6 -3.8 FMCG 30,636 -0.64 -1.30 -1.6 -0.8 Real Estate 306 0.0 -2.4 -4.6 11.2 Metals 2,612 0.8 -1.5 -6.7 5.7 NIFTY PVT BANK 16,895 0.3 -1.1 -1.2 -2.1 Source: Bloomberg Sectoral Recap / Lines on performance Sectoral Outlook FII Activity: Derivatives and Cash Market (Weekly) Derivative View LONG BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % MINDTREE 1033.3 2.12% 1392800 19.41% AMBUJACEM 205.8 0.02% 40725000 10.95% GMRINFRA 23.7 2.16% 199440000 10.50% CHOLAFIN 333 0.67% 6992500 9.22% RAMCOCEM 803.9 0.21% 1370400 8.90% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research SHORT BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % ESCORTS 881.75 -3.40% 5418600 9.91% HINDPETRO 223.25 -1.78% 18734100 8.89% HEROMOTOCO 2239.5 -0.75% 3901400 6.78% CANBK 173.05 -0.69% 23017800 6.66% IOC 112.7 -1.70% 55480000 6.56% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Nifty 50 Pivot SYMBOL Close S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 370.85 367.28 369.07 371.78 373.57 376.28 ASIANPAINT 1842.25 1808.82 1825.53 1855.77 1872.48 1902.72 AXISBANK 744.30 728.90 736.60 745.30 753.00 761.70 BAJAJ-AUTO 3065.50 3032.00 3048.75 3074.40 3091.15 3116.80 BAJFINANCE 4880.45 4816.22 4848.33 4885.87 4917.98 4955.52 BAJAJFINSV 9709.70 9609.87 9659.78 9743.67 9793.58 9877.47 BPCL 471.75 464.65 468.20 474.10 477.65 483.55 BHARTIARTL 545.60 532.00 538.80 545.40 552.20 558.80 INFRATEL 226.20 220.87 223.53 227.27 229.93 233.67 BRITANNIA 3059.40 3007.17 3033.28 3078.37 3104.48 3149.57 CIPLA 435.75 425.38 430.57 439.68 444.87 453.98 COALINDIA 179.35 173.22 176.28 178.27 181.33 183.32 DRREDDY 3255.30 3161.87 3208.58 3286.77 3333.48 3411.67 EICHERMOT 18848.65 18322.22 18585.43 18807.72 19070.93 19293.22 GAIL 119.30 117.10 118.20 119.60 120.70 122.10 GRASIM 751.30 733.10 742.20 755.00 764.10 776.90 HCLTECH 608.05 600.92 604.48 608.72 612.28 616.52 HDFCBANK 1217.10 1204.50 1210.80 1220.40 1226.70 1236.30 HEROMOTOCO 2240.25 2210.02 2225.13 2250.57 2265.68 2291.12 HINDALCO 189.95 183.18 186.57 188.78 192.17 194.38 HINDUNILVR 2248.25 2212.78 2230.52 2260.23 2277.97 2307.68 HDFC 2369.50 2336.90 2353.20 2365.35 2381.65 2393.80 ICICIBANK 547.00 538.50 542.75 546.05 550.30 553.60 ITC 207.45 204.05 205.75 207.15 208.85 210.25 IOC 112.30 110.47 111.38 112.92 113.83 115.37 INDUSINDBK 1182.20 1118.23 1150.22 1177.03 1209.02 1235.83 INFY 797.00 786.73 791.87 798.98 804.12 811.23 JSWSTEEL 281.80 272.70 277.25 281.55 286.10 290.40 KOTAKBANK 1685.95 1664.08 1675.02 1687.13 1698.07 1710.18 LT 1280.60 1268.00 1274.30 1281.60 1287.90 1295.20 M&M 524.85 516.95 520.90 526.95 530.90 536.95 MARUTI 6757.60 6674.17 6715.88 6761.72 6803.43 6849.27 NTPC 111.35 110.12 110.73 111.57 112.18 113.02 NESTLEIND 16539.50 16387.03 16463.27 16601.63 16677.87 16816.23 ONGC 102.80 100.47 101.63 102.87 104.03 105.27 POWERGRID 189.25 183.82 186.53 188.62 191.33 193.42 RELIANCE 1485.95 1468.38 1477.17 1492.58 1501.37 1516.78 SBIN 327.65 314.75 321.20 325.20 331.65 335.65 SUNPHARMA 404.95 398.72 401.83 406.67 409.78 414.62 TCS 2156.80 2111.00 2133.90 2174.15 2197.05 2237.30 TATAMOTORS 158.50 152.63 155.57 158.93 161.87 165.23 TATASTEEL 51.45 49.95 50.70 51.95 52.70 53.95 TECHM 829.60 815.20 822.40 834.15 841.35 853.10 TITAN 1322.85 1306.92 1314.88 1327.97 1335.93 1349.02 UPL 584.35 571.55 577.95 587.10 593.50 602.65 ULTRACEMCO 4428.10 4364.03 4396.07 4452.03 4484.07 4540.03 VEDL 142.35 138.68 140.52 142.63 144.47 146.58 WIPRO 245.70 243.00 244.35 246.45 247.80 249.90 YESBANK 35.45 33.68 34.57 35.53 36.42 37.38 ZEEL 256.80 246.37 251.58 256.22 261.43 266.07 Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Note: The levels for TATASTEEL are of TATASTEEL Partly Paid up Share.DisclaimerInvestment in securities market / Mutual Funds are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing. )