Commodity Report 20th February 2020

Currency pivot levels Currency pair Close Change (%) Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Pivot Support 1 Support2 USDINR 71.555 0.29 71.6292 71.7033 71.5158 71.4417 71.3283 EURINR 77.5725 0.16 77.6450 77.7175 77.5275 77.4550 77.3375 GBPINR 93.2825 0.37 93.4875 93.6925 93.1350 92.9300 92.5775 JPYINR 65.245 0.4 65.3258 65.4067 65.2142 65.1333 65.0217   Cross-currency update Currency pair Close Change (%) Dollar index 99.60 0.13 EURUSD 1.0805 0.13 GBPUSD 1.2921 -0.58 USDJPY 111.35 1.37   USDINR 26 February 2020 expiry option update Options LTP Change (%) OI OI (Prev.) CE  72.50 0.010 33.33 93745 96200 CE 72.00 0.0425 54.55 172524 190859 CE 71.50 0.185 68.18 213329 218688 CE 71.00 0.565 49.67 78594 80944 CE 70.50 1.0725 27.68 26651 26579           PE 72.00 0.975 -11.36 8696 9522 PE 71.50 0.485 -30.47 49918 63227 PE 71.00 0.1325 -49.04 155612 132024 PE 70.50 0.015 -62.5 240103 226369 PE 70.00 0.005 -33.33 76055 74472 Note: Previous day’s movement in option activities   RBI reference rate (19 February 2020) 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN 71.4013 92.8193 77.3628 65.0400 The USDINR pair witnessed a 0.29% gain on Tuesday and settled at 71.5550 as compared to Monday’s close of 71.3450. The pair inched higher to the day’s high of 71.59, on likely overseas outflows from local stocks amid a strong dollar. Local stocks tanked for the fourth-successive session due to disappointing quarterly earnings and threats of disruptions in business due to the coronavirus epidemic in China. Technically, since 7 February 2020, the USDINR pair is consolidating in the range of 71.25–71.55 and forming a pennant pattern on the EOD chart. A break above 71.65 will lead a bullish momentum towards next the resistance of 71.85–72.02, Alternatively, the pair is expected to trade in the above range, unless there is a break on either side. On the downside, a break below 71.20 will lead to selling pressure and the pair may test the next support of 71.00–70.80. Trend: Neutral The EURINR pair had an indecisive trade on Tuesday and after trading in the range of 77.45–77.60 settled at 77.5725 as compared to Monday’s close of 77.4375. On the other hand, the euro fell towards a three-year low against the dollar ahead of a highly watched German survey on Tuesday, which is expected to show a sharp slump in investor confidence and fuel growing pessimism about the outlook for Europe's largest economy.  Technically, the intraday price action resulted in the formation of a doji candlestick, which is indicating range-bound momentum in the near future. On the downside, 77.20 will act as a crucial support on a closing basis. A break below it will lead the pair to further fall, and the next downside target is expected to be at 76.90–76.70. Alternatively, momentum recovery could be expected toward the immediate resistance of 77.85–78.20 levels. Trend: Neutral Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today Major economic data & events scheduled for the day Time Currency Economic indicators Forecast Previous Possible impact 12:30pm EUR German GfK Consumer Climate 9.9 9.9 Neutral   EUR German PPI m/m 0.10% 0.10% Neutral 1:15pm EUR French Final CPI m/m -0.40% -0.40% Neutral 20th-23rd CNY New Loans 3100B 1140B Positive 20th-23rd CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.60% 8.70% Negative 3:00pm GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.70% -0.60% Positive Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction - 0.35|1.6 - 4:30pm GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -19 -22 Neutral 6:00pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts - - - 7:00pm CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - 46.2K -   CAD NHPI m/m 0.20% 0.20% Neutral   USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10.1 17 Negative   USD Unemployment Claims 210K 205K Negative 8:30pm EUR Consumer Confidence -8 -8 Neutral   USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.40% -0.30% Positive 9:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage -143B -115B Neutral 9:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.3M 7M Positive Impact: High | Low | Medium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar. Technical chart source: TickerNews Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com *DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. )

Market Recap Market Outlook     Bank Nifty Outlook Exhibit 4: Participants Activity   FII STATS FII  (Activity in no. of Contracts)   in Rs. Cr. Bought Sold Net Chg Conclusion NET OI INDEX FUTURES 994.37 2543 -7643 10,186 Short covering -88820 INDEX CALLS 1538.50 8895 -7356 16,251 Bought CE 95278 INDEX PUTS 4963 2840 2,123 81157 NET 3344.08        Bullish                     PROP  (Activity in no. of Contracts)     Bought Sold Net Chg Conclusion NET OI INDEX FUTURES   -2394 -87 -2,307 Long unwinding -66 INDEX CALLS   7068 -53124 60,192 Covered CE and Sold PE -135513 INDEX PUTS 10453 66125 -55,672 -216154            Bullish   Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Note on Participants Activity Derivative Outlook Exhibit 6: LONG BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % VOLTAS 735.25 5.05% 4428000 27.02% ADANIPOWER 58.3 2.55% 93700000 21.86% TORNTPHARM 2248.05 5.08% 499000 21.71% IDEA 4.25 39.34% 638274000 12.06% MINDTREE 1011.8 1.51% 1166400 11.98% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research   Exhibit 7: SHORT BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % APOLLOTYRE 151.15 -0.59% 22302000 8.72% SAIL 41.8 -0.71% 95785700 4.95% TATAMOTORS 158.2 -2.47% 81996700 4.61% MOTHERSUMI 122.05 -1.09% 20490000 3.56% HCLTECH 607.45 -0.24% 23940000 3.42% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research    Exhibit 8: LONG UNWINDING SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % TCS 2202.55 -0.62% 13143250 -2.18% JSWSTEEL 281.8 -1.09% 55066600 -0.39%                               Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research   Exhibit 9: SHORT COVERING SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % COALINDIA 177.9 3.31% 53249400 -7.56% RAMCOCEM 802.25 1.54% 1258400 -6.87% NTPC 112.2 2.14% 122332800 -6.26% NMDC 105.1 5.42% 40800000 -6.21% CADILAHC 275.75 3.03% 7106000 -4.72% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Nifty 50 Pivots SYMBOL Close S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 371.30 363.93 367.62 371.03 374.72 378.13 ASIANPAINT 1884.90 1834.93 1859.92 1876.33 1901.32 1917.73 AXISBANK 741.05 730.75 735.90 740.50 745.65 750.25 BAJAJ-AUTO 3090.90 3052.20 3071.55 3091.75 3111.10 3131.30 BAJFINANCE 4878.05 4741.48 4809.77 4848.38 4916.67 4955.28 BAJAJFINSV 9758.65 9506.22 9632.43 9706.22 9832.43 9906.22 BPCL 475.55 463.85 469.70 475.35 481.20 486.85 BHARTIARTL 543.40 530.40 536.90 545.25 551.75 560.10 INFRATEL 225.10 205.90 215.50 221.85 231.45 237.80 BRITANNIA 3082.25 3006.75 3044.50 3077.75 3115.50 3148.75 CIPLA 447.50 432.90 440.20 444.70 452.00 456.50 COALINDIA 177.75 172.55 175.15 176.85 179.45 181.15 DRREDDY 3278.15 3237.52 3257.83 3278.32 3298.63 3319.12 EICHERMOT 18875.20 18546.57 18710.88 18874.92 19039.23 19203.27 GAIL 119.85 117.68 118.77 119.83 120.92 121.98 GRASIM 757.15 714.28 735.72 747.73 769.17 781.18 HCLTECH 605.75 595.08 600.42 609.33 614.67 623.58 HDFCBANK 1227.20 1207.60 1217.40 1223.70 1233.50 1239.80 HEROMOTOCO 2251.60 2201.27 2226.43 2252.22 2277.38 2303.17 HINDALCO 188.10 182.83 185.47 187.03 189.67 191.23 HINDUNILVR 2292.15 2213.58 2252.87 2280.53 2319.82 2347.48 HDFC 2377.25 2309.15 2343.20 2364.10 2398.15 2419.05 ICICIBANK 544.80 537.93 541.37 543.93 547.37 549.93 ITC 206.70 202.60 204.65 205.90 207.95 209.20 IOC 114.20 111.93 113.07 113.78 114.92 115.63 INDUSINDBK 1142.15 1090.05 1116.10 1142.05 1168.10 1194.05 INFY 800.45 791.78 796.12 800.48 804.82 809.18 JSWSTEEL 280.85 273.48 277.17 283.58 287.27 293.68 KOTAKBANK 1701.10 1667.57 1684.33 1712.17 1728.93 1756.77 LT 1281.40 1263.27 1272.33 1285.67 1294.73 1308.07 M&M 526.40 518.10 522.25 525.95 530.10 533.80 MARUTI 6756.60 6515.03 6635.82 6745.38 6866.17 6975.73 NTPC 112.05 108.72 110.38 112.07 113.73 115.42 NESTLEIND 16785.05 16341.75 16563.40 16697.45 16919.10 17053.15 ONGC 101.70 97.50 99.60 100.90 103.00 104.30 POWERGRID 187.50 181.20 184.35 186.15 189.30 191.10 RELIANCE 1503.80 1463.77 1483.78 1495.12 1515.13 1526.47 SBIN 320.35 313.78 317.07 320.53 323.82 327.28 SUNPHARMA 403.55 392.52 398.03 406.12 411.63 419.72 TCS 2196.35 2166.12 2181.23 2205.62 2220.73 2245.12 TATAMOTORS 158.05 147.02 152.53 158.57 164.08 170.12 TATASTEEL 51.80 50.80 51.30 52.10 52.60 53.40 TECHM 840.90 831.80 836.35 840.60 845.15 849.40 TITAN 1329.60 1304.00 1316.80 1324.85 1337.65 1345.70 UPL 585.20 574.23 579.72 586.78 592.27 599.33 ULTRACEMCO 4473.10 4411.03 4442.07 4486.03 4517.07 4561.03 VEDL 142.65 140.22 141.43 142.82 144.03 145.42 WIPRO 247.60 242.97 245.28 246.82 249.13 250.67 YESBANK 35.30 32.43 33.87 35.03 36.47 37.63 ZEEL 252.25 239.88 246.07 250.68 256.87 261.48 Note: The levels for TATASTEEL are of TATASTEEL Partly Paid up Share. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)