Commodity Report 13th February 2020

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Daily change & technical levels

Scrip

Close

Change (%)

R2

R1

Pivot

S1

S2

GOLD

40484

0.18

40689

40589

40446

40344

40203

SILVER

45500

-0.36

45828

45664

45535

45371

45242

CRUDE

3662

2.29

3759

3711

3645

3597

3531

NG

131.00

3.07

134.10

132.60

130.20

128.70

126.30

ALUMINI

138.35

0.04

139.20

138.80

138.20

137.80

137.20

COPPER

435.25

0.35

437.05

436.15

434.70

433.80

432.35

LEADMINI

145.85

-0.07

147.20

146.50

145.80

145.10

144.40

NICKEL

953.80

0.18

965.30

959.50

951.00

945.20

936.70

ZINCMINI

168.05

-0.15

169.55

168.80

168.00

167.25

166.45

DIAMOND

3570.45

0.05

3578.20

3574.30

3569.40

3565.50

3560.50

STEELLONG

31490

0.06

31817

31653

31487

31323

31157

 

Comex division

Bullions

Last close

Change (%)

Gold

$1571.60

  0.10

Silver

$17.50

 -0.57

 

Base metal inventory

Scrip

Inventory

Change

Alumni

1239800

+10100

Copper

170000

-1750

Lead

66800

+0

Nickel

208722

+4644

Zinc

72025

+875

* Closing rates of 12 Feb & LME stock of 12 Feb


BULLION

Gold and silver traded sideways amid strength in global equity and dollar index. Trend volatile.

Review

On Wednesday, gold and silver prices settled on a mixed note in international markets. Gold April futures settled at $1,571.60 per troy ounce, up by 0.10%, while silver March futures settled at $17.50 per troy ounce, down by 0.57%. Domestic markets also settled on a mixed note. Gold settled at Rs40,484 per 10 grams with a gain of 0.18%, and silver settled at Rs45,500 per kilogram with a loss of 0.36%. Gold and silver traded sideways on Wednesday amid easing fears of the coronavirus and a rally in global equity markets. The dollar index also gained after the Fed Chairman’s upbeat remark on the US economy. We expect both precious metals to remain volatile, and if the dollar index shows further strength, it will put pressure on the prices of both precious metals. Gold has support at $1,562–1,555 and resistance at $1,578–1,584. Silver has support at $17.40–17.24, while resistance is at $17.70–17.80.



Today, gold has support at Rs40,344–40,203, while resistance is at Rs40,589–40,689. Silver has support at Rs45,371–45,242, while resistance is at Rs45,664–45,828. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss.


ENERGY

Crude oil prices rebound due to easing fears of coronavirus. Trend volatile.

Review

On Wednesday, crude oil prices settled on a positive note in the international markets as WTI crude settled at $51.17 per barrel, while Brent settled at $56.19 per barrel. Domestic markets also settled on a positive note at Rs3,662 per barrel with a gain of 2.29%. Crude oil prices rebounded on Wednesday due to easing fears of the coronavirus. Crude oil posted its biggest gain in the last six weeks as signs that the spread of the coronavirus is slowing, which boosted investors’ confidence again. Crude oil prices jumped again despite a rise in the US weekly inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported that nationwide crude inventories rose 7.46 million barrels last week, more than double the 3.2 million-barrel increase forecasted by analysts. Crude oil prices also get support that Saudi Arabia is advocating for a further output cut of 6,00,000 barrels per day. We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile, and if it sustains above $52 per barrel, there could be further strength towards $54 per barrel. Crude oil has support at $50.50–50.00 and resistance at $51.80–52.40.



Crude oil has support at Rs3,597–3,531, while resistance is at Rs3,711–3,759; traders are suggested to trade in a range with a strict stop-loss.


BASE METALS

Base metals rebound after easing fears of coronavirus. Trend volatile

Review

On Wednesday, base metals settled on a positive note in international markets. 3M LME copper settled at $5,762.00 per metric ton with a gain of 0.65% from the previous close. Base metal prices witnessed some rebound in prices on Wednesday after sign of easing fear of coronavirus. A new report suggests that the spread of the coronavirus is slowing in Asia, which supported the prices of base metals. Copper prices crossed $5,750 per metric ton at the London Metal Exchange. Global equity markets also rebounded but strength in the dollar index limited gains in base metal prices. We expect base metal prices to remain volatile. Today, copper has support in the range of Rs434–432, while resistance is at Rs436–437. Nickel should trade in the range of Rs942–972, zinc should trade in the range of Rs166–171, lead should trade in the range of Rs144–148, and aluminium should trade in the range of Rs136–140.




Copper has support at Rs434 and Rs432, while resistance is at Rs436 and Rs437; traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss.


AGRI COMMODITIES

Agricultural commodities rebound after signs that spread of coronavirus is slowing. Trend volatile.

Review

On Wednesday, agricultural commodities rebounded in domestic markets after a media report suggested that the spread of the coronavirus is slowing in Asia. All agricultural commodities witnessed a rebound in prices. Bursa Malaysia KLC also recovered from its lows. Soybean March futures settled on a positive note in domestic markets at Rs3,930 per quintal with a gain of 0.51%. CBOT settled at 892 cents. Other agricultural commodities also settled on a positive note at NCDEX. Chana March futures settled with a gain of 1.81%, and castor seed futures settled with a gain of 0.26%. RM seed April futures closed with a gain of 1.00%. Guar seed settled with a gain of 1.03%, and guar gum also settled with a gain of 1.37%. The spices pack also settled on a positive note; coriander, jeera and turmeric settled positive. Cotton seed oilcake March futures closed positive with a gain of 1.78%. Refined soy oil March futures closed positive at Rs838. We expect refined soy oil to trade in the range of Rs830–850.


Soybean has support at Rs3,900–3,880, while resistance is at Rs3,970–4,000. Refined soy oil has support at Rs834–830, while resistance is at Rs844–850. Traders are suggested to trade as per levels with a strict stop-loss.

News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news.


Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.

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Currency Updates 13th February 2020

Currency pivot levels Currency pair Close Change (%) Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Pivot Support 1 Support 2 USDINR 71.43 0.05 71.4883 71.5617 71.3892 71.3158 71.2167 EURINR 78.05 0.02 78.3733 78.6892 78.1342 77.8183 77.5792 GBPINR 92.78 0.50 92.9083 93.0567 92.6692 92.5208 92.2817 JPYINR 65.01 -0.11 65.0933 65.1967 64.9567 64.8533 64.7167   Cross-currency update Currency pair Close Change (%) Dollar index 99.00 0.23 EURUSD 1.0872 -0.39 GBPUSD 1.2958 0.04 USDJPY 110.08 0.27   USDINR 26 February 2020 expiry option update Options LTP Change (%) OI OI (Prev.) CE  72.50 0.015 -14.29 112176 -1.51 CE 72.00 0.0475 -17.39 187005 -2.1 CE 71.50 0.1775 -5.33 206468 0.98 CE 71.00 0.48 3.78 91139 -0.48 CE 70.50 0.9325 4.48 26451 -0.21           PE 72.00 1.075 -5.29 10439 -0.02 PE 71.50 0.635 -3.79 69640 -1.53 PE 71.00 0.26 -11.11 111967 5.2 PE 70.50 0.06 -27.27 210956 3.16 PE 70.00 0.01 -42.86 71219 -3.68 Note: Previous day’s movement in option activities RBI reference rate (12 February 2020) 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN 71.2580 92.3157 77.7373 64.8600 The USDINR pair had a neutral trade for the third consecutive day yesterday, and settled almost flat at 71.43 as compared to the previous day’s close of 71.3825 levels. The pair was stuck in its previous day’s range, as market participants remained cautious ahead of the release of India's retail inflation data for January, amid an uptick in Brent crude oil prices. Further, improving risk appetite, tracking a slowdown in the spread of the coronavirus, offset the impact of dollar buying by oil importers. Technically, since beginning of the week, the USDINR pair has been stuck in the range of 71.25–71.55 and forming an indecisive candlestick on the EOD chart, which is indicating for a range-bound to volatile momentum in the near future, and the pair is expected to trade in the above range unless there is a break on either side. However, uncertainty in the global market is indicating a probability for a bounce back from support levels of 71.30–71.25. On the downside, a break below 70.80 will lead to selling pressure, and the pair may test the next support of 70.65–70.55. Trend: NeutralThe pound traded higher against the US dollar and rupee yesterday. It gained more than 0.50% and jumped to the day’s high of 92.8175 after an upbeat gross domestic product (GDP) data release weakened chances of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut. The UK economy grew 0.3% in December, beating market expectations for growth of 0.2%, official data showed on Tuesday. In November, the UK GDP contracted 0.3%. In addition, the pound also benefited as the US dollar weakened slightly against its major counterparts.  Technically, the GBPINR pair rebounded strongly from its 13 January 2020 swing low, which is indicating a bullish momentum in the near future. Today, a break above 92.85 will lead to momentum recovery in the pair and an upside target is expected to be at 93.20–93.55. Alternatively, the pair may retreat towards the immediate support of 92.25 again.Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today . Major economic data & events scheduled for the day  Time Currency Economic indicators Forecast Previous Possible impact 5:20am JPY PPI y/y 1.50% 0.90% Positive 5:30am AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks - - -   AUD MI Inflation Expectations   4.70% -   CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks - - - 5:31am GBP RICS House Price Balance 3.00% -2.00% Positive 12th-18th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y - 6.00% - 12:30pm EUR German Final CPI m/m -0.60% -0.60% Neutral 13th-15th CNY New Loans 3100B 1140B Positive 13th-15th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.60% 8.70% Negative 3:30pm EUR EU Economic Forecasts - - - 7:00pm USD CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20% Neutral   USD Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.10% Positive   USD Unemployment Claims 210K 202K Negative 9:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage -106B -137B Neutral 11:31pm USD 30-y Bond Auction - 2.34|2.5 - Impact: High | Low | Medium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar. Technical chart source: TickerNews Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com *DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. )

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Share Market Today 13th february 2020

Market Recap Market Outlook   Bank Nifty Outlook Exhibit 4: Participants Activity   FII STATS FII  (Activity in no. of Contracts)   in Rs. Cr. Bought Sold Net Chg Conclusion NET OI INDEX FUTURES 1144.77 1430 -11489 12,919 Short covering -88404 INDEX CALLS 515.43 6075 -1452 7,527 Bought CE 106514 INDEX PUTS 8567 9668 -1,101 81157 NET 2139.42        Bullish                     PROP  (Activity in no. of Contracts)     Bought Sold Net Chg Conclusion NET OI INDEX FUTURES   5143 -940 6,083 Long addition 1493 INDEX CALLS   23022 12209 10,813 Bought CE & Sold PE -69718 INDEX PUTS -2125 53366 -55,491 -216154            Bullish   Note on Participants Activity Derivative Outlook Exhibit 1: LONG BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % PFC 127.15 1.64% 40802200 27.00% MFSL 493.7 2.23% 5824000 13.85% BALKRISIND 1148.4 0.79% 1902400 12.22% KOTAKBANK 1721.55 2.26% 9406000 9.29% JUSTDIAL 507.85 0.07% 3351600 8.13% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research    Exhibit 2: SHORT BUILT UP SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % JUBLFOOD 1828.55 -0.28% 2788500 12.35% BHEL 36.45 -5.32% 98342400 7.81% ASHOKLEY 81.35 -2.16% 67296000 7.28% SIEMENS 1424.9 -4.96% 2362800 7.03% SBIN 321.45 -1.12% 127785000 5.09% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research   Exhibit 3: LONG UNWINDING SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % L&TFH 127.45 -2.78% 25149600 -7.21% UJJIVAN 383.7 -2.58% 6755800 -4.72% MINDTREE 925.9 -0.27% 880800 -3.84% RECLTD 142.5 -0.04% 24342000 -3.82% RAMCOCEM 782.15 -0.14% 1734400 -3.21% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research  Exhibit 4: SHORT COVERING SYMBOL Close Price change % OI OI Change % GAIL 130.4 0.93% 43989498 -6.64% MOTHERSUMI 127.6 1.63% 21980000 -6.03% CHOLAFIN 339.2 1.22% 6142500 -5.03% ONGC 106.65 0.42% 96965000 -4.44% COALINDIA 180.35 0.73% 60974100 -3.93% Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research Nifty 50 Pivots SYMBOL Close S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 374.10 367.57 370.83 374.87 378.13 382.17 ASIANPAINT 1893.70 1857.70 1875.70 1896.20 1914.20 1934.70 AXISBANK 755.25 745.95 750.60 755.65 760.30 765.35 BAJAJ-AUTO 3146.30 3108.13 3127.22 3155.93 3175.02 3203.73 BAJFINANCE 4768.70 4697.43 4733.07 4757.63 4793.27 4817.83 BAJAJFINSV 9771.85 9610.32 9691.08 9766.02 9846.78 9921.72 BPCL 474.75 466.32 470.53 478.12 482.33 489.92 BHARTIARTL 539.60 531.63 535.62 538.98 542.97 546.33 INFRATEL 243.35 238.72 241.03 244.52 246.83 250.32 BRITANNIA 3136.80 3071.87 3104.33 3156.67 3189.13 3241.47 CIPLA 446.80 438.97 442.88 448.92 452.83 458.87 COALINDIA 180.30 175.43 177.87 180.63 183.07 185.83 DRREDDY 3195.70 3141.57 3168.63 3191.12 3218.18 3240.67 EICHERMOT 19277.85 18753.68 19015.77 19187.88 19449.97 19622.08 GAIL 130.35 126.12 128.23 129.62 131.73 133.12 GRASIM 755.35 741.48 748.42 761.43 768.37 781.38 HCLTECH 614.10 604.77 609.43 614.97 619.63 625.17 HDFCBANK 1249.00 1239.80 1244.40 1248.65 1253.25 1257.50 HEROMOTOCO 2423.05 2387.68 2405.37 2417.68 2435.37 2447.68 HINDALCO 193.65 188.55 191.10 193.75 196.30 198.95 HINDUNILVR 2260.35 2112.12 2186.23 2229.12 2303.23 2346.12 HDFC 2437.60 2391.73 2414.67 2450.83 2473.77 2509.93 ICICIBANK 549.30 539.57 544.43 547.57 552.43 555.57 ITC 213.05 210.22 211.63 213.22 214.63 216.22 IOC 115.10 113.27 114.18 115.57 116.48 117.87 INDUSINDBK 1277.40 1226.13 1251.77 1277.33 1302.97 1328.53 INFY 781.05 771.65 776.35 779.80 784.50 787.95 JSWSTEEL 293.70 285.63 289.67 292.53 296.57 299.43 KOTAKBANK 1714.90 1658.30 1686.60 1703.30 1731.60 1748.30 LT 1297.30 1272.53 1284.92 1292.38 1304.77 1312.23 M&M 531.00 519.33 525.17 529.73 535.57 540.13 MARUTI 7043.30 6951.70 6997.50 7053.75 7099.55 7155.80 NTPC 116.80 114.87 115.83 117.37 118.33 119.87 NESTLEIND 16297.70 15742.10 16019.90 16246.25 16524.05 16750.40 ONGC 106.70 105.70 106.20 107.00 107.50 108.30 POWERGRID 189.35 186.58 187.97 189.93 191.32 193.28 RELIANCE 1470.30 1446.87 1458.58 1466.72 1478.43 1486.57 SBIN 320.20 312.47 316.33 323.12 326.98 333.77 SUNPHARMA 414.60 409.33 411.97 416.63 419.27 423.93 TCS 2170.75 2133.58 2152.17 2168.58 2187.17 2203.58 TATAMOTORS 170.95 166.78 168.87 171.08 173.17 175.38 TATASTEEL 55.35 53.92 54.63 55.77 56.48 57.62 TECHM 821.50 811.93 816.72 821.58 826.37 831.23 TITAN 1269.00 1251.50 1260.25 1274.60 1283.35 1297.70 UPL 573.90 563.23 568.57 575.78 581.12 588.33 ULTRACEMCO 4453.75 4409.38 4431.57 4462.13 4484.32 4514.88 VEDL 141.55 139.45 140.50 142.20 143.25 144.95 WIPRO 244.45 238.98 241.72 244.43 247.17 249.88 YESBANK 35.20 33.97 34.58 35.67 36.28 37.37 ZEEL 232.05 228.85 230.45 232.70 234.30 236.55 Note: The levels for TATASTEEL are of TATASTEEL Partly Paid up Share. Disclaimer: "Investment in securities market and Mutual Funds are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.")

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