Commodity Report 12th February 2020

Currency pivot levels Currency pair Close Change (%) Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Pivot Support 1 Support2 USDINR 71.3825 -0.06 71.3883 71.4017 71.4042 71.3908 71.3933 EURINR 78.0425 -0.36 78.2192 78.4008 78.2683 78.0867 77.9542 GBPINR 92.30 -0.10 92.6267 92.9433 92.5133 92.1967 91.7667 JPYINR 65.075 -0.10 65.1375 65.2000 65.1375 65.0750 65.0125   Cross-currency update Currency pair Close Change (%) Dollar index 98.77 -0.09 EURUSD 1.0915 0.04 GBPUSD 1.2953 0.29 USDJPY 109.78 0.02   USDINR 26 February 2020 expiry option update Options LTP Change (%) OI OI (Prev.) CE  72.50 0.015 -50 113401 3.17 CE 72.00 0.0525 -34.38 191001 -4.21 CE 71.50 0.1725 -23.33 204405 2.26 CE 71.00 0.465 -7.46 94486 0.7 CE 70.50 0.8925 -6.05 26507 -2.54           PE 72.00 1.135 3.65 10446 1.68 PE 71.50 0.685 3.79 70700 -0.38 PE 71.00 0.3 0.00 106416 0.6 PE 70.50 0.085 -8.11 204512 9.42 PE 70.00 0.0175 0.00 73625 0.58 Note: Previous day’s movement in option activities RBI reference rate (11 February 2020) 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN 71.2291 92.0000 77.7067 64.8000 The USDINR pair remained indecisive for the second consecutive day yesterday, and settled almost flat at 71.38 as compared to the previous day’s close of 71.42 levels. The pair saw a mild recovery from the day’s low of 71.2850, on buying by nationalised banks likely on behalf of oil importers amid a strong greenback. The US dollar traded higher against its major counterparts after two Federal Reserve policymakers affirmed about the good health of US economy, while playing down the impact of the virus on the domestic economy, which also weighed on the USDINR pair. Technically, as expected yesterday, the downside momentum remained limited and the USDINR pair found support from its immediate support. Intraday price action resulted in the formation of a high-wave candlestick, which is indicating for a range-bound to volatile momentum in the near future. Further, following the ongoing global factors, the pair is expecting to trade above its support levels 71.20­–71.00. On the downside, a break below 70.80 will lead to selling pressure and the pair may test the next support of 70.65–70.55. Trend: Neutral The EURINR pair witnessed a 0.41% intraday fall yesterday. The currency came under pressure and dropped to the day’s low 77.85, following weak Eurozone investor confidence data released on Monday amid weak German industrial production numbers from last week's data release. Also, a strong greenback following optimistic comments from two Federal Reserve members further weighed on the recent fall. Technically, the formation of long bearish candlestick on the EOD chart is still indicating bearish momentum in the EURINR pair. Further, the pair broke its crucial support of 78.70 on 7 February 2020, which is coinciding with the swing low of 19 January 2020 and is also supporting the bearish outlook. Today, a break below 77.80 will lead to selling pressure in the pair and a downside target is expected to be at 77.50–77.20. Alternatively, a momentum recovery could be expected toward the immediate resistance of 78.45–78.65, which could attract selling pressure in the near future. Trend: Neutral Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today   Major economic data & events scheduled for the day Time Currency Economic indicators Forecast Previous Possible impact Tentative AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment - -1.80% - 5:20am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 2.80% 2.70% Positive 6:30am NZD Official Cash Rate 1.00% 1.00% Neutral   NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement - - -   NZD RBNZ Rate Statement - - - 7:30am NZD RBNZ Press Conference - - - 11th-18th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y - 6.00% - 11:30am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y - -33.50% - 12th-15th CNY New Loans 3100B 1140B Positive 12th-15th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.60% 8.70% Negative 3:30pm EUR Industrial Production m/m -1.80% 0.20% Negative Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction - -0.25|1.2 - 7:00pm USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks - - - 8:00pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m - -0.20% - 8:30pm USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies - - - 9:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.1M 3.4M Positive 11:31pm USD 10-y Bond Auction - 1.87|2.4 -  Impact: High | Low | Medium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar. Technical chart source: TickerNews Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com *DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. )

Currency pivot levels Currency pair Close Change (%) Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Pivot Support 1 Support 2 USDINR 71.43 0.05 71.4883 71.5617 71.3892 71.3158 71.2167 EURINR 78.05 0.02 78.3733 78.6892 78.1342 77.8183 77.5792 GBPINR 92.78 0.50 92.9083 93.0567 92.6692 92.5208 92.2817 JPYINR 65.01 -0.11 65.0933 65.1967 64.9567 64.8533 64.7167   Cross-currency update Currency pair Close Change (%) Dollar index 99.00 0.23 EURUSD 1.0872 -0.39 GBPUSD 1.2958 0.04 USDJPY 110.08 0.27   USDINR 26 February 2020 expiry option update Options LTP Change (%) OI OI (Prev.) CE  72.50 0.015 -14.29 112176 -1.51 CE 72.00 0.0475 -17.39 187005 -2.1 CE 71.50 0.1775 -5.33 206468 0.98 CE 71.00 0.48 3.78 91139 -0.48 CE 70.50 0.9325 4.48 26451 -0.21           PE 72.00 1.075 -5.29 10439 -0.02 PE 71.50 0.635 -3.79 69640 -1.53 PE 71.00 0.26 -11.11 111967 5.2 PE 70.50 0.06 -27.27 210956 3.16 PE 70.00 0.01 -42.86 71219 -3.68 Note: Previous day’s movement in option activities RBI reference rate (12 February 2020) 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN 71.2580 92.3157 77.7373 64.8600 The USDINR pair had a neutral trade for the third consecutive day yesterday, and settled almost flat at 71.43 as compared to the previous day’s close of 71.3825 levels. The pair was stuck in its previous day’s range, as market participants remained cautious ahead of the release of India's retail inflation data for January, amid an uptick in Brent crude oil prices. Further, improving risk appetite, tracking a slowdown in the spread of the coronavirus, offset the impact of dollar buying by oil importers. Technically, since beginning of the week, the USDINR pair has been stuck in the range of 71.25–71.55 and forming an indecisive candlestick on the EOD chart, which is indicating for a range-bound to volatile momentum in the near future, and the pair is expected to trade in the above range unless there is a break on either side. However, uncertainty in the global market is indicating a probability for a bounce back from support levels of 71.30–71.25. On the downside, a break below 70.80 will lead to selling pressure, and the pair may test the next support of 70.65–70.55. Trend: NeutralThe pound traded higher against the US dollar and rupee yesterday. It gained more than 0.50% and jumped to the day’s high of 92.8175 after an upbeat gross domestic product (GDP) data release weakened chances of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut. The UK economy grew 0.3% in December, beating market expectations for growth of 0.2%, official data showed on Tuesday. In November, the UK GDP contracted 0.3%. In addition, the pound also benefited as the US dollar weakened slightly against its major counterparts.  Technically, the GBPINR pair rebounded strongly from its 13 January 2020 swing low, which is indicating a bullish momentum in the near future. Today, a break above 92.85 will lead to momentum recovery in the pair and an upside target is expected to be at 93.20–93.55. Alternatively, the pair may retreat towards the immediate support of 92.25 again.Major economic data and events released yesterday/earlier today . Major economic data & events scheduled for the day  Time Currency Economic indicators Forecast Previous Possible impact 5:20am JPY PPI y/y 1.50% 0.90% Positive 5:30am AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks - - -   AUD MI Inflation Expectations   4.70% -   CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks - - - 5:31am GBP RICS House Price Balance 3.00% -2.00% Positive 12th-18th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y - 6.00% - 12:30pm EUR German Final CPI m/m -0.60% -0.60% Neutral 13th-15th CNY New Loans 3100B 1140B Positive 13th-15th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.60% 8.70% Negative 3:30pm EUR EU Economic Forecasts - - - 7:00pm USD CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20% Neutral   USD Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.10% Positive   USD Unemployment Claims 210K 202K Negative 9:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage -106B -137B Neutral 11:31pm USD 30-y Bond Auction - 2.34|2.5 - Impact: High | Low | Medium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here, a positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate against the US dollar. Technical chart source: TickerNews Source: TickerNews, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com, Reuters, and investing.com *DOS – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. )