BULLION Gold slightly up on spot demand, weak rupee; After Mixed U.S. Data. Trend Neutral
Review Yesterday, Gold prices witnessed a modest recovery as the market tracked overseas price trends on concerns of global economic growth and strong dollar in domestic markets. Gold futures for June delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, was little changed at $1,278.95 a troy ounce. Gold is now up nearly 1% from the new low for 2019 that it hit earlier this week. However, momentum remains limited, as a string of healthy earnings reports from the U.S. keeps risk appetite well fed. U.S. durable goods orders registered their best gain in eight months in March, underlining the recent role of the U.S. as an economic pillar of strength ahead of first quarter growth data out on Friday. However, the labor market weakened a touch, according to weekly jobless claims. Americans filing for employment benefits increased by the most in 19 months last week. However, that is a rebound from their lowest level since 1969, posted last week. Gold is having support at $1272.50-1270 and resistance at $1284-1292. Silver is having support at $14.80-14.75 while resistance at $15.04-15.20.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Today, Gold is having support at 31500-31350 while resistance at 31850-32057, silver is having support at 37300--36800 and resistance at 37750-38150. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
ENERGY Crude retreated on expectation that OPEC will raise output. Trend firm.
Review Yesterday, Crude oil prices retreated from the day high at settled at 4637 on Multi Commodity Exchange. Crude futures rose to 2019 highs earlier in the week after the US reported on Monday it would end all wavers for sanctions against Iran, demanding countries to halt oil imports from Iran from May or face punitive action from US. It traded slightly weak in international market WTI Crude settled at $65.89 while Brent settled at $74.57 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled weak at 4629 per barrel with the loss of 0.26%. Crude oil shows some profit booking from higher levels as U.S. Crude oil inventory rise and OPEC also hint for increase production. U.S. crude oil inventories surged more than expected last week, according to official government data released on Wednesday, although the report also indicated that OPEC may have already increased supply. The EIA said in its regular weekly report that crude oil inventories rose by 5.48 million barrels in the week to April 19. Rising inventory in U.S., OPEC hint for increase production and restore production in Venezuela will limits further gain in crude oil prices. We expect crude oil will trade in a range of $68.50-67.00.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Crude oil is having support at 4650-4580 while resistance at 4677-4726, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
BASE METAL Base metals traded slightly down on weak domestic demand. Trend volatile.
Review Yesterday, Copper prices moved down by 1.46% to Rs 444.40 per kg on Multi Commodity Exchange as speculators cut down their holdings amid a weak trend in base metals at the domestic market. However,copper and other base metals losses were limited, buoyed by hopes for a U.S.-China trade deal and stronger economic growth in top metals consumer China. The White House said that top U.S. officials will travel to Beijing for trade talks next week, with one leading official expressing optimism about striking a deal. Most industrial metals declined on Tuesday after comments by Chinese officials dampened hopes for more stimulus measures. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange drop 1.51% and settled at $6,347 in closing open-outcry activity. Today, Copper is having support around 443-435 while resistance at 455-458.50. Nickel will trade in a range of 855-888, Zinc will trade in a range of 222-227.50, and Lead will trade in a range of 132.50-137 while Aluminium trade in a range of 148.50-153.50.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Copper is having support at 442.50 and 438 while resistance at 455 and 458, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
Review Yesterday, Soybean May contract was trading a tad higher in Thursday afternoon session on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) on buying support. On Wednesday, the contract closed almost flat. Fresh buying by millers in physical market hoping for export demand for soymeal and limited arrivals also supported the future. However, lower prices in CBOT checked the upside. CBOT Soybean slipped further lower on Wednesday on fundamental pressure from large South American soybean harvests and uncertainty about feed demand from China as African swine fever spreads in the Asian country's hog herd. Soyoil May futures extended gains for the fifth session in a row in afternoon trade Thursday on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) on the back of improving demand in physical. During the last four sessions, the contract gained over 3.30%. Hopes of further increase in prices with the pickup in demand for ongoing marriage season and coming festivals also had a bullish impact on prices. Fears of further weakness in rupee supported the May contract as fresh imports would be costlier. However, higher imports during October-March capped the upside.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Soybean is having support around 3700-3655 while resistance at 3760-3780, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 742-738 while resistance at 751-756 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news.
Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 26-APR-2019
TECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRUSDINR (May Future)
Dollar/Rupee broke through the psychological 70.50 mark on Thursday helped by the overall dollar rally but further gains are likely to be capped by overseas fund inflows into local stocks. The Singapore dollar plunged as renewed growth slowdown concerns in Euro zone after a weak German economic data resulted in a greenback rally also added somewhat gain yesterday. Brent continued floating above $74.50 a barrel level, supported by tighter US sanctions against Iran and ongoing OPEC ledsupply cuts, dampening the impact of a sharp rise in crude oil inventories in the US.
Technical, USDINR was able to break its massive resistance 70.30 that has been holding since 9 April 2019. Near term trend expect to remain positive following the recent breakout and upside level could expect towards 70.70-70.85. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 70.20-70.00.
Trend –Neutral
GBPINR (May Future)
Pound traded at over two-month low against the US dollar Thursday following reports that British Prime Minister Theresa May plans to hold a vote on her Brexit legislation next week. UK prime minister May is set to let Members of Parliament (MPs) vote on a Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB), legislation which is separate to the withdrawal deal itself and must be passed for Brexit to be incorporated into UK law.
Technical, On the EOD chart, formation of doji candle stick is indicating for indecisiveness. Crucial support is seen at 90.85 and breakbelow only could test next support 90.45. On the upside, resistance is seen at 91.45-91.85.
Trend –Volatile
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY/ EARLIER TODAY
US initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped 37,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended April 20. The increase was the largest since early September 2017.
Japan unemployment rate rose to 2.5 percent, against economists' median forecast for 2.4 percent, figures from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed.
MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS SCHEDULE TODAY
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 30-APR-2019
NIFTYMARKET RECAP AND OUTLOOK
For the entire week, domestic markets remained highly volatile and stuck in a band due to absence of any fresh triggers. The index Nifty spot, oscillated in a narrow band of 250 points to close extremely flat near 11750 mark. Meanwhile, the Nifty Bank index too ended marginally in red and that below near 30K mark. The volatility index VIX surged towards 26% which was previously witnessed during the year 2016 but settled near 22 mark. On the sectoral front, NIFTY IT (+2.64%) and NIFTY ENERGY (+0.58%) counters supported the markets whereas the NIFTY AUTO (-5.34%) and NIFTY MIDCAP 50 (-2.32%) stocks remained the biggest laggards. From the F&O space, ULTRACEMO (+8.22%), MCX (+7.52%) and DCB (+6.43%) were the outperformers during the week went by.
Once again during the week, the index found support near the 11550 mark. Thus we maintain our stance that if the support of 11550 is held then we might witness an extended relief rally going ahead. A sustainable move above 11750 might pull the index towards all-time high or may be 12000 also. Although we are bullish for short term but we continue to maintain our medium term view that this rally should be used to book profits in long positions.In case of any downside, 11620 – 11550 levels are likely to attract buying interest in coming sessions. Due to election activities we expect some volatility and thus continue to advice traders to avoid overleveraged positions and maintain strict stop loss.Disclaimer)
Daily Commodity Research Report – 26th April 2019
BULLION
Gold slightly up on spot demand, weak rupee; After Mixed U.S. Data. Trend Neutral
Review
Yesterday, Gold prices witnessed a modest recovery as the market tracked overseas price trends on concerns of global economic growth and strong dollar in domestic markets. Gold futures for June delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, was little changed at $1,278.95 a troy ounce. Gold is now up nearly 1% from the new low for 2019 that it hit earlier this week. However, momentum remains limited, as a string of healthy earnings reports from the U.S. keeps risk appetite well fed. U.S. durable goods orders registered their best gain in eight months in March, underlining the recent role of the U.S. as an economic pillar of strength ahead of first quarter growth data out on Friday. However, the labor market weakened a touch, according to weekly jobless claims. Americans filing for employment benefits increased by the most in 19 months last week. However, that is a rebound from their lowest level since 1969, posted last week. Gold is having support at $1272.50-1270 and resistance at $1284-1292. Silver is having support at $14.80-14.75 while resistance at $15.04-15.20.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Today, Gold is having support at 31500-31350 while resistance at 31850-32057, silver is having support at 37300--36800 and resistance at 37750-38150. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
ENERGY
Crude retreated on expectation that OPEC will raise output. Trend firm.
Review
Yesterday, Crude oil prices retreated from the day high at settled at 4637 on Multi Commodity Exchange. Crude futures rose to 2019 highs earlier in the week after the US reported on Monday it would end all wavers for sanctions against Iran, demanding countries to halt oil imports from Iran from May or face punitive action from US. It traded slightly weak in international market WTI Crude settled at $65.89 while Brent settled at $74.57 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled weak at 4629 per barrel with the loss of 0.26%. Crude oil shows some profit booking from higher levels as U.S. Crude oil inventory rise and OPEC also hint for increase production. U.S. crude oil inventories surged more than expected last week, according to official government data released on Wednesday, although the report also indicated that OPEC may have already increased supply. The EIA said in its regular weekly report that crude oil inventories rose by 5.48 million barrels in the week to April 19. Rising inventory in U.S., OPEC hint for increase production and restore production in Venezuela will limits further gain in crude oil prices. We expect crude oil will trade in a range
of $68.50-67.00.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Crude oil is having support at 4650-4580 while resistance at 4677-4726, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.
BASE METAL
Base metals traded slightly down on weak domestic demand. Trend volatile.
Review
Yesterday, Copper prices moved down by 1.46% to Rs 444.40 per kg on Multi Commodity Exchange as speculators cut down their holdings amid a weak trend in base metals at the domestic market. However,copper and other base metals losses were limited, buoyed by hopes for a U.S.-China trade deal and stronger economic growth in top metals consumer China. The White House said that top U.S. officials will travel to Beijing for trade talks next week, with one leading official expressing optimism about striking a deal. Most industrial metals declined on Tuesday after comments by Chinese officials dampened hopes for more stimulus measures. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange drop 1.51% and settled at $6,347 in closing open-outcry activity. Today, Copper is having support around 443-435 while resistance at 455-458.50. Nickel will trade in a range of 855-888, Zinc will trade in a range of 222-227.50, and Lead will trade in a range of 132.50-137 while Aluminium trade in a range of 148.50-153.50.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Copper is having support at 442.50 and 438 while resistance at 455 and 458, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
AGRI COMMODITY
Weakness rupee supported Soybean May futures marginally up. Trend volatile.
Review
Yesterday, Soybean May contract was trading a tad higher in Thursday afternoon session on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) on buying support. On Wednesday, the contract closed almost flat. Fresh buying by millers in physical market hoping for export demand for soymeal and limited arrivals also supported the future. However, lower prices in CBOT checked the upside. CBOT Soybean slipped further lower on Wednesday on fundamental pressure from large South American soybean harvests and uncertainty about feed demand from China as African swine fever spreads in the Asian country's hog herd. Soyoil May futures extended gains for the fifth session in a row in afternoon trade Thursday on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) on the back of improving demand in physical. During the last four sessions, the contract gained over 3.30%. Hopes of further increase in prices with the pickup in demand for ongoing marriage season and coming festivals also had a bullish impact on prices. Fears of further weakness in rupee supported the May contract as fresh imports would be costlier. However, higher imports during October-March capped the upside.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Soybean is having support around 3700-3655 while resistance at 3760-3780, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 742-738 while resistance at 751-756 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.
News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news.
Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.
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Daily Currency Research Report – 26th April 2019
TECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRUSDINR (May Future) Dollar/Rupee broke through the psychological 70.50 mark on Thursday helped by the overall dollar rally but further gains are likely to be capped by overseas fund inflows into local stocks. The Singapore dollar plunged as renewed growth slowdown concerns in Euro zone after a weak German economic data resulted in a greenback rally also added somewhat gain yesterday. Brent continued floating above $74.50 a barrel level, supported by tighter US sanctions against Iran and ongoing OPEC ledsupply cuts, dampening the impact of a sharp rise in crude oil inventories in the US. Technical, USDINR was able to break its massive resistance 70.30 that has been holding since 9 April 2019. Near term trend expect to remain positive following the recent breakout and upside level could expect towards 70.70-70.85. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 70.20-70.00. Trend –Neutral GBPINR (May Future) Pound traded at over two-month low against the US dollar Thursday following reports that British Prime Minister Theresa May plans to hold a vote on her Brexit legislation next week. UK prime minister May is set to let Members of Parliament (MPs) vote on a Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB), legislation which is separate to the withdrawal deal itself and must be passed for Brexit to be incorporated into UK law. Technical, On the EOD chart, formation of doji candle stick is indicating for indecisiveness. Crucial support is seen at 90.85 and breakbelow only could test next support 90.45. On the upside, resistance is seen at 91.45-91.85. Trend –Volatile MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS RELEASED YESTERDAY/ EARLIER TODAY US initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped 37,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended April 20. The increase was the largest since early September 2017. Japan unemployment rate rose to 2.5 percent, against economists' median forecast for 2.4 percent, figures from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed. MAJOR ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS SCHEDULE TODAY Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)
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Weekly BSE & NSE Gainers & Losers - 22nd Apr to 26th Apr 2019
NIFTYMARKET RECAP AND OUTLOOK For the entire week, domestic markets remained highly volatile and stuck in a band due to absence of any fresh triggers. The index Nifty spot, oscillated in a narrow band of 250 points to close extremely flat near 11750 mark. Meanwhile, the Nifty Bank index too ended marginally in red and that below near 30K mark. The volatility index VIX surged towards 26% which was previously witnessed during the year 2016 but settled near 22 mark. On the sectoral front, NIFTY IT (+2.64%) and NIFTY ENERGY (+0.58%) counters supported the markets whereas the NIFTY AUTO (-5.34%) and NIFTY MIDCAP 50 (-2.32%) stocks remained the biggest laggards. From the F&O space, ULTRACEMO (+8.22%), MCX (+7.52%) and DCB (+6.43%) were the outperformers during the week went by. Once again during the week, the index found support near the 11550 mark. Thus we maintain our stance that if the support of 11550 is held then we might witness an extended relief rally going ahead. A sustainable move above 11750 might pull the index towards all-time high or may be 12000 also. Although we are bullish for short term but we continue to maintain our medium term view that this rally should be used to book profits in long positions.In case of any downside, 11620 – 11550 levels are likely to attract buying interest in coming sessions. Due to election activities we expect some volatility and thus continue to advice traders to avoid overleveraged positions and maintain strict stop loss.Disclaimer)