Daily Commodity Research Report – 23rd April 2019

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Commodity Daily Change & Technical levels 23d April 2019


BULLION

Gold prices steady on U.S.-Iran tensions; safe haven buying off 4 months low. Trend volatile

Review
Yesterday, both the precious metals were trades flat in international markets. Gold settled at $1277.60 per troy ounce down by 0.03% while silver settled at $14.97 per troy ounce up by 0.07%. Domestic markets were settled positive due to weakness in rupee. Gold settled at Rs.31596 per 10 gram with the gain of 0.42% and MCX Silver settled at 37381 per 1 kilogram with the gain of 0.41%. Gold prices off 2019 low after tension between U.S.-Iran. U.S. hints for complete ban on waiver of Iranian oil exports. Escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions boost gold safe haven bet. Rally in crude oil prices are also supporting gold prices in international markets. We expect Gold to hold $1275 levels on a closing basis in international markets and expect to test resistance of $1284-1292. Gold is having support at $1275-1266 and resistance at $1284-1292. Silver is having support at $14.80-14.64 while resistance at $15.10-15.24.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Commodity Bullion 23rd April 2019

Today, Gold is having support at 31504-31412 while resistance at 31734-31872, silver is having support at 37268-37155 and resistance at 37551-37721. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.


ENERGY
Crude oil prices rallied after U.S. ends all Iran sanctions waivers. Trend firm.

Review
Yesterday, Crude oil prices trade positive in international market WTI Crude settled at $65.55 while Brent settled at $74.12 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled positive at 4593 per barrel with the gain of 3.05%. Crude oil prices rallied and hover to 2019 high after Washington abruptly moved to end all Iran sanctions waivers by May, pressuring importers to stop buying from Tehran. The United States on Monday demanded that buyers of Iranian oil stop purchases by May 1 or face sanctions, ending six months of waivers which allowed Iran's eight biggest buyers, most of them in Asia, to continue buying limited volumes. Before the re-imposition of sanctions last year, Iran was the fourth-largest producer among the OPEC at almost 3 million barrels per day (bpd), but April exports have shrunk well below 1 million bpd, according to ship tracking and analyst data in Refinitiv. We expect recent geo-political tensions will support crude oil prices and it is expected to test resistance of $67.50. Crude oil is having support at $64.80-64.40 and resistance at $66.20-66.80.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Commodity Energy 23rd April 2019

Crude oil is having support at 4508-4442 while resistance at 4646-4698, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss.

 

BASE METAL
Base metals dip; on weak U.S. home sales data and strong dollar. Trend volatile.

Review
Yesterday, base metal prices settled weak in international market. 3M LME copper flat at $6463 per metric ton due to LME holiday. Base metals show weakness due to weak U.S. home sales data and strength in dollar index. U.S. home sales fell more than expected in March, pointing to continued weakness in the housing market despite declining mortgage rates and slowing house price gains. The National Association of Realtors said on Monday existing home sales dropped 4.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.21 million units last month. February’s sales pace was revised down to 5.48 million units from the previously reported 5.51 million units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast existing home sales would fall 3.8 percent to a rate of 5.30 million units last month. Fall in U.S. home sales more than expectations trigger sell button in base metals. We expect base metal prices remain volatile. Today, Copper is having support around 444-441 while resistance at 450-453. Nickel will trade in a range of 860-895, Zinc will trade in a range of 224-229, and Lead will trade in a range of 132-136 while Aluminium trade in a range of 148-152.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Commodity Base Metal 23rd April 2019

Copper is having support at 444 and 441 while resistance at 450 and 453, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.

 

AGRI COMMODITY
Mixed trend seen in agriculture commodities; strong dollar limits gain. Trend volatile.

Review
Yesterday, Soybean settled positive in domestic markets at 3715 per quintal with the gain of 0.41%. CBOT were settled at 878. Agriculture commodities shows mixed trend in yesterday’s session and recovers from day’s low. Strong dollar is putting pressure on global agriculture commodities. Oil complex seen pressure in international markets but weakness in rupee support prices in domestic markets. We expect agriculture commodities will took support at lower levels. Mixed trend seen at NCDEX in yesterday’s session, Chana settled negative with the loss of 1.88%, Castor seed settled negative with the loss of 1.77%. RM Seed closed positive with the gain of 0.80%. Guar Seed settled positive with the gain of 0.47% while Guar Gum settled with the gain of 0.53%. Spices pack settled mixed Jeera settled positive while Coriander and Turmeric settled negative. Cotton seed oilcake closed positive with the gain of 2.94%. Refined Soyoil closed positive with the gain of 1.36%. We expect Refined Soyoil to trade in a range of 730-744. We expect Castor seed and Guar complex will gain in today’s trade and Coriander could get support at 7000 levels.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Commodity Agri Commodity 23rd April 2019

Soybean is having support around 3680-3660 while resistance at 3740-3760, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 732-730 while resistance at 742-744 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss.

 

News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news.

 


Disclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.

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Share Market Today - 23rd April 2019

MARKET RECAP                                                                   Key Market Data Points After a long weekend, the domestic started yesterday’s session on a pessimistic note amid the on-going nervousness for the results of elections 2019. As the day progressed, selling intensified which forced the benchmarks to close with colossal loss. The index Nifty lost more than 150 points to close below 11600 mark. Meanwhile, the Nifty Bank index too remained under pressure and ended with a loss of more than 500 points. Right from the beginning of the session, market breadth remained strongly in the favour of declining counters. On the sectoral front, except NIFTY IT (+0.44%) all the other group indices closed in red. From the losers, NIFTY REALTY (-2.48%) and NIFTY PSU BANK (-2.45%) stocks remained under limelight. From the F&O space, DHFL (-11.94%), PCJEWELLER (-11.29%) and IBULHSGFIN (-9.21%) were the biggest losers. MARKET OUTLOOK Nifty Daily Chart:    Since last week, we have been stating about booking profits at higher levels in long positions. In line with the same we witnessed strong profit booking in the markets on the back of overbought conditions. The index Nifty yesterday underwent a major move on the downside which was in line with the expectation. However, this kind of magnitude was not expected. Now, at this juncture, the index is trading just above the previous decisive support level of 11550. If this support is held then we might witness a relief rally going ahead. In such scenario, 11700 – 11730 would act as strong resistance in the coming sessions. In case of further downside, breach of 11550 on closing basis might bring the markets into the ‘Sell on Rise’ mode. We continue to advice traders to avoid overleveraged positions and maintain strict stop loss.   Disclaimer)

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Neogen Chemicals Limited IPO 2019

ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS Issue Size of approximately 61,55,814 shares which consists of offer for sale of 29,00,000 shares by promoter & promoter group and fresh issue of approximately 32,55,814 shares (at upper price band). Proceeds from the issue shall be utilised towards : A) Repayment of borrowing – 20.5 Cr. B) Early redemption of 9.8% FRCPS – 11.5 Cr  C) Long term working capital – 20 Cr. Shareholding Pattern COMPANY HIGHLIGHTS Neogen Chemicals Ltd is a 27 year old company specialising in Bromine based compounds and Inorganic Lithium Salts. The company was founded by Mr H T Kanani, a chemical engineer from IIT Mumbai. Over the years Neogen have expanded its product portfolio and presently manufactures extensive range of specialty chemicals having application in various industries. As on September 30, 2018, Neogen have manufactured an aggregate of 187 products comprising 170 organic chemicals and 17 inorganic chemicals. Specialty organic chemical compounds find use in application industries such as pharmaceutical, agrochemical, flavour, fragrance and electronic-chemical. Neogen’s product offering in inorganic chemical segment primarily comprises Lithium Compounds. The Lithium Compounds manufactured are used in eco-friendly Vapour Absorption Machines (VAM) for cooling air/water/process equipment and find application in industries such as heating ventilation, air-conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, construction chemicals, pharmaceutical and specialty polymer. Neogen is presently, developing a green-field manufacturing unit in Dahej SEZ, in Gujarat and are also proposing to expand operations in Karakhadi, Vadodara.  Peer Comparison (FY 18) Rs. in Cr. Manufacturing Facilities and Capacity Utilisation Valuation Company’s operations are relatively on a much smaller scale in comparison to its listed players. Having regard to the issue size and its scale of operations, we would like to see FY20 earnings trajectory and growth prospects of Neogen for recommendation. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (“INSL”), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. INSL includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, employees and affiliates. INSL researches, aggregates and faithfully reproduces information available in public domain and other sources, considered to be reliable and makes them available for the recipient, though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by INSL independently and cannot be guaranteed. The third party research material included in this document does not represent the views of INSL and/or its officers, employees and the recipient must exercise independent judgement with regard to such content. This document has been published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 18 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. This document is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded or published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from INSL. This document is solely for information purpose and should not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. INSL does not take responsibility thereof. The research analysts of INSL have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. This document is based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock’s price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, accounting and/or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to recipients’ specific circumstances. INSL does not accept any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, assurances, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this document only. The opinions are subject to change without any notice. INSL directors/employees and its clients may have holdings in the stocks mentioned in the document. This report is based / focused on fundamentals of the Company and forward-looking statements as such, may not match with a report on a company’s technical analysis reportEach of the analysts named below hereby certifies that, with respect to each subject company and its securities for which the analyst is responsible in this report, (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies and securities, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report: Dharmesh KantFollowing table contains the disclosure of interest in order to adhere to utmost transparency in the matter:   INSL, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. This information is subject to change, as per applicable law, without any prior notice. INSL reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement, as may be required, from time to time. Research Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company One year Price history of the daily closing price of the securities covered in this note is available at www.nseindia.com and www.economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes. (Choose name of company in the list browse companies and select 1 year in icon YTD in the price chart))

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