Daily Commodity Research Report – 13th May 2019

CURRENCY PIVOT LEVELSCROSS CURRENCY UPDATESUSDINR 29 MAY ,2019 EXPIRY OPTION UPDATETECHNICAL VIEW ON MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRUSDINR (May Future)Dollar/rupee extended its recent gain and after testing day high 70.1950 settled at 70.1075 levels as concerns over escalating trade tension between the US-China supported safe haven demand for the dollar. Now, investors nervously await the start of two-day trade talks in Washington due later in the day to see if Chinese negotiators can convince the White House to back down on a threatened tariff hike due today. Local stocks ended at fresh two-month lows, their seventh straight session of decline also weighed on sentiment.Technical, On the EOD chart, USDINR continued its recent bullish move. It jumped towards 70.1950 and formed a long bullish candle stick. Near term momentum looks positive following the recent breakout on the chart and next upside target expect to be 70.50 and above. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 69.80-69.55.Trend –Neutral to positive GBPINR (May Future)Pound/Rupee remained under pressure on reports Brexit negotiation between the UK Conservatives and Labour parties may have collapsed. Both the Conservatives and Labour are attempting to agree on how the UK should leave the European Union (EU) - but with little signs of success. Reports showed that Labour Party negotiators have described the government as being disingenuous the matter of a customs union. Labour Party made the entry into a customs union as a red line, and according to reports, the Government is yet to move on the matter.Technical, Since, 9 April 2019 GBPINR struggling to break its massive resistance 91.70 and consolidating in between 91.50-90.50 levels. In near term 91.70 will act as a massive resistance which is coincided with triangle resistance and break above will create probability for 2-3% sharp bullish move. Failure of the break only could witness consolidation towards 90.70-90.50 again.Trend –Bullish above 91.70 Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today US goods trade deficit with China decreased 16.2 percent to $20.7 billion, the lowest level since March 2014, also as imports from the world's No. 2 economy fell 6.1 percent. Exports to China jumped 23.6 percent in March. US Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 228,000 for the week ended May 4, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Data for the prior week was unrevised. US producer price index for final demand increased 0.2 percent last month after jumping 0.6 percent in March. In the 12 months through April, the PPI increased 2.2 percent, matching March's rise. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negativeindicates currency  could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes. Source - investing.com, Reuters,forexlive & ticker news.Click Here to Download the ReportDisclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our currency opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report.)

BULLION Gold on fire as global equity melt down after China retaliate U.S. tariff. Trend firm. Review Yesterday, both the precious metals were traded positive in international markets. Gold settled at $1301.80 per troy ounce up by 1.17% while silver settled at $14.81 per troy ounce up by 0.20%. Domestic markets were also settled positive. Gold settled at Rs.32498 per 10 gram with the gain of 1.86% and MCX Silver settled at 37650 per 1 kilogram with the gain of 0.79%. Gold prices test $1300 in international markets and gained more than 1% in domestic markets weakness in rupee added gain after China retaliate U.S. tariff and hint to impose tariff on $60 billion U.S. goods and melt down in global equities. We have clearly mentioned in our earlier report that Gold will test $1300 again. Now, if the trade war intensifies between US-China then gold will remain in limelight on safe haven buying. We expect gold will remain positive and will test next hurdle of $1314. Gold is having support at $1292-1288 and resistance at $1308-1314. Silver is having support at $14.66-14.54 while resistance at $14.94-15.10. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Today, Gold is having support at 32061-31623 while resistance at 32737-32975, silver is having support at 37321-36991 and resistance at 37851-38051. Traders are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. ENERGY Crude oil unable to hold early gains on US-China trade war. Trend volatile. Review Yesterday, Crude oil prices settled slightly negative in international market WTI Crude settled at $61.04 while Brent settled at $70.23 per barrel. At MCX Crude oil settled negative at 4312 per barrel with the loss of 0.12%. Crude oil prices gains in early trade on Monday as attacks apparently carried out on two Saudi oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. Market turned negative as China retaliate on U.S. tariff and announce to impose tariff on $60 billion U.S. goods. Trade war intensifies between world’s two biggest economies, global equity markets were also crashed vertically after China announced to impose tariff. Saudi Arabia said two of its oil tankers were significantly damaged in “a sabotage attack” off the United Arab Emirates coast on Sunday, state-run Saudi Press Agency reported. The incident adds to regional tensions as the Trump administration raises pressure on Iran, which remains defiant about exporting its oil to the world despite U.S. sanctions. Crude oil prices remain volatile on geo-political tensions in gulf and trade war. Crude oil is having support at $60.80-60.40 and resistance at $61.60-62.20. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Crude oil is having support at 4241-4171 while resistance at 4428-4545, trades are suggested to trade in a range with strict stop loss. BASE METALBase metals slips; Lead hit 33 months low on deepening trade war. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, base metal prices settled negative in international market. 3M LME copper settled at $6022 per metric ton down by 2.05% from previous close. Base metal prices slides on Monday on deepening trade war between US-China. Lead prices sank to the lowest in nearly three years on Monday on worries that industrial metals demand would suffer from renewed U.S.-Chinese trade tensions. Aluminium saw the lightest losses after reports of reduced supply of raw material alumina from China. Metals slid along with other financial markets after the trade war between the world's top two economies ratcheted up a gear and China said it planned to boost import tariffs against $60 billion worth of U.S. goods. Trade frictions weigh on future demand expectations so you're naturally going to get caution on asset allocations for commodities on the whole and base metals in particular. Today, Copper is having support around 425-423 while resistance at 429-432. Nickel will trade in a range of 818-848, Zinc will trade in a range of 210-215, and Lead will trade in a range of 124-129 while Aluminium trade in a range of 146-151.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Copper is having support at 425 and 423 while resistance at 429 and 432, traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. AGRI COMMODITYAgriculture commodities gain as rupee weakens by around 1%. Trend volatile. ReviewYesterday, Soybean settled negative in domestic markets at 3680 per quintal with the loss of 0.54%. CBOT were settled at 804. Soybean prices shows weakness due to intensifying trade war between US-China and CBOT is also crashed. Other agriculture commodities shows strong comeback in domestic markets as supported by weakness in rupee and lower arrivals. Most of the commodities settled positive at NCDEX, Chana settled with the gain of 0.02%, Castor seed settled positive with the gain of 0.57%. RM Seed closed positive with the gain of 1.52%. Guar Seed settled negative with the loss of 0.10% while Guar Gum settled with the gain of 0.24%. Spices pack settled positive Coriander, Jeera and Turmeric closed with positive gain. Cotton seed oilcake closed positive with the gain of 2.57%. Investors are suggested to book profit in Cotton Seed oilcake around 2680. Cotton prices shows weakness and hit lower circuit impact of trade war will affect global demand of cotton. Refined Soyoil closed positive with the gain of 0.80%. We expect Refined Soyoil to trade in a range of 740-754.TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Soybean is having support around 3660-3640 while resistance at 3700-3740, Refined Soyaoil is having support at 742-740 while resistance at 752-754 traders are suggested to trade as per levels with strict stop loss. News Source: Bloomberg, investing.com, kitco.com and ticker news. Click Here to Download the ReportDisclaimer: This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report.)