Most of the PSU banks seem to be on the cusp of turnaround after years of rigorous overhaul of processes, systems and practices in place.
Canara Bank looks promising among the pack. In FY19, the bank bounced back into black.
Stellar Q1FY20 earnings : There was strong improvement in asset quality. Gross NPA was down to 8.80% as at June’19 from 11.08% YoY. Net NPA also improved to 5.35% (Q1FY20) from 6.91% (Q1FY19). Profit came in at Rs. 373 crore in Q1FY20 vis-a-vis Rs.313 crore in Q1FY19.
Business back on growth trajectory : Advances grew by 11.12% (YoY) in Q1FY20. In a falling interest rate scenario, we expect NIMs to be stable. Major driver being Retail Credit, which grew at 13.48% (YoY).
Pick up in monsoons, the government’s infra push, and slow but steady improvement in the economy is likely to maintain business growth momentum.
The board has passed the resolution for raising fresh equity of around Rs. 6,000 crore and unlocking value by disinvesting stake in Can Fin Homes, which at prevailing market price is worth around Rs. 1,400 crore, and will take care of capital needs for business growth.
The bank has delivered advances CAGR of 15.57% in the last 15 years, which grew from around Rs. 48,871 crore in 2004 to Rs. 4,28,114 crore by March’19. In the same period, CASA grew at a CAGR of 13.48%, which stands at around Rs. 6 lakh crore as at March’19.
Given the visibility, government’s determination and regulator’s approach, we believe Canara Bank is an attractive investment buy.
VALUATION
The bank looks attractively priced. In favourable times it has commanded valuation of 1.5x P/BV on TTM basis. In the last 10 years, the bank was plagued by bad loans which resulted in the stock trading consistently below 1x P/BV, with a mean at 0.93x. We expect the business to grow by a tad over 10% for next two years, while the asset quality improves. Assuming 10% traction in advances, stable margins, 50 bps sequential improvements in gross NPA & net NPA, and operating margin at 30%, we arrive at FY21E book value of Rs. 538 per share. Here, we have not taken into account potential impact of upgradation and/or recoveries of existing NPA or bad loans. Conservatively valuing the bank at 0.9x P/BV at FY21E per share, we arrive at a target price of Rs. 484, implying an upside return of around 118% from the current levels. We recommend to accumulate Canara Bank.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
ASSET QUALITY
The concerted efforts of the bank for improving the asset quality have yielded results, with gross NPA decreasing from 11.08% as at June’18 to 8.80% as at June’19. Net NPA reduced from 6.91% in June’18 to 5.35% in June’19. This marked improvement in asset quality was on the back of significant recoveries and upgradations.
The provision coverage ratio (PCR) improved considerably during the quarter from 60.6% in Q1 FY19 to 68.12% in Q1 FY20
Slippage has been contained substantially slippage ratio stood at 0.91% in Q1 FY20 vis-à-vis 1.19 in Q1 FY19
About the Company
Canara Bank is one of the largest public sector banks owned by the Government of India. It is headquartered in Bengaluru. It was established at Mangalore in 1906, and is one of the oldest public sector banks in the country. The government nationalized the bank in 1969. As of 31 March 2019, the bank had a network of 6,310 branches and more than 8,851 ATMs spread across 4,467 centers.
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 23-AUG-2019
About the Company
Tata Capital Limited ("TCL"), the flagship financial services company of the Tata Group, is a subsidiary of Tata Sons Private Limited and is registered with the Reserve Bank of India as a Systemically Important Non-Deposit Accepting Core Investment Company ("CIC").
TCL group has a diversified product portfolio with a presence in both the wholesale and retail finance segments.
In the previous tranche of preference shares, CRISIL had assigned ‘AAA/Stable’ rating on preference shares of ₹40 crore of Tata Capital Limited (TCL). CRISIL has also reaffirmed its ratings on the company's other debt instruments and long term bank facilities at 'CRISIL AAA/Stable/CRISIL A1+'.
About Preference SharesPreference shares are one of the special types of share capital having fixed rate of dividend and they carry preferential rights over ordinary equity shares in sharing of profits and also claims over assets of the firm. It is ranked between equity and debt as far as priority of repayment of capital is concerned. Some of the key features of preference shares are:
Fixed Dividends - Preference shares carry a fixed rate of interest on the face value for payout of dividends
Preferential Rights - Preference shares have preferential rights over ordinary equity shares with respect to sharing of income and claims on assets. Preference share dividend has to be paid before any dividend payment to ordinary equity shares. Similarly, at the time of liquidation also, these shares would be paid before equity shares
No Voting Rights - These shares have no voting rights and the holders do not have any say in the management of the company
Fixed Maturity - Similar to a debt instrument, preference shares also have fixed maturity date
Dividends Paid out of Profits - Preference dividend is paid out of the divisible profits of the company. A company is not bound to pay dividend on preference shares if its profits in a particular year are insufficient. In case of cumulative preference shares, dividends are postponed to future years
* In pursuance of Section 43 of the Act, the CRPS shall carry a preferential right with respect to (a) payment of dividend calculated at a fixed rate, which may either be free of or subject to income tax; and (b) repayment, in the case of a winding up or repayment of capital, of the amount of the share capital paid-up or deemed to have been paid-up, whether or not, there is a preferential right to the payment of any fixed premium. Note: Investors are advised to consult their tax advisor before investing in any financial instrument.
Who Can Apply: Scheduled Commercial Banks; Co-operative Banks; Regional Rural Banks; Insurance Companies; Mutual Funds; Indian Companies and Bodies Corporate registered in India; Trust; Resident Individual Investors; Hindu Undivided Families through Karta; Limited Liability Partnerships; Public Financial.
Who Cannot Apply: Minors without guardians’ name; Association of Persons, Foreign Portfolio Investors; Qualified Foreign Investors; Foreign Nationals; Non-Resident Indians; Persons resident outside India; Venture Capital Funds; Alternative Investment Funds, Overseas Corporate Bodies; Foreign Institutional Investors; Multilateral and Bilateral Financial Institutions; Bodies Corporate incorporated outside India.
Disclaimer: This document is prepared by the Research Division of IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd (The Company) on the publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst no action has been taken based upon this information. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd does not warranty either expressly of impliedly, the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information provided herein. Neither IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd nor any of its employees / Directors / authorized representatives shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special consequential, punitive or exemplary damages including lost profits arising in any way from the information contained in this material, and hereby disclaims any liability with regard to the same. This report is disseminated for the information of authorized recipients only and is not to be relied upon or taken is substitution for the exercise of due diligence and judgment by any recipient. This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice; investor should seek independent financial advice with respect to the merits and risks involved in any of the matters concerning investment in the Schemes / products mentioned in the report.)
Posted by Mehul Kothari | Published on 23-SEP-2019
Impact of Tax Proposals on key sectors: “Setup in India” - An invitation letter to global investors
The tax break announcements today were a big shot in the arm though a tax reform. However, one needs to see this with a bit of pragmatism. Several key sectors like Cement, Power, Steel, Mining have incentives from capex under sections such as 80 IA; while sectors like Auto are broadly between 27-32% - but need efforts on the demand side to deliver growth. Hence the beneficiaries of these will be limited to select sectors and companies.The government had already moved to 25% tax (in Budget June 2019) for companies having revenues upto Rs 400 crores which, as per government data, would have covered 99.3% of the companies. We analysed the data of companies listed on BSE with turnover greater than Rs 1 cr – these totalled to 6082 companies – and the total tax payout as of their financial year end accounted to totally Rs 202,592 cr (on a standalone basis)
4874 companies (80% of companies) with turnover from Rs 1cr – 400cr, contribute to 2.4% of the total tax paid by these – the companies had already received the benefit in Budget in June 2019 for 25% tax
1207 companies (20% of the companies) with turnover of Rs 400 cr and above contribute to 97.6% of the total tax paid i.e. Rs.197,737cr – and are now falling under the purview of the new benefit, subject to incentives
The move is a positive reform for BFSI stocks – “the biggest beneficiaries” - (though not intended for them alone), as they will see a direct reduction in their tax outgo, which will directly and positively impact ROEs and internal accruals, which in turn will add to the core Tier 1 capital. There will be write down of deferred tax assets for companies, hence will impact P&L to that extent. Net impact from tax benefit announced will be lower this year i.e. FY20 in a scenario of DTA writeback and higher from FY21 onwards.These reforms are definitely sentimentally positive and a signal to the government’s inclination to addressing issues of various industries. However we expect fiscal deficit to be closely watched and would need fast paced efforts from the government to address the same in the form of large divestments in PSUs, listing of large unlisted PSUs such as IRCTC and divestment of land holding under central government amongst others.Expect “Make in India” to witness a significant boost with competitive tax rates in South East Asia.The tax cut to 15%+ surcharge for new manufacturing units / setups, makes India’s tax rate more competitive than some of its Asian peers (like China and Malaysia). It’s virtually an invitation to global corporations to setup their operations in India at the most competitive tax rate than peers.India is now even more competitive than Bangladesh, which has been quite competitive in textiles. India however would be lesser attractive than Vietnam, which recently had cut its tax rates to woo large corporates affected by the US-China trade dispute. The President of the US-India Strategic and Partnership Forum (USISPF) Mukesh Aghi in recent media interactions indicated that they are in talks with ~200 American companies, which are willing to move their manufacturing base from China to India. Also, in June 2019, as per a survey conducted by quality control and supply chain auditor QIMA on companies leaving China, 80% of American and 67% European Union companies have showed their intent. With a reduction in the corporate tax rates, gates for India open up as India would now look attractive. Also, higher labour costs in China make India a better alternative.
Country
Corporate tax rate
South Korea
11.00-24.20%
Taiwan
17.00%
Malaysia
24.00%
Thailand
20.00%
Indonesia
12.50- 25.00%
China
25.00%
India
25.17% (15%+ for new setups)
Vietnam
20.00%
Click here to download the report
Research Desk
Disclaimer: This document is STRICTLY for authorised recipients only and is prepared for information purposes only. The information provided herein, we believe, is from reliable sources. IndiaNivesh is not liable for the accuracy of the source data as well as the results of the calculations based on the same. We do not claim that the data provided herein is accurate and complete in all respects. This is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell securities. No action is intended to be taken by the recipients based on this document. The recipients may take their decisions based on their own judgement and independent advice that they may receive before making any investment or disinvestment decisions. The recipients are advised not to take any decision only on the basis of this document. No portion of this document should be printed, reprinted, redistributed, reproduced, duplicated or sold.
Disclaimer: This document is the property of IndiaNivesh Group (IndiaNivesh) and for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only.)
Canara Bank Stock Prices – Shareholding Pattern, Charts & Financial Summary
Investment Rationale
VALUATION
The bank looks attractively priced. In favourable times it has commanded valuation of 1.5x P/BV on TTM basis. In the last 10 years, the bank was plagued by bad loans which resulted in the stock trading consistently below 1x P/BV, with a mean at 0.93x. We expect the business to grow by a tad over 10% for next two years, while the asset quality improves. Assuming 10% traction in advances, stable margins, 50 bps sequential improvements in gross NPA & net NPA, and operating margin at 30%, we arrive at FY21E book value of Rs. 538 per share. Here, we have not taken into account potential impact of upgradation and/or recoveries of existing NPA or bad loans. Conservatively valuing the bank at 0.9x P/BV at FY21E per share, we arrive at a target price of Rs. 484, implying an upside return of around 118% from the current levels. We recommend to accumulate Canara Bank.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
ASSET QUALITY
About the Company
Canara Bank is one of the largest public sector banks owned by the Government of India. It is headquartered in Bengaluru. It was established at Mangalore in 1906, and is one of the oldest public sector banks in the country. The government nationalized the bank in 1969. As of 31 March 2019, the bank had a network of 6,310 branches and more than 8,851 ATMs spread across 4,467 centers.
Previous Story
Tata Capital Ltd – Preference Shares Issue 2019
About the Company Tata Capital Limited ("TCL"), the flagship financial services company of the Tata Group, is a subsidiary of Tata Sons Private Limited and is registered with the Reserve Bank of India as a Systemically Important Non-Deposit Accepting Core Investment Company ("CIC"). TCL group has a diversified product portfolio with a presence in both the wholesale and retail finance segments. In the previous tranche of preference shares, CRISIL had assigned ‘AAA/Stable’ rating on preference shares of ₹40 crore of Tata Capital Limited (TCL). CRISIL has also reaffirmed its ratings on the company's other debt instruments and long term bank facilities at 'CRISIL AAA/Stable/CRISIL A1+'. About Preference SharesPreference shares are one of the special types of share capital having fixed rate of dividend and they carry preferential rights over ordinary equity shares in sharing of profits and also claims over assets of the firm. It is ranked between equity and debt as far as priority of repayment of capital is concerned. Some of the key features of preference shares are: Fixed Dividends - Preference shares carry a fixed rate of interest on the face value for payout of dividends Preferential Rights - Preference shares have preferential rights over ordinary equity shares with respect to sharing of income and claims on assets. Preference share dividend has to be paid before any dividend payment to ordinary equity shares. Similarly, at the time of liquidation also, these shares would be paid before equity shares No Voting Rights - These shares have no voting rights and the holders do not have any say in the management of the company Fixed Maturity - Similar to a debt instrument, preference shares also have fixed maturity date Dividends Paid out of Profits - Preference dividend is paid out of the divisible profits of the company. A company is not bound to pay dividend on preference shares if its profits in a particular year are insufficient. In case of cumulative preference shares, dividends are postponed to future years * In pursuance of Section 43 of the Act, the CRPS shall carry a preferential right with respect to (a) payment of dividend calculated at a fixed rate, which may either be free of or subject to income tax; and (b) repayment, in the case of a winding up or repayment of capital, of the amount of the share capital paid-up or deemed to have been paid-up, whether or not, there is a preferential right to the payment of any fixed premium. Note: Investors are advised to consult their tax advisor before investing in any financial instrument. Who Can Apply: Scheduled Commercial Banks; Co-operative Banks; Regional Rural Banks; Insurance Companies; Mutual Funds; Indian Companies and Bodies Corporate registered in India; Trust; Resident Individual Investors; Hindu Undivided Families through Karta; Limited Liability Partnerships; Public Financial. Who Cannot Apply: Minors without guardians’ name; Association of Persons, Foreign Portfolio Investors; Qualified Foreign Investors; Foreign Nationals; Non-Resident Indians; Persons resident outside India; Venture Capital Funds; Alternative Investment Funds, Overseas Corporate Bodies; Foreign Institutional Investors; Multilateral and Bilateral Financial Institutions; Bodies Corporate incorporated outside India. Disclaimer: This document is prepared by the Research Division of IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd (The Company) on the publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst no action has been taken based upon this information. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd does not warranty either expressly of impliedly, the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information provided herein. Neither IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd nor any of its employees / Directors / authorized representatives shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special consequential, punitive or exemplary damages including lost profits arising in any way from the information contained in this material, and hereby disclaims any liability with regard to the same. This report is disseminated for the information of authorized recipients only and is not to be relied upon or taken is substitution for the exercise of due diligence and judgment by any recipient. This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice; investor should seek independent financial advice with respect to the merits and risks involved in any of the matters concerning investment in the Schemes / products mentioned in the report.)
Next Story
Corporate Tax Cut - Impact of Tax Proposals on Key sectors
Impact of Tax Proposals on key sectors: “Setup in India” - An invitation letter to global investors The tax break announcements today were a big shot in the arm though a tax reform. However, one needs to see this with a bit of pragmatism. Several key sectors like Cement, Power, Steel, Mining have incentives from capex under sections such as 80 IA; while sectors like Auto are broadly between 27-32% - but need efforts on the demand side to deliver growth. Hence the beneficiaries of these will be limited to select sectors and companies.The government had already moved to 25% tax (in Budget June 2019) for companies having revenues upto Rs 400 crores which, as per government data, would have covered 99.3% of the companies. We analysed the data of companies listed on BSE with turnover greater than Rs 1 cr – these totalled to 6082 companies – and the total tax payout as of their financial year end accounted to totally Rs 202,592 cr (on a standalone basis) 4874 companies (80% of companies) with turnover from Rs 1cr – 400cr, contribute to 2.4% of the total tax paid by these – the companies had already received the benefit in Budget in June 2019 for 25% tax 1207 companies (20% of the companies) with turnover of Rs 400 cr and above contribute to 97.6% of the total tax paid i.e. Rs.197,737cr – and are now falling under the purview of the new benefit, subject to incentives The move is a positive reform for BFSI stocks – “the biggest beneficiaries” - (though not intended for them alone), as they will see a direct reduction in their tax outgo, which will directly and positively impact ROEs and internal accruals, which in turn will add to the core Tier 1 capital. There will be write down of deferred tax assets for companies, hence will impact P&L to that extent. Net impact from tax benefit announced will be lower this year i.e. FY20 in a scenario of DTA writeback and higher from FY21 onwards.These reforms are definitely sentimentally positive and a signal to the government’s inclination to addressing issues of various industries. However we expect fiscal deficit to be closely watched and would need fast paced efforts from the government to address the same in the form of large divestments in PSUs, listing of large unlisted PSUs such as IRCTC and divestment of land holding under central government amongst others.Expect “Make in India” to witness a significant boost with competitive tax rates in South East Asia.The tax cut to 15%+ surcharge for new manufacturing units / setups, makes India’s tax rate more competitive than some of its Asian peers (like China and Malaysia). It’s virtually an invitation to global corporations to setup their operations in India at the most competitive tax rate than peers.India is now even more competitive than Bangladesh, which has been quite competitive in textiles. India however would be lesser attractive than Vietnam, which recently had cut its tax rates to woo large corporates affected by the US-China trade dispute. The President of the US-India Strategic and Partnership Forum (USISPF) Mukesh Aghi in recent media interactions indicated that they are in talks with ~200 American companies, which are willing to move their manufacturing base from China to India. Also, in June 2019, as per a survey conducted by quality control and supply chain auditor QIMA on companies leaving China, 80% of American and 67% European Union companies have showed their intent. With a reduction in the corporate tax rates, gates for India open up as India would now look attractive. Also, higher labour costs in China make India a better alternative. Country Corporate tax rate South Korea 11.00-24.20% Taiwan 17.00% Malaysia 24.00% Thailand 20.00% Indonesia 12.50- 25.00% China 25.00% India 25.17% (15%+ for new setups) Vietnam 20.00% Click here to download the report Research Desk Disclaimer: This document is STRICTLY for authorised recipients only and is prepared for information purposes only. The information provided herein, we believe, is from reliable sources. IndiaNivesh is not liable for the accuracy of the source data as well as the results of the calculations based on the same. We do not claim that the data provided herein is accurate and complete in all respects. This is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell securities. No action is intended to be taken by the recipients based on this document. The recipients may take their decisions based on their own judgement and independent advice that they may receive before making any investment or disinvestment decisions. The recipients are advised not to take any decision only on the basis of this document. No portion of this document should be printed, reprinted, redistributed, reproduced, duplicated or sold. Disclaimer: This document is the property of IndiaNivesh Group (IndiaNivesh) and for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only.)